A Rare Obstetric Outcome in Uterus Didelphys with Obstructed Hemivagina and Ipsilateral Renal Agenesis

Background: The unique clinical syndrome of uterus didelphys, obstructed hemivagina, and ipsilateral renal anomaly is very rare and can be quite difficult to recognize because of the enormous heterogeneity in its clinical presentation. There are few long-term reports of the reproductive performance of women with this syndrome following treatment, or about the location of subsequent pregnancies. Case: A case in which two spontaneous pregnancies occurred alternatively in both hemiuteri: one despite a previous ipsilateral large hematometra and hematocolpos and the other, 8 years after, simultaneously with contralateral hematometra and hematocolpos(because of vaginal restenosis), is reported. Drainage of hematocolpos was performed at 14 weeks of pregnancy with immediate pain relief. Results: Pregnancy proceeded without complications. Eight month after delivery, a vaginoplasty was performed by excising the longitudinal vaginal septum, and marsupializing the vaginal cuff. Conclusions: This case highlights the importance of a correct and early diagnosis of developmental anomalies of the urogenital tract, as well as how a conservative approach in a Mullerian anomaly with unilateral obstruction led to two successful pregnancies occurring alternatively in the unaffected and in the previously blocked side. This is additional information supporting that every effort should be made to preserve the obstructed uterus.

Zinc Therapy of Neurological Wilson's Disease in a Woman with Two Foetus with Agenesis of the Corpus Callosum

8A>C>86A G:EDGI: A patient diagnosed Wilson’s disease (WD) 22 years previously, successfully treated initially with zinc, developed neuropsychiatric disease after years of irregular therapy. Reassuming zinc therapy was successful. After a normal pregnancy, she had two therapeutic abortions for corpus callosum agenesis, and a missed abortion. We review the genetics, physiopathology, clinics and imagiologic response to zinc therapy, the problems of pregnancy in WD, advising to maintain therapy. A hypothetic cause for fetus brain anomaly would be hypocupremia due to zinc therapy, confronting with two other possibilities, one related to Wilson’s disease in itself, other due to a congenital syndrome of agenesis of the corpus callosum, impossible to diagnose by our available diagnostic methods.

Evaluation of thermal remote sensing for detection of thermal anomalies as earthquake precursors: a case study for Malatya-Pütürge-Doganyol (Turkey) Earthquake, July 13, 2003

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

A Novel Autosomal Recessive GJA1 Missense Mutation Linked to Craniometaphyseal Dysplasia

Craniometaphyseal dysplasia (CMD) is a rare sclerosing skeletal disorder with progressive hyperostosis of craniofacial bones. CMD can be inherited in an autosomal dominant (AD) trait or occur after de novo mutations in the pyrophosphate transporter ANKH. Although the autosomal recessive (AR)form of CMD had been mapped to 6q21-22 the mutation has been elusive. In this study, we performed whole-exome sequencing for one subject with AR CMD and identified a novel missense mutation (c.716G>A, p.Arg239Gln) in the C-terminus of the gap junction protein alpha-1 (GJA1) coding for connexin 43 (Cx43). We confirmed this mutation in 6 individuals from 3 additional families. The homozygous mutation cosegregated only with affected family members. Connexin 43 is a major component of gap junctions in osteoblasts, osteocytes, osteoclasts and chondrocytes. Gap junctions are responsible for the diffusion of low molecular weight molecules between cells. Mutations in Cx43 cause several dominant and recessive disorders involving developmental abnormalities of bone such as dominant and recessive oculodentodigital dysplasia (ODDD; MIM #164200, 257850) and isolated syndactyly type III (MIM #186100), the characteristic digital anomaly in ODDD. However, characteristic ocular and dental features of ODDD as well as syndactyly are absent in patients with the recessive Arg239Gln Cx43 mutation. Bone remodeling mechanisms disrupted by this novel Cx43 mutation remain to be elucidated.

