Modelling Pinus pinea forest management to attain natural regeneration under present and future climatic scenarios

Natural regeneration-based silviculture has been increasingly regarded as a reliable option in sustainable forest management. However, successful natural regeneration is not always easy to achieve. Recently, new concerns have arisen because of changing future climate. To date, regeneration models have proved helpful in decision-making concerning natural regeneration. The implementation of such models into optimization routines is a promising approach in providing forest managers with accurate tools for forest planning. In the present study, we present a stochastic multistage regeneration model for Pinus pinea L. managed woodlands in Central Spain, where regeneration has been historically unsuccessful. The model is able to quantify recruitment under different silviculture alternatives and varying climatic scenarios, with further application to optimize management scheduling. The regeneration process in the species showed high between-year variation, with all subprocesses (seed production, dispersal, germination, predation, and seedling survival) having the potential to become bottlenecks. However, model simulations demonstrate that current intensive management is responsible for regeneration failure in the long term. Specifically, stand densities at rotation age are too low to guarantee adequate dispersal, the optimal density of seed-producing trees being around 150 stems·ha−1. In addition, rotation length needs to be extended up to 120 years to benefit from the higher seed production of older trees. Stochastic optimization confirms these results. Regeneration does not appear to worsen under climate change conditions; the species exhibiting resilience worthy of broader consideration in Mediterranean silviculture.

Modelo del sistema de gestión de la calidad y el desempeño organizacional en la producción de petróleo

