908 resultados para Willingness to pay for risk reduction


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Purpose: to assess among current smokers in Switzerland the willingness to quit and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking. Methods: cross-sectional study including 1265 current smokers (607 women and 658 men). Difficulty quitting smoking and the preferred methods to help quitting smoking were assessed by questionnaire. Results: 89% of women and 84% of men reported being "very difficult" or "difficult" to quit smoking. Almost three quarters of smokers (73% of women and 70% of men) reported some willingness to quit smoking, but less than 25% of them wanted to do so within the next 30 days, and only 64% within the next 6 months. Willingness to quit was stronger among younger smokers while no differences were found for gender, physical activity or education al Javel. The preferred methods to help quitting smoking were personalized counselling by a doctor (51.4%), acupuncture (35.9%); nicotine replacement therapy (37.6%); hypnosis (28.8%); information flyers (24.9%); autogenic training (15.3%); bupropion (15.2%); personalized counselling by a non-doctor (14.7%) and group interventions (13.2%). Acupuncture and hypnosis were more favoured by women, and autogenic training by younger smokers. Still, a sizable fraction (between 19 and 51%) of smokers did not know some of the methods to help quitting smoking. Conclusion: although more than two thirds of Swiss smokers want to quit, only a small fraction wishes to do so in the short term. Setter information regarding the different methods to help quitting is also necessary.

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BACKGROUND Breast cancer survivors suffer physical impairment after oncology treatment. This impairment reduces quality of life (QoL) and increase the prevalence of handicaps associated to unhealthy lifestyle (for example, decreased aerobic capacity and strength, weight gain, and fatigue). Recent work has shown that exercise adapted to individual characteristics of patients is related to improved overall and disease-free survival. Nowadays, technological support using telerehabilitation systems is a promising strategy with great advantage of a quick and efficient contact with the health professional. It is not known the role of telerehabilitation through therapeutic exercise as a support tool to implement an active lifestyle which has been shown as an effective resource to improve fitness and reduce musculoskeletal disorders of these women. METHODS / DESIGN This study will use a two-arm, assessor blinded, parallel randomized controlled trial design. People will be eligible if: their diagnosis is of stages I, II, or IIIA breast cancer; they are without chronic disease or orthopedic issues that would interfere with ability to participate in a physical activity program; they had access to the Internet and basic knowledge of computer use or living with a relative who has this knowledge; they had completed adjuvant therapy except for hormone therapy and not have a history of cancer recurrence; and they have an interest in improving lifestyle. Participants will be randomized into e-CUIDATE or usual care groups. E-CUIDATE give participants access to a range of contents: planning exercise arranged in series with breathing exercises, mobility, strength, and stretching. All of these exercises will be assigned to women in the telerehabilitation group according to perceived needs. The control group will be asked to maintain their usual routine. Study endpoints will be assessed after 8 weeks (immediate effects) and after 6 months. The primary outcome will be QoL measured by The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 version 3.0 and breast module called The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Breast Cancer-Specific Quality of Life questionnaire. The secondary outcomes: pain (algometry, Visual Analogue Scale, Brief Pain Inventory short form); body composition; physical measurement (abdominal test, handgrip strength, back muscle strength, and multiple sit-to-stand test); cardiorespiratory fitness (International Fitness Scale, 6-minute walk test, International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form); fatigue (Piper Fatigue Scale and Borg Fatigue Scale); anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale); cognitive function (Trail Making Test and Auditory Consonant Trigram); accelerometry; lymphedema; and anthropometric perimeters. DISCUSSION This study investigates the feasibility and effectiveness of a telerehabilitation system during adjuvant treatment of patients with breast cancer. If this treatment option is effective, telehealth systems could offer a choice of supportive care to cancer patients during the survivorship phase. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01801527.

