Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Mapped cetacean habitat suitability and richness in the Azores, links to ArcGIS files

Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

Terrain Controls and Landscape-Scale Susceptibility Modelling of Active-Layer Detachments, Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, Nunavut

Modelling the susceptibility of permafrost slopes to disturbance can identify areas at risk to future disturbance and result in safer infrastructure and resource development in the Arctic. In this study, we use terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model, an inventory of permafrost slope disturbances known as active-layer detachments (ALDs) and generalised additive modelling to produce a map of permafrost slope disturbance susceptibility for an area on northern Melville Island, in the Canadian High Arctic. By examining terrain variables and their relative importance, we identified factors important for initiating slope disturbance. The model was calibrated and validated using 70 and 30 per cent of a data-set of 760 mapped ALDs, including disturbed and randomised undisturbed samples. The generalised additive model calibrated and validated very well, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating its effectiveness at predicting disturbed and undisturbed samples. ALDs were most likely to occur below the marine limit on slope angles between 3 and 10° and in areas with low values of potential incoming solar radiation (north-facing slopes).

Measuring the cost of resilience

Air traffic management research lacks a framework for modelling the cost of resilience during disturbance. There is no universally accepted metric for cost resilience. The design of such a framework is presented and the modelling to date is reported. The framework allows performance assessment as a function of differential stakeholder uptake of strategic mechanisms designed to mitigate disturbance. Advanced metrics, cost- and non-cost-based, disaggregated by stakeholder sub-types, are described. A new cost resilience metric is proposed and exemplified with early test data.

Strength of the Iberian intraplate lithosphere: Cenozoic deformations and seismicity

Previous studies about the strength of the lithosphere in the Iberia centre fail to resolve the depth of earthquakes because of the rheological uncertainties. Therefore, new contributions are considered (the crustal structure from a density model) and several parameters (tectonic regime, mantle rheology, strain rate) are checked in this paper to properly examine the role of lithospheric strength in the intraplate seismicity and the Cenozoic evolution. The strength distribution with depth, the integrated strength, the effective elastic thickness and the seismogenic thickness have been calculated by a finite element modelling of the lithosphere across the Central System mountain range and the bordering Duero and Madrid sedimentary basins. Only a dry mantle under strike-slip/extension and a strain rate of 10-15 s-1, or under extension and 10-16 s-1, causes a strong lithosphere. The integrated strength and the elastic thickness are lower in the mountain chain than in the basins. These anisotropies have been maintained since the Cenozoic and determine the mountain uplift and the biharmonic folding of the Iberian lithosphere during the Alpine deformations. The seismogenic thickness bounds the seismic activity in the upper–middle crust, and the decreasing crustal strength from the Duero Basin towards the Madrid Basin is related to a parallel increase in Plio–Quaternary deformations and seismicity. However, elasto–plastic modelling shows that current African–Eurasian convergence is resolved elastically or ductilely, which accounts for the low seismicity recorded in this region.

Pose estimation of a humanoid robot using images from a mobile external camera

NOGUEIRA, Marcelo B. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. ; ALSINA, Pablo J. Pose Estimation of a Humanoid Robot Using Images from an Mobile Extern Camera. In: IFAC WORKSHOP ON MULTIVEHICLE SYSTEMS, 2006, Salvador, BA. Anais... Salvador: MVS 2006, 2006.

Multimodal attention system for an interactive robot

[EN]Social robots are receiving much interest in the robotics community. The most important goal for such robots lies in their interaction capabilities. An attention system is crucial, both as a filter to center the robot’s perceptual resources and as a mean of letting the observer know that the robot has intentionality. In this paper a simple but flexible and functional attentional model is described. The model, which has been implemented in an interactive robot currently under development, fuses both visual and auditive information extracted from the robot’s environment, and can incorporate knowledge-based influences on attention.

Representation of odometry errors on occupancy grids

SOUZA, Anderson A. S. ; SANTANA, André M. ; BRITTO, Ricardo S. ; GONÇALVES, Luiz Marcos G. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. Representation of Odometry Errors on Occupancy Grids. In: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFORMATICS IN CONTROL, AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS, 5., 2008, Funchal, Portugal. Proceedings... Funchal, Portugal: ICINCO, 2008.

Localization of a mobile robot based on odometry and natural landmarks using extended kalman filter

SANTANA, André M.; SOUZA, Anderson A. S.; BRITTO, Ricardo S.; ALSINA, Pablo J.; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. Localization of a mobile robot based on odometry and natural landmarks using extended Kalman Filter. In: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFORMATICS IN CONTROL, AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS, 5., 2008, Funchal, Portugal. Proceedings... Funchal, Portugal: ICINCO, 2008.

Modelling and Mining To Manage

In this talk, I will describe various computational modelling and data mining solutions that form the basis of how the office of Deputy Head of Department (Resources) works to serve you. These include lessons I learn about, and from, optimisation issues in resource allocation, uncertainty analysis on league tables, modelling the process of winning external grants, and lessons we learn from student satisfaction surveys, some of which I have attempted to inject into our planning processes.

