904 resultados para calibration of rainfall-runoff models


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A number of liquid argon time projection chambers (LAr TPCs) are being built or are proposed for neutrino experiments on long- and short baseline beams. For these detectors, a distortion in the drift field due to geometrical or physics reasons can affect the reconstruction of the events. Depending on the TPC geometry and electric drift field intensity, this distortion could be of the same magnitude as the drift field itself. Recently, we presented a method to calibrate the drift field and correct for these possible distortions. While straight cosmic ray muon tracks could be used for calibration, multiple coulomb scattering and momentum uncertainties allow only a limited resolution. A UV laser instead can create straight ionization tracks in liquid argon, and allows one to map the drift field along different paths in the TPC inner volume. Here we present a UV laser feed-through design with a steerable UV mirror immersed in liquid argon that can point the laser beam at many locations through the TPC. The straight ionization paths are sensitive to drift field distortions, a fit of these distortion to the linear optical path allows to extract the drift field, by using these laser tracks along the whole TPC volume one can obtain a 3D drift field map. The UV laser feed-through assembly is a prototype of the system that will be used for the MicroBooNE experiment at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL).

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To calibrate the in situ 10Be production rate, we collected surface samples from nine large granitic boulders within the deposits of a rock avalanche that occurred in AD 1717 in the upper Ferret Valley, Mont Blanc Massif, Italy. The 10Be concentrations were extremely low and successfully measured within 10% analytical uncertainty or less. The concentrations vary from 4829 ± 448 to 5917 ± 476 at g−1. Using the historical age exposure time, we calculated the local and sea level-high latitude (i.e. ≥60°) cosmogenic 10Be spallogenic production rates. Depending on the scaling schemes, these vary between 4.60 ± 0.38 and 5.26 ± 0.43 at g−1 a−1. Although they correlate well with global values, our production rates are clearly higher than those from more recent calibration sites. We conclude that our 10Be production rate is a mean and an upper bound for production rates in the Massif region over the past 300 years. This rate is probably influenced by inheritance and will yield inaccurate (e.g. too young) exposure ages when applied to surface-exposure studies in the area. Other independently dated rock-avalanche deposits in the region that are approximately 103 years old could be considered as possible calibration sites.

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Palaeoclimatic information can be retrieved from the diffusion of the stable water isotope signal during firnification of snow. The diffusion length, a measure for the amount of diffusion a layer has experienced, depends on the firn temperature and the accumulation rate. We show that the estimation of the diffusion length using power spectral densities (PSDs) of the record of a single isotope species can be biased by uncertainties in spectral properties of the isotope signal prior to diffusion. By using a second water isotope and calculating the difference in diffusion lengths between the two isotopes, this problem is circumvented. We study the PSD method applied to two isotopes in detail and additionally present a new forward diffusion method for retrieving the differential diffusion length based on the Pearson correlation between the two isotope signals. The two methods are discussed and extensively tested on synthetic data which are generated in a Monte Carlo manner. We show that calibration of the PSD method with this synthetic data is necessary to be able to objectively determine the differential diffusion length. The correlation-based method proves to be a good alternative for the PSD method as it yields precision equal to or somewhat higher than the PSD method. The use of synthetic data also allows us to estimate the accuracy and precision of the two methods and to choose the best sampling strategy to obtain past temperatures with the required precision. In addition to application to synthetic data the two methods are tested on stable-isotope records from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, showing that reliable firn temperatures can be reconstructed with a typical uncertainty of 1.5 and 2 °C for the Holocene period and 2 and 2.5 °C for the last glacial period for the correlation and PSD method, respectively.

