A multi-organisational approach for disaster preparedness and response:the use of optimisation and GIS for facility location, stock pre-positioning, resource allocation and relief distribution

From 1992 to 2012 4.4 billion people were affected by disasters with almost 2 trillion USD in damages and 1.3 million people killed worldwide. The increasing threat of disasters stresses the need to provide solutions for the challenges faced by disaster managers, such as the logistical deployment of resources required to provide relief to victims. The location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, evacuation, inventory management, resource allocation, and relief distribution have been identified to directly impact the relief provided to victims during the disaster. Managing appropriately these factors is critical to reduce suffering. Disaster management commonly attracts several organisations working alongside each other and sharing resources to cope with the emergency. Coordinating these agencies is a complex task but there is little research considering multiple organisations, and none actually optimising the number of actors required to avoid shortages and convergence. The aim of the this research is to develop a system for disaster management based on a combination of optimisation techniques and geographical information systems (GIS) to aid multi-organisational decision-making. An integrated decision system was created comprising a cartographic model implemented in GIS to discard floodable facilities, combined with two models focused on optimising the decisions regarding location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, the allocation of resources and relief distribution, along with the number of actors required to perform these activities. Three in-depth case studies in Mexico were studied gathering information from different organisations. The cartographic model proved to reduce the risk to select unsuitable facilities. The preparedness and response models showed the capacity to optimise the decisions and the number of organisations required for logistical activities, pointing towards an excess of actors involved in all cases. The system as a whole demonstrated its capacity to provide integrated support for disaster preparedness and response, along with the existence of room for improvement for Mexican organisations in flood management.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Theoretical Investigation of Intra- and Inter-cellular Spatiotemporal Calcium Patterns in Microcirculation

Microcirculatory vessels are lined by endothelial cells (ECs) which are surrounded by a single or multiple layer of smooth muscle cells (SMCs). Spontaneous and agonist induced spatiotemporal calcium (Ca2+) events are generated in ECs and SMCs, and regulated by complex bi-directional signaling between the two layers which ultimately determines the vessel tone. The contractile state of microcirculatory vessels is an important factor in the determination of vascular resistance, blood flow and blood pressure. This dissertation presents theoretical insights into some of the important and currently unresolved phenomena in microvascular tone regulation. Compartmental and continuum models of isolated EC and SMC, coupled EC-SMC and a multi-cellular vessel segment with deterministic and stochastic descriptions of the cellular components were developed, and the intra- and inter-cellular spatiotemporal Ca2+ mobilization was examined. Coupled EC-SMC model simulations captured the experimentally observed localized subcellular EC Ca2+ events arising from the opening of EC transient receptor vanilloid 4 (TRPV4) channels and inositol triphosphate receptors (IP3Rs). These localized EC Ca2+ events result in endothelium-derived hyperpolarization (EDH) and Nitric Oxide (NO) production which transmit to the adjacent SMCs to ultimately result in vasodilation. The model examined the effect of heterogeneous distribution of cellular components and channel gating kinetics in determination of the amplitude and spread of the Ca2+ events. The simulations suggested the necessity of co-localization of certain cellular components for modulation of EDH and NO responses. Isolated EC and SMC models captured intracellular Ca2+ wave like activity and predicted the necessity of non-uniform distribution of cellular components for the generation of Ca2+ waves. The simulations also suggested the role of membrane potential dynamics in regulating Ca2+ wave velocity. The multi-cellular vessel segment model examined the underlying mechanisms for the intercellular synchronization of spontaneous oscillatory Ca2+ waves in individual SMC. From local subcellular events to integrated macro-scale behavior at the vessel level, the developed multi-scale models captured basic features of vascular Ca2+ signaling and provide insights for their physiological relevance. The models provide a theoretical framework for assisting investigations on the regulation of vascular tone in health and disease.

Testing of Interposer-Based 2.5D Integrated Circuits

The unprecedented and relentless growth in the electronics industry is feeding the demand for integrated circuits (ICs) with increasing functionality and performance at minimum cost and power consumption. As predicted by Moore's law, ICs are being aggressively scaled to meet this demand. While the continuous scaling of process technology is reducing gate delays, the performance of ICs is being increasingly dominated by interconnect delays. In an effort to improve submicrometer interconnect performance, to increase packing density, and to reduce chip area and power consumption, the semiconductor industry is focusing on three-dimensional (3D) integration. However, volume production and commercial exploitation of 3D integration are not feasible yet due to significant technical hurdles.

