Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Kysynnän ennustaminen leipomotuotteille ja ennusteen tarkkuuden arviointi

Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin kysynnän ennustamista Vaasan & Vaasan Oy:n tuotteille. Ensin työssä perehdyttiin ennustamiseen ja sen tarjoamiin mahdollisuuksiin yrityksessä. Erityisesti kysynnän ennustamisesta saatavat hyödyt käytiin läpi. Kysynnän ennustamisesta haettiin ratkaisua erityisesti ongelmiin työvuorosuunnittelussa.Työssä perehdyttiin ennustemenetelmiin liittyvään kirjallisuuteen, jonka oppien perusteella tehtiin koe-ennustuksia yrityksen kysynnän historiadatan avulla. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin kuudelle eri Turun leipomon koe-tuotteelle. Ennustettavana aikavälinä oli kahden viikon päiväkohtainen kysyntä. Tämän aikavälin erityisesti peruskysynnälle etsittiin ennustetarkkuudeltaan parasta kvantitatiivista ennustemenetelmää. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin liukuvilla keskiarvoilla, klassisella aikasarja-analyysillä, eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä, Holtin lineaarisella eksponenttitasoituksen menetelmällä, Wintersin kausittaisella eksponentiaalisella tasoituksella, autoregressiivisillä malleilla, Box-Jenkinsin menetelmällä ja regressioanalyysillä. Myös neuroverkon opettamista historiadatalla ja käyttämistä ongelman ratkaisun apuna kokeiltiin.Koe-ennustuksien tulosten perusteella ennustemenetelmien toimintaa analysoitiin jatkokehitystä varten. Ennustetarkkuuden lisäksi arvioitiin mallin yksinkertaisuutta, helppokäyttöisyyttä ja sopivuutta yrityksen monien tuotteiden ennustamiseen. Myös kausivaihteluihin, trendeihin ja erikoispäiviin kiinnitettiin huomiota. Ennustetarkkuuden huomattiin parantuvan selvästi peruskysyntää ennustettaessa, jos ensin historiadata esikäsittelemällä puhdistettiin erikoispäivistä ja –viikoista.

Klammt's elastic open activator: Ricketts' cephalometrics results

The purpose of this study is to investigate the orthodontic and orthopaedic real effects of the Klammt's Elastic Open Activator (EOA) in 25 Class II Division 1 patients in growing period. We wanted to determine statistically the cephalometrics changes produced in the patients, comparing the lateral cranium teleradiographies we took for the diagnosis with the ones we took at the end of treatment. At the end of this study we confirm that by using the EOA we obtained the desired effects, especially reducing the molar relation 2.53 mm and the overjet 2.56 mm. The EOA corrected the inclination and protrusion of incisors, although we cannot avoid the use of fixed appliances to round off. The reduction of 2.48 mm of facial convexity stands out as the most important skeletal effect; the facial depth angle increases 0.8 degree, and the maxillary depth decreases 1.16 degrees. The length of the mandibular corpus also increases 6.7 mm, although this change is mainly due to the growth of the patient. The changes in the aesthetic profile do not stand out