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INTRODUCTION This paper focuses exclusively on experimental models with ultra high dilutions (i.e. beyond 10(-23)) that have been submitted to replication scrutiny. It updates previous surveys, considers suggestions made by the research community and compares the state of replication in 1994 with that in 2015. METHODS Following literature research, biochemical, immunological, botanical, cell biological and zoological studies on ultra high dilutions (potencies) were included. Reports were grouped into initial studies, laboratory-internal, multicentre and external replications. Repetition could yield either comparable, or zero, or opposite results. The null-hypothesis was that test and control groups would not be distinguishable (zero effect). RESULTS A total of 126 studies were found. From these, 28 were initial studies. When all 98 replicative studies were considered, 70.4% (i.e. 69) reported a result comparable to that of the initial study, 20.4% (20) zero effect and 9.2% (9) an opposite result. Both for the studies until 1994 and the studies 1995-2015 the null-hypothesis (dominance of zero results) should be rejected. Furthermore, the odds of finding a comparable result are generally higher than of finding an opposite result. Although this is true for all three types of replication studies, the fraction of comparable studies diminishes from laboratory-internal (total 82.9%) to multicentre (total 75%) to external (total 48.3%), while the fraction of opposite results was 4.9%, 10.7% and 13.8%. Furthermore, it became obvious that the probability of an external replication producing comparable results is bigger for models that had already been further scrutinized by the initial researchers. CONCLUSIONS We found 28 experimental models which underwent replication. In total, 24 models were replicated with comparable results, 12 models with zero effect, and 6 models with opposite results. Five models were externally reproduced with comparable results. We encourage further replications of studies in order to learn more about the model systems used.

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The goal of this work has been to calibrate sensitivities and fragmentation pattern of various molecules as well as further characterize the lab model of the ROSINA Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer (DFMS) on board ESA’s Rosetta spacecraft bound to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The detailed calibration and characterization of the instrument is key to understand and interpret the results in the coma of the comet. A static calibration was performed for the following species: Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe, H2O, N2, CO2, CH4, C2H6, C3H8, C4H10, and C2H4. The purpose of the calibration was to obtain sensitivities for all detectors and emissions, the fragmentation behavior of the ion source and to show the capabilities to measure isotopic ratios at the comet. The calibration included the recording of different correction factors to evaluate the data, including a detailed investigation of the detector gain. The quality of the calibration that could be tested for different gas mixtures including the calibration of the density inside the ion source when calibration gas from the gas calibration unit is introduced. In conclusion the calibration shows that DFMS meets the design requirements and that DFMS will be able to measure the D/H at the comet and help shed more light on the puzzle about the origin of water on Earth.

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We calibrated the ⁸¹Kr-Kr dating system for ordinary chondrites of different sizes using independent shielding-corrected ³⁶Cl-³⁶Ar ages. Krypton concentrations and isotopic compositions were measured in bulk samples from 14 ordinary chondrites of high petrologic type and the cosmogenic Kr component was obtained by subtracting trapped Kr from phase Q. The thus-determined average cosmogenic ⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr, ⁸⁰Kr/⁸³Kr, ⁸²Kr/⁸³Kr, and ⁸4Kr/⁸³Kr ratiC(Lavielle and Marti 1988; Wieler 2002). The cosmogenic ⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr ratio is correlated with the cosmogenic 22Ne/21Ne ratio, confirming that ⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr is a reliable shielding indicator. Previously, ⁸¹Kr-Kr ages have been determined by assuming the cosmogenic production rate of ⁸¹Kr, P(⁸¹Kr)c, to be 0.95 times the average of the cosmogenic production rates of ⁸⁰Kr and ⁸²Kr; the factor Y = 0.95 therefore accounts for the unequal production of the various Kr isotopes (Marti 1967a). However, Y should be regarded as an empirical adjustment. For samples whose ⁸⁰Kr and ⁸²Kr concentrations may be affected by neutron-capture reactions, the shielding-dependent cosmogenic (⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr)c ratio has been used instead to calculate P(⁸¹Kr)/P(⁸³Kr), as for some lunar samples, this ratio has been shown to linearly increase with (⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr)c (Marti and Lugmair 1971). However, the ⁸¹Kr-Kr ages of our samples calculated with these methods are on average ~30% higher than their ³⁶Cl-³⁶Ar ages, indicating that most if not all the ⁸¹Kr-Kr ages determined so far are significantly too high. We therefore re-evaluated both methods to determine P(⁸¹Kr)c/P(⁸³Kr)c. Our new Y value of 0.70 ± 0.04 is more than 25% lower than the value of 0.95 used so far. Furthermore, together with literature data, our data indicate that for chondrites, P(⁸¹Kr)c/P(⁸³Kr)c is rather constant at 0.43 ± 0.02, at least for the shielding range covered by our samples ([⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr]c = 0.119–0.185; [22Ne/21Ne]c = 1.083–1.144), in contrast to the observations on lunar samples. As expected considering the method used, ⁸¹Kr-Kr ages calculated either directly with this new P(⁸¹Kr)c/P(⁸³Kr)c value or with our new Y value both agree with the corresponding ³⁶Cl-³⁶Ar ages. However, the average deviation of 2% indicates the accuracy of both new ⁸¹Kr-Kr dating methods and the precision of the new dating systems of ~10% is demonstrated by the low scatter in the data. Consequently, this study indicates that the ⁸¹Kr-Kr ages published so far are up to 30% too high.