Estudo sobre viabilidade de produção descentralizada de energia à custa do efeito chaminé

A procura por alternativas ao atual paradigma energético, que se caracteriza por uma predominância indiscutível das fontes combustíveis fósseis, é o motivo primário desta investigação. A energia emitida pelo Sol que chega à Terra diariamente ultrapassa em várias ordens de grandeza a energia que a nossa sociedade atual necessita. O efeito chaminé é uma das formas de aproveitar essa energia. Este efeito tem origem no diferencial de temperaturas existente entre o interior e o exterior de uma chaminé, que provoca um gradiente nas massas volúmicas do fluido entre o interior e o exterior da chaminé, induzindo assim um fluxo de ar. Esta diferença de temperaturas radica na exposição da face exterior da chaminé à radiação solar. No sistema que nos propomos estudar, o ar entra na chaminé por pequenos orifícios situados na sua base, e, ao tomar contacto com as paredes internas da chaminé, aquece desde a temperatura ambiente, Ta, até à temperatura interna, Ti . Este aumento de temperatura torna o ar dentro da chaminé mais “leve” em comparação com o ar mais frio do exterior levando-o a ascender ao longo do interior da chaminé. Este escoamento contém energia cinética que pode, por exemplo, ser transformada em energia elétrica por intermédio de turbinas. A eficiência de conversão da energia será tanto maior quanto menor for a velocidade do ar a jusante da turbina. Esta tecnologia poderá ser instalada de forma descentralizada, como acontece com as atuais centrais concentradoras solares térmicas e fotovoltaicas localizadas na periferia de grandes cidades ou, alternativamente, poderá ser inserida no próprio tecido urbanístico. A investigação demonstra que as dimensões da chaminé, a irradiação e a temperatura do ar são os fatores com maior impacto na potência hidráulica gerada.

Atrial Septal Defects

Atrial septal defects are the third most common type of congenital heart disease. Included in this group of malformations are several types of atrial communications that allow shunting of blood between the systemic and the pulmonary circulations. Most children with isolated atrial septal defects are free of symptoms, but the rates of exercise intolerance, atrial tachyarrhythmias, right ventricular dysfunction, and pulmonary hypertension increase with advancing age and life expectancy is reduced in adults with untreated defects. The risk of development of pulmonary vascular disease, a potentially lethal complication, is higher in female patients and in older adults with untreated defects. Surgical closure is safe and effective and when done before age 25 years is associated with normal life expectancy. Transcatheter closure offers a less invasive alternative for patients with a secundum defect who fulfil anatomical and size criteria. In this Seminar we review the causes, anatomy, pathophysiology, treatment, and outcomes of atrial septal defects in children and adult patients in whom this defect is the primary cardiac anomaly.

Patologia óssea do insuficiente renal crónico: desafio clínico-biológico ; Caracterização da osteodistrofia renal e efeitos da biocompatibilidade de membranas de hemodiálise, na remodelação óssea

