The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.

Coil embolization of an infected superior gluteal artery pseudoaneurysm caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

We describe the successful selective coil embolization of an infected superior gluteal pseudoaneurysm secondary to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in a 36-year old women. The patient presented with a long history of drug abuse and perisacral abscesses due to chronic sacroilitis. The chosen strategy provides a safe and successful management of infected false gluteal artery aneurysm.

A 3-year survey of assault-related maxillofacial fractures in central Switzerland

AIM: The aim of this study was to analyse the character of assault-related facial fractures in central Switzerland and to compare their prevalence with the data presented in similar reports from other countries. MATERIAL: The present study comprised 65 patients with assault-related maxillofacial fractures treated in the Department of Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital of Bern between 2000 and 2002. METHODS: The mechanism, the causes of the injuries and the location of the fractures were analysed by reviewing emergency and hospital records. Concomitant injuries were also studied. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 33 years with the largest group being below 25 years. The male-to-female ratio was 56:9. The most common causes of assault-related injuries were fights, most frequently facial blows, accounting for 92.5% of all patients. Seventy-six per cent of the fractures occurred in the middle and upper facial skeleton with a predominance of 2:1 for the left side. In 39 patients (60%) surgery was necessary, with a mean hospital stay of 3.3 days. Thirty-five patients (54%) had concomitant injuries. Alcohol and drug abuse was found in 15 patients (23%). CONCLUSION: It seems that mostly young men suffer assault-related maxillofacial injuries. A contributing factor to the increased disposition for violence could be alcohol and drug abuse. Therefore, national prevention programmes for alcohol or drug abuse and addiction might have a positive effect on reducing the incidence of assault-related maxillofacial injuries.

Candida parapsilosis endocarditis: a comparative review of the literature

Fungal endocarditis (FE) is an uncommon disease, and while accounting for only 1.3-6% of all cases of infectious endocarditis, it carries a high mortality risk. Although Candida albicans represents the main etiology of FE, C. parapsilosis is the most common non-albicans species. We report the case of a 32-year-old man with a history of prior intravenous drug (IVD) use hospitalized with endocarditis due to C. parapsilosis and review all 71 additional cases documented in the literature. A retrospective analysis of the 72 C. parapsilosis cases compared to 52 recently reviewed cases of C. albicans endocarditis was conducted to identify organism-specific clinical peculiarities. The most common predisposing factor for C. parapsilosis endocarditis (41/72; 57.4%) involved prosthetic valves followed by IVD use (12/72; 20%). Peripheral embolic and/or hemorrhagic events occurred in 28/64 (43.8%) patients, mostly in cerebral and lower limb territories. Overall mortality was 41.7%. Combined surgical and clinical treatment was associated with a lower mortality. Few patients received the newer antifungal agents, and it would appear that more experience is required for their use in the treatment of C. parapsilosis endocarditis.

Public-health and individual approaches to antiretroviral therapy: township South Africa and Switzerland compared

BACKGROUND: The provision of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource-limited settings follows a public health approach, which is characterised by a limited number of regimens and the standardisation of clinical and laboratory monitoring. In industrialized countries doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, supported by resistance testing and frequent laboratory monitoring. We compared virologic response, changes to first-line regimens, and mortality in HIV-infected patients starting HAART in South Africa and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and two HAART programmes in townships of Cape Town, South Africa. We included treatment-naïve patients aged 16 y or older who had started treatment with at least three drugs since 2001, and excluded intravenous drug users. Data from a total of 2,348 patients from South Africa and 1,016 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analysed. Median baseline CD4+ T cell counts were 80 cells/mul in South Africa and 204 cells/mul in Switzerland. In South Africa, patients started with one of four first-line regimens, which was subsequently changed in 514 patients (22%). In Switzerland, 36 first-line regimens were used initially, and these were changed in 539 patients (53%). In most patients HIV-1 RNA was suppressed to 500 copies/ml or less within one year: 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95%-97%) in South Africa and 96% (94%-97%) in Switzerland, and 26% (22%-29%) and 27% (24%-31%), respectively, developed viral rebound within two years. Mortality was higher in South Africa than in Switzerland during the first months of HAART: adjusted hazard ratios were 5.90 (95% CI 1.81-19.2) during months 1-3 and 1.77 (0.90-3.50) during months 4-24. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the highly individualised approach in Switzerland, programmatic HAART in South Africa resulted in similar virologic outcomes, with relatively few changes to initial regimens. Further innovation and resources are required in South Africa to both achieve more timely access to HAART and improve the prognosis of patients who start HAART with advanced disease.