Development of novel immunotherapies against bladder cancer

Le cancer de la vessie est le deuxième cancer urologique le plus fréquent dans le monde. La plupart des patients (75%) sont initialement diagnostiqués avec un cancer non musculo- invasif. Après résection trans-urétrale, ie traitement standard pour ce type de lésion chez les patients présentant un risque important de récidive/progression consiste en une série d'instillations intravésicales du Bacille de Calmette-Guerin (i.e. le vaccin BCG). Cependant cette "BCG thérapie" est associée à des effets secondaires non négligeables et s'avère inefficace dans 30% des cas, des limitations donc importantes qui soulignent la nécessité de développer des stratégies thérapeutiques alternatives. L'utilisation d'antigènes associés aux tumeurs (TAA) comme vaccin, combinée à une application locale d'immunostimulants sur le site tumoral, est une approche prometteuse en vue de maximiser les réponses immunitaires anti-tumorales localement. Nous montrons que la bactérie vivante atténuée Ty21a, issue du vaccin Vivotif® contre la fièvre typhoïde, peut être utilisée comme immunostimulant intravésical (IVES), mais ce uniquement dans le cas où la bactérie est en phase exponentielle de croissance (Vivotif exp). En effet, l'instillation IVES de Vivotif exp à la suite d'une vaccination par un TAA, un antigène mineur d'histocompatibilité mâle H-Y (Uty), permet d'augmenter de 15 fois le nombre de cellules T CD8 totales et spécifiques de l'antigène dans la vessie. Le recrutement des cellules T est TLR4-dépendent, ce qui suggère un rôle des lipopolysaccharides du Vivotif exp. Par ailleurs, en comparaison avec le contenu bactérien de la capsule de Vivotif, les bactéries en phase exponentielle de croissance permettent également une augmentation préférentielle des chemokines C5/C5a, CXCL1, CXCL2 et CXCL5 dans la vessie, mais pas du nombre de cellules T exprimant les récepteurs apparentés (C5aR et CXCR2). De plus, combiner la vaccination Uty avec le Vivotif exp en IVES permet d'améliorer la survie des souris présentant une tumeur orthotopique de la vessie exprimant l'antigène Uty (lignée tumorale murine MB49). Puisque pour certains cancers, aucun TAA - du moins exprimé à tous les stades tumoraux - n'est identifié, il est nécessaire de développer d'autres approches non vaccinales. Dans une deuxième partie de ce travail de thèse, nous avons donc investigué deux stratégies permettant d'induire une destruction des cellules tumorales, la thérapie génique par gène de suicide, d'une part, et la thérapie photodynamique dans le proche infrarouge (NIR-PDT), d'autre part. Pour appliquer ces thérapies, nous avons utilisé comme vecteur sûr et non toxique une forme non réplicative du virus du « Human Papillomavirus » (HPV) capable de "pseudo-infecter" préférentiellement les souris présentant des tumeurs vésicales (MB49). L'utilisation de pseudovirions (PsV) HPV portant comme gène suicide la thymidine kinase, une enzyme du virus de l'herpès simplex, suivi d'un traitement par la prodrogue Ganciclovir, permet de tuer 90% des cellules MB49 in-vitro ainsi que de ralentir significativement le développement des tumeurs vésicales in-vivo. Par ailleurs, l'emploi de particules pseudo- virales HPV couplées à la phtalocyanine IR700, un pigment photosensible présentant un pouvoir cytotoxique une fois activé, permet de tuer, après application d'une lumière dans le proche infrarouge, quasi 100% des cellules MB49 in-vitro et, plus important, de régresser des tumeurs in-vivo. De façon générale, ce travail de thèse présente des approches thérapeutiques innovantes et prometteuses pour le traitement des patients avec un cancer non musculo-invasif de la vessie. -- Bladder cancer is the second most common urological malignancy in the world. At initial diagnosis, non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) accounts for 75% of bladder cancer. The standard of care of NMIBC consists of intravesical (IVES) treatments with Bacillus- Calmette-Guerin (BCG) following transurethral resections of the lesions. However, repeated BCG treatments are associated with significant side effects and treatment failure may occur in 30% of the cases, underlying the necessity of alternative therapeutic strategies. The use of tumor-associated antigens (TAA) as vaccines followed by the local application of immunostimulants where the tumor resides is a promising approach to increase anti-tumor immune responses locally. We show that live attenuated Ty21a bacteria used from the vivotif® vaccine against typhoid fever can efficiently be used as IVES immunostimulant, only if bacteria are grown to exponential phase (Vivotif exp). In this condition, IVES immunostimulation after TAA vaccination with a minor histocompatibility male antigen HY (Uty) resulted in more than 15-fold increase of both vaccine-specific and total CD8-T cells in the bladder. T cell recruitment was mediated by TLR-4 suggesting that it was mainly mediated by lipopolysaccharides of Vivotif exp. In addition, these bacteria, as compared to the bacterial content of the vivotif capsule preferentially increased C5/C5a, CXCL1, CXCL2 and CXCL5 chemokines, but not the numbers of T cells expressing the cognate receptors (C5aR and CXCR2). Combination of IVES Vivotif exp with Uty vaccination improved survival of mice with pre-established orthotopic Uty-expressing MB49 murine bladder tumors, as compared to vaccination alone. As known TAA are not identified in all cancers, or not expressed in all stages of the tumor, we further investigated two potent approaches able of initiating tumor-cell destruction, suicide-gene therapy and near-infrared (NIR) photodynamic therapy (PDT). Towards a safe and non-toxic application of these therapies, we used Human Papillomavirus (HPV) replication-defective vectors that were able to preferentially pseudo-infect MB49-tumor bearing mice. HPV pseudovirions (PsV) carrying the Herpex-Simplex virus thymidine kinase suicide-gene followed by treatment with the prodrug Ganciclovir resulted in 90% of MB49 cell-death in-vitro and was able to significantly reduce bladder tumor growth in-vivo. Furthermore, HPV virus-like particles coupled to a NIR phtalocyanine dye, IR700 in combination with specific NIR light led to almost 100% of MB49 cell-death in-vitro and more interestingly, to bladder tumors shrinkage in-vivo. Overall, in this thesis, we offer promising therapeutic approaches for application in NMIBC patients.

