How valuable are multiple treatment comparison methods in evidence-based health-care evaluation?

Objectives To compare the use of pair-wise meta-analysis methods to multiple treatment comparison (MTC) methods for evidence-based health-care evaluation to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative health-care interventions based on the available evidence. Methods Pair-wise meta-analysis and more complex evidence syntheses, incorporating an MTC component, are applied to three examples: 1) clinical effectiveness of interventions for preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation; 2) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with coronary artery disease; and 3) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using neuraminidase inhibitors in the treatment of influenza. We compare the two synthesis approaches with respect to the assumptions made, empirical estimates produced, and conclusions drawn. Results The difference between point estimates of effectiveness produced by the pair-wise and MTC approaches was generally unpredictable—sometimes agreeing closely whereas in other instances differing considerably. In all three examples, the MTC approach allowed the inclusion of randomized controlled trial evidence ignored in the pair-wise meta-analysis approach. This generally increased the precision of the effectiveness estimates from the MTC model. Conclusions The MTC approach to synthesis allows the evidence base on clinical effectiveness to be treated as a coherent whole, include more data, and sometimes relax the assumptions made in the pair-wise approaches. However, MTC models are necessarily more complex than those developed for pair-wise meta-analysis and thus could be seen as less transparent. Therefore, it is important that model details and the assumptions made are carefully reported alongside the results.

Meta-analysis of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in patients with depression and coronary heart disease

The occurrence of depression in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) substantially increases the likelihood of a poorer cardiovascular prognosis. Although antidepressants are generally effective in decreasing depression, their use in patients with CHD is controversial. We carried out a meta-analysis to evaluate the health effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) versus placebo or no antidepressants in patients with CHD and depression. Observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trial Register and other trial registries, and references of relevant articles. Primary outcomes were readmission for CHD (including myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and stroke) and all-cause mortality; the secondary outcome was severity of depression symptoms. Seven articles on 6 RCTs involving 2,461 participants were included. One study incorrectly randomized participants, and another was a reanalysis of RCT data. These were considered observational and analyzed separately. When only properly randomized trials were considered (n = 734 patients), patients on SSRIs showed no significant differences in mortality (risk ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.08 to 2.01) or CHD readmission rates (0.74, 0.44 to 1.23) compared to controls. Conversely, when all studies were included, SSRI use was associated with a significant decrease in CHD readmission (0.63, 0.46 to 0.86) and mortality rates (0.56, 0.35 to 0.88). A significantly greater improvement in depression symptoms was always apparent in patients on SSRIs with all selected indicators. In conclusion, in patients with CHD and depression, SSRI medication decreases depression symptoms and may improve CHD prognosis.

Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing TAVI: A Multistate Analysis

Patients with severe aortic stenosis at increased surgical risk continue to experience compromised long-term survival despite successful transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We used time-related pathways in a multistate analysis to identify predictors of adverse long-term outcome in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

Is the allegiance effect an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences between treatments? a meta-analysis

Many meta-analyses of comparative outcome studies found a substantial association of researcher allegiance (RA) and relative treatment effects. Therefore, RA is regarded as a biasing factor in comparative outcome research (RA bias hypothesis). However, the RA bias hypothesis has been criticized as causality might be reversed. That is, RA might be a reflection of true efficacy differences between treatments (true efficacy hypothesis). Consequently, the RA-outcome association would not be indicative of bias but an epiphenomenon of true efficacy differences. This meta-analysis tested the validity of the true efficacy hypothesis. This was done by controlling the RA-outcome association for true efficacy differences by restricting analysis to direct comparisons of treatments with equivalent efficacy. We included direct comparisons of different versions of trauma-focused therapy (TFT) in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). RA was measured from the research reports. Relative effect sizes for symptoms of PTSD were calculated. Random effects meta-regression was conducted. Twenty-nine comparisons of TFTs from 20 studies were identified. Initial heterogeneity among relative effect sizes was low. RA was a significant predictor of outcome and explained 12% of the variance in outcomes. The true efficacy hypothesis predicted the RA-outcome association to be zero; however, a substantial association was found. Thus, this study does not support the true efficacy hypothesis. Given findings from psychotherapy research and other fields that support a biasing influence of researcher preferences, RA should be regarded as a causal factor and conceptualized as a threat to the validity of conclusions from comparative outcome studies.