Resumo: Os resultados das nossas investigações, apresentadas ao longo desta dissertação,contribuíram para a otimização do diagnóstico invasivo e não invasivo da osteodistrofia renal e permitiram evidenciar a relevância, para a expressão clínica e histológica da ODR, de algumas articularidades específicas da população hemodialisada, nomeadamente: a utilização de membranas de hemodiálise mais biocompatíveis e com elevada permeabilidade, o recurso a técnicas de hemodiafiltração com otimização da capacidade convectiva, as limitações dos marcadores bioquímicos de remodelação óssea ou a insuficiência / deficiência em vitamina D nativa (bem como os resultados da suplementação com esta vitamina). Testámos, pela primeira vez em doentes hemodialisados, novos marcadores da formação e reabsorção óssea, que validámos mediante a comparação com os resultados da histomorfometria óssea. No seu conjunto, e de forma integrada, as nossas investigações permitiram-nos: - Evidenciar a diminuição da expressão do recetor da PTH/PTHrP na cartilagem de crescimento, num modelo animal de IRC, o que explica, pelo menos em parte, o atraso de crescimento observado nesta patologia, bem como a diminuição da resposta à ação da PTH; - Demonstrar as vantagens da determinação da isoforma óssea da fosfatase alcalina, em relação à fosfatase alcalina total, no diagnóstico diferencial entre baixa e elevada remodelação óssea; - Utilizar, pela primeira vez em hemodialisados, a piridinolina e a desoxipiridinolina no diagnóstico da reabsorção óssea. Este foi o primeiro marcador sérico específico da atividade osteoclástica, utilizado com sucesso em doentes anúricos em hemodiálise. Evidenciámos uma excelente correlação destes dois marcadores bioquímicos com a superfície osteoclástica e com o número de osteoclastos/mm2;- Demonstrar as acentuadas limitações de outros marcadores da formação e reabsorção óssea (nomeadamente a osteocalcina, o propeptido carboxiterminal do procolagénio tipo I-PICP, e o Telopeptido do colagénio tipo I – ICTP) com base nas correlações entre os doseamentos séricos ou plasmáticos destes marcadores e a biópsia óssea com avaliação histomorfométrica; -Evidenciar as limitações induzidas pela sobrecarga alumínica na interpretação dos níveis séricos dos marcadores não invasivos da remodelação óssea;-Testar a eficácia e segurança da utilização de “microdoses” de desferroxamina na terapêutica da intoxicação alumínica, em doentes com acentuada exposição a este metal;-Demonstrar que os doentes hemodialisados cronicamente com dialisadores de poliacrilonitrilo (membranas de alta permeabilidade),apresentavam menor ativação osteoblástica e osteoclástica, que os doentes dialisados com membranas de cuprofano(baixa permeabilidade), sendo os níveis de iPTH semelhantes em ambos os grupos estudados. Estes resultados apontam para uma menor ativação da remodelação óssea quando se utilizam membranas de hemodiálise mais biocompatíveis e/ou de maior permeabilidade, o que se poderá relacionar com a ultrafiltração de mediadores da ativação celular ou com a menor ativação dos mecanismos estimuladores da remodelação óssea, por parte destas membranas. Entre os mediadores da remodelação óssea que demonstrámos serem relevantes e estarem aumentados no soro de hemodialisados com membranas de baixo fluxo, contam-se a beta-2-microglobulina (2-M) e algumas citoquinas, com ação estimuladora das linhagens celulares envolvidas na remodelação óssea. Demonstrámos igualmente uma correlação positiva dos níveis séricos de 2-M com os níveis séricos da osteocalcina, da isoenzima óssea da fosfatase alcalina (marcadores da formação óssea) e com os níveis séricos da piridinolina (marcador da reabsorção óssea). Os níveis séricos de 2-M correlacionaram-se ainda, de forma negativa, com o volume osteoide (matriz óssea não calcificada). Nestes doentes hemodialisados, demonstrámos a presença de níveis séricos aumentados da interleucina-1, do antagonista do recetor da interleucina-1, da interleucina-6 e do recetor solúvel da interleucina-6. Salientamos as relações inversas que observámos, por um lado entre os níveis de antagonista do recetor da interleucina-1 e a superfície osteoblástica, e por outro lado entre o rácio do recetor da interleucina-6 / interleucina-6 (IL6-r/IL6) e a superfície osteoclástica. De acordo com estes nossos resultados originais, entendemos que a interferência nos níveis circulantes e na ativação local destes mediadores poderá justificar, em grande parte, o aumento da prevalência de doença óssea adinâmica, descrita por nós e por outros grupos. Evidenciámos uma elevadíssima prevalência de doença adinâmica (>50% dos doentes), numa população de hemodialisados sem exposição prévia ao alumínio, tratados de acordo com os K/DOQI “guidelines” e que ao longo de um ano mantiveram níveis séricos de cálcio e de fósforo controlados. Consequentemente, os doentes tratados de forma otimizada apresentaram uma prevalência surpreendentemente elevada de doença adinâmica. Os nossos resultados (classificados com o grau de evidência máxima pelos peritos KDIGO) contribuíram para dar suporte à grande diferença nos guidelines K/DOQI (2003) e KDIGO (2009) no que respeita aos valores alvo da PTH. Estamos conscientes que de que o facto