Monte-Carlo simulation of Callisto's exosphere

We model Callisto's exosphere based on its ice as well as non-ice surface via the use of a Monte-Carlo exosphere model. For the ice component we implement two putative compositions that have been computed from two possible extreme formation scenarios of the satellite. One composition represents the oxidizing state and is based on the assumption that the building blocks of Callisto were formed in the protosolar nebula and the other represents the reducing state of the gas, based on the assumption that the satellite accreted from solids condensed in the jovian sub-nebula. For the non-ice component we implemented the compositions of typical CI as well as L type chondrites. Both chondrite types have been suggested to represent Callisto's non-ice composition best. As release processes we consider surface sublimation, ion sputtering and photon-stimulated desorption. Particles are followed on their individual trajectories until they either escape Callisto's gravitational attraction, return to the surface, are ionized, or are fragmented. Our density profiles show that whereas the sublimated species dominate close to the surface on the sun-lit side, their density profiles (with the exception of H and H-2) decrease much more rapidly than the sputtered particles. The Neutral gas and Ion Mass (NIM) spectrometer, which is part of the Particle Environment Package (PEP), will investigate Callisto's exosphere during the JUICE mission. Our simulations show that NIM will be able to detect sublimated and sputtered particles from both the ice and non-ice surface. NIM's measured chemical composition will allow us to distinguish between different formation scenarios. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A 3-D CT assisted Monte Carlo evaluation of intracavitary brachytherapy implants

Intracavitary brachytherapy (ICB) combined with external beam irradiation for treatment of cervical cancer is highly successful in achieving local control. The M.D. Anderson Cancer Center employs Fletcher Suit Delclos (FSD) applicators. FSD applicators contain shields to limit dose to critical structures. Dosimetric evaluation of ICB implants is limited to assessing dose at reference points. These points serve as surrogates for treatment intensity and critical structure dose. Several studies have mentioned that the ICRU38 reference points inadequately characterize the dose distribution. Also, the ovoid shields are rarely considered in dosimetry. ^ The goal of this dissertation was to ascertain the influence of the ovoid shields on patient dose distributions. Monte Carlo dosimetry (MCD) was applied to patient computed tomography(CT) scans. These data were analyzed to determine the effect of the shields on dose to standard reference points and the bladder and rectum. The hypothesis of this work is that the ICRU38 bladder and rectal points computed conventionally are not clinically acceptable surrogates for the maximum dose points as determined by MCD. ^ MCD was applied to the tandem and ovoids. The FSD ovoids and tandem were modeled in a single input file that allowed dose to be calculated for any patient. Dose difference surface histograms(DDSH) were computed for the bladder and rectum. Reference point doses were compared between shielded and unshielded ovoids, and a commercial treatment planning system. ^ The results of this work showed the tandem tip screw caused a 33% reduction in dose. The ovoid shields reduced the dose by a maximum of 48.9%. DDSHs revealed on average 5% of the bladder surface area was spared 53 cGy and 5% of the rectal surface area was spared 195 cGy. The ovoid shields on average reduced the dose by 18% for the bladder point and 25% for the rectal point. The Student's t-test revealed the ICRU38 bladder and rectal points do not predict the maximum dose for these organs. ^ It is concluded that modeling the tandem and ovoid internal structures is necessary for accurate dose calculations, the bladder shielding segments may not be necessary, and that the ICRU38 bladder point is irrelevant. ^

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Verification of intensity modulated stereotactic radiotherapy using Monte Carlo calculations and EPID dosimetry

The purpose of this work was to develop a comprehensive IMSRT QA procedure that examined, using EPID dosimetry and Monte Carlo (MC) calculations, each step in the treatment planning and delivery process. These steps included verification of the field shaping, treatment planning system (RTPS) dose calculations, and patient dose delivery. Verification of each step in the treatment process is assumed to result in correct dose delivery to the patient. ^ The accelerator MC model was verified against commissioning data for field sizes from 0.8 × 0.8 cm 2 to 10 × 10 cm 2. Depth doses were within 2% local percent difference (LPD) in low gradient regions and 1 mm distance to agreement (DTA) in high gradient regions. Lateral profiles were within 2% LPD in low gradient regions and 1 mm DTA in high gradient regions. Calculated output factors were within 1% of measurement for field sizes ≥1 × 1 cm2. ^ The measured and calculated pretreatment EPID dose patterns were compared using criteria of 5% LPD, 1 mm DTA, or 2% of central axis pixel value with ≥95% of compared points required to pass for successful verification. Pretreatment field verification resulted in 97% percent of the points passing. ^ The RTPS and Monte Carlo phantom dose calculations were compared using 5% LPD, 2 mm DTA, or 2% of the maximum dose with ≥95% of compared points required passing for successful verification. RTPS calculation verification resulted in 97% percent of the points passing. ^ The measured and calculated EPID exit dose patterns were compared using criteria of 5% LPD, 1 mm DTA, or 2% of central axis pixel value with ≥95% of compared points required to pass for successful verification. Exit dose verification resulted in 97% percent of the points passing. ^ Each of the processes above verified an individual step in the treatment planning and delivery process. The combination of these verification steps ensures accurate treatment delivery to the patient. This work shows that Monte Carlo calculations and EPID dosimetry can be used to quantitatively verify IMSRT treatments resulting in improved patient care and, potentially, improved clinical outcome. ^

Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

A Bayesian analysis for spatial processes with application to mapping

In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Logistic regression with Markov chains as covariates

The tobacco-specific nitrosamine 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) is an obvious carcinogen for lung cancer. Since CBMN (Cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus) has been found to be extremely sensitive to NNK-induced genetic damage, it is a potential important factor to predict the lung cancer risk. However, the association between lung cancer and NNK-induced genetic damage measured by CBMN assay has not been rigorously examined. ^ This research develops a methodology to model the chromosomal changes under NNK-induced genetic damage in a logistic regression framework in order to predict the occurrence of lung cancer. Since these chromosomal changes were usually not observed very long due to laboratory cost and time, a resampling technique was applied to generate the Markov chain of the normal and the damaged cell for each individual. A joint likelihood between the resampled Markov chains and the logistic regression model including transition probabilities of this chain as covariates was established. The Maximum likelihood estimation was applied to carry on the statistical test for comparison. The ability of this approach to increase discriminating power to predict lung cancer was compared to a baseline "non-genetic" model. ^ Our method offered an option to understand the association between the dynamic cell information and lung cancer. Our study indicated the extent of DNA damage/non-damage using the CBMN assay provides critical information that impacts public health studies of lung cancer risk. This novel statistical method could simultaneously estimate the process of DNA damage/non-damage and its relationship with lung cancer for each individual.^