Scale dependence in earthquake phenomena and its relevance to earthquake prediction.

The recent discovery of a low-velocity, low-Q zone with a width of 50-200 m reaching to the top of the ductile part of the crust, by observations on seismic guided waves trapped in the fault zone of the Landers earthquake of 1992, and its identification with the shear zone inferred from the distribution of tension cracks observed on the surface support the existence of a characteristic scale length of the order of 100 m affecting various earthquake phenomena in southern California, as evidenced earlier by the kink in the magnitude-frequency relation at about M3, the constant corner frequency for earthquakes with M below about 3, and the sourcecontrolled fmax of 5-10 Hz for major earthquakes. The temporal correlation between coda Q-1 and the fractional rate of occurrence of earthquakes in the magnitude range 3-3.5, the geographical similarity of coda Q-1 and seismic velocity at a depth of 20 km, and the simultaneous change of coda Q-1 and conductivity at the lower crust support the hypotheses that coda Q-1 may represent the activity of creep fracture in the ductile part of the lithosphere occurring over cracks with a characteristic size of the order of 100 m. The existence of such a characteristic scale length cannot be consistent with the overall self-similarity of earthquakes unless we postulate a discrete hierarchy of such characteristic scale lengths. The discrete hierarchy of characteristic scale lengths is consistent with recently observed logarithmic periodicity in precursory seismicity.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.

Estudo em laboratório do desempenho de concreto asfáltico usinado a quente empregando ligante tipo asfalto-borracha

Pesquisas sobre aplicação de borracha de pneus descartados em pavimentação asfáltica vêm sendo desenvolvidas desde a década de 1960, especialmente nos Estados Unidos e, desde o início da década de 1990, no Brasil, como alternativa para diminuição dos problemas ambientais gerados por estes resíduos sólidos. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo avaliar o desempenho de três misturas asfálticas do tipo concreto asfáltico usinado à quente: duas empregando teores diferentes de borracha moída e óleo de xisto (CAP 40 + 12% de borracha + 10% de óleo de xisto e CAP 40 + 20% de borracha + 15% de óleo de xisto) e uma convencional. Este estudo faz parte de um programa de pesquisa coordenado pela Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos da Universidade de São Paulo (EESC-USP), Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM) e Petrobrás, envolvendo a execução de misturas com borracha e óleo de xisto em trechos experimentais. Foram realizadas dosagens Marshall e ensaios de resistência à tração, módulo de resiliência e fluência por compressão uniaxial estática. Os corpos-de-prova empregados nos ensaios foram moldados no teor ótimo de cimento asfáltico referente a cada uma das misturas. Constatou-se a viabilidade técnica da adição de óleo extensor para a incorporação de borracha de pneus descartados em concreto asfáltico, permitindo a obtenção de resultados satisfatórios quanto aos projetos de dosagem das misturas pelo método Marshall. Com base nos resultados dos ensaios realizados, acredita-se ser viável a execução de trechos experimentais empregando as duas misturas modificadas.

Subsidencia del terreno

La subsidencia del terreno es un riesgo natural que afecta a amplias zonas del territorio causando importantes daños económicos y una gran alarma social. La subsidencia del terreno puede deberse a numerosas causas como la disolución de materiales profundos, la construcción de obras subterráneas o de galerías mineras, la erosión del terreno en profundidad, el flujo lateral del suelo, la compactación de los materiales que constituyen el terreno o la actividad tectónica. Todas estas causas se manifiestan en la superficie del terreno mediante deformaciones verticales que pueden variar desde pocos milímetros hasta varios metros durante periodos que varían desde minutos hasta años.

Estudio de la fluencia de una calcarenita: la Piedra de San Julián (Alicante)

La fluencia de las rocas tiene gran importancia en la evaluación del comportamiento a largo plazo de elementos construidos con estos materiales. En este trabajo, se ha caracterizado física y mecánicamente una calcarenita porosa bien conocida localmente como Piedra de San Julián. Se han realizado ensayos de compresión uniaxial de 96 h. a carga constante. Se ha utilizado un modelo de fluencia bien conocido, el Código-modelo CEB-FIP 2010, usado para modelizar otro material pétreo (hormigón). Además, se ha propuesto un modelo reológico. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es investigar la posibilidad de aprovechar la gran experiencia acumulada en el estudio del hormigón, con el fin de obtener un enfoque para el comportamiento de la roca, para tiempos de prueba muy largos difíciles de implementar en laboratorio. Se propone una función de fluencia adaptada a la roca estudiada dependiente sólo de sus características elásticas y mecánicas.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the Huangtupo landslide in the Three Gorges region (China) constrained by radar interferometry

