Identifying indicators of sustainable development using the global sustainability quadrant approach

Advances in information technology and global data availability have opened the door for assessments of sustainable development at a truly macro scale. It is now fairly easy to conduct a study of sustainability using the entire planet as the unit of analysis; this is precisely what this work set out to accomplish. The study began by examining some of the best known composite indicator frameworks developed to measure sustainability at the country level today. Most of these were found to value human development factors and a clean local environment, but to gravely overlook consumption of (remote) resources in relation to nature’s capacity to renew them, a basic requirement for a sustainable state. Thus, a new measuring standard is proposed, based on the Global Sustainability Quadrant approach. In a two‐dimensional plot of nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) vs. their Ecological Footprint (EF) per capita, the Sustainability Quadrant is defined by the area where both dimensions satisfy the minimum conditions of sustainable development: an HDI score above 0.8 (considered ‘high’ human development), and an EF below the fair Earth‐share of 2.063 global hectares per person. After developing methods to identify those countries that are closest to the Quadrant in the present‐day and, most importantly, those that are moving towards it over time, the study tackled the question: what indicators of performance set these countries apart? To answer this, an analysis of raw data, covering a wide array of environmental, social, economic, and governance performance metrics, was undertaken. The analysis used country rank lists for each individual metric and compared them, using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation function, to the rank lists generated by the proximity/movement relative to the Quadrant measuring methods. The analysis yielded a list of metrics which are, with a high degree of statistical significance, associated with proximity to – and movement towards – the Quadrant; most notably: Favorable for sustainable development: use of contraception, high life expectancy, high literacy rate, and urbanization. Unfavorable for sustainable development: high GDP per capita, high language diversity, high energy consumption, and high meat consumption. A momentary gain, but a burden in the long‐run: high carbon footprint and debt. These results could serve as a solid stepping stone for the development of more reliable composite index frameworks for assessing countries’ sustainability.

Outcome indicators for vitrectomy in Terson syndrome

PURPOSE: There is no general agreement on the best indication and timing of vitrectomy in patients suffering from Terson syndrome. Therefore, we reviewed our cases in order to assess factors interfering with the functional outcome and complication rates after vitrectomy. METHODS: In this retrospective consecutive case series, the records from all patients undergoing vitrectomy for Terson syndrome between 1975 and 2005 were evaluated. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients (45 eyes) were identified, 36 of whom (44 corresponding eyes) were eligible. The best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at first and last presentation was 0.07 +/- 0.12 and 0.72 +/- 0.31, respectively. Thirty-five eyes (79.5%) achieved a postoperative BCVA of > or = 0.5; 26 (59.1%) eyes achieved a postoperative BCVA of > or = 0.8. Patients operated on within 90 days of vitreous haemorrhage achieved a better final BCVA than those with a longer latency (BCVA of 0.87 +/- 0.27 compared to 0.66 +/- 0.31; P = 0.03). Patients younger than 45 years of age achieved a better final BCVA than older patients (0.85 +/- 0.24 compared to 0.60 +/- 0.33; P = 0.006). Retinal detachment developed in four patients between 6 and 27 months after surgery. Seven patients (16%) required epiretinal membrane peeling and seven cataract surgery. CONCLUSION: Ninety-eight per cent of our patients experienced a rapid and persisting visual recovery after removal of a vitreous haemorrhage caused by Terson syndrome. A shorter time between occurrence of vitreous haemorrhage and surgery as well as a younger patient age are predictive of a better outcome. Generally, the surgical risk is low, but complications (namely retinal detachment) may occur late after surgery.

Early biochemical indicators of the obliterative bronchiolitis syndrome in lung transplantation

The diagnosis of the obliterative bronchiolitis syndrome in lung transplantation is presently best established by evaluation of postoperative lung function tests. Unfortunately the decline in lung function occurs only when obliteration has progressed significantly and is therefore not an early predictive indicator. To distinguish patients at increased risk for the development of obliterative bronchiolitis, we regularly assessed the chemiluminescence response of polymorphonuclear leukocytes, opsonic capacity, and plasma elastase/beta-N-acetylglucosaminidase in 52 outpatients (25 women and 27 men; mean age 45 +/- 12 years) who underwent transplantation between January 1991 and January 1992. Recent onset bronchiolitis within the described observation period occurred in 16 patients (group obliterative bronchiolitis). A matched cohort of 16 patients was formed according to type of procedure, age and follow-up (control) from the remaining 36 patients. Data obtained from a period 6 months before clinical onset of the syndrome showed a significant drop of the opsonic capacity (group obliterative bronchiolitis = 87% +/- 7%; control = 100% +/- 9%; p < 0.023) and rise of the N-acetyl-D-glucosaminidase (group obliterative bronchiolitis = 7.5 +/- 2 U/L; control = 5.8 +/- 1.8 U/L; p < 0.04). No correlation was found between the number of infectious events or rejection episodes and the incidence of obliterative bronchiolitis. According to these results, it can be concluded that a decrease in the plasma opsonic capacity and a rise in beta-N-acetylglucosaminidase may be early markers before clinical onset of obliterative bronchiolitis. The nonspecific immune system may therefore play an important role in the development of obliterative bronchiolitis.