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Stable isotope analyses of discrete seasonal layers from a 108-yr annually laminated freeze-core from Baldeg-gersee, a small, eutrophic lake in central Switzerland, provide information on the climatological and environmental factors, including lake eutrophication, that control oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of epilimnic biologically induced calcite precipitate. During the last 100 yr, Baldeggersee has undergone major increases in productivity and eutrophication in response to nutrient loading from agriculture and industrialization in the lake's watershed. Calibration of the isotopic signal in Baldeggersee to historical limnological data quantitatively links evidence of isotopic depletion in the sedimented calcite to trophic state of the lake. δ18O values from the spring/summer “light” sediment layers steadily diverged to more depleted values in response to historical eutrophication: measured δ18O values were up to 21.5‰ more negative than calculated equilibrium δ18O values. Evidence for 13C depletion in the calcite, relative to equilibrium values, is more difficult to ascertain because of an overall dominance of isotopic enrichment in the dissolved inorganic pool as productivity in Baldeggersee increases. A positive association exists between the degree of oxygen-18 depletion and the calcite crystal size. Thus, large amorphous calcite grains can be used as a proxy for recognizing apparent isotopic nonequilibrium in sediment sequences from highly productive lacustrine environments from all geologic time scales. In contrast to the light layers, the oxygen isotopic composition of the calcite in the late summer/fall “dark” sediment layers is unaffected by the apparent isotope nonequilibrium. Oxygen and carbon isotope values from the dark laminae in the Baldeggersee sediment therefore provide environmental and climatological proxies that can be calibrated with known environmental and regional climate data for the last century.

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Consider a nonparametric regression model Y=mu*(X) + e, where the explanatory variables X are endogenous and e satisfies the conditional moment restriction E[e|W]=0 w.p.1 for instrumental variables W. It is well known that in these models the structural parameter mu* is 'ill-posed' in the sense that the function mapping the data to mu* is not continuous. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bounds for estimating linear functionals E[p(X)mu*(X)] and int_{supp(X)}p(x)mu*(x)dx, where p is a known weight function and supp(X) the support of X, without assuming mu* to be well-posed or even identified.

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Studies on the relationship between psychosocial determinants and HIV risk behaviors have produced little evidence to support hypotheses based on theoretical relationships. One limitation inherent in many articles in the literature is the method of measurement of the determinants and the analytic approach selected. ^ To reduce the misclassification associated with unit scaling of measures specific to internalized homonegativity, I evaluated the psychometric properties of the Reactions to Homosexuality scale in a confirmatory factor analytic framework. In addition, I assessed the measurement invariance of the scale across racial/ethnic classifications in a sample of men who have sex with men. The resulting measure contained eight items loading on three first-order factors. Invariance assessment identified metric and partial strong invariance between racial/ethnic groups in the sample. ^ Application of the updated measure to a structural model allowed for the exploration of direct and indirect effects of internalized homonegativity on unprotected anal intercourse. Pathways identified in the model show that drug and alcohol use at last sexual encounter, the number of sexual partners in the previous three months and sexual compulsivity all contribute directly to risk behavior. Internalized homonegativity reduced the likelihood of exposure to drugs, alcohol or higher numbers of partners. For men who developed compulsive sexual behavior as a coping strategy for internalized homonegativity, there was an increase in the prevalence odds of risk behavior. ^ In the final stage of the analysis, I conducted a latent profile analysis of the items in the updated Reactions to Homosexuality scale. This analysis identified five distinct profiles, which suggested that the construct was not homogeneous in samples of men who have sex with men. Lack of prior consideration of these distinct manifestations of internalized homonegativity may have contributed to the analytic difficulty in identifying a relationship between the trait and high-risk sexual practices. ^

