STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Development of a novel material flow simulation model for the integration of spatial and process relevant information

Simulation techniques are almost indispensable in the analysis of complex systems. Materials- and related information flow processes in logistics often possess such complexity. Further problem arise as the processes change over time and pose a Big Data problem as well. To cope with these issues adaptive simulations are more and more frequently used. This paper presents a few relevant advanced simulation models and intro-duces a novel model structure, which unifies modelling of geometrical relations and time processes. This way the process structure and their geometric relations can be handled in a well understandable and transparent way. Capabilities and applicability of the model is also presented via a demonstrational example.

Harmonised monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in Salmonella and Campylobacter isolates from food animals in the European Union

Many Member States of the European Union (EU) currently monitor antimicrobial resistance in zoonotic agents, including Salmonella and Campylobacter. According to Directive 2003/99/EC, Member States shall ensure that the monitoring provides comparable data on the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance. The European Commission asked the European Food Safety Authority to prepare detailed specifications for harmonised schemes for monitoring antimicrobial resistance. The objective of these specifications is to lay down provisions for a monitoring and reporting scheme for Salmonella in fowl (Gallus gallus), turkeys and pigs, and for Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli in broiler chickens. The current specifications are considered to be a first step towards a gradual implementation of comprehensive antimicrobial resistance monitoring at the EU level. These specifications propose to test a common set of antimicrobial agents against available cut-off values and a specified concentration range to determine the susceptibility of Salmonella and Campylobacter. Using isolates collected through programmes in which the sampling frame covers all epidemiological units of the national production, the target number of Salmonella isolates to be included in the antimicrobial resistance monitoring per Member State per year is 170 for each study population (i.e., laying hens, broilers, turkeys and slaughter pigs). The target number of Campylobacter isolates to be included in the antimicrobial resistance monitoring per Member State per year is 170 for each study population (i.e., broilers). The results of the antimicrobial resistance monitoring are assessed and reported in the yearly national report on trends and sources of zoonoses, zoonotic agents and antimicrobial resistance.

Actigraphic monitoring of physical activity in clinical trials in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is still associated with poor outcome, which is mainly related to negative symptoms, reduced physical activity and low quality of life. Physical activity can be objectively measured without distress using wrist actigraphy. The activity levels during the wake periods of the day have been informative on psychopathology and antipsychotic medication. Several studies demonstrated prominent negative symptoms to be associated with reduced activity levels with strongest correlations in chronic patients. Particularly, the avolition score is correlated with reduced activity levels. Moreover, activity levels differ between DSM-IV schizophrenia spectrum disorders and subtypes as well as between patients treated with olanzapine or risperidone. The longitudinal course of activity levels during an psychotic episode demonstrates considerable variance between subjects. During a psychotic episode patients with low activity levels at baseline experience an amelioration of negative symptoms. In contrast, patients with high activity levels at baseline have stable low negative syndrome scores. Between psychotic episodes less variance is observed. Actigraphy is easily applied in schizophrenia and allows collecting large amounts of crosssectional or longitudinal data. With larger numbers of subjects in controlled trials, continuous recording of activity would foster the detection of different outcome trajectories, which may prove as useful groups to target interventions. In clinical trials, activity monitoring may supplement and validate measures of the negative syndrome and its avolition factor or serve as an outcome marker for physical activity, which is important for metabolic issues and quality of life.

BPM software and process modelling languages in practice

IT has turned out to be a key factor for the purposes of gaining maturity in Business Process Management (BPM). This book presents a worldwide investigation that was conducted among companies from the ‘Forbes Global 2000’ list to explore the current usage of software throughout the BPM life cycle and to identify the companies’ requirements concerning process modelling. The responses from 130 companies indicate that, at the present time, it is mainly software for process description and analysis that is required, while process execution is supported by general software such as databases, ERP systems and office tools. The resulting complex system landscapes give rise to distinct requirements for BPM software, while the process modelling requirements can be equally satisfied by the most common languages (BPMN, UML, EPC).