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BACKGROUND: Fractures in men are a major health issue, and data on the antifracture efficacy of therapies for osteoporosis in men are limited. We studied the effect of zoledronic acid on fracture risk among men with osteoporosis. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned 1199 men with primary or hypogonadism-associated osteoporosis who were 50 to 85 years of age to receive an intravenous infusion of zoledronic acid (5 mg) or placebo at baseline and at 12 months. Participants received daily calcium and vitamin D supplementation. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with one or more new morphometric vertebral fractures over a period of 24 months. RESULTS: The rate of any new morphometric vertebral fracture was 1.6% in the zoledronic acid group and 4.9% in the placebo group over the 24-month period, representing a 67% risk reduction with zoledronic acid (relative risk, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.70; P=0.002). As compared with men who received placebo, men who received zoledronic acid had fewer moderate-to-severe vertebral fractures (P=0.03) and less height loss (P=0.002). Fewer participants who received zoledronic acid had clinical vertebral or nonvertebral fractures, although this difference did not reach significance because of the small number of fractures. Bone mineral density was higher and bone-turnover markers were lower in the men who received zoledronic acid (P<0.05 for both comparisons). Results were similar in men with low serum levels of total testosterone. The zoledronic acid and placebo groups did not differ significantly with respect to the incidence of death (2.6% and 2.9%, respectively) or serious adverse events (25.3% and 25.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Zoledronic acid treatment was associated with a significantly reduced risk of vertebral fracture among men with osteoporosis. (Funded by Novartis Pharma; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00439647.).

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BACKGROUND: Measuring syringe availability and coverage is essential in the assessment of HIV/AIDS risk reduction policies. Estimates of syringe availability and coverage were produced for the years 1996 and 2006, based on all relevant available national-level aggregated data from published sources. METHODS: We defined availability as the total monthly number of syringes provided by harm reduction system divided by the estimated number of injecting drug users (IDU), and defined coverage as the proportion of injections performed with a new syringe, at national level (total supply over total demand). Estimates of supply of syringes were derived from the national monitoring system, including needle and syringe programmes (NSP), pharmacies, and medically prescribed heroin programmes. Estimates of syringe demand were based on the number of injections performed by IDU derived from surveys of low threshold facilities for drug users (LTF) with NSP combined with the number of IDU. This number was estimated by two methods combining estimates of heroin users (multiple estimation method) and (a) the number of IDU in methadone treatment (MT) (non-injectors) or (b) the proportion of injectors amongst LTF attendees. Central estimates and ranges were obtained for availability and coverage. RESULTS: The estimated number of IDU decreased markedly according to both methods. The MT-based method (from 14,818 to 4809) showed a much greater decrease and smaller size of the IDU population compared to the LTF-based method (from 24,510 to 12,320). Availability and coverage estimates are higher with the MT-based method. For 1996, central estimates of syringe availability were 30.5 and 18.4 per IDU per month; for 2006, they were 76.5 and 29.9. There were 4 central estimates of coverage. For 1996 they ranged from 24.3% to 43.3%, and for 2006, from 50.5% to 134.3%. CONCLUSION: Although 2006 estimates overlap 1996 estimates, the results suggest a shift to improved syringe availability and coverage over time.

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BACKGROUND: Fatalities following contrast medium exposure are extremely rare in clinical routine, though they may occur as an exception. Some may fall under the purview of the inquiring authorities and forensic pathologists due to their in-hospital occurrence. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors for anaphylaxis due to contrast medium administration that can be identified in fatal cases. METHODS: Fatalities occurred during the course of clinical investigations with contrast media described in the literature and fatal reactions to contrast agents that had undergone forensic investigations in our medicolegal center were reviewed with respect to patient characteristics, administered contrast medium, performed biochemical investigations and potential risk factors identified based on clinical history and medical records. RESULTS: Biochemical investigations into the fatal cases examined in our facility revealed increased mast cell tryptase, total IgE and activated mast cells in all subjects. Data obtained from the literature and our own investigations indicated that in only a minority of the fatal cases had there been previous exposure to contrast compounds, while most cases of severe anaphylaxis involved patients who apparently reacted on initial exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Most fatal cases failed to present any identifiable predisposing conditions out of those traditionally considered as risk factors for an anaphylactic reaction to contrast compounds in the medical histories of the patients. Comprehensive clinical histories and thorough reviews of medical data, along with exhaustive forensic investigations, provide information that is relevant in order to better appreciate the interwoven relationships linking all factors potentially involved in the pathogenesis of fatal anaphylaxis to contrast media. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

