Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families

Insurance provision against uncertainties is present in several dimensions of peoples´s lives, such as the provisions related to, inter alia, unemployment, diseases, accidents, robbery and death. Microinsurance improves the ability of low-income individuals to cope with these risks. Brazil has a fairly developed financial system but still not geared towards the poor, especially in what concerns the insurance industry. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The Brazilian government provides a relatively developed social security system considering other countries of similar income level which crowds-out the demand for insurance and savings. On the other hand, this same public infrastructure may help to foster microfinance products supply. The objective of this paper is to analyze the demand for different types of private insurance by the low-income population using microdata from a National Expenditure Survey (POF/IBGE). The final objective is to help to understand the trade-offs faced for the development of an emerging industry of microinsurance in Brazil.

Prediction equations to estimate the demand of energy and crude protein for maintenance, gain and egg production for laying Japanese quails

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Determination of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) using a copper electrode: a clean alternative method

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Material processing by plasma shock wave generated in an inverse Z-pinch plasma expander

The applicability of plasma shock wave for material processing was investigated using modified inverse Z-pinch device. Shock wave expanding speed and plasma spectral analysis were studied using an internal magnetic,probe and spatially collimated light spectroscopy. The material processing capability of the device was shown by many different surface analysis techniques such as AES, IRS, EPM and SEM. The interactions between a plasma shock wave of similar to4x10(6) cm/s speed with a Si substrate surface shows some ion implantation capability using a nitrogen plasma and thin film formation using a methane plasma.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The rating of perceived exertion predicts intermittent vertical jump demand and performance

The aims of this study were (a) to assess the ability of the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) to predict performance (i.e. number of vertical jumps performed to a fixed jump height) of an intermittent vertical jump exercise, and (b) to determine the ability of RPE to describe the physiological demand of such exercise. Eight healthy men performed intermittent vertical jumps with rest periods of 4, 5, and 6s until fatigue. Heart rate and RPE were recorded every five jumps throughout the sessions. The number of vertical jumps performed was also recorded. Random coefficient growth curve analysis identified relationships between the number of vertical jumps and both RPE and heart rate for which there were similar slopes. In addition, there were no differences between individual slopes and the mean slope for either RPE or heart rate. Moreover, RPE and number of jumps were highly correlated throughout all sessions (r=0.97-0.99; P0.001), as were RPE and heart rate (r=0.93-0.97; P0.001). The findings suggest that RPE can both predict the performance of intermittent vertical jump exercise and describe the physiological demands of such exercise.

Inverse scattering approach for massive Thirring models with integrable type-II defects

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Seeder-fertilizer machine: energetic demand as a function of vegetal covering handling and manure deposition shank depth in no-tillage system

O trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a demanda energética de uma semeadora-adubadora, em função do tipo e manejo da cultura de cobertura vegetal e da profundidade da haste de deposição de adubo. Foi utilizado um trator Valtra BM100, instrumentado, para tracionar uma semeadora-adubadora de precisão equipada com quatro fileiras de semeadura espaçadas de 0,9 m para cultura de milho. O experimento foi conduzido em parcelas subsubdivididas, na área experimental do Laboratório de Máquinas e Mecanização Agrícola (LAMMA) da UNESP-Jaboticabal, utilizando duas culturas de cobertura (mucuna-preta e crotalária), três manejos dessas coberturas, sendo dois mecânicos (triturador de palhas e rolo-faca) e um químico (pulverização com herbicida), realizados 120 dias após a semeadura das culturas de cobertura e três profundidades da haste de deposição do adubo (0,11; 0,14 e 0,17 m), perfazendo 18 tratamentos, com quatro repetições, totalizando 72 observações. Foram avaliados os parâmetros velocidade de deslocamento, patinagem, força na barra de tração, força de pico, potência na barra de tração, potência de pico e consumo de combustível. Pôde-se concluir que a força na barra de tração foi menor para as profundidades de 0,11 e 0,14 m da haste sulcadora de adubo, o mesmo ocorrendo para força de pico, potência na barra de tração e consumo volumétrico. O consumo específico foi menor na profundidade de 0,17 m da haste sulcadora de adubo. As culturas de cobertura e seus manejos não interferiram no desempenho das máquinas estudadas.

Suggestion of an inverse relationship between perception of occupational risks and work-related injuries

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Task demand effects on postural control in older adults

The literature shows conflicting results regarding older adults' (OA) postural control performance. Differing task demands amongst scientific studies may contribute to such ambiguous results. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the performance of postural control in older adults and the relationship between visual information and body sway as a function of task demands. Old and young adults (YA) maintained an upright stance on different bases of support (normal, tandem and reduced), both with and without vision, and both with and without room movement. In the more demanding tasks, the older adults displayed greater body sway than the younger adults and older adults were more influenced by the manipulation of the visual information due to the room movement. However, in the normal support condition, the influence of the moving room was similar for the two groups. These results suggest that task demand is an important aspect to consider when examining postural control in older adults. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

Laserlike emission from silica inverse opals infiltrated with rhodamine 6G

Monodisperse latex spheres were obtained by a surfactant free styrene polymerization method and used to obtain colloidal crystals by controlled centrifugation settling. Silica inverse opals were then prepared by using the colloidal crystals as templates and TEOS/ethanol solution. The inverse opals were infiltrated with Rhodamine 6G and laserlike emission was observed at 590 nm under 532 nm pump wavelength. The data show line narrowing of the dye fluorescence and a laser threshold of similar to 0.1 mJ/pulse. Local-field effects and light scattering due to structural defects are the main mechanisms contributing to generation of the laser-action observed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.