El proceso de cambio de una sociedad industrial a una sociedad del conocimiento, que experimenta el mundo globalizado en el siglo XXI, induce a las empresas y organizaciones a desarrollar ventajas competitivas y sostenibles basadas en sus activos intangibles, entre los cuales destacan los sistemas de gestión en general y los sistemas de gestión de la calidad (SGC) en particular. Las organizaciones dedicadas a la producción de petróleo están influenciadas por dicha tendencia. El petróleo es un recurso natural con reservas limitadas, cuya producción y consumo ha crecido progresivamente, aportando la mayor cuota (35 %) del total de la energía que se consume en el mundo contemporáneo, aporte que se mantendrá hasta el año 2035, según las previsiones más conservadoras. Por tanto, se hace necesario desarrollar modelos de producción innovadores, que contribuyan a la mejora del factor de recobro de los yacimientos y de la vida útil de los mismos, al tiempo que satisfagan los requerimientos de producción y consumo diarios de los exigentes mercados globales. El objeto de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo de gestión de la calidad y su efecto en el desempeño organizacional, a través del efecto mediador de los constructos satisfacción del cliente interno y gestión del conocimiento en la producción de petróleo. Esta investigación de carácter explicativo, no experimental, transeccional y ex-postfacto, se realizó en la región petrolífera del lago de Maracaibo, al occidente de Venezuela, la cual tiene más de 70 años en producción y cuenta con yacimientos maduros. La población objeto de estudio fue de 369 trabajadores petroleros, quienes participaron en las mesas técnicas de la calidad, durante los meses de mayo y julio del año 2012, los cuales en su mayoría están en proceso de formación como analistas, asesores y auditores de los SGC. La técnica de muestreo aplicada fue de tipo aleatorio simple, con una muestra de 252 individuos. A la misma se le aplicó un cuestionario diseñado ad hoc, el cual fue validado por las técnicas de juicio de expertos y prueba piloto. El procedimiento de investigación se realizó a través de una secuencia, que incluyó la elaboración de un modelo teórico, basado en la revisión del estado del arte; un modelo factorial, sobre la base del análisis factorial de los datos de la encuesta; un modelo de regresión lineal, elaborado a través del método de regresión lineal simple y múltiple; un modelo de análisis de sendero, realizado con el software Amos 20 SPSS y finalmente, un modelo informático, realizado con el simulador Vensim PLE v.6.2. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el modelo teórico se transformó en un modelo empírico, en el cual, la variable independiente fue el SGC, la variable mediadora fue la integración de las dimensiones eliminación de la no conformidad, satisfacción del cliente interno y aprendizaje organizacional (ENCSCIAO) y la variable respuesta la integración de las dimensiones desempeño organizacional y aprendizaje organizacional (DOOA). Se verificó el efecto mediador del ENSCIAO sobre la relación SGC-DOOA con una bondad del ajuste, del 42,65%. En el modelo de regresión múltiple se encontró que las variables determinantes son eliminación de la no conformidad (ENC), conocimiento adquirido (CA) y conocimiento espontáneo (CE), lo cual fue corroborado con el modelo de análisis de sendero. El modelo informático se desarrolló empleando datos aproximados de una unidad de producción tipo, generándose cuatro escenarios; siendo el más favorable, aquel en el cual se aplicaba el SGC y variables relacionadas, reduciendo la desviación de la producción, incrementando el factor de recobro y ampliando la vida útil del yacimiento. Se concluye que la aplicación del SGC y constructos relacionados favorece el desempeño y la producción de las unidades de explotación de yacimientos petrolíferos maduros. Los principales aportes de la tesis son la obtención de un modelo de gestión de la producción de petróleo en yacimientos maduros, basado en los SGC. Asimismo, el desarrollo de un concepto de gestión de la calidad asociado a la reducción de la desviación de la producción petrolífera anual, al incremento del factor de recobro y al aumento de la vida útil del yacimiento. Las futuras líneas de investigación están orientadas a la aplicación del modelo en contextos reales y específicos, para medir su impacto y realizar los ajustes pertinentes. ABSTRACT The process of change from an industrial society to a knowledge-based society, which undergoes the globalized world in the twenty-first century, induces companies and organizations to develop a sustainable and competitive advantages based on its intangible assets, among which are noteworthy the management systems in general and particularly the quality management systems (QMS). Organizations engaged in oil production are influenced by said trend. Oil is a natural resource with limited reserves, where production and consumption has grown progressively, providing the largest share (35%) of the total energy consumed in the contemporary world, a contribution that will remain until the year 2035 according to the more conservative trust estimations. Therefore, it becomes necessary to develop innovative production models which contribute with the improvement of reservoirs´ recovery factor and the lifetime thereof, while meeting the production requirements and daily consumption of demanding global markets. The aim of this research is to develop a model of quality management and its effect on organizational performance through the mediator effect of the constructs, internal customer satisfaction and knowledge management in oil production. This research of explanatory nature, not experimental, transactional and expos-facto was carried out in the oil-region of Maracaibo Lake located to the west of Venezuela, which has more than 70 years in continuous production and has mature reservoirs. The population under study was 369 oil workers who participated in the technical quality workshops, during the months of May and July of 2012, the majority of which were in the process of training as analysts, consultants and auditors of the QMS. The sampling technique applied was simple random type. To a sample of 252 individuals of the population it was applied an ad hoc designed questionnaire, which was validated by the techniques of expert judgment and pilot test. The research procedure was performed through a sequence, which included the elaboration of a theoretical model, based on the review of the state of the art; a factorial model with based on factorial analysis of the survey data; a linear regression model, developed through the method of simple and multiple linear regression; a structural equation model, made with software °Amos 20 SPSS° and finally, a computer model, performed with the simulator Vensim PLE v.6.2. The results indicate that the theoretical model was transformed into an empirical model, in which the independent variable was the QMS, the mediator variable was the integration of the dimensions: elimination of non-conformity, internal customer satisfaction and organizational learning (ENCSCIAO) and the response variable the integration of the dimensions, organizational performance and learning organizational (DOOA). ENSCIAO´s mediator effect on the relation QMS-DOOA was verified with a goodness of fit of 42,65%. In the multiple regression model was found to be the determining variables are elimination of nonconformity (ENC), knowledge acquired (CA) and spontaneous knowledge (EC), which was verified with the structural equation model. The computer model was developed based on approximate data of an oil production unit type, creating four (04) scenarios; being the most favorable, that one which it was applied the QMS and related variables, reducing the production deviation, increasing the recovery factor and extending the lifetime of the reservoir. It is concluded that QMS implementation powered with the related constructs, favors performance and production of mature oilfield of exploitation reservoirs units. The main contributions of this thesis are obtaining a management model for oil production in mature oilfields, based on QMS. In addition, development of a concept of quality associated to reduce the annual oil production deviation, increase the recovery factor and increase oilfield lifetime. Future lines of research are oriented to the implementation of this model in real and specific contexts to measure its impact and make the necessary adjustments that might take place.