Inherited and noninherited sources of variation in metastasis and the growth rate of tumors: Implications for tumor evolution and therapy

I have undertaken measurements of the genetic (or inherited) and nongenetic (or noninherited) components of the variability of metastasis formation and tumor diameter doubling time in more than 100 metastatic lines from each of three murine tumors (sarcoma SANH, sarcoma SA4020, and hepatocarcinoma HCA-I) syngeneic to C3Hf/Kam mice. These lines were isolated twice from lung metastases and analysed immediately thereafter to obtain the variance to spontaneous lung metastasis and tumor diameter doubling time. Additional studies utilized cells obtained from within 4 passages of isolation. Under the assumption that no genetic differences in metastasis formation or diameter doubling time existed among the cells of a given line, the variance within a line would estimate nongenetic variation. The variability derived from differences between lines would represent genetic origin. The estimates of the genetic contribution to the variation of metastasis and tumor diameter doubling time were significantly greater than zero, but only in the metastatic lines of tumor SANH was genetic variation the major source of metastatic variability (contributing 53% of the variability). In the tumor cell lines of SA4020 and HCA-I, however, the contribution of nongenetic factors predominated over genetic factors in the variability of the number of metastasis and tumor diameter doubling time. A number of other parameters examined, such as DNA content, karyotype, and selection and variance analysis with passage in vivo, indicated that genetic differences existed within the cell lines and that these differences were probably created by genetic instability. The mean metastatic propensity of the lines may have increased somewhat during their isolation and isotransplantation, but the variance was only slightly affected, if at all. Analysis of the DNA profiles of the metastatic lines of SA4020 and HCA-I revealed differences between these lines and their primary parent tumors, but not among the SANH lines and their parent tumor. Furthermore, there was a direct correlation between the extent of genetic influence on metastasis formation and the ability of the tumor cells to develop resistance to cisplatinum. Thus although nongenetic factors might predominate in contributing to metastasis formation, it is probably genetic variation and genetic instability that cause the progression of tumor cells to a more metastatic phenotype and leads to the emergence of drug resistance. ^

Assessment of smoking behaviour in a dental setting: a 1-year follow-up study using self-reported questionnaire data and exhaled carbon monoxide levels.

OBJECTIVES This study analyses the changes in smoking habits over the course of 1 year in a group of patients referred to an oral medicine unit. MATERIALS AND METHODS Smoking history and behaviour were analysed at baseline and after 1 year based on a self-reported questionnaire and on exhaled carbon monoxide levels [in parts per million (ppm)]. During the initial examination, all smokers underwent tobacco use prevention and cessation counselling. RESULTS Of the initial group of 121 patients, 98 were examined at the follow-up visit. At the baseline examination, 33 patients (33.67 %) indicated that they were current smokers. One year later, 14 patients (42.24 % out of the 33 smokers of the initial examination) indicated that they had attempted to stop smoking at least once over the follow-up period and 15.15 % (5 patients) had quit smoking. The mean number of cigarettes smoked per day by current smokers decreased from 13.10 to 12.18 (p = 0.04). The exhaled CO level measurements showed very good correlation with a Spearman's coefficient 0.9880 for the initial visit, and 0.9909 for the follow-up examination. For current smokers, the consumption of one additional cigarette per day elevated the CO measurements by 0.77 ppm (p < 0.0001) at the baseline examination and by 0.84 ppm (p < 0.0001) at the 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS In oral health care, where smoking cessation is an important aspect of the treatment strategy, the measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide shows a very good correlation with a self-reported smoking habit. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide is a non-invasive, simple and objective measurement technique for documenting and monitoring smoking cessation and reduction.

