Scalable and efficient graph colouring in 3 dimensions using emergence engineering principles

This paper describes ways in which emergence engineering principles can be applied to the development of distributed applications. A distributed solution to the graph-colouring problem is used as a vehicle to illustrate some novel techniques. Each node acts autonomously to colour itself based only on its local view of its neighbourhood, and following a simple set of carefully tuned rules. Randomness breaks symmetry and thus enhances stability. The algorithm has been developed to enable self-configuration in wireless sensor networks, and to reflect real-world configurations the algorithm operates with 3 dimensional topologies (reflecting the propagation of radio waves and the placement of sensors in buildings, bridge structures etc.). The algorithm’s performance is evaluated and results presented. It is shown to be simultaneously highly stable and scalable whilst achieving low convergence times. The use of eavesdropping gives rise to low interaction complexity and high efficiency in terms of the communication overheads.

A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development

Sustainable development depends on maintaining ecosystem services which are concentrated in coastal marine and estuarine ecosystems. Analyses of the science needed to manage human uses of ecosystem services have concentrated on terrestrial ecosystems. Our focus is on the provision of multidisciplinary data needed to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) for maintaining coastal ecosystem services based on comparative ecosystem analyses. Key indicators of pressures on coastal ecosystems, ecosystem states and the impacts of changes in states on services are identified for monitoring and analysis at a global coastal network of sentinel sites nested in the ocean-climate observing system. Biodiversity is targeted as the “master” indicator because of its importance to a broad spectrum of services. Ultimately, successful implementation of EBAs will depend on establishing integrated, holistic approaches to ocean governance that oversee the development of integrated, operational ocean observing systems based on the data and information requirements specified by a broad spectrum of stakeholders for sustainable development. Sustained engagement of such a spectrum of stakeholders on a global scale is not feasible. The global coastal network will need to be customized locally and regionally based on priorities established by stakeholders in their respective regions. The E.U. Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the U.S. Recommendations of the Interagency Ocean Policy Task Force are important examples of emerging regional scale approaches. The effectiveness of these policies will depend on the co-evolution of ocean policy and the observing system under the auspices of integrated ocean governance.

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0 degrees and 90 degrees W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2 degrees C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27 degrees to 1.08 degrees C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Ocean acidification shows negligible impacts on high-latitude bacterial community structure in coastal pelagic mesocosms

The impact of ocean acidification and carbonation on microbial community structure was assessed during a large-scale in situ costal pelagic mesocosm study, included as part of the EPOCA 2010 Arctic campaign. The mesocosm experiment included ambient conditions (fjord) and nine mesocosms with pCO(2) levels ranging from similar to 145 to similar to 1420 mu atm. Samples for the present study were collected at ten time points (t-1, t1, t5, t7, t12, t14, t18, t22, t26 to t28) in seven treatments (ambient fjord (similar to 145), 2x similar to 185, similar to 270, similar to 685, similar to 820, similar to 1050 mu atm) and were analysed for "small" and "large" size fraction microbial community composition using 16S rRNA (ribosomal ribonucleic acid) amplicon sequencing. This high-throughput sequencing analysis produced similar to 20 000 000 16S rRNA V4 reads, which comprised 7000OTUs. The main variables structuring these communities were sample origins (fjord or mesocosms) and the community size fraction (small or large size fraction). The community was significantly different between the unenclosed fjord water and enclosed mesocosms (both control and elevated CO2 treatments) after nutrients were added to the mesocosms, suggesting that the addition of nutrients is the primary driver of the change in mesocosm community structure. The relative importance of each structuring variable depended greatly on the time at which the community was sampled in relation to the phytoplankton bloom. The sampling strategy of separating the small and large size fraction was the second most important factor for community structure. When the small and large size fraction bacteria were analysed separately at different time points, the only taxon pCO(2) was found to significantly affect were the Gammaproteobacteria after nutrient addition. Finally, pCO(2) treatment was found to be significantly correlated (non-linear) with 15 rare taxa, most of which increased in abundance with higher CO2.

Global sea-to-air flux climatology for bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide

