Modeling and optimization of populations subject to time-dependent mutation.

It has become clear that many organisms possess the ability to regulate their mutation rate in response to environmental conditions. So the question of finding an optimal mutation rate must be replaced by that of finding an optimal mutation schedule. We show that this task cannot be accomplished with standard population-dynamic models. We then develop a "hybrid" model for populations experiencing time-dependent mutation that treats population growth as deterministic but the time of first appearance of new variants as stochastic. We show that the hybrid model agrees well with a Monte Carlo simulation. From this model, we derive a deterministic approximation, a "threshold" model, that is similar to standard population dynamic models but differs in the initial rate of generation of new mutants. We use these techniques to model antibody affinity maturation by somatic hypermutation. We had previously shown that the optimal mutation schedule for the deterministic threshold model is phasic, with periods of mutation between intervals of mutation-free growth. To establish the validity of this schedule, we now show that the phasic schedule that optimizes the deterministic threshold model significantly improves upon the best constant-rate schedule for the hybrid and Monte Carlo models.

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Placing a curb on growth (updated edition). CEPS Paperbacks. September 2013

This book provides an update to the major 2012 study by the same authors on the dual role of the public sector as the provider of the ultimate riskless asset and, at the same time, the source of a potential major systemic risk. In this second edition, Brender and his colleagues concentrate again on the tension between the need for the public sector to sustain demand in the face of a deleveraging private sector and the longer-term challenges of sustainability for fiscal policy in the major developed economies of the US, Japan and the euro area. In short, their principal thesis is that sovereign debt is in crisis. This crisis is apparent in the euro area, but it is also real, if at present only latent, in the US and Japan. The book shows how this process has evolved in these three big developed economies – and how their policy choices impact on global financial markets.

Modeling of Self-similar Traffic

Modeling of self-similar traffic is performed for the queuing system of G/M/1/K type using Weibull distribution. To study the self-similar traffic the simulation model is developed by using SIMULINK software package in MATLAB environment. Approximation of self-similar traffic on the basis of spline functions. Modeling self-similar traffic is carried outfor QS of W/M/1/K type using the Weibull distribution. Initial data are: the value of Hurst parameter H=0,65, the shape parameter of the distribution curve α≈0,7 and distribution parameter β≈0,0099. Considering that the self-similar traffic is characterized by the presence of "splashes" and long-termdependence between the moments of requests arrival in this study under given initial data it is reasonable to use linear interpolation splines.

Group-Based Symptom Trajectories in Indicated Prevention of Adolescent Depression

Background: Adolescent depression prevention research has focused on mean intervention outcomes, but has not considered heterogeneity in symptom course. Here, we empirically identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of depressive symptom change among adolescents enrolled in two indicated depression preven- tion trials and examine how cognitive-behavioral (CB) interventions and baseline predictors relate to trajectory membership. Methods: Six hundred thirty-one participants were assigned to one of three conditions: CB group intervention, CB bibliotherapy, and brochure control. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms from pretest to 2-year follow-up. We examined associations between class membership and conditions using chi- square tests and baseline predictors using multinomial regressions. Results: We identified four trajectories in the full sample. Qualitatively similar trajectories were found in each condition separately. Two trajectories of positive symptom course (low-declining, high-declining) had declining symptoms and were dis- tinguished by baseline symptom severity. Two trajectories of negative course (high-persistent, resurging), respectively, showed no decline in symptoms or de- cline followed by symptom reappearance. Participants in the brochure control condition were significantly more likely to populate the high-persistent trajectory relative to either CB condition and were significantly less likely to populate the low-declining trajectory relative to CB group. Several baseline factors predicted trajectory classes, but gender was the most informative prognostic factor, with males having increased odds of membership in a high-persistent trajectory rel- ative to other trajectories. Conclusions: Findings suggest that CB preventive interventions do not alter the nature of trajectories, but reduce the risk that adolescents follow a trajectory of chronically elevated symptoms.

