Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Neural Networks for Modelling of Large Social Systems. Approaches for Mentality, Anticipating and Multivaluedness Accounting

It is consider the new global models for society of neuronet type. The hierarchical structure of society and mentality of individual are considered. The way for incorporating in model anticipatory (prognostic) ability of individual is considered. Some implementations of approach for real task and further research problems are described. Multivaluedness of models and solutions is discussed. Sensory-motor systems analogy also is discussed. New problems for theory and applications of neural networks are described.

Information Modelling of Two-Dimensional Optical Parameters Measurement

A method for measurement and visualization of the complex transmission coefficient of 2-D micro- objects is proposed. The method is based on calculation of the transmission coefficient from the diffraction pattern and the illumination aperture function for monochromatic light. A phase-stepping method was used for diffracted light phase determination.

A Knowledge-Oriented Technology of System-Objective Analysis and Modelling of Business-Systems

A new original method and CASE-tool of system analysis and modelling are represented. They are for the first time consistent with the requirements of object-oriented technology of informational systems design. They essentially facilitate the construction of organisational systems models and increase the quality of the organisational designing and basic technological processes of object application developing.

Applied Aspects of Mathematical Modeling and Optimization of Dynamics of Charged Beams

The complex of questions connected with the analysis, estimation and structural-parametrical optimization of dynamic system is considered in this article. Connection of such problems with tasks of control by beams of trajectories is emphasized. The special attention is concentrated on the review and analysis of spent scientific researches, the attention is stressed to their constructability and applied directedness. Efficiency of the developed algorithmic and software is demonstrated on the tasks of modeling and optimization of output beam characteristics in linear resonance accelerators.

Numerical modelling of complex femtosecond laser inscribed fiber gratings - comparison wih experiment

We present experimental studies and numerical modeling based on a combination of the Bidirectional Beam Propagation Method and Finite Element Modeling that completely describes the wavelength spectra of point by point femtosecond laser inscribed fiber Bragg gratings, showing excellent agreement with experiment. We have investigated the dependence of different spectral parameters such as insertion loss, all dominant cladding and ghost modes and their shape relative to the position of the fiber Bragg grating in the core of the fiber. Our model is validated by comparing model predictions with experimental data and allows for predictive modeling of the gratings. We expand our analysis to more complicated structures, where we introduce symmetry breaking; this highlights the importance of centered gratings and how maintaining symmetry contributes to the overall spectral quality of the inscribed Bragg gratings. Finally, the numerical modeling is applied to superstructure gratings and a comparison with experimental results reveals a capability for dealing with complex grating structures that can be designed with particular wavelength characteristics.

On the Mathematical Modelling of Microbial Growth: Some Computational Aspects

We propose a new approach to the mathematical modelling of microbial growth. Our approach differs from familiar Monod type models by considering two phases in the physiological states of the microorganisms and makes use of basic relations from enzyme kinetics. Such an approach may be useful in the modelling and control of biotechnological processes, where microorganisms are used for various biodegradation purposes and are often put under extreme inhibitory conditions. Some computational experiments are performed in support of our modelling approach.

Analysis and modelling of muscles motion during whole body vibration

The aim of the study is to characterize the local muscles motion in individuals undergoing whole body mechanical stimulation. In this study we aim also to evaluate how subject positioning modifies vibration dumping, altering local mechanical stimulus. Vibrations were delivered to subjects by the use of a vibrating platform, while stimulation frequency was increased linearly from 15 to 60Hz. Two different subject postures were here analysed. Platform and muscles motion were monitored using tiny MEMS accelerometers; a contra lateral analysis was also presented. Muscle motion analysis revealed typical displacement trajectories: motion components were found not to be purely sinusoidal neither in phase to each other. Results also revealed a mechanical resonant-like behaviour at some muscles, similar to a second-order system response. Resonance frequencies and dumping factors depended on subject and his positioning. Proper mechanical stimulation can maximize muscle spindle solicitation, which may produce a more effective muscle activation. © 2010 M. Cesarelli et al.

NLSE-based modelling of a random distributed feedback fiber laser

Random distributed feedback (DFB) fiber lasers have attracted a great attention since first demonstration [1]. Despite big advance in practical laser systems, random DFB fiber laser spectral properties are far away to be understood or even numerically modelled. Up to date, only generation power could be calculated and optimized numerically [1,2] or analytically [3] within the power balance model. However, spectral and statistical properties of random DFB fiber laser can not be found in this way. Here we present first numerical modelling of the random DFB fiber laser, including its spectral and statistical properties, using NLSE-based model. © 2013 IEEE.

Numerical modelling of multimode fibre-optic communication lines

The results of numerical modelling of nonlinear propagation of an optical signal in multimode fibres with a small differential group delay are presented. It is found that the dependence of the error vector magnitude (EVM) on the differential group delay can be reduced by increasing the number of ADC samples per symbol in the numerical implementation of the differential group delay compensation algorithm in the receiver. The possibility of using multimode fibres with a small differential group delay for data transmission in modern digital communication systems is demonstrated. It is shown that with increasing number of modes the strong coupling regime provides a lower EVM level than the weak coupling one.