State of the Art and Future Trends in Grid Codes Applicable to Isolated Electrical Systems

Electrical power systems are changing their traditional structure, which was based on a little number of large generating power plants placed at great distances from loads by new models that tend to split the big production nodes in many smaller ones. The set of small groups which are located close to consumers and provide safe and quality energy is called distributed generation (DG). The proximity of the sources to the loads reduces losses associated with transportation and increases overall system efficiency. DG also favors the inclusion of renewable energy sources in isolated electrical systems or remote microgrids, because they can be installed where the natural resource is located. In both cases, as weak grids unable to get help from other nearby networks, it is essential to ensure appropriate behavior of DG sources to guarantee power system safety and stability. The grid codes sets out the technical requirements to be fulfilled for the sources connected in these electrical networks. In technical literature it is rather easy to find and compare grid codes for interconnected electrical systems. However, the existing literature is incomplete and sparse regarding isolated electrical systems and this happens due to the difficulties inherent in the pursuit of codes. Some countries have developed their own legislation only for their island territory (as Spain or France), others apply the same set of rules as in mainland, another group of island countries have elaborated a complete grid code for all generating sources and some others lack specific regulation. This paper aims to make a complete review of the state of the art in grid codes applicable to isolated systems, setting the comparison between them and defining the guidelines predictably followed by the upcoming regulations in these particular systems.

Aplicação da dendrogeomorfologia na caracterização e datação de processos erosivos em voçorocas na região de Piracicaba, SP

O solo é um recurso natural essencial para os seres humanos. Porém, atualmente, as atividades humanas estão provocando a degradação do solo principalmente através da aceleração dos processos erosivos. Os estudos sobre estes processos ajudam na compreensão, interpretação e conservação do solo. Assim, este trabalho pretende estudar e datar os processos erosivos em uma voçoroca localizada na Estação Experimental de Tupi (Piracicaba SP) mediante o uso da dendrogeomorfologia. A dendrogeomorfologia é uma ciência relativamente recente que relaciona os anéis de crescimento das árvores com processos geomorfológicos permitindo a reconstrução cronológica e ocorrência dos eventos. A relevância deste estudo é conhecer o potencial desta ciência em áreas tropicais já que atualmente este tipo de estudos são escassos nestas áreas. Esta técnica foi aplicada utilizando raízes expostas de espécies do gênero Pinus sp. A datação do processo erosivo baseou-se nas mudanças no padrão de crescimento das raízes, tais como: a largura do anel, crescimento excêntrico, porcentagem do lenho tardio e densidade do lenho ocorridas após a sua exposição pelo processo erosivo. Através do estudo destas alterações determinou-se o primeiro ano de exposição da raiz e se calculou a taxa de erosão anual. Os resultados mostraram que a voçoroca está formada pela integração de dois sistemas de diferentes origens que confluem em um degrau de erosão. A abertura das voçorocas está influenciada pela presença de processos de \"piping\" na área, os quais também afetam a morfologia das raízes quando enterradas. A taxa de erosão vertical, segundo o método de GÄRTNER (2007), atingem valores entre 17,0 e 36,5 mm/ano quantificando o processo de afundamento da voçoroca; e a taxa de erosão horizontal, segundo o método de MALIK (2008), valores de 0,70 e 1,45 m/ano caracterizando o avanço longitudinal da mesma. Estes resultados são elevados se comparados com resultados obtidos em climas temperados por outros autores e similares aos publicados por BOVI (2013) na mesma área de estudo. Finalmente, a dendrogeomorfologia se corrobora como uma ferramenta de grande potencial em áreas tropicais. Os dados e informações obtidos podem se traduzir num banco de dados dendrogeomorfológicos e contribuir à expansão desta ciência no Brasil e áreas de ambientes tropicais.

