The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.

A CRTC1 deficient mouse line study : relevance to mood disorders

Summary Mood disorders are among the most prevalent, psychosocial^ debilitating, chronic and relapsing forms of psychiatric illnesses. Despite considerable advances in their characterization, the heterogeneous nature of susceptibility factors and patient's symptoms could account for the lack of totally effective and remissive treatment. The neurobiological hypothesis of mood disorders etiology has evolved since the monoamine and neurotrophin theories and current evidence is pointing toward their integration in a broader polygenic epistatic model resulting in defective neuroplasticity of circuitries involved in emotion processing. Consequently, the unraveling of molecular underpinning pathways involved in neuronal plasticity, commonly altered among mood disorder syndromes and symptoms, should shed light on their etiology and provide new drug target. The transcription factor CREB has been critically involved in the long-lasting forms of neuronal plasticity and in the regulation of several mood disorders susceptibility genes. In addition, altered CREB activity has been associated with mood disorders pathophysiology and pharmacotherapy. Interestingly, the newly-identified protein CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1) was shown by previous studies in the laboratory to be a neuroactivity- dependent cAMP and calcium sensor, a potent activator of CREB-dependent transcription and involved in neuroplasticity mechanisms associated with long-term synaptic potentiation. Furthermore, the major mood disorder susceptibility gene Bdnf was suggested to be transcriptional regulated by CRTC1. Therefore, we aimed to investigate a role for CRTC1 in mood disorders by generating and characterizing a Crtcl deficient mouse model at the behavioral and molecular levels. Interestingly, their comprehensive characterization revealed a behavioral profile mirroring several major symptoms comorbid in mood disorders, including altered social interactions, aggressive behaviors, obesity, psychomotor retardation, increased emotional response to stress, decreased sexual drive and depression-like behaviors. To investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying these pathological behaviors and the implication of CRTC1 in the regulation of CREB-regulated genes in vivo, we also quantified transcript levels of several relevant CREB-regulated susceptibility genes in brain structures involved in the pathophysiology of mood disorders. Strikingly, we found the underexpression of primary components of the neurotrophin system: Bdnf and its cognate receptor TrkB, a marked decrease in the Nr4a family of transcription factors, implicated in neuroplasticity and associated with dopamine-related disorders, as well as in several other relevant CREB regulated genes. Moreover, neurochemical analysis revealed that Crtcl null mice presented alteration in prefrontal cortical monoamine turnover as well as in hippocampal and accumbal serotonin levels, similarly associated with mood disorders etiology and pharmacotherapy. Together, the present thesis supports the involvement of CRTC1 pathway hypofunction in the pathogenesis of mood disorders and specifically in pathological aggression, obesity and depression-related behavior comorbidities. Ultimately, CRTC1 may represent an interesting antidepressant, antiaggressive or mood stabilizer drug target candidate through the modulation of major CREB regulated susceptibility genes. Les troubles de l'humeur comptent parmi les maladies psychiatriques les plus prévalentes, psychosocialement débilitantes, chroniques et avec le plus grand risque de rechute. Malgré de considérable avancées dans leur caractérisation, la nature hétérogène des facteurs de susceptibilité et des symptômes présentés par les patients, semble justifier l'absence de traitement entraînant une rémission complète de la maladie. L'hypothèse de l'étiologie neurobiologique des troubles de l'humeur a évolué depuis la théorie des monoamines et des neurotrophines. Actuellement, elle tend à les englober dans un modèle polygénique épistatique induisant une déficience de la neuroplasticité des circuits impliqué dans la régulation des émotions. Par conséquent, il apparaît particulièrement relevant de caractériser des voies moléculaires impliquées dans la plasticité neuronale, communément altérées parmi les différents syndromes et symptômes des maladies de l'humeur, afin d'améliorer leur compréhension ainsi que de proposer de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques potentielles. Le facteur de transcription CREB a été de façon répétée et cohérente impliqué dans les mécanismes à long terme de la plasticité neuronale, ainsi que dans la régulation de plusieurs gènes de susceptibilité aux maladies de l'humeur. De plus, une altération dans l'activité de CREB a été impliqué dans leur étiologie et pharmacothérapie. De façon intéressante, des résultats préliminaires sur la protéine récemment découverte CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1) ont indiqué que son activation était dépendante de l'activité neuronale, qu'il était un senseur du calcium et de l'AMPc, ainsi qu'un coactivateur de CREB requis et puissant impliqué dans les mécanismes de plasticité neuronale associés à la potentialisation à long terme. En outre, des résultats ont suggéré que le gène majeur de susceptibilité Bdnf est régulé par CRTC1. Ainsi, notre objectif a été d'investiguer un rôle éventuel de CRTC1 dans les maladies de l'humeur en générant et caractérisant une lignée de souris déficiente pour Crtcl, tant au niveau comportemental que moléculaire. De façon intéressante, leur caractérisation détaillée a révélé un profil comportemental reflétant de nombreux aspects des maladies de l'humeur incluant une altération des interactions sociales, une agression pathologique, l'obésité, un retard psychomoteur, une réponse émotionnelle au stress accrue, une diminution de la motivation sexuelle, et des comportements reliés à la dépression. Afin d'investiguer les mécanismes moléculaires sous- jacents cette altération du comportement, ainsi que l'implication de CRTC1 dans l'expression des gènes régulés par CREB in vivo, nous avons quantifié les niveaux de transcrits de plusieurs gènes de susceptibilité régulés par CREB et impliqués dans la physiopathologie des maladies de l'humeur. Remarquablement, nous avons trouvé la sous-expression de composants primordiaux du système neurotrophique: Bdnf et son récepteur TrkB, une diminution majeure de la famille des facteurs de transcription Nr4a, impliqués dans la neuroplasticité et associés à des désordres liés à la dopamine, ainsi que de nombreux autres gènes relevants régulés par CREB. De plus, une analyse neurochimique a révélé que les souris déficientes pour Crtcî présentent une altération du turn-over des monoamines du cortex préfrontal ainsi que des niveaux hippocampaux et accumbaux de sérotonine, associés de façon similaire dans l'étiologie et la pharmacothérapie des maladies de l'humeur. Vue dans son ensemble, la présente thèse supporte l'implication d'une sous-régulation de la voie de CRTCI dans la pathogenèse des maladies de l'humeur ainsi que dans la comorbidité de l'agression pathologique, l'obésité et la dépression. En conclusion, CRTCI pourrait représenter une cible médicamenteuse intéressante aux propriétés antidépressante, antiagressive ou stabilisatrice de l'humeur au travers de la modulation de gènes de susceptibilité majeurs régulés par CREB.

