The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Flexural capacity of hollow flange beams

The hollow flange beam (HFB) is a unique cold-formed steel section developed in Australia for use as a flexural member. Research has identified that the HFB section's flexural capacity for intermediate span members is limited by lateral distortional buckling, which is characterized by simultaneous lateral deflection, twist, and web distortion. This buckling behaviour is mainly due to the unique geometry of the section, comprising two torsionally stiff triangular flanges connected by a slender web. This paper presents a finite element analytical model suitable for non-linear analysis of HFB flexural members. The model includes all significant effects that may influence the ultimate capacity of such members, including material inelasticity, local buckling, member instability, web distortion, residual stresses, and geometric imperfections. It was found to accurately predict both the elastic lateral distortional buckling moments and the ultimate capacities of HFB flexural members, and was therefore used in the development of design curves and suitable design procedures.

Students' cultural capital : a study of assessment for learning as a field of exchange

This study was conducted within the context of a flexible education institution where conventional educational assessment practices and tests fail to recognise and assess the creativity and cultural capital of a cohort of marginalised young people. A new assessment model which included an electronic-portfolio-social-networking system (EPS) was developed and trialled to identify and exhibit evidence of students' learning. The study aimed to discern unique forms of cultural capital (Bourdieu, 1986) possessed by students who attend the Edmund Rice Education Australia Flexible Learning Centre Network (EREAFLCN). The EPS was trialled at the case study schools in an intervention and developed a space where students could make evident culturally specific forms of capital and funds of knowledge (Gonzalez, Moll, & Amanti, 2005). These resources were evaluated, modified and developed through dialogic processes utilising assessment for learning approaches (Qualifications and Curriculum Development Agency, 2009) in online and classroom settings. Students, peers and staff engaged in the recognition, judgement, revision and evaluation of students' cultural capital in a subfield of exchange (Bourdieu, 1990). The study developed the theory of assessment for learning as a field of exchange incorporating an online system as a teaching and assessment model. The term efield has been coined to describe this particular capital exchange model. A quasi-ethnographic approach was used to develop a collective case study (Stake, 1995). This case study involved an in-depth exploration of five students' forms of cultural capital and the ways in which this capital could be assessed and exchanged using the efield model. A comparative analysis of the five cases was conducted to identify the emergent issues of students' recognisable cultural capital resources and the processes of exchange that can be facilitated to acquire legitimate credentials for these students in the Australian field of education. The participants in the study were young people at two EREAFLC schools aged between 12 and 18 years. Data was collected through interviews, observations and examination of documents made available by the EREAFLCN. The data was coded and analysed using a theoretical framework based on Bourdieu's analytical tools and a sociocultural psychology theoretical perspective. Findings suggest that processes based on dialogic relationships can identify and recognise students' forms of cultural capital that are frequently misrecognised in mainstream school environments. The theory of assessment for learning as a field of exchange was developed into praxis and integrated in an intervention. The efield model was found to be an effective sociocultural tool in converting and exchanging students' capital resources for legitimated cultural and symbolic capital in the field of education.

Shear capacity of lipped channel beams with web openings : design rules and improvements

Cold-formed steel Lipped Channel Beams (LCB) with web openings are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in building structures. Shear behaviour of these beams is more complicated and their shear capacities are considerably reduced by the presence of web openings. Hence detailed numerical and experimental studies of simply supported LCBs under a mid-span load with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Experimental and numerical results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel structures design codes are very conservative. Improved design equations were therefore proposed for the shear strength of LCBs with web openings based on both experimental and numerical results. This research showed a significant reduction in shear capacities of LCBs when large web openings are included for the purpose of locating building services. A cost effective method of eliminating such detrimental effects of large circular web openings was also therefore investigated using experimental and numerical studies. For this purpose LCBS were reinforced using plate, stud, transverse and sleeve stiffeners with varying sizes and thicknesses that were welded and screw-fastened to the web of LCBs. These studies showed that plate stiffeners were the most suitable. Suitable screw-fastened plate stiffener arrangements with optimum thicknesses were then proposed for LCBs with web openings to restore their original shear capacities. This paper presents the details of finite element analyses and experiments of LCBs with web openings in shear, and the development of improved shear design rules. It then describes the experimental and numerical studies to determine the optimum plate stiffener arrangements and the results. The proposed shear design rules in this paper can be considered for inclusion in the future versions of cold-formed steel design codes.

Ergodic capacity and outage performance of amplify-and-forward protocols

This thesis analyses the performance bounds of amplify-and-forward relay channels which are becoming increasingly popular in wireless communication applications. The statistics of cascaded Nakagami-m fading model which is a major obstacle in evaluating the outage of wireless networks is analysed using Mellin transform. Furthermore, the upper and the lower bounds for the ergodic capacity of the slotted amplify-and-forward relay channel, for finite and infinite number of relays are derived using random matrix theory. The results obtained will enable wireless network designers to optimize the network resources, benefiting the consumers.