The Huangtupo landslide is one of the largest in the Three Gorges region, China. The county-seat town of Badong, located on the south shore between the Xiling and Wu gorges of the Yangtze River, was moved to this unstable slope prior to the construction of the Three Gorges Project, since the new Three Gorges reservoir completely submerged the location of the old city. The instability of the slope is affecting the new town by causing residential safety problems. The Huangtupo landslide provides scientists an opportunity to understand landslide response to fluctuating river water level and heavy rainfall episodes, which is essential to decide upon appropriate remediation measures. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques provide a very useful tool for the study of superficial and spatially variable displacement phenomena. In this paper, three sets of radar data have been processed to investigate the Huangtupo landslide. Results show that maximum displacements are affecting the northwest zone of the slope corresponding to Riverside slumping mass I#. The other main landslide bodies (i.e. Riverside slumping mass II#, Substation landslide and Garden Spot landslide) exhibit a stable behaviour in agreement with in situ data, although some active areas have been recognized in the foot of the Substation landslide and Garden Spot landslide. InSAR has allowed us to study the kinematic behaviour of the landslide and to identify its active boundaries. Furthermore, the analysis of the InSAR displacement time-series has helped recognize the different displacement patterns on the slope and their relationships with various triggering factors. For those persistent scatterers, which exhibit long-term displacements, they can be decomposed into a creep model (controlled by geological conditions) and a superimposed recoverable term (dependent on external factors), which appears closely correlated with reservoir water level changes close to the river's edge. These results, combined with in situ data, provide a comprehensive analysis of the Huangtupo landslide, which is essential for its management.

Seismic behavior of a masonry chimney with severe cracking condition: preliminary study

This paper presents a structural analysis of a masonry chimney built in the 1940s, which is currently being cataloged as local interest heritage. This structure has not served any industrial purpose for the last thirty years. The chimney is located in the town of Agost (Alicante - Spain) and directly exposed to the prevailing winds from the sea, as it is approximately 12 km away from the waterfront and there are not any significant barriers, which could protect the structure against the wind. There are longitudinal cracks and fissures all along the shaft because of the chimney’s geometrical characteristics, the effect of the masonry creep and especially the lack of maintenance. Moreover, there is also a permanent bending deformation in the upper 1/3 of the height due to the wind pressure. A numerical analysis for the static behavior against gravity and wind loads was performed using the structure’s current conditions after a detailed report of its geometry, its construction system and the cracking pattern. Afterwards, the dynamic behavior was studied, i.e. a seismic analysis using both response spectra and accelerograms in order to examine the structural stability. This work shows the pre-monitoring analysis before any experimental testing. Using the current results the future test conditions will be determined (e.g. number of sensors and monitoring point location, excitation systems, etc) prior to a possible structural reinforcement by applying composite material (fiber reinforced polymers).

Effects of Fe addition on the mechanical and thermo-mechanical properties of SiC/FeSi2/Si composites produced via reactive infiltration

Remaining silicon in SiC-based materials produced via reactive infiltration limits their use in high-temperature applications due to the poor mechanical properties of silicon: low fracture toughness, extreme fragility and creep phenomena above 1000 °C. In this paper SiC–FeSi2 composites are fabricated by reactive infiltration of Si–Fe alloys into porous Cf/C preforms. The resulting materials are SiC/FeSi2 composites, in which remaining silicon is reduced by formation of FeSi2. For the richest Fe alloys (35 wt% Fe) a nominal residual silicon content below 1% has been observed. However this, the relatively poor mechanical properties (bending strength) measured for those resulting materials can be explained by the thermal mismatch of FeSi2 and SiC, which weakens the interface and does even generate new porosity, associated with a debonding phenomenon between the two phases.

The Dano case – Or time for the UK to digest realities about the balance of competences between the EU and national levels. CEPS Commentary, 14 November 2014

The European Court of Justice's new judgment on the Dano case should be reverberating around the UK. In Michael Emerson's view, it shows how national competences can be deftly used to control for 'benefit tourism' without challenging EU law, and that the Court is not acting as the agent of 'EU competence creep', as alleged in the Eurosceptic's stereotype.

On the initiation of boudinage and folding instabilities in layered elasto-visco-plastic solids - Insights from natural microstructures and numerical simulations