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

From bird to sparrow: Learning-induced modulations in fine-grained semantic discrimination.

Recognition of environmental sounds is believed to proceed through discrimination steps from broad to more narrow categories. Very little is known about the neural processes that underlie fine-grained discrimination within narrow categories or about their plasticity in relation to newly acquired expertise. We investigated how the cortical representation of birdsongs is modulated by brief training to recognize individual species. During a 60-minute session, participants learned to recognize a set of birdsongs; they improved significantly their performance for trained (T) but not control species (C), which were counterbalanced across participants. Auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) were recorded during pre- and post-training sessions. Pre vs. post changes in AEPs were significantly different between T and C i) at 206-232ms post stimulus onset within a cluster on the anterior part of the left superior temporal gyrus; ii) at 246-291ms in the left middle frontal gyrus; and iii) 512-545ms in the left middle temporal gyrus as well as bilaterally in the cingulate cortex. All effects were driven by weaker activity for T than C species. Thus, expertise in discriminating T species modulated early stages of semantic processing, during and immediately after the time window that sustains the discrimination between human vs. animal vocalizations. Moreover, the training-induced plasticity is reflected by the sharpening of a left lateralized semantic network, including the anterior part of the temporal convexity and the frontal cortex. Training to identify birdsongs influenced, however, also the processing of C species, but at a much later stage. Correct discrimination of untrained sounds seems to require an additional step which results from lower-level features analysis such as apperception. We therefore suggest that the access to objects within an auditory semantic category is different and depends on subject's level of expertise. More specifically, correct intra-categorical auditory discrimination for untrained items follows the temporal hierarchy and transpires in a late stage of semantic processing. On the other hand, correct categorization of individually trained stimuli occurs earlier, during a period contemporaneous with human vs. animal vocalization discrimination, and involves a parallel semantic pathway requiring expertise.

Trust region versus line search for computing the optical flow

We consider the numerical treatment of the optical flow problem by evaluating the performance of the trust region method versus the line search method. To the best of our knowledge, the trust region method is studied here for the first time for variational optical flow computation. Four different optical flow models are used to test the performance of the proposed algorithm combining linear and nonlinear data terms with quadratic and TV regularization. We show that trust region often performs better than line search; especially in the presence of non-linearity and non-convexity in the model.

Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.

Classical line shapes based on analytical solutions of bimolecular trajectories in collision induced emission. II. Reactive collisions

The classical theory of collision induced emission (CIE) from pairs of dissimilar rare gas atoms was developed in Paper I [D. Reguera and G. Birnbaum, J. Chem. Phys. 125, 184304 (2006)] from a knowledge of the straight line collision trajectory and the assumption that the magnitude of the dipole could be represented by an exponential function of the inter-nuclear distance. This theory is extended here to deal with other functional forms of the induced dipole as revealed by ab initio calculations. Accurate analytical expression for the CIE can be obtained by least square fitting of the ab initio values of the dipole as a function of inter-atomic separation using a sum of exponentials and then proceeding as in Paper I. However, we also show how the multi-exponential fit can be replaced by a simpler fit using only two analytic functions. Our analysis is applied to the polar molecules HF and HBr. Unlike the rare gas atoms considered previously, these atomic pairs form stable bound diatomic molecules. We show that, interestingly, the spectra of these reactive molecules are characterized by the presence of multiple peaks. We also discuss the CIE arising from half collisions in excited electronic states, which in principle could be probed in photo-dissociation experiments.

Implications of burial alterations on luminescence dating of archaeological ceramics

Recent mineralogical studies on archaeological pottery samples report significant variations in alkali metal concentrations due to environmental alterations during burial. Here we examine the effects of potassium (K) leaching on luminescence dating. The effect on the estimation of the dose rate is studied by considering four models of leaching (exponential, linear, early and late) and their impact on fine- and coarse-grain dating are calculated. The modeling approaches are applied to two cases of pottery in which evidence for alteration was found. Additionally, TL dating performed on pottery of one of the studied cases, indicates the importance of leaching effects on absolute dating measurements.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Co-opetition: Coexistence of cooperation and competition in public sector – A case study in one city’s public companies

Business actions do not take place in isolation. Complementary competencies and capabilities are the most important resources in the exponential knowledge growth. These resources are partially accessed via business partners. A company needs partners and the capability to cooperate, but also the awareness of the competitive tension, when operating in the market with multiple actors. The co-opetition research studies the occurrence and the forms of simultaneous cooperation and competition between companies or their units. Public sector’s governmental and municipal organs have been transformed into companies over the past years. Despite of their non-profit nature, public sector and public companies are adopting business doctrines from private sector towards efficient business operations. This case study aims to show, how co-opetition concept can be observed within public sector companies and in their operations with others, how public companies cooperate but also compete with others and why this happens. This thesis also explicates advantages and disadvantages of the co-opetition phenomenon.