Multi-threaded parallel numerical modelling of femtosecond pulse propagation in laser machining

Femtosecond laser microfabrication has emerged over the last decade as a 3D flexible technology in photonics. Numerical simulations provide an important insight into spatial and temporal beam and pulse shaping during the course of extremely intricate nonlinear propagation (see e.g. [1,2]). Electromagnetics of such propagation is typically described in the form of the generalized Non-Linear Schrdinger Equation (NLSE) coupled with Drude model for plasma [3]. In this paper we consider a multi-threaded parallel numerical solution for a specific model which describes femtosecond laser pulse propagation in transparent media [4, 5]. However our approach can be extended to similar models. The numerical code is implemented in NVIDIA Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) which provides an effitient hardware platform for multi-threded computing. We compare the performance of the described below parallel code implementated for GPU using CUDA programming interface [3] with a serial CPU version used in our previous papers [4,5]. © 2011 IEEE.

Investigation and modelling of tremor reducer with the technology of targeted energy transfer

This thesis presents the study of a two-degree-of-freedom (2 DOF) nonlinear system consisting of two grounded linear oscillators coupled to two separate light weight nonlinear energy sinks of an essentially nonlinear stiffness. In this thesis, Targeted Energy Transfer (TET) and NES concept are introduced. Previous studies and research of Energy pumping and NES are presented. The characters in nonlinear energy pumping have been introduced at the start of the thesis. For the aim to design the application of a tremor reduction assessment device, the knowledge of tremor reduction has also been mentioned. Two main parties have been presented in the research: dynamical theoretic method of nonlinear energy pumping study and experiments of nonlinear vibration reduction model. In this thesis, nonlinear energy sink (NES) has been studied and used as a core attachment for the research. A new theoretic method of nonlinear vibration reduction which with two NESs has been attached to a primary system has been designed and tested with the technology of targeted energy transfer. Series connection and parallel connection structure systems have been designed to run the tests. Genetic algorithm has been used and presented in the thesis for searching the fit components. One more experiment has been tested with the final components. The results have been compared to find out most efficiency structure and components for the theoretic model. A tremor reduction experiment has been designed and presented in the thesis. The experiment is for designing an application for reducing human body tremor. By using the theoretic method earlier, the experiment has been designed and tested with a tremor reduction model. The experiment includes several tests, one single NES attached system and two NESs attached systems with different structures. The results of theoretic models and experiment models have been compared. The discussion has been made in the end. At the end of the thesis, some further work has been considered to designing the device of the tremor reduction.

A villamos erőművek szén-dioxid-kibocsátásának modellezése reálopciók segítségével = Modelling of the carbon dioxide emissions of a power plant, using real options

A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.

Mathematical modelling of integrin-like receptors systems

Nel presente lavoro, ho studiato e trovato le soluzioni esatte di un modello matematico applicato ai recettori cellulari della famiglia delle integrine. Nel modello le integrine sono considerate come un sistema a due livelli, attivo e non attivo. Quando le integrine si trovano nello stato inattivo possono diffondere nella membrana, mentre quando si trovano nello stato attivo risultano cristallizzate nella membrana, incapaci di diffondere. La variazione di concentrazione nella superficie cellulare di una sostanza chiamata attivatore dà luogo all’attivazione delle integrine. Inoltre, questi eterodimeri possono legare una molecola inibitrice con funzioni di controllo e regolazione, che chiameremo v, la quale, legandosi al recettore, fa aumentare la produzione della sostanza attizzatrice, che chiameremo u. In questo modo si innesca un meccanismo di retroazione positiva. L’inibitore v regola il meccanismo di produzione di u, ed assume, pertanto, il ruolo di modulatore. Infatti, grazie a questo sistema di fine regolazione il meccanismo di feedback positivo è in grado di autolimitarsi. Si costruisce poi un modello di equazioni differenziali partendo dalle semplici reazioni chimiche coinvolte. Una volta che il sistema di equazioni è impostato, si possono desumere le soluzioni per le concentrazioni dell’inibitore e dell’attivatore per un caso particolare dei parametri. Infine, si può eseguire un test per vedere cosa predice il modello in termini di integrine. Per farlo, ho utilizzato un’attivazione del tipo funzione gradino e l’ho inserita nel sistema, valutando la dinamica dei recettori. Si ottiene in questo modo un risultato in accordo con le previsioni: le integrine legate si trovano soprattutto ai limiti della zona attivata, mentre le integrine libere vengono a mancare nella zona attivata.

Multi-modes approach to modelling of vortex-induced vibration

Acknowledgements A.P. would like to acknowledge the support of the National Subsea Research Institute (NSRI) UK. E.P. and M.W. are grateful for partial support provided by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR) by the PRIN funded program 2010/11 N.2010MBJK5B