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A reliable assessment of relevant substance flows is very important for environmental risk assessments and efficiency analysis of measures to reduce or avoid emissions of micropollutants like drugs to water systems. Accordingly, a detailed preparation of monitoring campaigns should include an accuracy check for the sampling configuration to prove the reliability of the monitoring results and the subsequent data processing. The accuracy of substance flow analyses is expected to be particularly weak for substances having high short-term variations of concentrations in sewage. This is especially the case linked to the observation of substance flows close to source in waste water systems. The verification of a monitoring configuration in a hospital sewer in Luxembourg is in the centre of interest of the case study presented here. A tracer test in the sewer system under observation is an essential element of the suggested accuracy check and provides valuable information for an uncertainty analysis. The results illustrate the importance of accuracy checks as an essential element of the preparation of monitoring campaigns. Moreover the study shows that continuous flow proportional sampling enables a representative observation of short-term peak loads of the iodinated x-ray contrast media iobitridol close to source.

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Appropriate field data are required to check the reliability of hydrodynamic models simulating the dispersion of soluble substances in the marine environment. This study deals with the collection of physical measurements and soluble tracer data intended specifically for this kind of validation. The intensity of currents as well as the complexity of topography and tides around the Cap de La Hague in the center of the English Channel makes it one of the most difficult areas to represent in terms of hydrodynamics and dispersion. Controlled releases of tritium - in the form of HTO - are carried out in this area by the AREVA-NC plant, providing an excellent soluble tracer. A total of 14 493 measurements were acquired to track dispersion in the hours and days following a release. These data, supplementing previously gathered data and physical measurements (bathymetry, water-surface levels, Eulerian and Lagrangian current studies) allow us to test dispersion models from the hour following release to periods of several years which are not accessible with dye experiments. The dispersion characteristics are described and methods are proposed for comparing models against measurements. An application is proposed for a 2 dimensions high-resolution numerical model. It shows how an extensive dataset can be used to build, calibrate and validate several aspects of the model in a highly dynamic and macrotidal area: tidal cycle timing, tidal amplitude, fixed-point current data, hodographs. This study presents results concerning the model's ability to reproduce residual Lagrangian currents, along with a comparison between simulation and high-frequency measurements of tracer dispersion. Physical and tracer data are available from the SISMER database of IFREMER (www.ifremer.fr/sismer/catal). This tool for validation of models in macro-tidal seas is intended to be an open and evolving resource, which could provide a benchmark for dispersion model validation.

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The MBT-CBT proxy for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures and past soil pH is based on the distribution of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) membrane lipids. The Methylation of Branched Tetraether (MBT) and the Cyclisation of Branched Tetraether (CBT) indices were developed to quantify these distributions, and significant empirical relations between these indices and annual mean air temperature (MAT) and/or soil pH were found in a large data set of soils. In this study, we extended this soil dataset to 278 globally distributed surface soils. Of these soils, 26% contains all nine brGDGTs, while in 63% of the soils the seven most common brGDGTs were detected, and the latter were selected for calibration purposes. This resulted in new transfer functions for the reconstruction of pH based on the CBT index: pH = 7.90-1.97 × CBT (r**2 = 0.70; RMSE = 0.8; n = 176), as well as for MAT based on the CBT index and methylation index based on the seven most abundant GDGTs (defined as MBT'): MAT = 0.81-5.67 × CBT + 31.0 × MBT' (r**2 = 0.59; RMSE = 5.0 °C; n = 176). The new transfer function for MAT has a substantially lower correlation coefficient than the original equation (r**2 = 0.77). To investigate possible improvement of the correlation, we used our extended global surface soil dataset to statistically derive the indices that best describe the relations of brGDGT composition with MAT and soil pH. These new indices, however, resulted in only a relatively minor increase in correlation coefficients, while they cannot be explained straightforwardly by physiological mechanisms. The large scatter in the calibration cannot be fully explained by local factors or by seasonality, but MAT for soils from arid regions are generally substantially (up to 20 °C) underestimated, suggesting that absolute brGDGT-based temperature records for these areas should be interpreted with caution. The applicability of the new MBT'-CBT calibration function was tested using previously published MBT-CBT-derived paleotemperature records covering the last deglaciation in Central Africa and East Asia, the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The results show that trends remain similar in all records, but that absolute temperature estimates and the amplitude of temperature changes are lower for most records, and generally in better agreement with independent proxy data.

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