Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera

First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera.- Genome size diversity in angiosperms varies roughly 2400-fold, although approximately 45% of angiosperm families lack a single genome size estimation, and therefore, this range could be enlarged. To contribute completing family and genera representation, DNA C-Values are here provided for 19 species from 16 eudicot families, including first values for 6 families, 14 genera and 17 species. The sample of species studied is very diverse, including herbs, weeds, vines, shrubs and trees. Data are discussed regarding previous genome size estimates of closely related species or genera, if any, their chromosome number, growth form or invasive behaviour. The present research contributes approximately 1.5% new values for previously unreported angiosperm families, being the current coverage around 55% of angiosperm families, according to the Plant DNA C-Values Database.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Impact of controlled changes in grain size and pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of "proxies" of saturated alluvial sediments

Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel, which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. The results of this study underline the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raise some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Tiller size/density compensation in grazed Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards

The objective of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of the tiller size/density compensation mechanism in Tifton 85 bermudagrass swards grazed by sheep under continuous stocking. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (5, 10, 15, and 20 cm of sward surface height), maintained by sheep grazing. The experimental design was a complete randomized block with four replicates. Pasture responses evaluated include: tiller population density, tiller mass, leaf mass and leaf area per tiller, and herbage mass. Tiller volume, leaf area index, tiller leaf/stem ratio, and tiller leaf area/volume ratio were calculated and simple regression analyses between tiller population density and tiller mass were performed. Measurements were made in December, 1998, and January, April, and July, 1999. The swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism in which high tiller population densities were associated with small tillers and vice-versa, except in July, 1999. Regression analyses revealed that linear coefficients were steeper than the theoretical expectation of -3/2. Increments in herbage mass were attributable to increases in tiller mass in December and January. Leaf area/volume ratio values of Tifton 85 tillers were much lower than those commonly found for temperate grass species.

Sample size for measurement of root traits on common bean by image analysis

Evaluation of root traits may be facilitated if they are assessed on samples of the root system. The objective of this work was to determine the sample size of the root system in order to estimate root traits of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cultivars by digital image analysis. One plant was grown per pot and harvested at pod setting, with 64 and 16 pots corresponding to two and four cultivars in the first and second experiments, respectively. Root samples were scanned up to the completeness of the root system and the root area and length were estimated. Scanning a root sample demanded 21 minutes, and scanning the entire root system demanded 4 hours and 53 minutes. In the first experiment, root area and length estimated with two samples showed, respectively, a correlation of 0.977 and 0.860, with these traits measured in the entire root. In the second experiment, the correlation was 0.889 and 0.915. The increase in the correlation with more than two samples was negligible. The two samples corresponded to 13.4% and 16.9% of total root mass (excluding taproot and nodules) in the first and second experiments. Taproot stands for a high proportion of root mass and must be deducted on root trait estimations. Samples with nearly 15% of total root mass produce reliable root trait estimates.

Allocation of above-ground growth in Pinus sylvestris - impacts of tree size and competition

Abstract

Community structure in mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems: size-based vs. taxon-based approaches

The main environmental variables determining the community structure and the functioning of Mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems are described. These ecosystems are characterized by the unpredictability of their water inputs and the high variability in their water level and physical and chemical composition. Variations in flooding, salinity, and water turnover are determinant in species composition and nutrient dynamics. Taxon-based and size-based approaches to the study of the community structure of aquatic organisms that colonise these ecosystems are also compared. The conventional taxonomic approach, based on the determination of species composition, has been used for the identification of patterns in species richness, distribution and temporal dynamics, and for ecological requirements of species and their potential use as ecological indicators. This taxonbased approach has been compared with a size-based approach, where individuals are classified by their size. Size-based approach gives complementary information about community structure and dynamics, especially when communities are dominated by a single species. The use of size diversity combined with species diversity is suggested for a more complete understanding of community structuring in this type of ecosystem. Detailed examples of two Mediterranean shallow lentic ecosystems, the salt marshes of the Empordà wetlands and the Espolla temporary karstic pond, which differ in hydrology and water origin, are used to discuss the suitability of these different approaches

Issue review : fiscal year 2011 Judicial Branch budget impact.