Early serum procalcitonin, interleukin-6, and 24-hour lactate clearance: useful indicators of septic infections in severely traumatized patients

BACKGROUND: Elevated lactate and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were shown to correlate with mortality and multiple organ dysfunction in severely traumatized patients. The purpose of this study was to test whether an association exists between 24-hour lactate clearance, IL-6 and procalcitonin (PCT) levels, and the development of infectious complications in trauma patients. METHODS: A total of 1757 consecutive trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 16 admitted over a 10-year period were retrospectively analyzed over a 21-day period. Exclusion criteria included death within 72 h of admission (24.5%), late admission > 12 h after injury (16%), and age < 16 years (0.5%). Data are stated as the median (range). RESULTS: Altogether, 1032 trauma patients (76.2% male) with an average age of 38 years, a median ISS of 29 (16-75), and an Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score of 14 (0-40) were evaluated. The in-hospital mortality (>3 days) was 10%. Patients with insufficient 24-hour lactate clearance had a high rate of overall mortality and infections. Elevated early serum procalcitonin on days 1 to 5 after trauma was strongly associated with the subsequent development of sepsis (p < 0.01) but not with nonseptic infections. The kinetics of IL-6 were similar to those of PCT but did differentiate between infected and noninfected patients after day 5. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that elevated early procalcitonin and IL-6 levels and inadequate 24-hour lactate clearance help identify trauma patients who develop septic and nonseptic infectious complications. Definition of specific cutoff values and early monitoring of these parameters may help direct early surgical and antibiotic therapy and reduce infectious mortality.

Community mean traits as additional indicators to monitor effects of land-use intensity on grassland plant diversity

Semi-natural grasslands, biodiversity hotspots in Central-Europe, suffer from the cessation of traditional land-use. Amount and intensity of these changes challenge current monitoring frameworks typically based on classic indicators such as selected target species or diversity indices. Indicators based on plant functional traits provide an interesting extension since they reflect ecological strategies at individual and ecological processes at community levels. They typically show convergent responses to gradients of land-use intensity over scales and regions, are more directly related to environmental drivers than diversity components themselves and enable detecting directional changes in whole community dynamics. However, probably due to their labor- and cost intensive assessment in the field, they have been rarely applied as indicators so far. Here we suggest overcoming these limitations by calculating indicators with plant traits derived from online accessible databases. Aiming to provide a minimal trait set to monitor effects of land-use intensification on plant diversity we investigated relationships between 12 community mean traits, 2 diversity indices and 6 predictors of land-use intensity within grassland communities of 3 different regions in Germany (part of the German ‘Biodiversity Exploratory’ research network). By standardization of traits and diversity measures, use of null models and linear mixed models we confirmed (i) strong links between functional community composition and plant diversity, (ii) that traits are closely related to land-use intensity, and (iii) that functional indicators are equally, or even more sensitive to land-use intensity than traditional diversity indices. The deduced trait set consisted of 5 traits, i.e., specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), seed release height, leaf distribution, and onset of flowering. These database derived traits enable the early detection of changes in community structure indicative for future diversity loss. As an addition to current monitoring measures they allow to better link environmental drivers to processes controlling community dynamics.

Analysis of polygonal cracking patterns in chloride-bearing terrains on Mars: Indicators of ancient playa settings

The ancient southern highlands on Mars (~3.5 Gyr old) contain > 600 regions that display spectral evidence in the infrared for the presence of chloride-bearing materials. Many of these locations were previously reported to display polygonal cracking patterns. We studied more than 80 of the chloride-bearing terrains using high-resolution (0.25-0.5 m/pixel) images, as well as near-infrared spectral data, to characterize the surface textures and the associated cracking patterns and mineralogies. Our study indicates that ~75% of the studied locations display polygonal cracks that resemble desiccation cracks, while some resemble salt expansion/thrust polygons. Furthermore, we detect, spectrally, the presence of smectites in association with ~30% of the studied fractured terrains. We note that smectites are a special class of swelling clay minerals that can induce formation of large desiccation cracks. As such, we suggest that the cracking patterns are indicative of the presence of smectite phyllosilicates even in the absence of spectral confirmation. Our results suggest that many chloride-bearing terrains have a lacustrine origin and a geologic setting similar to playas on Earth. Such locations would have contained ephemeral lakes that may have undergone repeated cycles of desiccation and recharging by a near-surface fluctuating water table in order to account for the salt-phyllosilicates associations. These results have notable implications for the ancient hydrology of Mars. We propose that the morphologies and sizes of the polygonal cracks can be used as paleoenvironmental, as well as lithological, indicators that could be helpful in planning future missions.

Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.