A MICROFLUIDIC METHOD TO MEASURE DIFFUSION IN HYDROGELS

A novel microfluidic method is proposed for studying diffusion of small molecules in a hydrogel. Microfluidic devices were prepared with semi-permeable microchannels defined by crosslinked poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG). Uptake of dye molecules from aqueous solutions flowing through the microchannels was observedoptically and diffusion of the dye into the hydrogel was quantified. To complement the diffusion measurements from the microfluidic studies, nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR) characterization of the diffusion of dye in the PEG hydrogels was performed. The diffusion of small molecules in a hydrogel is relevant to applications such asdrug delivery and modeling transport for tissue-engineering applications. The diffusion of small molecules in a hydrogel is dependent on the extent of crosslinking within the gel, gel structure, and interactions between the diffusive species and the hydrogel network. These effects were studied in a model environment (semi-infinite slab) at the hydrogelfluid boundary in a microfluidic device. The microfluidic devices containing PEG microchannels were fabricated using photolithography. The unsteady diffusion of small molecules (dyes) within the microfluidic device was monitored and recorded using a digital microscope. The information was analyzed with techniques drawn from digital microscopy and image analysis to obtain concentration profiles with time. Using a diffusion model to fit this concentration vs. position data, a diffusion coefficient was obtained. This diffusion coefficient was compared to those from complementary NMR analysis. A pulsed field gradient (PFG) method was used to investigate and quantify small molecule diffusion in gradient (PFG) method was used to investigate and quantify small molecule diffusion in hydrogels. There is good agreement between the diffusion coefficients obtained from the microfluidic methods and those found from the NMR studies. The microfluidic approachused in this research enables the study of diffusion at length scales that approach those of vasculature, facilitating models for studying drug elution from hydrogels in blood-contacting applications.

Nonlethal Screening of Bat-Wing Skin with the Use of Ultraviolet Fluorescence to Detect Lesions Indicative of White-Nose Syndrome

Definitive diagnosis of the bat disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) requires histologic analysis to identify the cutaneous erosions caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus [formerly Geomyces] destructans (Pd). Gross visual inspection does not distinguish bats with or without WNS, and no nonlethal, on-site, preliminary screening methods are available for WNS in bats. We demonstrate that long-wave ultraviolet (UV) light (wavelength 366-385 nm) elicits a distinct orange yellow fluorescence in bat-wing membranes (skin) that corresponds directly with the fungal cupping erosions in histologic sections of skin that are the current gold standard for diagnosis of WNS. Between March 2009 and April 2012, wing membranes from 168 North American bat carcasses submitted to the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center were examined with the use of both UV light and histology. Comparison of these techniques showed that 98.8% of the bats with foci of orange yellow wing fluorescence (n=80) were WNS-positive based on histologic diagnosis; bat wings that did not fluoresce under UV light (n=88) were all histologically negative for WNS lesions. Punch biopsy samples as small as 3 mm taken from areas of wing with UV fluorescence were effective for identifying lesions diagnostic for WNS by histopathology. In a nonlethal biopsy-based study of 62 bats sampled (4-mm diameter) in hibernacula of the Czech Republic during 2012, 95.5% of fluorescent (n=22) and 100% of nonfluorescent (n=40) wing samples were confirmed by histopathology to be WNS positive and negative, respectively. This evidence supports use of long-wave UV light as a nonlethal and field-applicable method to screen bats for lesions indicative of WNS. Further, UV fluorescence can be used to guide targeted, nonlethal biopsy sampling for follow-up molecular testing, fungal culture analysis, and histologic confirmation of WNS.

Extensions to Gene Set Enrichment

Motivation: Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) has been developed recently to capture moderate but coordinated changes in the expression of sets of functionally related genes. We propose number of extensions to GSEA, which uses different statistics to describe the association between genes and phenotype of interest. We make use of dimension reduction procedures, such as principle component analysis to identify gene sets containing coordinated genes. We also address the problem of overlapping among gene sets in this paper. Results: We applied our methods to the data come from a clinical trial in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) [1]. We identified interesting gene sets using different statistics. We find that gender may have effects on the gene expression in addition to the phenotype effects. Investigating overlap among interesting gene sets indicate that overlapping could alter the interpretation of the significant results.