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapie for depression (MBCT) in clinical practice - baseline patient characteristics, process and outcome

Introduction: Mindfulness based cognitive therapy for depression (MBCT) has shown to be effective for the reduction of depressive relapse. However, additional information regarding baseline patient characteristics and process features related to positive response could be helpful both for the provision of MBCT in clinical practice, as well as for its further development. Method: Baseline characteristics, process data, and immediate outcome (symptom change, change in attitudes and trait mindfulness) of 108 patients receiving MBCT in routine care were recorded. A newly developed self-report measure (Daily Mindfulness Scale, DMS) was applied daily during the MBCT program. Additionally, patients filed daily reports on their mindfulness practice. There was no control group available. Results: Patients with more severe initial symptoms indicated greater amounts of symptom improvement, but did not show great rates of dropout from the MBCT intervention. Younger age was related to higher rates of dropout. Contradictory to some previous data, patients with lower levels of initial trait mindfulness showed greater improvement in symptoms, even after controlling for initial levels of symptoms. Adherence to daily mindfulness practice was high. Consistent with this result, the duration of daily mindfulness practice was not related to immediate outcome. Process studies using multivariate time series analysis revealed a specific role of daily mindfulness in reducing subsequent negative mood. Conclusions: Within the range of patient present in this study and the given study design, results support the use of MBCT in more heterogeneous groups. This demanding intervention was well tolerated by patients with higher levels of symptoms, and resulted in significant improvements regarding residual symptoms. Process-outcome analyses of initial trait mindfulness and daily mindfulness both support the crucial role of changes in mindfulness for the effects of MBCT.

The diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone from the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, WACCM and Earth observations: characteristics and intercomparison

In this study we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone derived from free-running simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and from reanalysis data of the atmospheric service MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) which both use a similar stratospheric chemistry module. We find good agreement between WACCM and the MACC reanalysis for the diurnal ozone variation in the high-latitude summer stratosphere based on photochemistry. In addition, we consult the ozone data product of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ERA-Interim reanalysis ozone system with its long-term ozone parametrization can not capture these diurnal variations in the upper stratosphere that are due to photochemistry. The good dynamics representations, however, reflects well dynamically induced ozone variations in the lower stratosphere. For the high-latitude winter stratosphere we describe a novel feature of diurnal variation in ozone where changes of up to 46.6% (3.3 ppmv) occur in monthly mean data. For this effect good agreement between the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the MACC reanalysis suggest quite similar diurnal advection processes of ozone. The free-running WACCM model seriously underestimates the role of diurnal advection processes at the polar vortex at the two tested resolutions. The intercomparison of the MACC reanalysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrates how global reanalyses can benefit from a chemical representation held by a chemical transport model. The MACC reanalysis provides an unprecedented description of the dynamics and photochemistry of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone which is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and research on atmospheric tides. We confirm the diurnal variation in ozone at 5 hPa by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) experiment and selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The latter give valuable insight even to diurnal variation of ozone in the polar winter stratosphere.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of upper abdominal organs: field strength and intervendor variability of apparent diffusion coefficients

PURPOSE To determine the variability of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in various anatomic regions in the upper abdomen measured with magnetic resonance (MR) systems from different vendors and with different field strengths. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ten healthy men (mean age, 36.6 years ± 7.7 [standard deviation]) gave written informed consent to participate in this prospective ethics committee-approved study. Diffusion-weighted (DW) MR imaging was performed in each subject with 1.5- and 3.0-T MR systems from each of three vendors at two institutions. Two readers independently measured ADC values in seven upper abdominal regions (left and right liver lobe, gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and renal cortex and medulla). ADC values were tested for interobserver differences, as well as for differences related to field strength and vendor, with repeated-measures analysis of variance; coefficients of variation (CVs) and variance components were calculated. RESULTS Interreader agreement was excellent (intraclass coefficient, 0.876). ADC values were (77.5-88.8) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the spleen and (250.6-278.5) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the gallbladder. There were no significant differences between ADC values measured at 1.5 T and those measured at 3.0 T in any anatomic region (P >.10 for all). In two of seven regions at 1.5 T (left and right liver lobes, P < .023) and in four of seven regions at 3.0 T (left liver lobe, pancreas, and renal cortex and medulla, P < .008), intervendor differences were significant. CVs ranged from 7.0% to 27.1% depending on the anatomic location. CONCLUSION Despite significant intervendor differences in ADC values of various anatomic regions of the upper abdomen, ADC values of the gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and kidney may be comparable between MR systems from different vendors and between different field strengths.