On the periodicity of traffic oscillations and capacity drop : the role of driver characteristics

This paper shows that traffic hysteresis, a manifestation of driver characteristics, has a profound impact on the development of traffic oscillations and the bottleneck discharge rate. Findings suggest that aggressive driver behavior (with small response times and jammed spacing) leads to spontaneous formations of stop-and-go disturbances. Furthermore, the aggressive behavior, coupled with a late response to adopt less aggressive behavior, generates large hysteresis that leads to oscillations’ transformation from localized to substantial disturbances and growth. The larger the magnitude of hysteresis is, the larger the growth is. Our finding also suggests that the bottleneck discharge rate can diminish by 8-23% when driver adopts a less aggressive reaction to a disturbance (characterized by a larger response time). This finding is particularly notable since lane-changes have been believed to be the major cause of a reduction in bottleneck discharge rate.

Hemi-field and full-field form-deprivation induce timing changes in multifocal ERG responses in chick

Purpose: In animal models hemi-field deprivation results in localised, graded vitreous chamber elongation and presumably deprivation induced localised changes in retinal processing. The aim of this research was to determine if there are variations in ERG responses across the retina in normal chick eyes and to examine the effect of hemi-field and full-field deprivation on ERG responses across the retina and at earlier times than have previously been examined electrophysiologically. Methods: Chicks were either untreated, wore monocular full-diffusers or half-diffusers (depriving nasal retina) (n = 6-8 each group) from day 8. mfERG responses were measured using the VERIS mfERG system across the central 18.2º× 16.7º (H × V) field. The stimulus consisted of 61 unscaled hexagons with each hexagon modulated between black and white according to a pseudorandom binary m-sequence. The mfERG was measured on day 12 in untreated chicks, following 4 days of hemi-field diffuser wear, and 2, 48 and 96 h after application of full-field diffusers. Results: The ERG response of untreated chick eyes did not vary across the measured field; there was no effect of retinal location on the N1-P1 amplitude (p = 0.108) or on P1 implicit time (p > 0.05). This finding is consistent with retinal ganglion cell density of the chick varying by only a factor of two across the entire retina. Half-diffusers produced a ramped retina and a graded effect of negative lens correction (p < 0.0001); changes in retinal processing were localized. The untreated retina showed increasing complexity of the ERG waveform with development; form-deprivation prevented the increasing complexity of the response at the 2, 48 and 96 h measurement times and produced alterations in response timing. Conclusions: Form-deprivation and its concomitant loss of image contrast and high spatial frequency images prevented development of the ERG responses, consistent with a disruption of development of retinal feedback systems. The characterisation of ERG responses in normal and deprived chick eyes across the retina allows the assessment of concurrent visual and retinal manipulations in this model. (Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2013 The College of Optometrists.)

The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model : an Australian case study

Carrying capacity assessments model a population’s potential self-sufficiency. A crucial first step in the development of such modelling is to examine the basic resource-based parameters defining the population’s production and consumption habits. These parameters include basic human needs such as food, water, shelter and energy together with climatic, environmental and behavioural characteristics. Each of these parameters imparts land-usage requirements in different ways and varied degrees so their incorporation into carrying capacity modelling also differs. Given that the availability and values of production parameters may differ between locations, no two carrying capacity models are likely to be exactly alike. However, the essential parameters themselves can remain consistent so one example, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, is offered as a case study to highlight one way in which these parameters are utilised. While examples exist of findings made from carrying capacity assessment modelling, to date, guidelines for replication of such studies in other regions and scales have largely been overlooked. This paper addresses such shortcomings by describing a process for the inclusion and calibration of the most important resource-based parameters in a way that could be repeated elsewhere.

The impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcome of Bayesian spatial model

Discretization of a geographical region is quite common in spatial analysis. There have been few studies into the impact of different geographical scales on the outcome of spatial models for different spatial patterns. This study aims to investigate the impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcomes of modelling spatial point-based data. Given a spatial point-based dataset (such as occurrence of a disease), we study the geographical variation of residual disease risk using regular grid cells. The individual disease risk is modelled using a logistic model with the inclusion of spatially unstructured and/or spatially structured random effects. Three spatial smoothness priors for the spatially structured component are employed in modelling, namely an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field, a second-order random walk on a lattice, and a Gaussian field with Matern correlation function. We investigate how changes in grid cell size affect model outcomes under different spatial structures and different smoothness priors for the spatial component. A realistic example (the Humberside data) is analyzed and a simulation study is described. Bayesian computation is carried out using an integrated nested Laplace approximation. The results suggest that the performance and predictive capacity of the spatial models improve as the grid cell size decreases for certain spatial structures. It also appears that different spatial smoothness priors should be applied for different patterns of point data.