At the present time, interposer-based 2.5D integration is emerging as a precursor to stacked 3D integration. All the dies and the interposer in a 2.5D IC must be adequately tested for product qualification. However, since the structure of 2.5D ICs is different from the traditional 2D ICs, new challenges have emerged: (1) pre-bond interposer testing, (2) lack of test access, (3) limited ability for at-speed testing, (4) high density I/O ports and interconnects, (5) reduced number of test pins, and (6) high power consumption. This research targets the above challenges and effective solutions have been developed to test both dies and the interposer.

The dissertation first introduces the basic concepts of 3D ICs and 2.5D ICs. Prior work on testing of 2.5D ICs is studied. An efficient method is presented to locate defects in a passive interposer before stacking. The proposed test architecture uses e-fuses that can be programmed to connect or disconnect functional paths inside the interposer. The concept of a die footprint is utilized for interconnect testing, and the overall assembly and test flow is described. Moreover, the concept of weighted critical area is defined and utilized to reduce test time. In order to fully determine the location of each e-fuse and the order of functional interconnects in a test path, we also present a test-path design algorithm. The proposed algorithm can generate all test paths for interconnect testing.

In order to test for opens, shorts, and interconnect delay defects in the interposer, a test architecture is proposed that is fully compatible with the IEEE 1149.1 standard and relies on an enhancement of the standard test access port (TAP) controller. To reduce test cost, a test-path design and scheduling technique is also presented that minimizes a composite cost function based on test time and the design-for-test (DfT) overhead in terms of additional through silicon vias (TSVs) and micro-bumps needed for test access. The locations of the dies on the interposer are taken into consideration in order to determine the order of dies in a test path.

To address the scenario of high density of I/O ports and interconnects, an efficient built-in self-test (BIST) technique is presented that targets the dies and the interposer interconnects. The proposed BIST architecture can be enabled by the standard TAP controller in the IEEE 1149.1 standard. The area overhead introduced by this BIST architecture is negligible; it includes two simple BIST controllers, a linear-feedback-shift-register (LFSR), a multiple-input-signature-register (MISR), and some extensions to the boundary-scan cells in the dies on the interposer. With these extensions, all boundary-scan cells can be used for self-configuration and self-diagnosis during interconnect testing. To reduce the overall test cost, a test scheduling and optimization technique under power constraints is described.

In order to accomplish testing with a small number test pins, the dissertation presents two efficient ExTest scheduling strategies that implements interconnect testing between tiles inside an system on chip (SoC) die on the interposer while satisfying the practical constraint that the number of required test pins cannot exceed the number of available pins at the chip level. The tiles in the SoC are divided into groups based on the manner in which they are interconnected. In order to minimize the test time, two optimization solutions are introduced. The first solution minimizes the number of input test pins, and the second solution minimizes the number output test pins. In addition, two subgroup configuration methods are further proposed to generate subgroups inside each test group.

Finally, the dissertation presents a programmable method for shift-clock stagger assignment to reduce power supply noise during SoC die testing in 2.5D ICs. An SoC die in the 2.5D IC is typically composed of several blocks and two neighboring blocks that share the same power rails should not be toggled at the same time during shift. Therefore, the proposed programmable method does not assign the same stagger value to neighboring blocks. The positions of all blocks are first analyzed and the shared boundary length between blocks is then calculated. Based on the position relationships between the blocks, a mathematical model is presented to derive optimal result for small-to-medium sized problems. For larger designs, a heuristic algorithm is proposed and evaluated.

In summary, the dissertation targets important design and optimization problems related to testing of interposer-based 2.5D ICs. The proposed research has led to theoretical insights, experiment results, and a set of test and design-for-test methods to make testing effective and feasible from a cost perspective.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Murine Models of Diastolic Dysfunction and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction leads to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, an increasingly prevalent condition largely driven by modern day lifestyle risk factors. As heart failure with preserved ejection fraction accounts for almost one-half of all patients with heart failure, appropriate nonhuman animal models are required to improve our understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome and to provide a platform for preclinical investigation of potential therapies. Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes are major risk factors for diastolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. This review focuses on murine models reflecting this disease continuum driven by the aforementioned common risk factors. We describe various models of diastolic dysfunction and highlight models of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction reported in the literature. Strengths and weaknesses of the different models are discussed to provide an aid to translational scientists when selecting an appropriate model. We also bring attention to the fact that heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is difficult to diagnose in animal models and that, therefore, there is a paucity of well described animal models of this increasingly important condition.