Host- rather than virus-related factors reduce health-related quality of life in hepatitis C virus infection

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with decreased health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Although HCV has been suggested to directly impair neuropsychiatric functions, other factors may also play a role. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we assessed the impact of various host-, disease- and virus-related factors on HRQOL in a large, unselected population of anti-HCV-positive subjects. All individuals (n = 1736) enrolled in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS) were asked to complete the Short Form 36 (SF-36) and the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS). RESULTS: 833 patients (48%) returned the questionnaires. Survey participants had significantly worse scores in both assessment instruments when compared to a general population. By multivariable analysis, reduced HRQOL (mental and physical summary scores of SF-36) was independently associated with income. In addition, a low physical summary score was associated with age and diabetes, whereas a low mental summary score was associated with intravenous drug use. HADS anxiety and depression scores were independently associated with income and intravenous drug use. In addition, HADS depression score was associated with diabetes. None of the SF-36 or HADS scores correlated with either the presence or the level of serum HCV RNA. In particular, SF-36 and HADS scores were comparable in 555 HCV RNA-positive and 262 HCV RNA-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-HCV-positive subjects have decreased HRQOL compared to controls. The magnitude of this decrease was clinically important for the SF-36 vitality score. Host and environmental, rather than viral factors, seem to impact on HRQOL level.

Delayed diagnosis of HIV infection and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.

Genotype 3 is associated with accelerated fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND/AIMS: While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of this study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. METHODS: We identified 1189 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one biopsy prior to antiviral treatment and assessable date of infection. Stage-constant fibrosis progression rate was assessed using the ratio of fibrosis Metavir score to duration of infection. Stage-specific fibrosis progression rates were obtained using a Markov model. Risk factors were assessed by univariate and multivariate regression models. RESULTS: Independent risk factors for accelerated stage-constant fibrosis progression (>0.083 fibrosis units/year) included male sex (OR=1.60, [95% CI 1.21-2.12], P<0.001), age at infection (OR=1.08, [1.06-1.09], P<0.001), histological activity (OR=2.03, [1.54-2.68], P<0.001) and genotype 3 (OR=1.89, [1.37-2.61], P<0.001). Slower progression rates were observed in patients infected by blood transfusion (P=0.02) and invasive procedures or needle stick (P=0.03), compared to those infected by intravenous drug use. Maximum likelihood estimates (95% CI) of stage-specific progression rates (fibrosis units/year) for genotype 3 versus the other genotypes were: F0-->F1: 0.126 (0.106-0.145) versus 0.091 (0.083-0.100), F1-->F2: 0.099 (0.080-0.117) versus 0.065 (0.058-0.073), F2-->F3: 0.077 (0.058-0.096) versus 0.068 (0.057-0.080) and F3-->F4: 0.171 (0.106-0.236) versus 0.112 (0.083-0.142, overall P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis using both stage-constant and stage-specific estimates of fibrosis progression rates. This observation may have important consequences for the management of patients infected with this genotype.