Exact moment calculations for genetic models with migration, mutation, and drift

Using properties of moment stationarity we develop exact expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies at a single locus for a set of populations subject to drift, mutation, and migration. Some general results can be obtained even for arbitrary mutation and migration matrices, for example: (1) Under quite general conditions, the mean vector depends only on mutation rates, not on migration rates or the number of populations. (2) Allele frequencies covary among all pairs of populations connected by migration. As a result, the drift, mutation, migration process is not ergodic when any finite number of populations is exchanging genes. in addition, we provide closed form expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies in Wright's finite-island model of migration under several simple models of mutation, and we show that the correlation in allele frequencies among populations can be very large for realistic rates of mutation unless an enormous number of populations are exchanging genes. As a result, the traditional diffusion approximation provides a poor approximation of the stationary distribution of allele frequencies among populations. Finally, we discuss some implications of our results for measures of population structure based on Wright's F-statistics.

Racial disparities in CD4 counts at initial HIV-1 diagnosis: Analysis of the Adult Spectrum of HIV disease dataset and public health implications

Introduction. The HIV/AIDS disease burden disproportionately affects minority populations, specifically African Americans. While sexual risk behaviors play a role in the observed HIV burden, other factors including gender, age, socioeconomics, and barriers to healthcare access may also be contributory. The goal of this study was to determine how far down the HIV/AIDS disease process people of different ethnicities first present for healthcare. The study specifically analyzed the differences in CD4 cell counts at the initial HIV-1 diagnosis with respect to ethnicity. The study also analyzed racial differences in HIV/AIDS risk factors. ^ Methods. This is a retrospective study using data from the Adult Spectrum of HIV Disease (ASD), collected by the City of Houston Department of Health. The ASD database contains information on newly reported HIV cases in the Harris County District Hospitals between 1989 and 2000. Each patient had an initial and a follow-up report. The extracted variables of interest from the ASD data set were CD4 counts at the initial HIV diagnosis, race, gender, age at HIV diagnosis and behavioral risk factors. One-way ANOVA was used to examine differences in baseline CD4 counts at HIV diagnosis between racial/ethnic groups. Chi square was used to analyze racial differences in risk factors. ^ Results. The analyzed study sample was 4767. The study population was 47% Black, 37% White and 16% Hispanic [p<0.05]. The mean and median CD4 counts at diagnosis were 254 and 193 cells per ml, respectively. At the initial HIV diagnosis Blacks had the highest average CD4 counts (285), followed by Whites (233) and Hispanics (212) [p<0.001 ]. These statistical differences, however, were only observed with CD4 counts above 350 [p<0.001], even when adjusted for age at diagnosis and gender [p<0.05]. Looking at risk factors, Blacks were mostly affected by intravenous drug use (IVDU) and heterosexuality, whereas Whites and Hispanics were more affected by male homosexuality [ p<0.05]. ^ Conclusion. (1) There were statistical differences in CD4 counts with respect to ethnicity, but these differences only existed for CD4 counts above 350. These differences however do not appear to have clinical significance. Antithetically, Blacks had the highest CD4 counts followed by Whites and Hispanics. (2) 50% of this study group clinically had AIDS at their initial HIV diagnosis (median=193), irrespective of ethnicity. It was not clear from data analysis if these observations were due to failure of early HIV surveillance, HIV testing policies or healthcare access. More studies need to be done to address this question. (3) Homosexuality and bisexuality were the biggest risk factors for Whites and Hispanics, whereas for Blacks were mostly affected by heterosexuality and IVDU, implying a need for different public health intervention strategies for these racial groups. ^