On the Virtualization of CUDA Based GPU Remoting on ARM and X86 Machines in the GVirtuS Framework

The astonishing development of diverse and different hardware platforms is twofold: on one side, the challenge for the exascale performance for big data processing and management; on the other side, the mobile and embedded devices for data collection and human machine interaction. This drove to a highly hierarchical evolution of programming models. GVirtuS is the general virtualization system developed in 2009 and firstly introduced in 2010 enabling a completely transparent layer among GPUs and VMs. This paper shows the latest achievements and developments of GVirtuS, now supporting CUDA 6.5, memory management and scheduling. Thanks to the new and improved remoting capabilities, GVirtus now enables GPU sharing among physical and virtual machines based on x86 and ARM CPUs on local workstations,computing clusters and distributed cloud appliances.

Predicting polarization signatures for double-detonation and delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernovae

Calculations of synthetic spectropolarimetry are one means to test multidimensional explosion models for Type Ia supernovae. In a recent paper, we demonstrated that the violent merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ white dwarf binary system is too asymmetric to explain the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Here, we present polarization simulations for two alternative scenarios: the sub-Chandrasekhar mass double-detonation and the Chandrasekhar mass delayed-detonation model. Specifically, we study a 2D double-detonation model and a 3D delayed-detonation model, and calculate polarization spectra for multiple observer orientations in both cases. We find modest polarization levels (<1 per cent) for both explosion models. Polarization in the continuum peaks at ∼0.1–0.3 per cent and decreases after maximum light, in excellent agreement with spectropolarimetric data of normal Type Ia supernovae. Higher degrees of polarization are found across individual spectral lines. In particular, the synthetic Si II λ6355 profiles are polarized at levels that match remarkably well the values observed in normal Type Ia supernovae, while the low degrees of polarization predicted across the O I λ7774 region are consistent with the non-detection of this feature in current data. We conclude that our models can reproduce many of the characteristics of both flux and polarization spectra for well-studied Type Ia supernovae, such as SN 2001el and SN 2012fr. However, the two models considered here cannot account for the unusually high level of polarization observed in extreme cases such as SN 2004dt.

New methods for movement technique development in cross-country skiing using mathematical models and simulation

This Licentiate Thesis is devoted to the presentation and discussion of some new contributions in applied mathematics directed towards scientific computing in sports engineering. It considers inverse problems of biomechanical simulations with rigid body musculoskeletal systems especially in cross-country skiing. This is a contrast to the main research on cross-country skiing biomechanics, which is based mainly on experimental testing alone. The thesis consists of an introduction and five papers. The introduction motivates the context of the papers and puts them into a more general framework. Two papers (D and E) consider studies of real questions in cross-country skiing, which are modelled and simulated. The results give some interesting indications, concerning these challenging questions, which can be used as a basis for further research. However, the measurements are not accurate enough to give the final answers. Paper C is a simulation study which is more extensive than paper D and E, and is compared to electromyography measurements in the literature. Validation in biomechanical simulations is difficult and reducing mathematical errors is one way of reaching closer to more realistic results. Paper A examines well-posedness for forward dynamics with full muscle dynamics. Moreover, paper B is a technical report which describes the problem formulation and mathematical models and simulation from paper A in more detail. Our new modelling together with the simulations enable new possibilities. This is similar to simulations of applications in other engineering fields, and need in the same way be handled with care in order to achieve reliable results. The results in this thesis indicate that it can be very useful to use mathematical modelling and numerical simulations when describing cross-country skiing biomechanics. Hence, this thesis contributes to the possibility of beginning to use and develop such modelling and simulation techniques also in this context.

Improving risk stratification in non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with combined assessment of GRACE and CRUSADE risk scores

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment is fundamental in the management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), enabling estimation of prognosis. AIMS: To evaluate whether the combined use of GRACE and CRUSADE risk stratification schemes in patients with myocardial infarction outperforms each of the scores individually in terms of mortality and haemorrhagic risk prediction. METHODS: Observational retrospective single-centre cohort study including 566 consecutive patients admitted for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The CRUSADE model increased GRACE discriminatory performance in predicting all-cause mortality, ascertained by Cox regression, demonstrating CRUSADE independent and additive predictive value, which was sustained throughout follow-up. The cohort was divided into four different subgroups: G1 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE<41); G2 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE≥41); G3 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE<41); G4 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE≥41). RESULTS: Outcomes and variables estimating clinical severity, such as admission Killip-Kimbal class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction, deteriorated progressively throughout the subgroups (G1 to G4). Survival analysis differentiated three risk strata (G1, lowest risk; G2 and G3, intermediate risk; G4, highest risk). The GRACE+CRUSADE model revealed higher prognostic performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.76) than GRACE alone (AUC 0.70) for mortality prediction, further confirmed by the integrated discrimination improvement index. Moreover, GRACE+CRUSADE combined risk assessment seemed to be valuable in delineating bleeding risk in this setting, identifying G4 as a very high-risk subgroup (hazard ratio 3.5; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Combined risk stratification with GRACE and CRUSADE scores can improve the individual discriminatory power of GRACE and CRUSADE models in the prediction of all-cause mortality and bleeding. This combined assessment is a practical approach that is potentially advantageous in treatment decision-making.