This issue review analyzes recent activity related to the Judicial Branch budget. The Judicial Branch budget is 3 percent of the total state general fund budget and consists of 95 percent personnel costs and 5 percent non-personnel costs. As of August 31, 2010, 29 clerks-of-court offices are operating on a part-time basis with reduced public hours. The remaining 70 offices are closed for two hours a day, two days a week. From February 2009 through June 2010, there were 15 court closure days.

Issue review : executive branch employees, January 2011 and August 2012.

This issue review examines the change in the number of executive branch employees, supervisors and payroll between January 2011 and August 2012. In recent years, a variety of factors have encouraged a reduction in the number of state employees, salary adjustment that pays for contract-related salary and benefits increases has not been funded, limited departments' ability to pay increasing personnel costs. Early retirement packages have been offered, encouraging higher-paid employees to retire. Beginning in January 2011, the Governor set a goal of reducing the cost of state government by 15 percent, which could impact the number of employees.

Audit report on the City of West Branch, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2014

Audit report on the City of West Branch, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2014

Plant Size and Frequency of Strike, December 1970

In Illinois and Iowa, the author finds that plants with approximately 750 employees have suffered the highest strike-frequency rate. Why at this size? Among other explanations, it is posited that in significantly smaller plants labor-management relations can be personalized-and tensions reduced-while in appreciably larger plants sophistication in dealing with disputes may, of necessity, have been developed. C. Fred Eisele is a graduate teaching assistant at the University of Iowa's College of Business Administration.

Surfactant palmitoylmyristoylphosphatidylcholine is a marker for alveolar size during disease.

Two common lung-related complications in the neonate are respiratory distress syndrome, which is associated with a failure to generate low surface tension at the air-liquid interface because of pulmonary surfactant insufficiency, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), a chronic lung injury with reduced alveolarization. Surfactant phosphatidylcholine (PC) molecular species composition during alveolarization has not been examined. Mass spectrometry analysis of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of rodents and humans revealed significant changes in surfactant PC during alveolar development and BPD. In rats, total PC content rose during alveolarization, which was caused by an increase in palmitoylmyristoyl-PC (16:0/14:0PC) concentration. Furthermore, two animal models of BPD exhibited a specific reduction in 16:0/14:0PC content. In humans, 16:0/14:0PC content was specifically decreased in patients with BPD and emphysema compared with patients without alveolar pathology. Palmitoylmyristoyl-PC content increased with increasing intrinsic surfactant curvature, suggesting that it affects surfactant function in the septating lung. The changes in acyl composition of PC were attributed to type II cells producing an altered surfactant during alveolar development. These data are compatible with extracellular surfactant 16:0/14:0PC content being an indicator of alveolar architecture of the lung.

Microclimatic characterization and productivity of coffee plants grown under shade of pigeon pea in Southern Brazil

Recent studies on coffee (Coffea arabica L.) cultivation in agroforestry systems in Southern Brazil have shown the potential of partial shading to improve management of this crop. The objective of this work was to evaluate microclimatic conditions and their effects on coffee production of plants shaded with pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) in comparison to unshaded ones, from May 2001 to August 2002 in Londrina, State of Paraná, Brazil. The appraised microclimatic characteristics were: global radiation, photosynthetic and radiation balance; air, leaf and soil temperatures; and soil humidity. Shading caused significant reduction in incident global solar radiation, photosynthetically active radiation and net radiation, and attenuated maximum leaf, air and soil temperatures, during the day. Shade also reduced the rate of cooling of night air and leaf temperatures, especially during nights with radiative frost. Soil moisture at 0-10 cm depth was higher under shade. The shaded coffee plants produced larger cherries due to slower maturation, resulting in larger bean size. Nevertheless, plants under shade emitted less plagiotropic branches, with smaller number of nodes per branch, and fewer nodes with fruits, resulting in a large reduction in coffee production. These results show the need to find an optimal tree density and management that do not compromise coffee production and protect against extreme temperatures.