de termos uma percentagem tão elevada de doença óssea adinâmica nas nossas populações de hemodialisados, bem como a demonstração de que alguns doentes com valores de PTH intacta (2ª geração) de cerca de 600 pg/ml tinham doença óssea adinâmica, condicionaram os novos objetivos KDIGO para a PTH. Os nossos resultados suportam, em nossa opinião, a adequação e vantagem da utilização dos critérios da KDIGO em vez dos KDOQI. Tendo em conta que os primeiros definem objetivos para a PTH entre 2 e 9 vezes o limite superior do normal e não se comprometem com valores alvo absolutos e rígidos (definidos previamente nos KDOQI entre 150 e 300 pg/mL), esta nova abordagem parece-nos mais correta.Na nossa investigação clínica, caracterizámos ainda a população hemodialisada portuguesa no que respeita aos níveis séricos de calcidiol, identificando a população com suficiência, insuficiência ou deficiência em vitamina D3. Documentámos uma acentuada prevalência de insuficiência e mesmo de deficiência nesta vitamina, numa vasta população de hemodialisados, a qual, muito provavelmente, reflete de forma fidedigna, o que se pode observar na restante população de doentes portugueses IRC em estádio 5d (em diálise). Descrevemos, pela primeira vez em doentes hemodialisados, uma associação entre deficiência em calcidiol e a presença de fatores de risco cardiovascular (que têm sido identificados nos doentes urémicos). A nossa investigação conduziu-nos a resultados originais, ao identificar os níveis baixos de 25(OH)vitamina D3 como um provável fator de risco cardiovascular em hemodialisados, visto que a deficiência nesta vitamina se associou, de forma muito significativa, ao aumento da prevalência de calcificações vasculares, a inflamação, a pressão de pulso mais elevada, a hipertrofia ventricular esquerda, a insuficiência cardíaca e a níveis séricos aumentados de “BNP-Brain natriuretic peptide”. Finalmente, numa avaliação prospetiva, de intervenção terapêutica, corrigimos a insuficiência ou deficiência em 25(OH)vitamina D3 e demonstrámos que essa correção se associou a uma redução dos fatores de risco cardiovascular. Esta última intervenção foi totalmente inovadora, visto ser a primeira avaliação prospetiva da evolução dos fatores de risco cardiovasculares, em função da suplementação com vitamina D nativa, em doentes hemodialisados. Em resumo, pensamos que os resultados das nossas investigações, acima sumarizadas e apresentadas ao longo dos diversos capítulos desta dissertação,contribuiram para uma nova perspetiva da osteodistrofia renal e para recolocar o foco da atenção dos nefrologistas no tecido ósseo e no eixo paratormona – vitamina D – remodelação óssea. Este eixo surje claramente envolvido em múltiplos processos fisiopatológicos, que suportam a elevada morbilidade e mortalidade (nomeadamente de causa cardiovascular) observada nos doentes urémicos.---------ABSTRACT: The results of our research, presented throughout this thesis, contributed towards the optimisation of the invasive and non-invasive diagnosis of renal osteodystrophy. They have also highlighted the importance, to the clinical and histological expression of the ODR, of some specific characteristics of the haemodialysis population, including: the use of biocompatible high permeability haemodialysis membranes, the use of haemodiafiltration techniques with convection enhancement, as well as the limitations of biochemical markers of bone turnover or native vitamin D insufficiency/deficiency (along with the supplementation results of this vitamin). New bone formation and resorption markers, which were validated by comparison with the results of bone histomorphometry, have been tested for the first time on haemodialysis patients.As a whole, and in an integrated approach, our research enabled us to: - Show the decrease of the PTH/PTHrP receptor expression in cartilage growth, used on an IRC animal model, which explains, to some extent, not only the delayed growth observed in this pathology, but also the slow response to PTH. - Point out the advantages of the determination of bone isoform of alkaline phosphatase, in relation to the total alkaline phosphatase, in the differential diagnosis between low and high-bone turnover.- Use pyridinoline and deoxypyridinoline in the diagnosis of bone resorption for the first time on haemodialysis patients. This was the first specific serum market of the osteoclastic activity, which was successfully used on anuric patients undergoing haemodialysis treatment. We also observed an excellent correlation of these biochemical markers with the osteoclastic surface and the number of osteoclasts/mm2. - Demonstrate the sharp limitations of other markers of bone formation and resorption (namely osteocalcin, carboxyterminal propeptide of type I-PICP procollagen and telopeptide of type I-ICTP collagen) based on correlations between these markers’ serum or plasma assays and bone biopsy with histomorphometric assessment.-Show the limitations induced by aluminium overload in the interpretation of serum levels of bone remodelling non-invasive markers.