Development and Application of Predictive Models for Survival, Growth, and Death of Enteric Pathogens in Leafy Greens Supply Chain

Leafy greens are essential part of a healthy diet. Because of their health benefits, production and consumption of leafy greens has increased considerably in the U.S. in the last few decades. However, leafy greens are also associated with a large number of foodborne disease outbreaks in the last few years. The overall goal of this dissertation was to use the current knowledge of predictive models and available data to understand the growth, survival, and death of enteric pathogens in leafy greens at pre- and post-harvest levels. Temperature plays a major role in the growth and death of bacteria in foods. A growth-death model was developed for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy greens for varying temperature conditions typically encountered during supply chain. The developed growth-death models were validated using experimental dynamic time-temperature profiles available in the literature. Furthermore, these growth-death models for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes and a similar model for E. coli O157:H7 were used to predict the growth of these pathogens in leafy greens during transportation without temperature control. Refrigeration of leafy greens meets the purposes of increasing their shelf-life and mitigating the bacterial growth, but at the same time, storage of foods at lower temperature increases the storage cost. Nonlinear programming was used to optimize the storage temperature of leafy greens during supply chain while minimizing the storage cost and maintaining the desired levels of sensory quality and microbial safety. Most of the outbreaks associated with consumption of leafy greens contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 have occurred during July-November in the U.S. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs (soil, irrigation, cattle, wildlife, and rainfall) simulating a farm in a major leafy greens producing area in California was developed. The model was simulated incorporating the events of planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. The predictions of this system model are in agreement with the seasonality of outbreaks. This dissertation utilized the growth, survival, and death models of enteric pathogens in leafy greens during production and supply chain.

Geothermal district heating networks: modelling novel operational strategies incorporating heat storage

The value of integrating a heat storage into a geothermal district heating system has been investigated. The behaviour of the system under a novel operational strategy has been simulated focusing on the energetic, economic and environmental effects of the new strategy of incorporation of the heat storage within the system. A typical geothermal district heating system consists of several production wells, a system of pipelines for the transportation of the hot water to end-users, one or more re-injection wells and peak-up devices (usually fossil-fuel boilers). Traditionally in these systems, the production wells change their production rate throughout the day according to heat demand, and if their maximum capacity is exceeded the peak-up devices are used to meet the balance of the heat demand. In this study, it is proposed to maintain a constant geothermal production and add heat storage into the network. Subsequently, hot water will be stored when heat demand is lower than the production and the stored hot water will be released into the system to cover the peak demands (or part of these). It is not intended to totally phase-out the peak-up devices, but to decrease their use, as these will often be installed anyway for back-up purposes. Both the integration of a heat storage in such a system as well as the novel operational strategy are the main novelties of this thesis. A robust algorithm for the sizing of these systems has been developed. The main inputs are the geothermal production data, the heat demand data throughout one year or more and the topology of the installation. The outputs are the sizing of the whole system, including the necessary number of production wells, the size of the heat storage and the dimensions of the pipelines amongst others. The results provide several useful insights into the initial design considerations for these systems, emphasizing particularly the importance of heat losses. Simulations are carried out for three different cases of sizing of the installation (small, medium and large) to examine the influence of system scale. In the second phase of work, two algorithms are developed which study in detail the operation of the installation throughout a random day and a whole year, respectively. The first algorithm can be a potentially powerful tool for the operators of the installation, who can know a priori how to operate the installation on a random day given the heat demand. The second algorithm is used to obtain the amount of electricity used by the pumps as well as the amount of fuel used by the peak-up boilers over a whole year. These comprise the main operational costs of the installation and are among the main inputs of the third part of the study. In the third part of the study, an integrated energetic, economic and environmental analysis of the studied installation is carried out together with a comparison with the traditional case. The results show that by implementing heat storage under the novel operational strategy, heat is generated more cheaply as all the financial indices improve, more geothermal energy is utilised and less fuel is used in the peak-up boilers, with subsequent environmental benefits, when compared to the traditional case. Furthermore, it is shown that the most attractive case of sizing is the large one, although the addition of the heat storage most greatly impacts the medium case of sizing. In other words, the geothermal component of the installation should be sized as large as possible. This analysis indicates that the proposed solution is beneficial from energetic, economic, and environmental perspectives. Therefore, it can be stated that the aim of this study is achieved in its full potential. Furthermore, the new models for the sizing, operation and economic/energetic/environmental analyses of these kind of systems can be used with few adaptations for real cases, making the practical applicability of this study evident. Having this study as a starting point, further work could include the integration of these systems with end-user demands, further analysis of component parts of the installation (such as the heat exchangers) and the integration of a heat pump to maximise utilisation of geothermal energy.