Labeling the human skeleton with 41Ca to assess changes in bone calcium metabolism

Bone research is limited by the methods available for detecting changes in bone metabolism. While dual X-ray absorptiometry is rather insensitive, biochemical markers are subject to significant intra-individual variation. In the study presented here, we evaluated the isotopic labeling of bone using 41Ca, a long-lived radiotracer, as an alternative approach. After successful labeling of the skeleton, changes in the systematics of urinary 41Ca excretion are expected to directly reflect changes in bone Ca metabolism. A minute amount of 41Ca (100 nCi) was administered orally to 22 postmenopausal women. Kinetics of tracer excretion were assessed by monitoring changes in urinary 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios up to 700 days post-dosing using accelerator mass spectrometry and resonance ionization mass spectrometry. Isotopic labeling of the skeleton was evaluated by two different approaches: (i) urinary 41Ca data were fitted to an established function consisting of an exponential term and a power law term for each individual; (ii) 41Ca data were analyzed by population pharmacokinetic (NONMEM) analysis to identify a compartmental model that describes urinary 41Ca tracer kinetics. A linear three-compartment model with a central compartment and two sequential peripheral compartments was found to best fit the 41Ca data. Fits based on the use of the combined exponential/power law function describing urinary tracer excretion showed substantially higher deviations between predicted and measured values than fits based on the compartmental modeling approach. By establishing the urinary 41Ca excretion pattern using data points up to day 500 and extrapolating these curves up to day 700, it was found that the calculated 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios in urine were significantly lower than the observed 41Ca/40Ca isotope ratios for both techniques. Compartmental analysis can overcome this limitation. By identifying relative changes in transfer rates between compartments in response to an intervention, inaccuracies in the underlying model cancel out. Changes in tracer distribution between compartments were modeled based on identified kinetic parameters. While changes in bone formation and resorption can, in principle, be assessed by monitoring urinary 41Ca excretion over the first few weeks post-dosing, assessment of an intervention effect is more reliable approximately 150 days post-dosing when excreted tracer originates mainly from bone.

ON THE MERITS OF VOXEL-BASED MORPHOMETRIC PATH-ANALYSIS FOR INVESTIGATING VOLUMETRIC MEDIATION OF A TOXICANT'S INFLUENCE ON COGNITIVE FUNCTION

We previously showed that lifetime cumulative lead dose, measured as lead concentration in the tibia bone by X-ray fluorescence, was associated with persistent and progressive declines in cognitive function and with decreases in MRI-based brain volumes in former lead workers. Moreover, larger region-specific brain volumes were associated with better cognitive function. These findings motivated us to explore a novel application of path analysis to evaluate effect mediation. Voxel-wise path analysis, at face value, represents the natural evolution of voxel-based morphometry methods to answer questions of mediation. Application of these methods to the former lead worker data demonstrated potential limitations in this approach where there was a tendency for results to be strongly biased towards the null hypothesis (lack of mediation). Moreover, a complimentary analysis using anatomically-derived regions of interest volumes yielded opposing results, suggesting evidence of mediation. Specifically, in the ROI-based approach, there was evidence that the association of tibia lead with function in three cognitive domains was mediated through the volumes of total brain, frontal gray matter, and/or possibly cingulate. A simulation study was conducted to investigate whether the voxel-wise results arose from an absence of localized mediation, or more subtle defects in the methodology. The simulation results showed the same null bias evidenced as seen in the lead workers data. Both the lead worker data results and the simulation study suggest that a null-bias in voxel-wise path analysis limits its inferential utility for producing confirmatory results.