Obesity during pregnancy on vagal tone, hemoglobin A1c, oxygenation, and perinatal outcomes

Purpose: To examine the effect of obesity and gestational weight gain on heart rate variability (HRV), oxygenation (HbO 2 and SpO2), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and the frequency of pregnancy complications in obese (O) and non-obese (NO) women.^ Design: The study was an observational comparison study with a repeated measures design. ^ Setting: The setting was a low risk prenatal, university clinic located in a large southeastern metropolitan city. ^ Sample: The sample consisted of a volunteer group of 41 pregnant women who were observed at the three time points of 20, 28, and 36 weeks gestation. ^ Analysis: Analysis included general linear modeling with repeated measures to test for group differences with changes over time on vagal response, HbA1c, and oxygenation. Odds ratios were computed to compare the frequency of birth outcomes. ^ Findings: The interaction effect of time between O and NO women on HbO2 was significant. The mean HP, RSA, and HbO2 changed significantly over time within the NO women. The mean HbA 1c increased significantly over time within the O women. Women with excess gestational weight gain had significantly lower heart period than women with weight gain within the IOM recommendations. Obese women were more likely to have Group B streptococcal infections, gestational hypertension, give birth by cesarean or instrument assistance, and have at least one postnatal event. ^ Conclusions: Monitoring HRV, oxygenation, and HbA1c using minimally invasive measures may permit early identification of alterations in autonomic response. Implementation of interventions to promote vagal tone may help to reduce risks for adverse perinatal outcomes related to obesity. Future studies should examine the effect of obesity on the vagal response and perinatal outcomes. ^

Improving disclosure of medical errors: Including patients and family members in the disclosure process

Over the last decade, adverse events and medical errors have become a main focus of interest for the standards of quality and safety in the U.S. healthcare system (Weinstein & Henderson, 2009). Particularly when a medical error occurs, the disclosure of medical errors and its practices have become a focal point of the healthcare process. Patients and family members who have experienced a medical error might be able to provide knowledge and insight on how to improve the disclose process. However, patient and family member are not typically involved in the disclosure process, thus their experiences go unnoticed. ^ The purpose of this research was to explore how best to include patients and family members in the disclosure process regarding a medical error. The research consisted of 28 qualitative interviews from three stakeholder groups: Hospital Administrators, Clinical Service Providers, and Patients and Family Members. They were asked for their ideas and suggestions on how best to include patients and family members in the disclosure process. Framework Analysis was used to analyze this data and find prevalent themes based on the primary research question. A secondary aim was to index categories created based on the interviews that were collected. Data was used from the Texas Disclosure and Compensation Study with Dr. Eric Thomas as the Principal Investigator. Full acknowledgement of access to this data is given to Dr. Thomas. ^ The themes from the research revealed that each stakeholder group was interested and open to including patients and family members in the disclosure process and that the disclosure process should not be a "one-way" avenue. The themes gave many suggestions regarding how to best include patients and family members in the disclosure process of a medical error. Secondary aims revealed several ways to assess the ideas and suggestion given by the stakeholders. Overall, acceptability of getting the perspective of patients and family members was the most common theme. Comparison of each stakeholder group revealed that including patients and family members would be beneficial to improving hospital disclosure practices. ^ Conclusions included a list of recommendations and measureable appropriate strategies that could provide hospital with key stakeholders insights on how to improve their disclosure process. Sharing patients and family members experience with healthcare providers can encourage a shift in culture where patients are valued and active in participating in hospital practices. To my knowledge, this research is the very first of its kind and moves the disclosure process conversation forward in a patient-family member inclusion direction that will assist in improving disclosure practices. Future research should implement and evaluate the success of the various inclusion strategies.^