Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Current status of pharmacogenomics testing for anti-tumor drug therapies : approaches to non-melanoma skin cancer

Skin cancer is one of the most commonly occurring cancer types, with substantial social, physical, and financial burdens on both individuals and societies. Although the role of UV light in initiating skin cancer development has been well characterized, genetic studies continue to show that predisposing factors can influence an individual's susceptibility to skin cancer and response to treatment. In the future, it is hoped that genetic profiles, comprising a number of genetic markers collectively involved in skin cancer susceptibility and response to treatment or prognosis, will aid in more accurately informing practitioners' choices of treatment. Individualized treatment based on these profiles has the potential to increase the efficacy of treatments, saving both time and money for the patient by avoiding the need for extensive or repeated treatment. Increased treatment responses may in turn prevent recurrence of skin cancers, reducing the burden of this disease on society. Currently existing pharmacogenomic tests, such as those that assess variation in the metabolism of the anticancer drug fluorouracil, have the potential to reduce the toxic effects of anti-tumor drugs used in the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) by determining individualized appropriate dosage. If the savings generated by reducing adverse events negate the costs of developing these tests, pharmacogenomic testing may increasingly inform personalized NMSC treatment.

Fault detection in wind turbine : a systematic literature review

Wind power has become one of the popular renewable resources all over the world and is anticipated to occupy 12% of the total global electricity generation capacity by 2020. For the harsh environment that the wind turbine operates, fault diagnostic and condition monitoring are important for wind turbine safety and reliability. This paper employs a systematic literature review to report the most recent promotions in the wind turbine fault diagnostic, from 2005 to 2012. The frequent faults and failures in wind turbines are considered and different techniques which have been used by researchers are introduced, classified and discussed.

Testing the psychometric properties of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure using Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis in an Australian registered nurse population

A cross-sectional survey was conducted, and the construct validity and reliability of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure in an Australian sample of registered nurses were examined. Nurses were randomly selected from the database of an Australian nursing organization. The original 33 items of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure were utilized to inform the psychometric properties using confirmatory factor analysis. The Cronbach's alpha was 0.938 for the total scale and ranged 0.657–0.887 for the subscales. A five-factor structure of the measure was confirmed, χ2 = 944.622, (P < 0.01), χ2/d.f. ratio = 2.845, Tucker Lewis Index 0.929, Root Mean Square Error = 0.061 and Comparative Fit Index = 0.906. The selected 28 items of the measure proved reliable and valid in measuring effects of the practice environment upon Australian nurses. The implications are that regular measurement of the practice environment using these 28 items might assist in the development of strategies which might improve job satisfaction and retention of registered nurses in Australia.

The "caring experience": testing the psychometric properties of the Caring Efficacy Scale

The purpose of the study was to undertake rigorous psychometric testing of the Caring Efficacy Scale in a sample of Registered Nurses. A cross-sectional survey of 2000 registered nurses was undertaken. The Caring Efficacy Scale was utilised to inform the psychometric properties of the selected items of the Caring Efficacy Scale. Cronbach’s Alpha identified reliability of the data. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were undertaken to validate the factors. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the development of two factors; Confidence to Care and Doubts and Concerns. The Caring Efficacy Scale has undergone rigorous psychometric testing, affording evidence of internal consistency and goodness-of-fit indices within satisfactory ranges. The Caring Efficacy Scale is valid for use in an Australian population of registered nurses. The scale can be used as a subscale or total score reflective of self-efficacy in nursing. This scale may assist nursing educators to predict levels of caring efficacy.

Interactions between cars and motorcycles testing underlying concepts through integration of on-road and simulator studies

We conducted on-road and simulator studies to explore the mechanisms underpinning driver-rider crashes. In Study 1 the verbal protocols of 40 drivers and riders were assessed at intersections as part of a 15km on-road route in Melbourne. Network analysis of the verbal transcripts highlighted key differences in the situation awareness of drivers and riders at intersections. In a further study using a driving simulator we examined in car drivers the influence of acute exposure to motorcyclists. In a 15 min simulated drive, 40 drivers saw either no motorcycles or a high number of motorcycles in the surrounding traffic. In a subsequent 45-60 min drive, drivers were asked to detect motorcycles in traffic. The proportion of motorcycles was manipulated so that there was either a high (120) or low (6) number of motorcycles during the drive. Those drivers exposed to a high number of motorcycles were significantly faster at detecting motorcycles. Fundamentally, the incompatible situation awareness at intersections by drivers and riders underpins the conflicts. Study 2 offers some suggestion for a countermeasure here, although more research around schema and exposure training to support safer interactions is needed.