Principles and Practice of Fire Modelling: A Collection of Lecture Notes for a Short Course

Once the preserve of university academics and research laboratories with high-powered and expensive computers, the power of sophisticated mathematical fire models has now arrived on the desk top of the fire safety engineer. It is a revolution made possible by parallel advances in PC technology and fire modelling software. But while the tools have proliferated, there has not been a corresponding transfer of knowledge and understanding of the discipline from expert to general user. It is a serious shortfall of which the lack of suitable engineering courses dealing with the subject is symptomatic, if not the cause. The computational vehicles to run the models and an understanding of fire dynamics are not enough to exploit these sophisticated tools. Too often, they become 'black boxes' producing magic answers in exciting three-dimensional colour graphics and client-satisfying 'virtual reality' imagery. As well as a fundamental understanding of the physics and chemistry of fire, the fire safety engineer must have at least a rudimentary understanding of the theoretical basis supporting fire models to appreciate their limitations and capabilities. The five day short course, "Principles and Practice of Fire Modelling" run by the University of Greenwich attempt to bridge the divide between the expert and the general user, providing them with the expertise they need to understand the results of mathematical fire modelling. The course and associated text book, "Mathematical Modelling of Fire Phenomena" are aimed at students and professionals with a wide and varied background, they offer a friendly guide through the unfamiliar terrain of mathematical modelling. These concepts and techniques are introduced and demonstrated in seminars. Those attending also gain experience in using the methods during "hands-on" tutorial and workshop sessions. On completion of this short course, those participating should: - be familiar with the concept of zone and field modelling; - be familiar with zone and field model assumptions; - have an understanding of the capabilities and limitations of modelling software packages for zone and field modelling; - be able to select and use the most appropriate mathematical software and demonstrate their use in compartment fire applications; and - be able to interpret model predictions. The result is that the fire safety engineer is empowered to realise the full value of mathematical models to help in the prediction of fire development, and to determine the consequences of fire under a variety of conditions. This in turn enables him or her to design and implement safety measures which can potentially control, or at the very least reduce the impact of fire.

The development of dynamic CFD model of the magnetic semi-levitation of liquid metals

In the casting of reactive metals, such as titanium alloys, contamination can be prevented if there is no contact between the hot liquid metal and solid crucible. This can be achieved by containing the liquid metal by means of high frequency AC magnetic field. A water cooled current-carrying coil, surrounding the metal can then provide the required Lorentz forces, and at the same time the current induced in the metal can provide the heating required to melt it. This ‘attractive’ processing solution has however many problems, the most serious being that of the control and containment of the liquid metal envelope, which requires a balance of the gravity and induced inertia forces on the one side, and the containing Lorentz and surface tension forces on the other. To model this process requires a fully coupled dyna ic solution of the flow fields, magnetic field and heat transfer/melding process to account for. A simplified solution has been published previously providing quasi-static solutions only, by taking the irrotational ‘magnetic pressure’ term of the Lorentz force into account. The authors remedy this deficiency by modelling the full problem using CFD techniques. The salient features of these techniques are included in this paper, as space allows.

Improving the Accuracy of 3-D Reconstruction in Robotic Vision Applications

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Développement et expérimentation d'algorithmes de réorientation pour un robot sériel en chute libre

Ce mémoire présente 2 types de méthodes pour effectuer la réorientation d’un robot sériel en chute libre en utilisant les mouvements internes de celui-ci. Ces mouvements sont prescrits à partir d’algorithmes de planification de trajectoire basés sur le modèle dynamique du robot. La première méthode tente de réorienter le robot en appliquant une technique d’optimisation locale fonctionnant avec une fonction potentielle décrivant l’orientation du système, et la deuxième méthode applique des fonctions sinusoïdales aux articulations pour réorienter le robot. Pour tester les performances des méthodes en simulation, on tente de réorienter le robot pour une configuration initiale et finale identiques où toutes les membrures sont alignées mais avec le robot ayant complété une rotation de 180 degrés sur lui-même. Afin de comparer les résultats obtenus avec la réalité, un prototype de robot sériel plan flottant possédant trois membrures et deux liaisons rotoïdes est construit. Les expérimentations effectuées montrent que le prototype est capable d’atteindre les réorientations prescrites si peu de perturbations extérieures sont présentes et ce, même si le contrôle de l’orientation est effectué en boucle ouverte.

Enhancing the numerical performance of fire field models (CMS Paper)

This paper describes two new techniques designed to enhance the performance of fire field modelling software. The two techniques are "group solvers" and automated dynamic control of the solution process, both of which are currently under development within the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics environment. The "group solver" is a derivation of common solver techniques used to obtain numerical solutions to the algebraic equations associated with fire field modelling. The purpose of "group solvers" is to reduce the computational overheads associated with traditional numerical solvers typically used in fire field modelling applications. In an example, discussed in this paper, the group solver is shown to provide a 37% saving in computational time compared with a traditional solver. The second technique is the automated dynamic control of the solution process, which is achieved through the use of artificial intelligence techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxation using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential for enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step, unlike some of the comparison simulations.