Avoiding Extinction: An Evaluation of Short-Term Recovery Recommendations for the Endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow

The endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus; RGSM) is nearing extinction and requires immediate recovery actions. In a draft report to the Middle Rio Grande Program, a Program Advisory Panel (PAP) recommended 34 short-term recovery measures to be implemented within the next five years, and 21 long-term recovery actions. However, these recommendations need further analysis to determine if and how the actions could be implemented. This project evaluated short-term recommendations provided by the PAP to identify the most effective and rank the relative importance of the actions. These recommendations were divided into 7 recovery categories: population augmentation (5 recommendations); hydrologic regimen (4 recommendations); physical habitat (3 recommendations); biological component of habitat (2 recommendations); population monitoring (6 recommendations); monitoring, analysis, and modeling (12 recommendations); and information and planning (2 recommendations). Each recommendation was evaluated for its potential to produce anticipated recovery progress for the RGSM based on assessments of the degree of feasibility, cost effectiveness, and associated potential consequences if fully implemented. In addition, other alternatives in a range of options were also considered where applicable. In each case, recommendations were evaluated from on-site visits, interviews with researchers and resource managers, and literature review. Based on the research findings, three major groupings of the recovery categories were identified: natural aspects of recovery, program aspects of recovery, and emergency measures. At least one recovery category within each major grouping was considered important by the respondents, which indicates that each grouping is of high importance in relation to the situation at hand. However, actions within each grouping have varying priorities given constraints on available resources, time, and budget. An integrated approach that accounts for the complexity of the river system and the species itself was considered the best approach to avoid extinction while ensuring long-term sustainability. Results of these analyses were provided directly to the PAP for their review, and it is anticipated that project results could advance implementation of the most appropriate immediate recovery actions needed to prevent extinction of the RGSM.

Barnstable, Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic quadrangle map of Barnstable, Massachusetts. The edition date is 1893 and the map was reprinted in 1907. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Barre, Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic quadrangle map of Barre, Massachusetts. The suvery (ground condition) date is 1887, the edition date is March, 1894 and the map was reprinted in 1942. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Becket, Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic quadrangle map of Becket, Massachusetts. The survey (ground condition) date is 1886. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Belchertown, Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic map of the Belchertown, Massachusetts quadrangle. The suvey (ground condition) dates are 1885 and 1887; the edition date is November, 1893. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Berlin (N.Y.) Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic quadrangle map entitled Berlin, (N.Y.) which also shows towns and features in Massachusetts. The survey dates (ground condition) for this map are 1885-88, and the edition date is 1890. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Blackstone, Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic map of the Blackstone, Massachusetts quadrangle. The survey date (ground condition) of this map is 1886 and the edition date is October, 1893. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Boston (1900), Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic (DRG) of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic map of the Boston, Massachusetts quadrangle. The survey date (ground condition) of this map ranges from 1898 to 1900, the edition date is July, 1903 and it was reprinted in 1918. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Boston North (1943), Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic (DRG) of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic map of the Boston North, Massachusetts quadrangle. The survey date (ground condition) of this map is 1943, the edition date is 1946. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Boston South (1950), Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic (DRG) of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic map of the Boston South, Massachusetts quadrangle. The survey date (ground condition) of this map is 1943, it was revised in 1949 and reprinted with corrections in 1950. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.

Boston Bay (1886), Massachusetts 15 Minute Digital Raster Graphic

This layer is a digital raster graphic of the historic 15-minute USGS topographic map of the Boston Bay, Massachusetts quadrangle. The survey dates (ground condition) dates for this map are 1886 and 1887. This map includes coverage of Cohasset, Hull, Quincy, Marblehead, Lynn, Swampscott and, in general, the coastal areas encompassing Boston Harbor and the larger area of the Bay. The Boston Harbor Islands are also depicted. A digital raster graphic (DRG) is a scanned image of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) standard series topographic map, including all map collar information. The image inside the map neatline is geo-referenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator projection. The horizontal positional accuracy and datum of the DRG matches the accuracy and datum of the source map. The names of quadrangles which border this one appear on the map collar in their respective positions (N,S,E,W) in relation to this map.