Growth, survival, gene expression, microbiota and tryptic activity during feeding of Scophthalmus maximus first feeding larvae with beta-glucan (MacroGard)

Reflecting the natural biology of mass spawning fish aquaculture production of fish larvae is often hampered by high and unpredictable mortality rates. The present study aimed to enhance larval performance and immunity via the oral administration of an immunomodulator, beta-glucan (MacroGard®) in turbot (Scophthalmus maximus). Rotifers (Brachionus plicatilis) were incubated with or without yeast beta-1,3/1,6-glucan in form of MacroGard® at a concentration of 0.5 g/L. Rotifers were fed to first feeding turbot larvae once a day. From day 13 dph onwards all tanks were additionally fed untreated Artemia sp. nauplii (1 nauplius ml/L). Daily mortality was monitored and larvae were sampled at 11 and 24 dph for expression of 30 genes, trypsin activity and size measurements. Along with the feeding of beta-glucan daily mortality was significantly reduced by ca. 15% and an alteration of the larval microbiota was observed. At 11 dph gene expression of trypsin and chymotrypsin was elevated in the MacroGard® fed fish, which resulted in heightened tryptic enzyme activity. No effect on genes encoding antioxidative proteins was observed, whilst the immune response was clearly modulated by beta-glucan. At 11 dph complement component c3 was elevated whilst cytokines, antimicrobial peptides, toll like receptor 3 and heat shock protein 70 were not affected. At the later time point (24 dph) an anti-inflammatory effect in form of a down-regulation of hsp 70, tnf-alpha and il-1beta was observed. We conclude that the administration of beta-glucan induced an immunomodulatory response and could be used as an effective measure to increase survival in rearing of turbot.

Statistical Hurdle Models for Single Cell Gene Expression: Differential Expression and Graphical Modeling

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Modeling Seasonal and Weather Impacts on Cycling Count

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Growth hormone, insulin-like growth factor I and cell proliferation in the mouse blastocyst

The role of growth hormone (GH) in embryonic growth is controversial, yet preimplantation embryos express GH, insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and their receptors. In this study, addition of bovine GH doubled the proportion of two-cell embryos forming blastocysts and increased by about 25% the number of cells in those blastocysts with a concentration-response curve showing maximal activity at 1 pg bovine GH ml(-1), with decreasing activity at higher and lower concentrations. GH increased the number of cells in the trophectoderm by 25%, but did not affect the inner cell mass of blastocysts. Inhibition of cell proliferation by anti-GH antiserum indicated that GH is a potent autocrine or paracrine regulator of the number of trophectoderm cells in vivo. Type 1 IGF receptors (IGF1R) were localized to cytoplasmic vesicles and plasma membrane in the apical domains of uncompacted and compacted eight-cell embryos, but were predominantly apparent in cytoplasmic vesicles of the trophectoderm cells of the blastocyst, similar to GH receptors. Studies using alphaIR3 antiserum which blocks ligand activation of IGF1R, showed that IGF1R participate in the autocrine or paracrine regulation of the number of cells in the inner cell mass by an endogenous IGF-I-IGF1R pathway. However, alphaIR3 did not affect GH stimulation of the number of trophectoderm cells. Therefore, CH does not use secondary actions via embryonic IGF-I to modify the number of blastocyst cells. This result indicates that GH and IGF-I act independently. GH may selectively regulate the number of trophectoderm cells and thus implantation and placental growth. Embryonic GH may act in concert with IGF-I, which stimulates proliferation in the inner cell mass, to optimize blastocyst development.

Latent class and genetic analysis does not support migraine with aura and migraine without aura as separate entities

Latent class and genetic analyses were used to identify subgroups of migraine sufferers in a community sample of 6,265 Australian twins (55% female) aged 25-36 who had completed an interview based on International Headache Society UHS) criteria. Consistent with prevalence rates from other population-based studies, 703 (20%) female and 250 (9%) male twins satisfied the IHS criteria for migraine without aura (MO), and of these, 432 (13%) female and 166 (6%) male twins satisfied the criteria for migraine with aura (MA) as indicated by visual symptoms. Latent class analysis (LCA) of IHS symptoms identified three major symptomatic classes, representing 1) a mild form of recurrent nonmigrainous headache, 2) a moderately severe form of migraine, typically without visual aura symptoms (although 40% of individuals in this class were positive for aura), and 3) a severe form of migraine typically with visual aura symptoms (although 24% of individuals were negative for aura). Using the LCA classification, many more individuals were considered affected to some degree than when using IHS criteria (35% vs. 13%). Furthermore, genetic model fitting indicated a greater genetic contribution to migraine using the LCA classification (heritability, h(2) =0.40; 95% CI, 0.29-0.46) compared with the IHS classification (h(2)=0.36; 95% CI, 0.22-0.42). Exploratory latent class modeling, fitting up to 10 classes, did not identify classes corresponding to either the IHS MO or MA classification. Our data indicate the existence of a continuum of severity, with MA more severe but not etiologically distinct from MO. In searching for predisposing genes, we should therefore expect to find some genes that may underlie all major recurrent headache subtypes, with modifying genetic or environmental factors that may lead to differential expression of the liability for migraine. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sexual dimorphism of the femoral neck during the adolescent growth spurt: a structural analysis

