Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Modelling variation of needle density of Scots pine at high latitudes

[Abstract]

Arthro-IRM directe en traction axiale: technique et intérêt [Technique and value of direct MR arthrography applying articular distraction]

Direct MR arthrography has a better diagnostic accuracy than MR imaging alone. However, contrast material is not always homogeneously distributed in the articular space. Lesions of cartilage surfaces or intra-articular soft tissues can thus be misdiagnosed. Concomitant application of axial traction during MR arthrography leads to articular distraction. This enables better distribution of contrast material in the joint and better delineation of intra-articular structures. Therefore, this technique improves detection of cartilage lesions. Moreover, the axial stress applied on articular structures may reveal lesions invisible on MR images without traction. Based on our clinical experience, we believe that this relatively unknown technique is promising and should be further developed.

Prognostic value of cortically induced motor evoked activity by TMS in chronic stroke: caveats from a very revealing single clinical case

Background: We report the case of a chronic stroke patient (62 months after injury) showing total absence of motor activity evoked by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) of spared regions of the left motor cortex, but near-to-complete recovery of motor abilities in the affected hand. Case presentation: Multimodal investigations included detailed TMS based motor mapping, motor evoked potentials (MEP), and Cortical Silent period (CSP) as well as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) of motor activity, MRI based lesion analysis and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) Tractography of corticospinal tract (CST). Anatomical analysis revealed a left hemisphere subinsular lesion interrupting the descending left CST at the level of the internal capsule. The absence of MEPs after intense TMS pulses to the ipsilesional M1, and the reversible suppression of ongoing electromyographic (EMG) activity (indexed by CSP) demonstrate a weak modulation of subcortical systems by the ipsilesional left frontal cortex, but an inability to induce efficient descending volleys from those cortical locations to right hand and forearm muscles. Functional MRI recordings under grasping and finger tapping patterns involving the affected hand showed slight signs of subcortical recruitment, as compared to the unaffected hand and hemisphere, as well as the expected cortical activations. Conclusions: The potential sources of motor voluntary activity for the affected hand in absence of MEPs are discussed. We conclude that multimodal analysis may contribute to a more accurate prognosis of stroke patients.

The impact of information on patient preferences in different delivery patterns: a contingent valuation study of prescription versus OTC drugs.

OBJECTIVES: Our analysis assessed the impact of information on patients' preferences in prescription versus over-the-counter (OTC) delivery systems. METHODS: A contingent valuation (CV) study was implemented, randomly assigning 534 lay people into the receipt of limited or extended information concerning new influenza drugs. In each information arm, people answered two questions: the first asked about willingness to pay (WTP) for the new prescription drug; the second asked about WTP for the same drug sold OTC. RESULTS: We show that WTP is higher for the OTC scenario and that the level of information plays a significant role in the evaluation of the OTC scenario, with more information being associated with an increase in the WTP. In contrast, the level of information provided has no impact on WTP for prescription medicine. Thus, for the kind of drug considered here (i.e. safe, not requiring medical supervision), a switch to OTC status can be expected to be all the more beneficial, as the patient is provided with more information concerning the capability of the drug. CONCLUSIONS: Our results shed light on one of the most challenging issues that health policy makers are currently faced with, namely the threat of a bird flu pandemic. Drug delivery is a critical component of pandemic influenza preparedness. Furthermore, the congruence of our results with the agency and demand theories provides an important test of the validity of using WTP based on CV methods.

Prognostic value of sentinel node biopsy in 327 prospective melanoma patients from a single institution

Résumé Etude de la valeur pronostique de la biopsie du ganglion sentinelle dans une étude prospective monocentrique de 327 patients atteints de mélanome malin But II s'agit de confirmer la validité de la biopsie du ganglion sentinelle, d'en définir la morbidité, d'investiguer les facteurs prédictifs pour le statut du ganglion sentinelle ainsi que de déterminer les facteurs pronostiques pour la survie sans récidive et la survie spécifique liée à la maladie. Matériel et méthode D'octobre 1997 à décembre 2004, 327 patients consécutifs présentant un mélanome cutané primaire des membres, du tronc et de la tête, sans adénopathie clinique ni métastase à distance ont été inclus. La biopsie du ganglion sentinelle a été réalisée selon la triple technique (lymphoscintigraphie, colorant bleu vital et sonde de détection gamma). Les paramètres et la survie ont été évalués par différentes analyses de régression logistique multiple selon Cox et la survie évaluée selon Kaplan Meier. Résultats Vingt-trois pour cent des patients présentaient au moins un ganglion sentinelle métastatique, ce qui était associé de façon significative à l'épaisseur selon Breslow (p<0.001). Le taux de succès de la biopsie du ganglion sentinelle était de 99.1% et sa morbidité de 7.6%. Avec une durée médiane de suivi de 33 mois, la survie sans récidive à 5 ans était de 43% pour les patients avec un ganglion sentinelle positif et de 83.5% pour ceux avec un ganglion sentinelle négatif. La survie spécifique liée à la maladie à 5 ans était de 49% pour les patients avec un ganglion sentinelle positif et de 87.4% pour ceux avec un ganglion sentinelle négatif. Le taux de faux négatif de la biopsie du ganglion sentinelle était de 8.6%. L'analyse multivariée a démontré que la survie sans récidive était significativement péjorée par :l'épaisseur selon Breslow (RR=5.6, p<0.001), un ganglion sentinelle positif (RR=5.0, p<0.001), et le sexe masculin (RR=2.9, p=0.001). La survie spécifique liée à la maladie était significativement diminuée par : un ganglion sentinelle métastatique (RR=8.4, p<O.OOI), le sexe masculin (RR=6.1, p<0.001), l'épaisseur selon Breslow (RR=3.2, p=0.013), et la présence d'une ulcération (RR=2.6, p=0.015). Conclusion La biopsie du ganglion sentinelle est une procédure fiable avec une haute sensibilité (91.4%) et une faible morbidité (7.6%). L'épaisseur selon Breslow était le seul facteur prédictif significatif pour le statut du ganglion sentinelle. La survie sans récidive était péjorée selon un ordre décroissant par :l'épaisseur selon Breslow, un ganglion sentinelle métastatique, et le sexe masculin. De façon similaire la survie spécifique liée à la maladie était péjorée par : un ganglion sentinelle métastatique, le sexe masculin, l'épaisseur selon Breslow, et une ulcération. Ces données renforcent le statut du ganglion sentinelle en tant que puissant moyen pour évaluer le stade tumoral ainsi que le pronostic.