Library Research Support in developing, testing and promoting an open cyberinfrastructure

QUT Library continues to rethink research support with eResearch as a primary driver. The support to the development of the Lens, an open global cyberinfrastructure, has been especially important in the light of technology transfer promotion, and partly in the response to researchers’ needs in following the innovation landscapes not only within the scientific but also patent literature. The Lens http://www.lens.org/lens/ project makes innovation more efficient, fair, transparent and inclusive. It is a joint effort between Cambia http://www.cambia.org.au and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The Lens serves more than 84 million patent documents in the world as open, annotatable digital public goods that are integrated with scholarly and technical literature along with regulatory and business data. Users can link from search results to visualization and document clusters; from a patent document description to its full-text; from there, if applicable, the sequence data can also be found. Figure 1 shows a BLAST Alignment (DNA) using the Lens. A unique feature of the Lens is the ability to embed search and BLAST results into blogs and websites, and provide real-time updates to them. PatSeq Explorer http://www.lens.org/lens/bio/patseqexplorer allows users to navigate patent sequences that map onto the human genome and in the future, many other genomes. PatSeq Explorer offers three level views for the sequence information and links each group of sequences at the chromosomal level to their corresponding patent documents in the Lens. By integrating sequence and patent search and document clustering capabilities, users can now understand the big and small details on the true extent and scope of genetic sequence patents. QUT Library supported Cambia in developing, testing and promoting the Lens. This poster demonstrates QUT Library’s provision of best practice and holistic research support to a research group and how QUT Librarians have acquired new capabilities to meet the needs of the researchers beyond traditional research support practices.

Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia : Examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates

In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009. The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data. The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15. Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations.

The impact of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on the cost price of wind power electricity : a China study

As a renewable energy source, wind power is playing an increasingly important role in China’s electricity supply. Meanwhile, China is also the world’s largest market for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) wind power projects. Based on the data of 27 wind power projects of Inner Mongolia registered with the Executive Board of the United Nations (EB) in 2010, this paper constructs a financial model of Net Present Value (NPV) to analyze the cost of wind power electricity. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to examine the impact of different variables with and without Certified Emission Reduction (CER) income brought about by the CDM. It is concluded that the CDM, along with static investment and annual wind electricity production, is one of the most significant factors in promoting the development of wind power in China. Additionally, wind power is envisaged as a practical proposition for competing with thermal power if the appropriate actions identified in the paper are made.

Effect of overload cycles on thin steel roof claddings during cyclonic winds

During an investigation on thin steel roof claddings under simulated cyclonic wind loading, it was found that trapezoidal roof claddings behaved quite differently to corrugated (arc and tangent type) roof claddings due to the presence of overload cycles. The overload cycles caused a reduction in fatigue life for corrugated roofing whereas the reverse occurred for trapezoidal roofing. This contrasting behavior of the two crest-fixed roof claddings was investigated using small scale roofing models instead of the commonly used large scale two-span roof claddings. It was found that overload cycles formed a weaker locally dimpled mechanism around the fastener holes of corrugated roofing and thus accelerated the fatigue-caused pull-through failure. In contrast, a stronger deformed shape was formed in trapezoidal roofing which delayed the pull-through failure. Both laboratory testing and finite element analysis of small scale models were used to study the contrasting behavior of roof claddings.

Wind-resistant low-rise buildings in the tropics

High-wind events such as storms and hurricanes cause severe damage to low-rise building (housing, schools, and industrial, commercial, and farm buildings). Roof claddings often suffer the worst, which then leads to accelerated damage to the whole building. Australia leads the way in solving this international problem through extensive research and development work, and has adequate documents in place. This paper first illustrates briefly the nature of high-wind events and then the commonly observed damage to buildings. Australian research work and design practice are then described, based on which suitable design recommendations for wind-resistant buildings are presented.