Before puberty, there are only small sex differences in body shape and composition. During adolescence, sexual dimorphism in bone, lean, and fat mass increases, giving rise to the greater size and strength of the male skeleton. The question remains as to whether there are sex differences in bone strength or simply differences in anthropometric dimensions. To test this, we applied hip structural analysis (HSA) to derive strength and geometric indices of the femoral neck using bone densitometry scans (DXA) from a 6-year longitudinal study in Canadian children. Seventy boys and sixty-eight girls were assessed annually for 6 consecutive years. At the femoral neck, cross-sectional area (CSA, an index of axial strength), subperiosteal width (SPW), and section modulus (Z, an index of bending strength) were determined, and data were analyzed using a hierarchical (random effects) modeling approach. Biological age (BA) was defined as years from age at peak height velocity (PHV). When BA, stature, and total-body lean mass (TB lean) were controlled, boys had significantly higher Z than girls at all maturity levels (P < 0.05). Controlling height and TB lean for CSA demonstrated a significant independent sex by BA interaction effect (P < 0.05). That is, CSA was greater in boys before PHV but higher in girls after PHV The coefficients contributing the greatest proportion to the prediction of CSA, SPW, and Z were height and lean mass. Because the significant sex difference in Z was relatively small and close to the error of measurement, we questioned its biological significance. The sex difference in bending strength was therefore explained by anthropometric differences. In contrast to recent hypotheses, we conclude that the CSA-lean ratio does not imply altered mechanosensitivity in girls because bending dominates loading at the neck, and the Z-lean ratio remained similar between the sexes throughout adolescence. That is, despite the greater CSA in girls, the bone is strategically placed to resist bending; hence, the bones of girls and boys adapt to mechanical challenges in a similar way. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

A preform design method for sheet superplastic bulging with finite element modeling

Superplastic bulging is the most successful application of superplastic forming (SPF) in industry, but the non-uniform wall thickness distribution of parts formed by it is a common technical problem yet to be overcome. Based on a rigid-viscoplastic finite element program developed by the authors, for simulation of the sheet superplastic forming process combined with the prediction of microstructure variations (such as grain growth and cavity growth), a simple and efficient preform design method is proposed and applied to the design of preform mould for manufacturing parts with uniform wall thickness. Examples of formed parts are presented here to demonstrate that the technology can be used to improve the uniformity of wall thickness to meet practical requirements. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do practitioners use conceptual modeling in practice?

Much research has been devoted over the years to investigating and advancing the techniques and tools used by analysts when they model. As opposed to what academics, software providers and their resellers promote as should be happening, the aim of this research was to determine whether practitioners still embraced conceptual modeling seriously. In addition, what are the most popular techniques and tools used for conceptual modeling? What are the major purposes for which conceptual modeling is used? The study found that the top six most frequently used modeling techniques and methods were ER diagramming, data flow diagramming, systems flowcharting, workflow modeling, UML, and structured charts. Modeling technique use was found to decrease significantly from smaller to medium-sized organizations, but then to increase significantly in larger organizations (proxying for large, complex projects). Technique use was also found to significantly follow an inverted U-shaped curve, contrary to some prior explanations. Additionally, an important contribution of this study was the identification of the factors that uniquely influence the decision of analysts to continue to use modeling, viz., communication (using diagrams) to/from stakeholders, internal knowledge (lack of) of techniques, user expectations management, understanding models' integration into the business, and tool/software deficiencies. The highest ranked purposes for which modeling was undertaken were database design and management, business process documentation, business process improvement, and software development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling hybridoma cell metabolism using a generic genome-scale metabolic model of Mus musculus

The reconstructed cellular metabolic network of Mus musculus, based on annotated genomic data, pathway databases, and currently available biochemical and physiological information, is presented. Although incomplete, it represents the first attempt to collect and characterize the metabolic network of a mammalian cell on the basis of genomic data. The reaction network is generic in nature and attempts to capture the carbon, energy, and nitrogen metabolism of the cell. The metabolic reactions were compartmentalized between the cytosol and the mitochondria, including transport reactions between the compartments and the extracellular medium. The reaction list consists of 872 internal metabolites involved in a total of 1220 reactions, whereof 473 relate to known open reading frames. Initial in silico analysis of the reconstructed model is presented.