-Test the efficacy and the safety of the use of deferoxamine “microdoses” for treatment of aluminium overload among patients with high levels of serum aluminium. - Demonstrate that patients with chronic haemodialysis dialysers of polyacrylonitrile (high permeability membranes) show a lower osteoblastic and osteoclastic activation than those undergoing dialysis with cuprofan membranes (low permeability), being the iPTH levels similar in both groups of patients. These findings point towards a lower activation of bone remodelling when using more biocompatible dialysis membranes and/or of higher permeability, which may relate to the ultrafiltration of cell activation mediators or to the lower activation of the stimulating mechanisms of bone remodelling, regarding the membranes. Beta-2-microglobulin (2-M) and some cytokines that play a role/participate in bone remodelling are among the bone remodelling mediators, which we demonstrated to be relevant and to be increased in the serum of haemodialysis with low flow membranes. We also proved that there is a positive correlation of serum 2-M levels not only with serum osteocalcin levels, of the bone isoenzyme of alkaline phosphatase (bone forming markers), but also with levels of serum pyridinoline (bone resorption marker).Serum 2-M levels correlate negatively with the volume of osteoid (uncalcified bone matrix). We also demonstrated the presence of elevated serum levels of interleukin-1,interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6 and soluble interleukin-6 receptor in haemodialysis patients. We stress the inverse relationship which we observed on one hand between the interleukin-1 receptor antagonist levels and the osteoblastic surface and on the other between the ratio of interleukin-6 receptor / interleukin-6 (IL6-r/IL6) and the osteoblastic surface. According to these unique findings, we believe that the interference in the circulating levels and in the local activation of these mediators may partly explain the rising prevalence of adynamic bone disease. A high prevalence of adynamic disease has also been observed in a haemodialysis population (>50% of patients) with no previous exposure to aluminium. The patients were treated according to K/DOQI guidelines and maintained controlled serum calcium and phosphorus levels over one year. As a result, the patients who received optimised treatment showed a surprisingly high prevalence of adynamic disease. Our results, which were ranked with the highest degree of evidence by KDIGO experts, contributed to the great difference regarding the target values of PTH in the K/DOQI (2003) and KDIGO (2009) guidelines. We are aware that the finding of such a high percentage of adynamic bone disease in our haemodialysis population, as well as the evidence that some patients with intact PTH values (2nd generation) of 600 pg/ml suffered from adynamic bone disease, have hindered, the new KDIGO objectives to PTH.In our opinion, our results support the suitability and the advantage of using KDIGO criteria instead of KDOQI. This seems to be the right approach when taking into consideration that KDIGO sets objectives to PTH between 2 and 9 times the normal upper limit and does not compromise with the rigid and absolute target values (between 150 and 300 pg/mL) previously defined by KDOQI. In our clinical research, the Portuguese haemodialysis population was characterised in terms of serum clacidiol levels and identified as having vitamin D3 sufficiency, insufficiency or deficiency. It was also recorded the prevalence of severe vitamin D3 insufficiency and even deficiency in a large haemodialysis population, which most likely provides a reliable picture of the rest of the population in IRC Portuguese patients with 5d stage (undergoing dialysis). We described for the first time in aemosialysis patients an association between calcidiol deficiency and the presence of ardiovascular risk factors, (which have been identified on uraemic patients).Our research led us to unique findings by having identified the low levels of 25(OH) vitamin D3 as a likely cardiovascular risk factor in patients undergoing haemodialysis treatment, given that deficiency in this vitamin has been significantly associated not only with a rise in the prevalence of vascular calcifications, but also inflammation, left ventricular hypertrophy, high pulse pressure and high serum BNPBrain natriuretic peptide levels. Finally, based on a prospective assessment of therapeutic intervention, 25(OH)vitamin D3 insufficiency or deficiency was corrected and we were able to demonstrate that this same correction was associated with a reduction in cardiovascular risk factors. This was a forward-looking intervention regarding the supplementation of native vitamin D in haemodialysis patients, since it was the first prospective assessment of the evolution of cardiovascular risk factors. In short, the results of our research, summarised above and presented throughout the various chapters of this thesis, contributed towards a new perspective of the renal osteodystrophy and also to draw the nephrologists’ attention to the bone tissue and to the axis PTH – vitamin D – bone remodelling. This axis appears clearly involved in multiple physiopathological processes, which support the high morbidity and mortality rate, (particularly of cardiovascular causes), observed in uraemic patients.