Offshoring and directed technical change

To study the short-run and long-run implications on wage inequality, we introducedirected technical change into a Ricardian model of offshoring. A unique final good isproduced by combining a skilled and an unskilled product, each produced from a continuumof intermediates (tasks). Some of these tasks can be transferred from a skill-abundant Westto a skill-scarce East. Profit maximization determines both the extent of offshoring andtechnological progress. Offshoring induces skill-biased technical change because it increasesthe relative price of skill-intensive products and induces technical change favoring unskilledworkers because it expands the market size for technologies complementing unskilled labor.In the empirically more relevant case, starting from low levels, an increase in offshoringopportunities triggers a transition with falling real wages for unskilled workers in the West,skill-biased technical change and rising skill premia worldwide. However, when the extentof offshoring becomes sufficiently large, further increases in offshoring induce technicalchange now biased in favor of unskilled labor because offshoring closes the gap betweenunskilled wages in the West and the East, thus limiting the power of the price effectfueling skill-biased technical change. The unequalizing impact of offshoring is thus greatestat the beginning. Transitional dynamics reveal that offshoring and technical change aresubstitutes in the short run but complements in the long run. Finally, though offshoringimproves the welfare of workers in the East, it may benefit or harm unskilled workers inthe West depending on elasticities and the equilibrium growth rate.

Early change in defence mechanisms and coping in short-term dynamic psychotherapy: relations with symptoms and alliance.

Several patient-related variables have already been investigated as predictors of change in psychodynamic psychotherapy. Defensive functioning is one of them. However, few studies have investigated adaptational processes, encompassing defence mechanisms and coping, from an integrative or comparative viewpoint. This study includes 32 patients, mainly diagnosed with adjustment disorder and undergoing time-limited psychodynamic psychotherapy lasting up to 40 sessions, and will focus on early change in defence and coping. Observer-rater methodology was applied to the transcripts of two sessions of the first part of the psychotherapeutic process. It is assumed that the contextual-relational variable of therapeutic alliance intervenes as moderator on change in adaptational processes. Results corroborated the hypothesis, but only for coping, whereas for defences, overall functioning remained stable over the first 20 sessions of psychotherapy. These results are discussed within the framework of disentangling processes underlying adaptation, i.e., related to issues on trait and state aspects, as well as the role of the therapeutic alliance.

Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?

Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral consequences of the terrorist attacks of the 11-M in Madrid to analyze this issue. We consider this particular experiment since the attack took place only three days before the 2004 Congressional Election, which allows the use of credible identification criteria. In particular, we use the advance voting by Spanish residents abroad, who cast their vote before the terrorist attack, to identify the effect of the bombing. We exploit this macabre natural experiment to run a difference-in-differences estimation using data on three consecutive Congressional elections. Our empirical results indicate that a terrorist attack can have a large impact on the outcome of democratic elections.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

North-south trade and directed technical change

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual propertyrights, market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Throughthis channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the sametime, integration with countries where intellectual property rights are weakly protectedcan slow down the world growth rate. A crucial implication of these results is thatprotection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction,which is novel in the literature, finds support in the data on a panel of 53 countriesobserved in the years 1965-1990.

Skill-biased technological change and the business cycle

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States hasbeen biased towards skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles?We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identifyskill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fallin response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that at least part of thetechnology-induced fall in total hours is due to a compositional shift in labordemand. Skill-biased technology shocks have no effect on the relative price ofinvestment, suggesting that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregateproduction.

Embodied technical change and the fluctuations of wages and unemployment

The paper shows that a matching model where technological change is partially embodied in the job match is successful in explaining the variability of unemployment and vacancies. If we incorporate long-term wage contracts into the model, it also explains a number of stylized facts on the dynamics of real wages, which have been found in the empirical labor literature.

Interest rate restrictions in a natural experiment: loan allocation and the change in the usury laws in 1714

This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British governmenttightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to5%. A sample of individual loan transactions reveals that average loan size and minimum loan sizeincreased strongly, while access to credit worsened for those with little social capital. Collateralisedcredits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role ofprominence. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly; we findno evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.

Expertise and finance: Mergers motivated by technological change

This paper argues that a large technological innovation may lead to a merger wave by inducing entrepreneurs to seek funds from technologically knowledgeable firms -experts. When a large technological innovation occurs, the ability of non-experts (banks) to discriminate between good and bad quality projects is reduced. Experts can continue to charge a low rate of interest for financing because their expertise enables them to identify good quality projects and to avoid unprofitable investments. On the other hand, non-experts now charge a higher rate of interest in order to screen bad projects. More entrepreneurs, therefore, disclose their projects to experts to raise funds from them. Such experts are, however, able to copy the projects and disclosure to them invites the possibility of competition. Thus the entrepreneur and the expert may merge so as to achieve product market collusion. As well as rationalizing mergers, the model can also explain various forms of venture financing by experts such as corporate investors and business angels.