Data-Aware Scheduling in Datacenters

Datacenters have emerged as the dominant form of computing infrastructure over the last two decades. The tremendous increase in the requirements of data analysis has led to a proportional increase in power consumption and datacenters are now one of the fastest growing electricity consumers in the United States. Another rising concern is the loss of throughput due to network congestion. Scheduling models that do not explicitly account for data placement may lead to a transfer of large amounts of data over the network causing unacceptable delays. In this dissertation, we study different scheduling models that are inspired by the dual objectives of minimizing energy costs and network congestion in a datacenter. As datacenters are equipped to handle peak workloads, the average server utilization in most datacenters is very low. As a result, one can achieve huge energy savings by selectively shutting down machines when demand is low. In this dissertation, we introduce the network-aware machine activation problem to find a schedule that simultaneously minimizes the number of machines necessary and the congestion incurred in the network. Our model significantly generalizes well-studied combinatorial optimization problems such as hard-capacitated hypergraph covering and is thus strongly NP-hard. As a result, we focus on finding good approximation algorithms. Data-parallel computation frameworks such as MapReduce have popularized the design of applications that require a large amount of communication between different machines. Efficient scheduling of these communication demands is essential to guarantee efficient execution of the different applications. In the second part of the thesis, we study the approximability of the co-flow scheduling problem that has been recently introduced to capture these application-level demands. Finally, we also study the question, "In what order should one process jobs?'' Often, precedence constraints specify a partial order over the set of jobs and the objective is to find suitable schedules that satisfy the partial order. However, in the presence of hard deadline constraints, it may be impossible to find a schedule that satisfies all precedence constraints. In this thesis we formalize different variants of job scheduling with soft precedence constraints and conduct the first systematic study of these problems.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Movement Sonification: Effects on Motor Learning beyond Rhythmic Adjustments

Motor learning is based on motor perception and emergent perceptual-motor representations. A lot of behavioral research is related to single perceptual modalities but during last two decades the contribution of multimodal perception on motor behavior was discovered more and more. A growing number of studies indicates an enhanced impact of multimodal stimuli on motor perception, motor control and motor learning in terms of better precision and higher reliability of the related actions. Behavioral research is supported by neurophysiological data, revealing that multisensory integration supports motor control and learning. But the overwhelming part of both research lines is dedicated to basic research. Besides research in the domains of music, dance and motor rehabilitation, there is almost no evidence for enhanced effectiveness of multisensory information on learning of gross motor skills. To reduce this gap, movement sonification is used here in applied research on motor learning in sports. Based on the current knowledge on the multimodal organization of the perceptual system, we generate additional real-time movement information being suitable for integration with perceptual feedback streams of visual and proprioceptive modality. With ongoing training, synchronously processed auditory information should be initially integrated into the emerging internal models, enhancing the efficacy of motor learning. This is achieved by a direct mapping of kinematic and dynamic motion parameters to electronic sounds, resulting in continuous auditory and convergent audiovisual or audio-proprioceptive stimulus arrays. In sharp contrast to other approaches using acoustic information as error-feedback in motor learning settings, we try to generate additional movement information suitable for acceleration and enhancement of adequate sensorimotor representations and processible below the level of consciousness. In the experimental setting, participants were asked to learn a closed motor skill (technique acquisition of indoor rowing). One group was treated with visual information and two groups with audiovisual information (sonification vs. natural sounds). For all three groups learning became evident and remained stable. Participants treated with additional movement sonification showed better performance compared to both other groups. Results indicate that movement sonification enhances motor learning of a complex gross motor skill-even exceeding usually expected acoustic rhythmic effects on motor learning.