Ri-costruire per ri-generare. Un modello per le periferie urbane

In Italia, quasi il 90% delle abitazioni esistenti sono state edificate prima degli anni Settanta del Novecento, se consideriamo la tipologia costruttiva, le normative per la sicurezza strutturale in ambito sismico e il comportamento energetico, ne deriva che la maggior parte non risponde agli standard vigenti. A questo si aggiunge la consapevolezza che il patrimonio residenziale costruito in quel periodo, e che occupa le prime periferie delle città, non si presta per sua natura costitutiva ad essere oggetto di interventi di riqualificazione che siano giustificabili in termini di costi-benefici dal punto di vista economico e per ottimizzazione ingegneristica. È opportuno ripensare piani e programmi di rinnovamento non circoscritti alle categorie di risanamento, efficientamento, manutenzione, adeguamento, ma che siano in grado di assumere in positivo il tema della sostituzione secondo il paradigma del ri-costruire per ri-generare per sviluppare strategie a medio-lungo termine per soddisfare un quadro esigenziale-prestazionale coerente con la legislazione europea, in termini di sicurezza, efficienza e impatto ambientale, e promuovere la pianificazione e lo sviluppo sostenibile delle città. L’edilizia circolare è qui intesa come un’attività finalizzata alla costruzione e gestione degli edifici all’interno di un ecosistema economico basato sulla circolarità dei processi. L’obiettivo della ricerca è duplice: (i) metodologico, rivolto alla formalizzazione di un modello innovativo d’intervento associato ai principi della circolarità e basato sulla conoscenza approfondita del patrimonio esistente; e (ii) progettuale, prevede la progettazione di un prototipo di unità abitativa e l’applicazione del modello ad un caso di studio, che viene assunto come applicazione sperimentale ad un contesto reale e momento conclusivo del processo. La definizione di una matrice valutativa consente di formulare indicazioni operative nella fase precedente l’intervento per rendere espliciti, attraverso un indice sintetico di supporto decisionale, i criteri su cui fondare le scelte tra le due macro-categorie di intervento (demolizione con ricostruzione o rinnovo).

Transitional Justice as a Post-Revolution Constitutional Arrangement: A Law and Economics Approach

This dissertation addresses the timely questions of transitional justice (TJ) in the aftermath of revolutions against autocratic regimes, dealing with TJ as a constitutional arrangement through the lenses of constitutional economics. After an introductory chapter, chapter 2 deals with why nations rarely adopt meaningful TJ processes in the first place, it then explains the limitations of civil society as the arbiter, facilitator, and enforcer of TJ policies. Chapter 3 tackles the question of which mechanisms to choose? It uses the UN Guidelines on TJ that sets five principal TJ mechanisms. It provides a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of each mechanism and suggests policy implications accordingly. The CBA inspires chapter 4 analysis, suggesting a tradeoff between restrictive fair trial standards under constitutional laws and justice considerations. The tradeoff explains the suggested efficiency of the balanced TJ approaches that combine trials and amnesties. This approach is used for the case study analysis of TJ in Tunisia after the 2011 revolution in chapter 5. The chapter presents the first index of TJ mechanisms in Tunisia through novel data collected by the author. It shows an ultimate TJ design that ended with a modest harvest in the application. The lack of cooperation between the Tunisian parties, added to the absence of transparency in many TJ measures, threatens any possible positive outcomes of the partial TJ process. It is also alarming regarding constitutional compliance in a system that – until recently - was considered the only democracy in the Arab region. Chapter 6 is a summary

Sviluppo ed implementazione di modelli di danno da alluvione per le colture pluriennali

A fronte delle politiche di gestione e mitigazione del rischio alluvionale definite dalla Direttiva Alluvioni (Direttiva 2007/60/CE), risulta necessario sviluppare modelli che riescano a quantificare le conseguenze economiche causate da eventi alluvionali a diversi settori, tra cui il settore agricolo. In questo lavoro di tesi si è posto l’obiettivo di estendere un modello disponibile in letteratura per la stima del danno subito alle colture più diffuse (i.e., seminativi; AGRIDE-c, Molinari et al., 2019) ad altre colture pluriennali, i frutteti, in particolar modo pereti e meleti. Il modello è stato sviluppato a scala regionale, facendo quindi riferimento ai valori di resa, prezzo e costi delle operazioni caratteristici delle pratiche agricole dell’Emilia-Romagna. L’applicazione è stata effettuata su cinque Aree a Potenziale Rischio Significativo (APSFR) del Distretto del fiume Po' e ricadenti all’interno del medesimo territorio regionale (Panaro, Secchia, Reno, Enza, Parma-Baganza). Il modello rappresenta uno strumento utilizzabile dalle Autorità competenti sia ex-post, per la stima speditiva del danno economico subìto dagli agricoltori colpiti dall’alluvione e il loro eventuale risarcimento, che ex-ante, ovvero come strumento di supporto decisionale per le attività di tipo Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) nell’ambito dei piani di gestione e mitigazione del rischio.

