901 resultados para extinction probability


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Continuous sedimentary records from an eastern Mediterranean cold-water coral ecosystem thriving in intermediate water depths (~600 m) reveal a temporary extinction of cold-water corals during the Early to Mid Holocene from 11.4-5.9 cal kyr BP. Benthic foraminiferal assemblage analysis shows low-oxygen conditions of 2 ml l**-1 during the same period, compared to bottom-water oxygen values of 4-5 ml l**-1 before and after the coral-free interval. The timing of the corals' demise coincides with the sapropel S1 event, during which the deep eastern Mediterranean basin turned anoxic. Our results show that during the sapropel S1 event low oxygen conditions extended to the rather shallow depths of our study site in the Ionian Sea and caused the cold-water corals temporary extinction. This first evidence for the sensitivity of cold-water corals to low oceanic oxygen contents suggests that the projected expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones resulting from global change will threaten cold-water coral ecosystems in low latitudes in the same way that ocean acidification will do in the higher latitudes.

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A faunal boundary found at the base of the Brunhes Chronozone at Sites 658 and 659 confirms previous observations from several locations in the Atlantic Ocean and may be classified as a supraregional "extinction event". Several benthic foraminifer species typical of the Pliocene disappear near the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary, thus marking the upper limit of a faunal zone (faunal unit). Improved chronological dating indicates that the disappearance of these species occurs over a period of about 100,000 yr.

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A substantial extinction of megafauna occurred in Australia between 50 and 45 kyr ago, a period that coincides with human colonization of Australia. Large shifts in vegetation also occurred around this time, but it is unclear whether the vegetation changes were driven by the human use of fire-and thus contributed to the extinction event-or were a consequence of the loss of megafaunal grazers. Here we reconstruct past vegetation changes in southeastern Australia using the stable carbon isotopic composition of higher plant wax n-alkanes and levels of biomass burning from the accumulation rates of the biomarker levoglucosan from a well-dated sediment core offshore from the Murray-Darling Basin. We find that from 58 to 44 kyr ago, the abundance of plants with the C-4 carbon fixation pathway was generally high-between 60 and 70%. By 43 kyr ago, the abundance of C-4 plants dropped to 30% and biomass burning increased. This transient shift lasted for about 3,000 years and came after the period of human arrival and directly followed megafauna extinction at 48.9-43.6 kyr ago. We conclude that the vegetation shift was not the cause of the megafaunal extinction in this region. Instead, our data are consistent with the hypothesis that vegetation change was the consequence of the extinction of large browsers and led to the build-up of fire-prone vegetation in the Australian landscape.

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To deliver sample estimates provided with the necessary probability foundation to permit generalization from the sample data subset to the whole target population being sampled, probability sampling strategies are required to satisfy three necessary not sufficient conditions: (i) All inclusion probabilities be greater than zero in the target population to be sampled. If some sampling units have an inclusion probability of zero, then a map accuracy assessment does not represent the entire target region depicted in the map to be assessed. (ii) The inclusion probabilities must be: (a) knowable for nonsampled units and (b) known for those units selected in the sample: since the inclusion probability determines the weight attached to each sampling unit in the accuracy estimation formulas, if the inclusion probabilities are unknown, so are the estimation weights. This original work presents a novel (to the best of these authors' knowledge, the first) probability sampling protocol for quality assessment and comparison of thematic maps generated from spaceborne/airborne Very High Resolution (VHR) images, where: (I) an original Categorical Variable Pair Similarity Index (CVPSI, proposed in two different formulations) is estimated as a fuzzy degree of match between a reference and a test semantic vocabulary, which may not coincide, and (II) both symbolic pixel-based thematic quality indicators (TQIs) and sub-symbolic object-based spatial quality indicators (SQIs) are estimated with a degree of uncertainty in measurement in compliance with the well-known Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation (QA4EO) guidelines. Like a decision-tree, any protocol (guidelines for best practice) comprises a set of rules, equivalent to structural knowledge, and an order of presentation of the rule set, known as procedural knowledge. The combination of these two levels of knowledge makes an original protocol worth more than the sum of its parts. The several degrees of novelty of the proposed probability sampling protocol are highlighted in this paper, at the levels of understanding of both structural and procedural knowledge, in comparison with related multi-disciplinary works selected from the existing literature. In the experimental session the proposed protocol is tested for accuracy validation of preliminary classification maps automatically generated by the Satellite Image Automatic MapperT (SIAMT) software product from two WorldView-2 images and one QuickBird-2 image provided by DigitalGlobe for testing purposes. In these experiments, collected TQIs and SQIs are statistically valid, statistically significant, consistent across maps and in agreement with theoretical expectations, visual (qualitative) evidence and quantitative quality indexes of operativeness (OQIs) claimed for SIAMT by related papers. As a subsidiary conclusion, the statistically consistent and statistically significant accuracy validation of the SIAMT pre-classification maps proposed in this contribution, together with OQIs claimed for SIAMT by related works, make the operational (automatic, accurate, near real-time, robust, scalable) SIAMT software product eligible for opening up new inter-disciplinary research and market opportunities in accordance with the visionary goal of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) initiative and the QA4EO international guidelines.

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Understanding changes over time in the distribution of interacting native and invasive species that may be symptomatic of competitive exclusion is critical to identify the need for and effectiveness of management interventions. Occupancy models greatly increase the robustness of inference that can be made from presence/absence data when species are imperfectly detected, and recent novel developments allow for the quantification of the strength of interaction between pairs of species. We used a two-species multi-season occupancy model to quantify the impact of the invasive American mink on the native European mink in Spain through the analysis of their co-occurrence pattern over twelve years (2000 - 2011) in the entire Spanish range of European mink distribution, where both species were detected by live trapping but American mink were culled. We detected a negative temporal trend in the rate of occupancy of European mink and a simultaneous positive trend in the occupancy of American mink. The species co-occurred less often than expected and the native mink was more likely to become extinct from sites occupied by the invasive species. Removal of American mink resulted in a high probability of local extinction where it co-occurred with the endemic mink, but the overall increase in the probability of occupancy over the last decade indicates that the ongoing management is failing to halt its spread. More intensive culling effort where both species co-exist as well as in adjacent areas where the invasive American mink is found at high densities is required in order to stop thedecline of European mink.