Hodgkin lymphoma in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) risk is elevated among persons infected with HIV (PHIV) and has been suggested to have increased in the era of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). Among 14,606 PHIV followed more than 20 years in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), determinants of HL were investigated using 2 different approaches, namely, a cohort and nested case-control study, estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and matched odds ratios, respectively. Forty-seven incident HL cases occurred during 84,611 person-years of SHCS follow-up. HL risk was significantly higher among men having sex with men (HR vs intravenous drug users = 2.44, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-5.24) but did not vary by calendar period (HR for 2002-2007 vs 1995 or earlier = 0.65, 95% CI, 0.29-1.44) or cART use (HR vs nonusers = 1.02, 95% CI, 0.53-1.94). HL risk tended to increase with declining CD4(+) cell counts, but these differences were not significant. A lower CD4(+)/CD8(+) ratio at SHCS enrollment or 1 to 2 years before HL diagnosis, however, was significantly associated with increased HL risk. In conclusion, HL risk does not appear to be increasing in recent years or among PHIV using cART in Switzerland, and there was no evidence that HL risk should be increased in the setting of improved immunity.

Oral manifestations of HIV/AIDS in China: a review

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to review the Chinese-language medical and dental literature from 1982 to 2008 on oral manifestations (OMs) of patients with HIV/AIDS for introducing the spectrum of OMs of the patients in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All data were extracted from 18 references which had used diagnostic criteria for HIV/AIDS. Four of the references had used the EC-Clearinghouse classification for oral lesions in HIV infection. The feasible overall rate and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of the data on OMs were calculated. RESULTS: Risk group analysis revealed that, of 203 patients, 64.3% were men and 35.7% were women (age range, 5 months to 64 years; mean age in three studies, 34.0, 34.3, and 36.1 years). Of these patients, 22.2% were infected by sexual contacts, 11.8% by intravenous drug use (IDU), 59.6% by blood or its products, 2.9% by mother to child transmission, and 3.4% were unclear. In 203 patients, oral candidiasis (OC) was the most common lesion (66%, 95%CI = 59.48-72.52%), followed by herpes simplex (HS) (22.2%, 95%CI = 16.48-27.92%), ulcerative stomatitis (14.8%, 95%CI = 9.92-19.68%), salivary gland disease (11.3%, 95%CI = 6.94-15.66%), oral hairy leukoplakia (OHL) (9.8%, 95%CI = 5.71-13.89%), necrotizing gingivitis (5.9%, 95%CI = 2.66-9.14%), Kaposi's sarcoma (2.9%, 95%CI = 0.59-5.21%), other malignant tumors (2.9%, 95%CI = 0.59-5.21%), and linear gingival erythema (2.0%, 95%CI = 0.07-3.93%). CONCLUSIONS: The spectrum of OMs reported from China is similar to that described in the international literature. Present data are useful to supplement international resources of HIV/AIDS research.

Mortality from HIV and TB coinfections is higher in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe and Argentina

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients worldwide. We aimed to study clinical characteristics and outcome of 1075 consecutive patients diagnosed with HIV/TB from 2004 to 2006 in Europe and Argentina. METHODS: One-year mortality was assessed in patients stratified according to region of residence, and factors associated with death were evaluated in multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: At TB diagnosis, patients in Eastern Europe had less advanced immunodeficiency, whereas a greater proportion had a history of intravenous drug use, coinfection with hepatitis C, disseminated TB, and infection with drug-resistant TB (P < 0.0001). In Eastern Europe, fewer patients initiated TB treatment containing at least rifamycin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide or combination antiretroviral therapy (P < 0.0001). Mortality at 1 year was 27% in Eastern Europe, compared with 7, 9 and 11% in Central/Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and Argentina, respectively (P < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, the adjusted relative hazard of death was significantly lower in each of the other regions compared with Eastern Europe: 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.17-0.65), 0.28 (0.14-0.57), 0.34 (0.15-0.77) in Argentina, Southern Europe and Central/Northern Europe, respectively. Factors significantly associated with increased mortality were CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/microl [2.31 (1.56-3.45)], prior AIDS [1.74 (1.22-2.47)], disseminated TB [2.00 (1.38-2.85)], initiation of TB treatment not including rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide [1.68 (1.20-2.36)], and rifamycin resistance [2.10 (1.29-3.41)]. Adjusting for these known confounders did not explain the increased mortality seen in Eastern Europe. CONCLUSION: The poor outcome of patients with HIV/TB in Eastern Europe deserves further study and urgent public health attention.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR >2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.