The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

Benefit Cost Scenarios of Potential Oral Rabies Vaccination for Skunks in California

Scenario-based analyses were computed for benefits and costs linked with hypothetical oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns to contain or eliminate skunk-variant rabies in skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in California, USA. Scenario 1 assumed baiting eight zones (43,388 km2 total) that comprised 73% of known skunk rabies locations in the state. Scenario 2 also assumed baiting these eight zones, but further assumed that added benefits would result from preventing the spread of skunk-variant rabies into Los Angeles County, USA. Scenarios assumed a fixed bait cost ($1.24 each) but varied campaigns (one, two and three annual ORV applications), densities of baits (37.5/km2, 75/km2 and 150/km2), levels of prevention (50%, 75%, and 100%), and contingency expenditures if rabies recurred (20%, 40%, and 60% of campaign costs). Prorating potential annual benefits during a 12-yr time horizon yielded benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) between 0.16 and 2.91 and between 0.34 and 6.35 for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Economic issues relevant to potentially managing skunk-variant rabies with ORV are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Cost-plus-loss analyses of forest inventory strategies based on kNN-assigned reference sample plot data

Abstract

Road Design for Future Maintenance : Life-cycle Cost Analyses for Road Barriers

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of design, quality of construction as well as maintenance strategies and operations. An optimal life-cycle cost for a road requires evaluations of the above mentioned components. Unfortunately, road designers often neglect a very important aspect, namely, the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. Focus is mainly directed towards other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This doctoral thesis presents the results of a research project aimed to increase consideration of road maintenance aspects in the planning and design process. The following subgoals were established: Identify the obstacles that prevent adequate consideration of future maintenance during the road planning and design process; and Examine optimisation of life-cycle costs as an approach towards increased efficiency during the road planning and design process. The research project started with a literature review aimed at evaluating the extent to which maintenance aspects are considered during road planning and design as an improvement potential for maintenance efficiency. Efforts made by road authorities to increase efficiency, especially maintenance efficiency, were evaluated. The results indicated that all the evaluated efforts had one thing in common, namely ignorance of the interrelationship between geometrical road design and maintenance as an effective tool to increase maintenance efficiency. Focus has mainly been on improving operating practises and maintenance procedures. This fact might also explain why some efforts to increase maintenance efficiency have been less successful. An investigation was conducted to identify the problems and difficulties, which obstruct due consideration of maintainability during the road planning and design process. A method called “Change Analysis” was used to analyse data collected during interviews with experts in road design and maintenance. The study indicated a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects when planning and designing roads. The identified problems were classified into six categories: insufficient consulting, insufficient knowledge, regulations and specifications without consideration of maintenance aspects, insufficient planning and design activities, inadequate organisation and demands from other authorities. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. One of the problems identified in the above mentioned study as an obstacle for due consideration of maintenance aspects during road design was the absence of a model for calculating life-cycle costs for roads. Because of this lack of knowledge, the research project focused on implementing a new approach for calculating and analysing life-cycle costs for roads with emphasis on the relationship between road design and road maintainability. Road barriers were chosen as an example. The ambition is to develop this approach to cover other road components at a later stage. A study was conducted to quantify repair rates for barriers and associated repair costs as one of the major maintenance costs for road barriers. A method called “Case Study Research Method” was used to analyse the effect of several factors on barrier repairs costs, such as barrier type, road type, posted speed and seasonal effect. The analyses were based on documented data associated with 1625 repairs conducted in four different geographical regions in Sweden during 2006. A model for calculation of average repair costs per vehicle kilometres was created. Significant differences in the barrier repair costs were found between the studied barrier types. In another study, the injuries associated with road barrier collisions and the corresponding influencing factors were analysed. The analyses in this study were based on documented data from actual barrier collisions between 2005 and 2008 in Sweden. The result was used to calculate the cost for injuries associated with barrier collisions as a part of the socio-economic cost for road barriers. The results showed significant differences in the number of injuries associated with collisions with different barrier types. To calculate and analyse life-cycle costs for road barriers a new approach was developed based on a method called “Activity-based Life-cycle Costing”. By modelling uncertainties, the presented approach gives a possibility to identify and analyse factors crucial for optimising life-cycle costs. The study showed a great potential to increase road maintenance efficiency through road design. It also showed that road components with low investment costs might not be the best choice when including maintenance and socio-economic aspects. The difficulties and problems faced during the collection of data for calculating life-cycle costs for road barriers indicated a great need for improving current data collecting and archiving procedures. The research focused on Swedish road planning and design. However, the conclusions can be applied to other Nordic countries, where weather conditions and road design practices are similar. The general methodological approaches used in this research project may be applied also to other studies.

Municipal solid waste management in the Caribbean: a benefit-cost analysis

Includes bibliography

Reciprocal cooperation between unrelated rats depends on cost to donor and benefit to recipient

Background Although evolutionary models of cooperation build on the intuition that costs of the donor and benefits to the receiver are the most general fundamental parameters, it is largely unknown how they affect the decision of animals to cooperate with an unrelated social partner. Here we test experimentally whether costs to the donor and need of the receiver decide about the amount of help provided by unrelated rats in an iterated prisoner's dilemma game. Results Fourteen unrelated Norway rats were alternately presented to a cooperative or defective partner for whom they could provide food via a mechanical apparatus. Direct costs for this task and the need of the receiver were manipulated in two separate experiments. Rats provided more food to cooperative partners than to defectors (direct reciprocity). The propensity to discriminate between helpful and non-helpful social partners was contingent on costs: An experimentally increased resistance in one Newton steps to pull food for the social partner reduced the help provided to defectors more strongly than the help returned to cooperators. Furthermore, test rats provided more help to hungry receivers that were light or in poor condition, which might suggest empathy, whereas this relationship was inverse when experimental partners were satiated. Conclusions In a prisoner's dilemma situation rats seem to take effect of own costs and potential benefits to a receiver when deciding about helping a social partner, which confirms the predictions of reciprocal cooperation. Thus, factors that had been believed to be largely confined to human social behaviour apparently influence the behaviour of other social animals as well, despite widespread scepticism. Therefore our results shed new light on the biological basis of reciprocity.