Nitrogen replacement value of alfalfa to corn and wheat under irrigated Mediterranean conditions

In crop rotations that include alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), agronomic and environmental concerns mean that it is important to determine the N fertilizer contribution of this legume for subsequent crops in order to help to increase the sustainability of cropping systems. To determine the N fertilizer replacement value (FRV) of a 2-yr alfalfa crop on subsequent crops of corn (Zea mays L.) followed by wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under irrigated Mediterranean conditions, two 4-yr rotations (alfalfa-corn-wheat and corn-corn-corn-wheat) were conducted from 2001 to 2004 in a Typic Xerofluvent soil. Corn yields were compared after two years of alfalfa and a third year of corn under monoculture and wheat yields were also compared after both rotations. Corn production after alfalfa outyielded monoculture corn at all four rates of N fertilizer application analyzed (0, 100, 200 and 300 kg N/ha). The FRV of 2-yr alfalfa for corn was about 160 kg N/ha. Wheat grown after the alfalfa-corn rotation outyielded that grown after corn under monoculture at both the rates of N studied (0 and 100 kg N/ha). The FRV of alfalfa for wheat following alfalfa-corn was about 76 kg N/ha. Soil NO3 -N content after alfalfa was greater than with the corn monoculture at all rates of N fertilizer application and this higher value persisted during the second crop after alfalfa. This was probably one of the reasons for the better yields associated with the alfalfa rotation. These results make a valuable contribution to irrigated agriculture under mediterranean conditions, show reasons for interest in rotating alfalfa with corn, and explain how it is possible to make savings when applying N fertilizer.

The effect of information and communication technology on global paper consumption

The objective of this thesis is to find out how information and communication technology affects the global consumption of printing and writing papers. Another objective is to find out, whether there are differences between paper grades in these effects. The empirical analysis is conducted by linear regression analysis using three sets of country-level panel data from 1990-2006. Data set of newsprint contains 95 countries, data set of uncoated woodfree paper 61 countries and data set of coated mechanical paper 42 countries. The material is based on paper consumption data of RISI’s Industry Statistics Database and on the information and communication technology data of GMID-database. Results indicate that number of Internet users has statistically significant negative effect on the consumption of newsprint and on the consumption of coated mechanical paper and number of mobile telephone users has positive effect on the consumptions of these papers. Results also indicate that information and communication technologies have only small effect on consumption of uncoated woodfree paper or no significant effect at all, but these results are more uncertain to some extent.

Signalling value of maternal and paternal melanism in the barn owl : implication for the resolution of the lek paradox

Secondary sexual characters often signal qualities such as physiological processes associated with resistance to various sources of stress. When the expression of an ornament is not sex-limited, we can identify the costs and benefits of displaying a trait that is typical of its own sex or of the other sex. Indeed, the magnitude and sign of the covariation between physiology and the extent to which an ornament is expressed could differ between males and females if, for instance, the regulation of physiological processes is sensitive to sex hormones. Using data collected over 14 years in the nocturnal barn owl Tyto alba, we investigated how nestling body mass covaries with a heritable melanin-based sex-trait, females displaying on average larger black feather spots than males. Independently of nestling sex, year and time of the day large-spotted nestlings were heavier than small-spotted nestlings. In contrast, the magnitude and sign of the covariation between nestling body mass and the size of parental spots varied along the day in a way that depended on the year and parental gender. In poor years, offspring of smaller-spotted mothers were heavier throughout the resting period; in the morning, offspring sired by larger-spotted fathers were heavier than offspring of smaller-spotted fathers, while in the evening the opposite pattern was found. Thus, maternal and paternal coloration is differentially associated with behaviour or physiology, processes that are sensitive to time of the day and environmental factors. Interestingly, the covariation between offspring body mass and paternal coloration is more sensitive to these environmental factors than the covariation with maternal coloration. This indicates that the benefit of pairing with differently spotted males may depend on environmental conditions, which could help maintain genetic variation in the face of intense directional (sexual) selection.

Composition, digestibility and nutritive value of cereals for dogs

Selostus: Kypsennettyjen viljojen sulavuus ja ravitsemuksellinen arvo koirien ruokinnassa

Application of Information Statistical Theory to the Description of the Effect of Heat Conduction on the Chemical Reaction Rate in Gases

The effect of the heat flux on the rate of chemical reaction in dilute gases is shown to be important for reactions characterized by high activation energies and in the presence of very large temperature gradients. This effect, obtained from the second-order terms in the distribution function (similar to those obtained in the Burnett approximation to the solution of the Boltzmann equation), is derived on the basis of information theory. It is shown that the analytical results describing the effect are simpler if the kinetic definition for the nonequilibrium temperature is introduced than if the thermodynamic definition is introduced. The numerical results are nearly the same for both definitions