The present understanding of the initiation of boudinage and folding structures is based on viscosity contrasts and stress exponents, considering an intrinsically unstable state of the layer. The criterion of localization is believed to be prescribed by geometry-material interactions, which are often encountered in natural structures. An alternative localization phenomenon has been established for ductile materials, in which instability emerges for critical material parameters and loading rates from homogeneous conditions. In this thesis, conditions are sought under which this type of instability prevails and whether localization in geological materials necessarily requires a trigger by geometric imperfections. The relevance of critical deformation conditions, material parameters and the spatial configuration of instabilities are discussed in a geological context. In order to analyze boudinage geometries, a numerical eigenmode analysis is introduced. This method allows determining natural frequencies and wavelengths of a structure and inducing perturbations on these frequencies. In the subsequent coupled thermo-mechanical simulations, using a grain size evolution and end-member flow laws, localization emerges when material softening through grain size sensitive viscous creep sets in. Pinch-and-swell structures evolve along slip lines through a positive feedback between the matrix response and material bifurcations inside the layer, independent from the mesh-discretization length scale. Since boudinage and folding are considered to express the same general instability, both structures should arise independently of the sign of the loading conditions and for identical material parameters. To this end, the link between material to energy instabilities is approached by means of bifurcation analyses of the field equations and finite element simulations of the coupled system of equations. Boudinage and folding structures develop at the same critical energy threshold, where dissipative work by temperature-sensitive creep overcomes the diffusive capacity of the layer. This finding provides basis for a unified theory for strain localization in layered ductile materials. The numerical simulations are compared to natural pinch-and-swell microstructures, tracing the adaption of grain sizes, textures and creep mechanisms in calcite veins. The switch from dislocation to diffusion creep relates to strain-rate weakening, which is induced by dissipated heat from grain size reduction, and marks the onset of continuous necking. The time-dependent sequence uncovers multiple steady states at different time intervals. Microstructurally and mechanically stable conditions are finally expressed in the pinch-and-swell end members. The major outcome of this study is that boudinage and folding can be described as the same coupled energy-mechanical bifurcation, or as one critical energy attractor. This finding allows the derivation of critical deformation conditions and fundamental material parameters directly from localized structures in the field.

(Table 1) Soil density and concentration of 10Beryllium and 26Aluminium in samples from two ash deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica (MDV) are among the oldest landscapes on Earth, and some landforms there present an intriguing apparent contradiction such that millions of years old surface deposits maintain their meter-scale morphology despite the fact that measured erosion rates are 0.1-4 m/Ma. We analyzed the concentration of cosmic ray-produced 10Be and 26Al in quartz sands from regolith directly above and below two well-documented ash deposits in the MDV, the Arena Valley ash (40Ar/39Ar age of 4.33 Ma) and the Hart ash (K-Ar age of 3.9 Ma). Measured concentrations of 10Be and 26Al are significantly less than expected given the age of the in situ air fall ashes and are best interpreted as reflecting the degradation rate of the overlying sediments. The erosion rate of the material above the Arena Valley ash that best explains the observed isotope profiles is 3.5 ± 0.41 x 10**-5 g/cm**2/yr (~0.19 m/Ma) for the past ~4 Ma. For the Hart ash, the erosion rate is 4.8 ± 0.21 x 10**-4 g/cm**2/yr (~2.6 m/Ma) for the past ~1 Ma. The concentration profiles do not show signs of mixing, creep, or deflation caused by sublimation of ground ice. These results indicate that the slow, steady lowering of the surface without vertical mixing may allow landforms to maintain their meter-scale morphology even though they are actively eroding.

Particel size distribution and microstructures of sediments from ODP Leg 205 sites (Table 1)

Ocean Drilling Program Legs 170 and 205 offshore Costa Rica provide structural observations which support a new model for the geometry and deformation response to the seismic cycle of the frontal sedimentary prism and decollement. The model is based on drillcore, thin section, and electron microscope observations. The decollement damage zone is a few tens of meters in width, it develops mainly within the frontal prism. A clear cm-thick fault core is observed 1.6 km from the trench. The lower boundary of the fault core is coincident with the lithological boundary between the frontal prism and the hemipelagic and pelagic sediment of the Cocos plate. Breccia clast distributions in the upper portion of the decollement damage zone were studied through fractal analysis. This analysis shows that the fractal dimension changes with brecciated fragment size, implying that deformation was not accommodated by self-similar fracturing. A higher fractal dimensionality correlates with smaller particle size, which indicates that different or additional grain-size reduction processes operated during shearing. The co-existence of two distinct fracturing processes is also confirmed by microscopic analysis in which extension fracturing in the upper part of the damage zone farthest from the fault core is frequent, while both extension and shear fracturing occur approaching the fault core. The coexistence of extensional and shear fracturing seems to be best explained by fluid pressure variations in response to variations of the compressional regime during the seismic cycle. During the co-seismic event, sub-horizontal compression and fluid pressure increase, triggering shear fracturing and fluid expulsion. Fractures migrate upward with fluids, contributing to the asymmetric shape of the decollement, while slip propagates. In the inter-seismic interval the frontal prismrelaxes and fluid pressure drops. The frontal prismgoes into diffuse extension during the intervalwhen plate convergence is accommodated by creep along the ductile fault core. The fault core is typically a barrier to deformation, which is explained by its weak, but impermeable, nature. The localized development of a damage zone beneath the fault core is characterized by shear fracturing that appears as the result of local strengthening of the detachment.

Self-diffusion of metals and associated phenomena :

"Contract AT-30-1-GEN-367."

Iwo Jima Photo Album, Image 24

Marines scaling a hill. Caption; "Inch by inch they creep up and over…"