Linkage mapping of ovine microphthalmia to chromosome 23, the sheep orthologue of human chromosome 18

PURPOSE: To characterize the phenotype and map the locus responsible for autosomal recessive inherited ovine microphthalmia (OMO) in sheep. METHODS: Microphthalmia-affected lambs and their available relatives were collected in a field, and experimental matings were performed to obtain affected and normal lambs for detailed necropsy and histologic examinations. The matings resulted in 18 sheep families with 48 cases of microphthalmia. A comparative candidate gene approach was used to map the disease locus within the sheep genome. Initially, 27 loci responsible for the microphthalmia-anophthalmia phenotypes in humans or mice were selected to test for comparative linkage. Fifty flanking markers that were predicted from comparative genomic analysis to be closely linked to these genes were tested for linkage to the disease locus. After observation of statistical evidence for linkage, a confirmatory fine mapping strategy was applied by further genotyping of 43 microsatellites. RESULTS: The clinical and pathologic examinations showed slightly variable expressivity of isolated bilateral microphthalmia. The anterior eye chamber was small or absent, and a white mass admixed with cystic spaces extended from the papilla to the anterior eye chamber, while no recognizable vitreous body or lens was found within the affected eyes. Significant linkage to a single candidate region was identified at sheep chromosome 23. Fine mapping and haplotype analysis assigned the candidate region to a critical interval of 12.4 cM. This ovine chromosome segment encompasses an ancestral chromosomal breakpoint corresponding to two orthologue segments of human chromosomes 18, short and long arms. For the examined animals, we excluded the complete coding region and adjacent intronic regions of ovine TGIF1 to harbor disease-causing mutations. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first genetic localization for hereditary ovine isolated microphthalmia. It seems unlikely that a mutation in the TGIF1 gene is responsible for this disorder. The studied sheep represent a valuable large animal model for similar human ocular phenotypes.

Body-mass index and incidence of cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

BACKGROUND: Excess bodyweight, expressed as increased body-mass index (BMI), is associated with the risk of some common adult cancers. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the strength of associations between BMI and different sites of cancer and to investigate differences in these associations between sex and ethnic groups. METHODS: We did electronic searches on Medline and Embase (1966 to November 2007), and searched reports to identify prospective studies of incident cases of 20 cancer types. We did random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of study-specific incremental estimates to determine the risk of cancer associated with a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. FINDINGS: We analysed 221 datasets (141 articles), including 282,137 incident cases. In men, a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was strongly associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (RR 1.52, p<0.0001) and with thyroid (1.33, p=0.02), colon (1.24, p<0.0001), and renal (1.24, p <0.0001) cancers. In women, we recorded strong associations between a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI and endometrial (1.59, p<0.0001), gallbladder (1.59, p=0.04), oesophageal adenocarcinoma (1.51, p<0.0001), and renal (1.34, p<0.0001) cancers. We noted weaker positive associations (RR <1.20) between increased BMI and rectal cancer and malignant melanoma in men; postmenopausal breast, pancreatic, thyroid, and colon cancers in women; and leukaemia, multiple myeloma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in both sexes. Associations were stronger in men than in women for colon (p<0.0001) cancer. Associations were generally similar in studies from North America, Europe and Australia, and the Asia-Pacific region, but we recorded stronger associations in Asia-Pacific populations between increased BMI and premenopausal (p=0.009) and postmenopausal (p=0.06) breast cancers. INTERPRETATION: Increased BMI is associated with increased risk of common and less common malignancies. For some cancer types, associations differ between sexes and populations of different ethnic origins. These epidemiological observations should inform the exploration of biological mechanisms that link obesity with cancer.

Drug eluting and bare metal stents in people with and without diabetes: collaborative network meta-analysis

Objective To compare the effectiveness and safety of three types of stents (sirolimus eluting, paclitaxel eluting, and bare metal) in people with and without diabetes mellitus. Design Collaborative network meta-analysis. Data sources Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), relevant websites, reference lists, conference abstracts, reviews, book chapters, and proceedings of advisory panels for the US Food and Drug Administration. Manufacturers and trialists provided additional data. Review methods Network meta-analysis with a mixed treatment comparison method to combine direct within trial comparisons between stents with indirect evidence from other trials while maintaining randomisation. Overall mortality was the primary safety end point, target lesion revascularisation the effectiveness end point. Results 35 trials in 3852 people with diabetes and 10 947 people without diabetes contributed to the analyses. Inconsistency of the network was substantial for overall mortality in people with diabetes and seemed to be related to the duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (P value for interaction 0.02). Restricting the analysis to trials with a duration of dual antiplatelet therapy of six months or more, inconsistency was reduced considerably and hazard ratios for overall mortality were near one for all comparisons in people with diabetes: sirolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents 0.88 (95% credibility interval 0.55 to 1.30), paclitaxel eluting stents compared with bare metal stents 0.91 (0.60 to 1.38), and sirolimus eluting stents compared with paclitaxel eluting stents 0.95 (0.63 to 1.43). In people without diabetes, hazard ratios were unaffected by the restriction. Both drug eluting stents were associated with a decrease in revascularisation rates compared with bare metal stents in people both with and without diabetes. Conclusion In trials that specified a duration of dual antiplatelet therapy of six months or more after stent implantation, drug eluting stents seemed safe and effective in people both with and without diabetes.