Volatile halogenated organic compounds containing bromine and iodine, which are naturally produced in the ocean, are involved in ozone depletion in both the troposphere and stratosphere. Three prominent compounds transporting large amounts of marine halogens into the atmosphere are bromoform (CHBr3), dibromomethane (CH2Br2) and methyl iodide (CH3I). The input of marine halogens to the stratosphere has been estimated from observations and modelling studies using low-resolution oceanic emission scenarios derived from top-down approaches. In order to improve emission inventory estimates, we calculate data-based high resolution global sea-to-air flux estimates of these compounds from surface observations within the HalOcAt (Halocarbons in the Ocean and Atmosphere) database (https://halocat.geomar.de/). Global maps of marine and atmospheric surface concentrations are derived from the data which are divided into coastal, shelf and open ocean regions. Considering physical and biogeochemical characteristics of ocean and atmosphere, the open ocean water and atmosphere data are classified into 21 regions. The available data are interpolated onto a 1 degrees x 1 degrees grid while missing grid values are interpolated with latitudinal and longitudinal dependent regression techniques reflecting the compounds' distributions. With the generated surface concentration climatologies for the ocean and atmosphere, global sea-to-air concentration gradients and sea-to-air fluxes are calculated. Based on these calculations we estimate a total global flux of 1.5/2.5 Gmol Br yr(-1) for CHBr3, 0.78/0.98 Gmol Br yr(-1) for CH2Br2 and 1.24/1.45 Gmol Br yr(-1) for CH3I (robust fit/ordinary least squares regression techniques). Contrary to recent studies, negative fluxes occur in each sea-to-air flux climatology, mainly in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. "Hot spots" for global polybromomethane emissions are located in the equatorial region, whereas methyl iodide emissions are enhanced in the subtropical gyre regions. Inter-annual and seasonal variation is contained within our flux calculations for all three compounds. Compared to earlier studies, our global fluxes are at the lower end of estimates, especially for bromoform. An under-representation of coastal emissions and of extreme events in our estimate might explain the mismatch between our bottom-up emission estimate and top-down approaches.

Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

During recent decades, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. Additionally, shifts in the Arctic's atmospheric pressure field have altered surface winds, ocean circulation, and freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre. These processes have resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean, including the emergence of great salinity anomalies propagating throughout the North Atlantic. Here, we link these variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the regime shifts observed in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems. Specifically, we hypothesize that the corresponding salinity anomalies, both negative and positive, alter the timing and extent of water-column stratification, thereby impacting the production and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher-trophic-level consumers. Should this hypothesis hold up to critical evaluation, it has the potential to fundamentally alter our current understanding of the processes forcing the dynamics of Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems.

The meso-scale response of subarctic North Pacific seabird community structure to lower trophic level abundance and diversity

Understanding the mechanisms that structure communities and influence biodiversity are fundamental goals of ecology. To test the hypothesis that the abundance and diversity of upper-trophic level predators (seabirds) is related to the underlying abundance and diversity of their prey (zooplankton) and ecosystem-wide energy availability (primary production), we initiated a monitoring program in 2002 that jointly and repeatedly surveys seabird and zooplankton populations across a 7,500 km British Columbia-Bering Sea-Japan transect. Seabird distributions were recorded by a single observer (MH) using a strip-width technique, mesozooplankton samples were collected with a Continuous Plankton Recorder, and primary production levels were derived using the appropriate satellite parameters and the Vertically Generalized Production Model (Behrenfeld and Falkowski 1997). Each trophic level showed clear spatio-temporal patterns over the course of the study. The strongest relationship between seabird abundance and diversity and the lower trophic levels was observed in March/April ('spring') and significant relationships were also found through June/July ('summer'). No discernable relationships were observed during the September/October ('fall') months. Overall, mesozooplankton abundance and biomass explained the dominant portion of seabird abundance and diversity indices (richness, Simpson's Index, and evenness), while primary production was only related to seabird richness. These findings underscore the notion that perturbations of ocean productivity and lower trophic level ecosystem constituents influenced by climate change, such as shifts in timing (phenology) and synchronicity (match-mismatch), could impart far-reaching consequences throughout the marine food web.

In hot water: zooplankton and climate change

An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.

Climate change and food safety: A review

Climate change and variability may have an impact on the occurrence of food safety hazards at various stages of the food chain, from primary production through to consumption. There are multiple pathways through which climate related factors may impact food safety including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, and changes in contaminants’ transport pathways among others. Climate change may also affect socio-economic aspects related to food systems such as agriculture, animal production, global trade, demographics and human behaviour which all influence food safety. This paper reviews the potential impacts of predicted changes in climate on food contamination and food safety at various stages of the food chain and identifies adaptation strategies and research priorities to address food safety implications of climate change. The paper concludes that there is a need for intersectoral and international cooperation to better understand the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing adaptation strategies to address emerging risks associated with climate change.