HHV-8 seroprevalence: a global view

BACKGROUND Human herpes virus 8 (HHV-8) is the underlying infectious cause of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and other proliferative diseases; that is, primary effusion lymphoma and multicentric Castleman disease. In regions with high HHV-8 seroprevalence in the general population, KS accounts for a major burden of disease. Outside these endemic regions, HHV-8 prevalence is high in men who have sex with men (MSM) and in migrants from endemic regions. We aim to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis in order 1) to define the global distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalence (primary objective) and 2) to identify risk factors for HHV-8 infection, with a focus on HIV status (secondary objective). METHODS/DESIGN We will include observational studies reporting data on seroprevalence of HHV-8 in children and/or adults from any region in the world. Case reports and case series as well as any studies with fewer than 50 participants will be excluded. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant conference proceedings without language restriction. Two reviewers will independently screen the identified studies and extract data on study characteristics and quality, study population, risk factors, and reported outcomes, using a standardized form. For the primary objective we will pool the data using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. For the secondary objective (association of HIV and HHV-8) we aim to pool odds ratios for the association of HIV and HHV-8 using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. Sub-group analyses and meta-regression analyses will be used to explore sources of heterogeneity, including factors such as geographical region, calendar years of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, different risk groups for sexually and parenterally transmitted infections (MSM, sex workers, hemophiliacs, intravenous drug users), comorbidities such as organ transplantation and malaria, test(s) used to measure HHV-8 infection, study design, and study quality. DISCUSSION Using the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to better define the global seroprevalence of HHV-8 and its associated risk factors. This will improve the current understanding of HHV-8 epidemiology, and could suggest measures to prevent HHV-8 infection and to reduce its associated cancer burden.

Risk Factors and Outcomes for Late Presentation for HIV-Positive Persons in Europe: Results from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe Study (COHERE)

Background Few studies have monitored late presentation (LP) of HIV infection over the European continent, including Eastern Europe. Study objectives were to explore the impact of LP on AIDS and mortality. Methods and Findings LP was defined in Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) as HIV diagnosis with a CD4 count <350/mm3 or an AIDS diagnosis within 6 months of HIV diagnosis among persons presenting for care between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2011. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with LP and Poisson regression to explore the impact on AIDS/death. 84,524 individuals from 23 cohorts in 35 countries contributed data; 45,488 were LP (53.8%). LP was highest in heterosexual males (66.1%), Southern European countries (57.0%), and persons originating from Africa (65.1%). LP decreased from 57.3% in 2000 to 51.7% in 2010/2011 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96; 95% CI 0.95–0.97). LP decreased over time in both Central and Northern Europe among homosexual men, and male and female heterosexuals, but increased over time for female heterosexuals and male intravenous drug users (IDUs) from Southern Europe and in male and female IDUs from Eastern Europe. 8,187 AIDS/deaths occurred during 327,003 person-years of follow-up. In the first year after HIV diagnosis, LP was associated with over a 13-fold increased incidence of AIDS/death in Southern Europe (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 13.02; 95% CI 8.19–20.70) and over a 6-fold increased rate in Eastern Europe (aIRR 6.64; 95% CI 3.55–12.43). Conclusions LP has decreased over time across Europe, but remains a significant issue in the region in all HIV exposure groups. LP increased in male IDUs and female heterosexuals from Southern Europe and IDUs in Eastern Europe. LP was associated with an increased rate of AIDS/deaths, particularly in the first year after HIV diagnosis, with significant variation across Europe. Earlier and more widespread testing, timely referrals after testing positive, and improved retention in care strategies are required to further reduce the incidence of LP.