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Towards cryogenic liquid –vapor energy storage units for space applications

Dissertation to obtain the Doctoral degree in Physics Engineering

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

Noonan syndrome: a clinical and genetic study of 31 patients

Noonan syndrome is a multiple congenital anomaly syndrome, inherited in an autosomal dominant pattern. We studied 31 patients (18 males and 13 females) affected by this disorder regarding their clinical and genetic characteristics. The most frequent clinical findings were short stature (71%); craniofacial dysmorphisms, especially hypertelorism, ptosis, downslanting of the palpebral fissures; short or webbed neck (87%); cardiac anomalies (65%), and fetal pads in fingers and toes (70%). After studying the probands' first-degree relatives, we made the diagnosis of Noonan syndrome in more than one family member in three families. Therefore, the majority of our cases were sporadic.

Hematological findings in Noonan syndrome

OBJECTIVE: Noonan syndrome is a multiple congenital anomaly syndrome, and bleeding diathesis is considered part of the clinical findings. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency of hemostatic abnormalities in a group of Noonan syndrome patients. METHOD: We studied 30 patients with clinical diagnosis of Noonan syndrome regarding their hemostatic status consisting of bleeding time, prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time and thrombin time tests, a platelet count, and a quantitative determination of factor XI. RESULTS: An abnormal laboratory result was observed in 9 patients (30%). Although coagulation-factor deficiencies, especially factor XI deficiency, were the most common hematological findings, we also observed abnormalities of platelet count and function in our screening. CONCLUSIONS: Hemostatic abnormalities are found with some frequency in Noonan syndrome patients (30% in our sample). Therefore, we emphasize the importance of a more extensive hematological investigation in these patients, especially prior to an invasive procedure, which is required with some frequency in this disorder.

A comparative review of risk based portfolio allocations: An empirical study throughout rising yields

Since the financial crisis, risk based portfolio allocations have gained a great deal in popularity. This increase in popularity is primarily due to the fact that they make no assumptions as to the expected return of the assets in the portfolio. These portfolios implicitly put risk management at the heart of asset allocation and thus their recent appeal. This paper will serve as a comparison of four well-known risk based portfolio allocation methods; minimum variance, maximum diversification, inverse volatility and equally weighted risk contribution. Empirical backtests will be performed throughout rising interest rate periods from 1953 to 2015. Additionally, I will compare these portfolios to more simple allocation methods, such as equally weighted and a 60/40 asset-allocation mix. This paper will help to answer the question if these portfolios can survive in a rising interest rate environment.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Assessment of NDVI, land surface temperature and precipitation anomalies for drought monitoring in Bayankhongor province, Mongolia

During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables over very large areas where the weather stations are sparse. The present thesis aimed to explore the possibility of using NDVI as a potential drought indicator by studying anomaly patterns and correlations with other two climate variables, LST and precipitation. The study covered the growing season (March to September) of a fifteen year period, between 2000 and 2014, for Bayankhongor province in southwest Mongolia. The datasets used were MODIS NDVI, LST and TRMM Precipitation, which processing and analysis was supported by QGIS software and Python programming language. Monthly anomaly correlations between NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation were generated as well as temporal correlations for the growing season for known drought years (2001, 2002 and 2009). The results show that the three variables follow a seasonal pattern expected for a northern hemisphere region, with occurrence of the rainy season in the summer months. The values of both NDVI and precipitation are remarkably low while LST values are high, which is explained by the region’s climate and ecosystems. The NDVI average, generally, reached higher values with high precipitation values and low LST values. The year of 2001 was the driest year of the time-series, while 2003 was the wet year with healthier vegetation. Monthly correlations registered weak results with low significance, with exception of NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation correlations for June, July and August of 2002. The temporal correlations for the growing season also revealed weak results. The overall relationship between the variables anomalies showed weak correlation results with low significance, which suggests that an accurate answer for predicting drought using the relation between NDVI, LST and Precipitation cannot be given. Additional research should take place in order to achieve more conclusive results. However the NDVI anomaly images show that NDVI is a suitable drought index for Bayankhongor province.