A nonparametric method for the measurement of size diversity with emphasis on data standardization

The most suitable method for estimation of size diversity is investigated. Size diversity is computed on the basis of the Shannon diversity expression adapted for continuous variables, such as size. It takes the form of an integral involving the probability density function (pdf) of the size of the individuals. Different approaches for the estimation of pdf are compared: parametric methods, assuming that data come from a determinate family of pdfs, and nonparametric methods, where pdf is estimated using some kind of local evaluation. Exponential, generalized Pareto, normal, and log-normal distributions have been used to generate simulated samples using estimated parameters from real samples. Nonparametric methods include discrete computation of data histograms based on size intervals and continuous kernel estimation of pdf. Kernel approach gives accurate estimation of size diversity, whilst parametric methods are only useful when the reference distribution have similar shape to the real one. Special attention is given for data standardization. The division of data by the sample geometric mean is proposedas the most suitable standardization method, which shows additional advantages: the same size diversity value is obtained when using original size or log-transformed data, and size measurements with different dimensionality (longitudes, areas, volumes or biomasses) may be immediately compared with the simple addition of ln k where kis the dimensionality (1, 2, or 3, respectively). Thus, the kernel estimation, after data standardization by division of sample geometric mean, arises as the most reliable and generalizable method of size diversity evaluation

Microscopy of Fission Yeast Sexual Lifecycle.

The fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe has been an invaluable model system in studying the regulation of the mitotic cell cycle progression, the mechanics of cell division and cell polarity. Furthermore, classical experiments on its sexual reproduction have yielded results pivotal to current understanding of DNA recombination and meiosis. More recent analysis of fission yeast mating has raised interesting questions on extrinsic stimuli response mechanisms, polarized cell growth and cell-cell fusion. To study these topics in detail we have developed a simple protocol for microscopy of the entire sexual lifecycle. The method described here is easily adjusted to study specific mating stages. Briefly, after being grown to exponential phase in a nitrogen-rich medium, cell cultures are shifted to a nitrogen-deprived medium for periods of time suited to the stage of the sexual lifecycle that will be explored. Cells are then mounted on custom, easily built agarose pad chambers for imaging. This approach allows cells to be monitored from the onset of mating to the final formation of spores.

Offdesign operation of kraft recovery boiler

A model to solve heat and mass balances during the offdesign load calculations was created. These equations are complex and nonlinear. The main new ideas used in the created offdesign model of a kraft recovery boiler are the use of heat flows as torn iteration variables instead of the current practice of using the mass flows, vectorizing equation solving, thus speeding up the process, using non dimensional variables for solving the multiple heat transfer surface problem and using a new procedure for calculating pressure losses. Recovery boiler heat and mass balances are reduced to vector form. It is shown that these vectorized equations can be solved virtually without iteration. The iteration speed is enhanced by the use of the derived method of calculating multiple heat transfer surfaces simultaneously. To achieve this quick convergence the heat flows were used as the torn iteration parameters. A new method to handle pressure loss calculations with linearization was presented. This method enabled less time to be spent calculating pressure losses. The derived vector representation of the steam generator was used to calculate offdesign operation parameters for a 3000 tds/d example recovery boiler. The model was used to study recovery boiler part load operation and the effect of the black liquor dry solids increase on recovery boiler dimensioning. Heat flows to surface elements for part load calculations can be closely approximated with a previously defined exponent function. The exponential method can be used for the prediction of fouling in kraft recovery boilers. For similar furnaces the firing of 80 % dry solids liquor produces lower hearth heat release rate than the 65 % dry solids liquor if we fire at constant steam flow. The furnace outlet temperatures show that capacity increase with firing rate increase produces higher loadings than capacity increase with dry solids increase. The economizers, boiler banks and furnaces can be dimensioned smaller if we increase the black liquor dry solids content. The main problem with increased black liquor dry solids content is the decrease in the heat available to superheat. Whenever possible the furnace exit temperature should be increased by decreasing the furnace height. The increase in the furnace exit temperature is usually opposed because of fear of increased corrosion.