Satellite-detected fluorescence reveals global physiology of ocean phytoplankton

Phytoplankton photosynthesis links global ocean biology and climate-driven fluctuations in the physical environment. These interactions are largely expressed through changes in phytoplankton physiology, but physiological status has proven extremely challenging to characterize globally. Phytoplankton fluorescence does provide a rich source of physiological information long exploited in laboratory and field studies, and is now observed from space. Here we evaluate the physiological underpinnings of global variations in satellite-based phytoplankton chlorophyll fluorescence. The three dominant factors influencing fluorescence distributions are chlorophyll concentration, pigment packaging effects on light absorption, and light-dependent energy-quenching processes. After accounting for these three factors, resultant global distributions of quenching-corrected fluorescence quantum yields reveal a striking consistency with anticipated patterns of iron availability. High fluorescence quantum yields are typically found in low iron waters, while low quantum yields dominate regions where other environmental factors are most limiting to phytoplankton growth. Specific properties of photosynthetic membranes are discussed that provide a mechanistic view linking iron stress to satellite-detected fluorescence. Our results present satellite-based fluorescence as a valuable tool for evaluating nutrient stress predictions in ocean ecosystem models and give the first synoptic observational evidence that iron plays an important role in seasonal phytoplankton dynamics of the Indian Ocean. Satellite fluorescence may also provide a path for monitoring climate-phytoplankton physiology interactions and improving descriptions of phytoplankton light use efficiencies in ocean productivity models.

Have we been underestimating the effects of ocean acidification in zooplankton?

Understanding how copepods may respond to ocean acidification (OA) is critical for risk assessments of ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. The perception that copepods are insensitive to OA is largely based on experiments with adult females. Their apparent resilience to increased carbon dioxide (pCO2 ) concentrations has supported the view that copepods are 'winners' under OA. Here, we show that this conclusion is not robust, that sensitivity across different life stages is significantly misrepresented by studies solely using adult females. Stage-specific responses to pCO2 (385-6000 μatm) were studied across different life stages of a calanoid copepod, monitoring for lethal and sublethal responses. Mortality rates varied significantly across the different life stages, with nauplii showing the highest lethal effects; nauplii mortality rates increased threefold when pCO2 concentrations reached 1000 μatm (year 2100 scenario) with LC50 at 1084 μatm pCO2 . In comparison, eggs, early copepodite stages, and adult males and females were not affected lethally until pCO2 concentrations ≥3000 μatm. Adverse effects on reproduction were found, with >35% decline in nauplii recruitment at 1000 μatm pCO2 . This suppression of reproductive scope, coupled with the decreased survival of early stage progeny at this pCO2 concentration, has clear potential to damage population growth dynamics in this species. The disparity in responses seen across the different developmental stages emphasizes the need for a holistic life-cycle approach to make species-level projections to climate change. Significant misrepresentation and error propagation can develop from studies which attempt to project outcomes to future OA conditions solely based on single life history stage exposures.

Space-based lidar measurements of global ocean carbon stocks

Global ocean phytoplankton biomass (C-phyto) and total particulate organic carbon (POC) stocks have largely been characterized from space using passive ocean color measurements. A space-based light detection and ranging (lidar) system can provide valuable complementary observations for C-phyto and POC assessments, with benefits including day-night sampling, observations through absorbing aerosols and thin cloud layers, and capabilities for vertical profiling through the water column. Here we use measurements from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to quantify global C-phyto and POC from retrievals of subsurface particulate backscatter coefficients (b(bp)). CALIOP b(bp) data compare favorably with airborne, ship-based, and passive ocean data and yield global average mixed-layer standing stocks of 0.44 Pg C for C-phyto and 1.9 Pg for POC. CALIOP-based C-phyto and POC data exhibit global distributions and seasonal variations consistent with ocean plankton ecology. Our findings support the use of spaceborne lidar measurements for advancing understanding of global plankton systems.

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on an intertidal meiobenthic community

In the near future, the marine environment is likely to be subjected to simultaneous increases in temperature and decreased pH. The potential effects of these changes on intertidal, meiofaunal assemblages were investigated using a mesocosm experiment. Artificial Substrate Units containing meiofauna from the extreme low intertidal zone were exposed for 60 days to eight experimental treatments (four replicates for each treatment) comprising four pH levels: 8.0 (ambient control), 7.7 & 7.3 (predicted changes associated with ocean acidification), and 6.7 (CO2 point-source leakage from geological storage), crossed with two temperatures: 12 °C (ambient control) and 16 °C (predicted). Community structure, measured using major meiofauna taxa was significantly affected by pH and temperature. Copepods and copepodites showed the greatest decline in abundance in response to low pH and elevated temperature. Nematodes increased in abundance in response to low pH and temperature rise, possibly caused by decreased predation and competition for food owing to the declining macrofauna density. Nematode species composition changed significantly between the different treatments, and was affected by both seawater acidification and warming. Estimated nematode species diversity, species evenness, and the maturity index, were substantially lower at 16 °C, whereas trophic diversity was slightly higher at 16 °C except at pH 6.7. This study has demonstrated that the combination of elevated levels of CO2 and ocean warming may have substantial effects on structural and functional characteristics of meiofaunal and nematode communities, and that single stressor experiments are unlikely to encompass the complexity of abiotic and biotic interactions. At the same time, ecological interactions may lead to complex community responses to pH and temperature changes in the interstitial environment

Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.