Pulse contour analysis: a valid assessment of central arterial stiffness in children?

In adults the contour analysis of peripheral pressure waves in the upper limb reflects central aortic stiffness. Here, we wanted to demonstrate the appropriateness of pulse contour analysis to assess large artery stiffness in children. Digital volume pulse analysis, with the computation of the stiffness index and pulse wave velocity between carotid and femoral artery, were simultaneously determined in 79 healthy children between 8 years and 15 years (mean age 11.4 years, 32 girls). The stiffness index of 42 healthy adults (mean age 45.6 years, 26 women) served as control. Pulse wave velocity between carotid and femoral artery was directly correlated with systolic pressure and mean blood pressure, as well as with pulse pressure. The results from the stiffness index of children revealed the expected values extrapolated from the linear regression of adulthood stiffness index vs. age. Childhood stiffness index positively correlated with pulse wave velocity (r(2) = 0.07, P = 0.02) but not with blood pressure parameters. The exclusion of individuals with an increased vascular tone, as indicated by a reflexion index > 90%, improved the correlation between stiffness index and pulse wave velocity (r(2) = 0.13, P = 0.001). Our data indicate that digital volume pulse-based analysis has limitations if compared with pulse wave velocity to measure arterial stiffness, mostly in patients with a high vascular tone.

Comparison of modal analysis results of laser vibrometry and nearfield acoustical holography measurements of an aluminum plate

Noise and vibration has long been sought to be reduced in major industries: automotive, aerospace and marine to name a few. Products must be tested and pass certain levels of federally regulated standards before entering the market. Vibration measurements are commonly acquired using accelerometers; however limitations of this method create a need for alternative solutions. Two methods for non-contact vibration measurements are compared: Laser Vibrometry, which directly measures the surface velocity of the aluminum plate, and Nearfield Acoustic Holography (NAH), which measures sound pressure in the nearfield, and using Green’s Functions, reconstructs the surface velocity at the plate. The surface velocity from each method is then used in modal analysis to determine the comparability of frequency, damping and mode shapes. Frequency and mode shapes are also compared to an FEA model. Laser Vibrometry is a proven, direct method for determining surface velocity and subsequently calculating modal analysis results. NAH is an effective method in locating noise sources, especially those that are not well separated spatially. Little work has been done in incorporating NAH into modal analysis.

Fat implant is superior to muscle implant in vestibular schwannoma surgery for the prevention of cerebrospinal fluid fistulae

OBJECTIVE: Meticulous sealing of opened air cells in the petrous bone is necessary for the prevention of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) fistulae after vestibular schwannoma surgery. We performed a retrospective analysis to determine whether muscle or fat tissue is superior for this purpose. METHODS: Between January 2001 and December 2006, 420 patients underwent retrosigmoidal microsurgical removal by a standardized procedure. The opened air cells at the inner auditory canal and the mastoid bone were sealed with muscle in 283 patients and with fat tissue in 137 patients. Analysis was performed regarding the incidence of postoperative CSF fistulae and correlation with the patient's sex and tumor grade. RESULTS: The rate of postoperative CSF leak after application of fat tissue was lower (2.2%) than after use of muscle (5.7%). Women had less postoperative CSF leakage (3.4%) than men (5.6%). There was an inverse correlation with tumor grade. Patients with smaller tumors seemed to have a higher rate of CSF leakage than those with large tumors without hydrocephalus. Only large tumors with severe dislocation of the brainstem causing hydrocephalus showed a higher incidence of CSF leaks. CONCLUSION: Fat implantation is superior to muscle implantation for the prevention of CSF leakage after vestibular schwannoma surgery and should, therefore, be used for the sealing of opened air cells in cranial base surgery.