Perdido : the first Smart Field in the western hemisphere

Located in the Gulf of Mexico in nearly 8,000 feet of water, the Perdido development is the world’s deepest spar and Shell’s first Smart Field in the Western hemisphere. Jointly developed by Shell, BP, and Chevron, the spar and the subsea equipment connected to it will eventually capture approximately an order of magnitude more data than is collected from any other Shell-designed and managed development currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico. This paper will describe Shell’s Smart Fields design philosophy, briefly explain the five design elements that underpin “smartness” in Shell’s North and South American operations—specifically, remote assisted operations, exception-based surveillance, collaborative work environments, hydrocarbon development tools and workflows, and Smart Fields Foundation IT infrastructure—and shed light on the process by which a highly customized Smart Fields development and management plan was put together for Perdido.

Building distributed leadership for effective supervision of creative practice higher research degrees : final report 2014

Building distributed leadership for effective supervision of creative practice higher research degrees is an Office for Learning and Teaching (OLT) funded project, conducted in partnership between Queensland University of Technology, The University of Melbourne, Auckland University of Technology, University of New South Wales and University of Western Sydney. The project was initiated to develop a cooperative approach to establishing an understanding of the contextual frameworks of the emergent field of creative practice higher degrees by research (HDRs); capturing early insights of administrators and supervisors; gathering exemplars of good practices; and establishing an in-common understanding of effective approaches to supervision. To this end, the project has produced: • A literature review, to provide a research foundation for creative practice higher research degree supervision (Chapter 3). • A contextual review of disciplinary frameworks for HDR programs, produced through surveys of postgraduate research administrators (Section 4.1), and an analysis of institutional materials and academic development programs for supervisors (Section 4.2). • A National Symposium, Effective Supervision of Creative Arts Research Degrees (ESCARD), at QUT in Brisbane in February 2013, with 62 delegates from 20 Australasian Universities, at which project findings were disseminated, and delegates presented case studies and position papers, and participated in discussions on key issues for supervisors (Appendix 1). • Resources, including a booklet for supervisors: 12 Principles for the Effective Supervision of Creative Practice Higher Research Degrees, which encapsulates attitudes, insights and good practices of experienced and new supervisors. It was produced through a content analysis of interviews with twenty-five supervisors in creative disciplines (visual and performing arts, music, new media, creative writing and design) (Printed booklet, PDF, Appendix 3). • A project website to disseminate project outcomes , which holds project findings, relevant references, and a repository of case studies and position papers by supervisors and program administrators. • A call for papers for a special issue ‘Supervising Practice: Perspectives on the Supervision of Creative Practice Research Higher Degrees’ of ACCESS Journal: Critical Perspectives on Communication, Cultural & Policy Studies (ERA ranked A quality) in 2014 (Appendix 2). • A community of supervisory practice initiated through project partnerships, a national symposium where supervisors from across Australasia met in dialogue for the first time, resource sharing, and joint publishing opportunities. • A set of recommendations for supervision capacity building and academic development, produced through the triangulation of literature and contextual reviews, analysis of institutional frameworks, interviews with supervisors and national dialogues. It is anticipated that the project’s outcomes will support experienced and new supervisors in this emergent field, and so benefit HDR students, and will enable creative disciplines to build supervision capacity, and so to accommodate growth in postgraduate enrolments. Funded as a pilot project, the project set out to establish a robust research base to provide a foundation for future work involving sharing good practices, resource building, and designing effective approaches to academic development for supervisors. Recommendations that were produced out of this project include the need to extend beyond generic, formal training for supervisors to academic development that harnesses and extends distributed leadership; focuses on local, disciplinary contexts; has a strong emphasis on case studies; provides diverse resources; and facilitates dialogue between supervisors. Recommendations also include developing frameworks for mentoring new supervisors and building a national network to facilitate cross-institutional discourse, disseminate good practices, and share insights into the management of risk factors, ethical issues, and preparing candidates for examination. As a pilot investigation, the outcomes of this project lay the ground for this future work.

A field experiment in moral suasion and tax compliance focusing on underdeclaration and overdeduction

One of very few field experiments in tax compliance, this study generates a unique data set on Swiss taxpayers’ underdeclaration of income and wealth and overdeduction of tax credits by obtaining exclusive access to tax-return corrections made by the tax administration. Using this commune-level data from Switzerland, it explores the influence on tax compliance of moral suasion, introduced through a treatment in which taxpayers receive a letter containing normative appeals signed by the commune’s fiscal commissioner. This letter also serves to operationalize elements of social identity and (mutual) trust. Interestingly, the results not only echo the earlier finding that moral suasion has barely any effect on taxpayer compliance, but show clear differences between underdeclaration and overdeduction.

Sexualities and sensitivities: Queer(y)ing the ethics of youth research in the field

In contemporary Western societies, the years between childhood and young adulthood are commonly understood to be (trans)formative in the reflexive project of sexual self-making (Russell et al. 2012). As sexual subjects in the making, youthful bodies, desires and sexual activities are often perceived as both volatile and vulnerable, thus subjected to instruction and discipline, protection and surveillance. Accordingly, young people’s sexual proximities are closely monitored by social institutions and ‘(hetero)normalising regimes’ (Warner 1999) for any signs that may compromise the end goal of development—a ‘normal’ reproductive heterosexual monogamous adult...