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Selenocysteine (Sec) is co-translationally inserted into selenoproteins in response to codon UGA with the help of the selenocysteine insertion sequence (SECIS) element. The number of selenoproteins in animals varies, with humans having 25 and mice having 24 selenoproteins. To date, however, only one selenoprotein, thioredoxin reductase, has been detected in Caenorhabditis elegans, and this enzyme contains only one Sec. Here, we characterize the selenoproteomes of C.elegans and Caenorhabditis briggsae with three independent algorithms, one searching for pairs of homologous nematode SECIS elements, another searching for Cys- or Sec-containing homologs of potential nematode selenoprotein genes and the third identifying Sec-containing homologs of annotated nematode proteins. These methods suggest that thioredoxin reductase is the only Sec-containing protein in the C.elegans and C.briggsae genomes. In contrast, we identified additional selenoproteins in other nematodes. Assuming that Sec insertion mechanisms are conserved between nematodes and other eukaryotes, the data suggest that nematode selenoproteomes were reduced during evolution, and that in an extreme reduction case Sec insertion systems probably decode only a single UGA codon in C.elegans and C.briggsae genomes. In addition, all detected genes had a rare form of SECIS element containing a guanosine in place of a conserved adenosine present in most other SECIS structures, suggesting that in organisms with small selenoproteomes SECIS elements may change rapidly.

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The West Liberty Foods turkey cooperative was formed in 1996 to purchase the assets and assume operations of Louis Rich Foods (an investor-owned processing rm), which, at the time, announced the imminent shutdown of its West Liberty, Iowa, processing facility. We study the creation and performance of this �new generation� cooperative using eld interviews with grower members and company management. We describe changes, before and after the buyout, in the contractual apparatus used for procuring live turkeys, and in the communication requirements, work expectations, and nancial positions of growers. During the private ownership period, most of the inputs (except labor and facilities) were provided by the rm; there was substantial supervision of the growers' actions; growers faced little price and production risk; and growers' equity was due largely to ownership of land and other farm assets. Our interviews reveal that, after cooperative formation, growers were exposed to considerable additional risk; monitoring of growers by the rm was less intensive; grower time and effort commitments to turkey production increased substantially; and a signicant fraction of rm (cooperative) equity came from growers' willingness to leverage their farm and personal assets (and hence indirectly their existing relationships with local lenders). We argue that some of these changes are consistent with a nancial contract where asset pledging and its corollary risk generate higher work effort by growers and a reduction in agency rents. These economies likely compensate for an organizational deadweight loss traditionally associated with cooperative governance.

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In Switzerland, the annual cost of damage by natural elements has been increasing for several years despite the introduction of protective measures. Mainly induced by material destruction building insurance companies have to pay the majority of this cost. In many European countries, governments and insurance companies consider prevention strategies to reduce vulnerability. In Switzerland, since 2004, the cost of damage due to natural hazards has surpassed the cost of damage due to fire; a traditional activity of the Cantonal Insurance company (EGA). Therefore, the strategy for efficient fire prevention incorporates a reduction of the vulnerability of buildings. The thesis seeks to illustrate the relevance of such an approach when applied to the damage caused by natural hazards. It examines the role of insurance place and its involvement in targeted prevention of natural disasters. Integrated risk management involves a faultless comprehension of all risk parameters The first part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of the key concepts that influence risk management, such as: hazard, vulnerability, exposure or damage. The literature on this subject, very prolific in recent years, was taken into account and put in perspective in the context of this study. Among the risk parameters, it is shown in the thesis that vulnerability is a factor that we can influence efficiently in order to limit the cost of damage to buildings. This is confirmed through the development of an analysis method. This method has led to the development of a tool to assess damage to buildings by flooding. The tool, designed for the property insurer or owner, proposes several steps, namely: - Vulnerability and damage potential assessment; - Proposals for remedial measures and risk reduction from an analysis of the costs of a potential flood; - Adaptation of a global strategy in high-risk areas based on the elements at risk. The final part of the thesis is devoted to the study of a hail event in order to provide a better understanding of damage to buildings. For this, two samples from the available claims data were selected and analysed in the study. The results allow the identification of new trends A second objective of the study was to develop a hail model based on the available data The model simulates a random distribution of intensities and coupled with a risk model, proposes a simulation of damage costs for the determined study area. Le coût annuel des dommages provoqués par les éléments naturels en Suisse est conséquent et sa tendance est en augmentation depuis plusieurs années, malgré la mise en place d'ouvrages de protection et la mise en oeuvre de moyens importants. Majoritairement induit par des dégâts matériels, le coût est supporté en partie par les assurances immobilières en ce qui concerne les dommages aux bâtiments. Dans de nombreux pays européens, les gouvernements et les compagnies d'assurance se sont mis à concevoir leur stratégie de prévention en termes de réduction de la vulnérabilité. Depuis 2004, en Suisse, ce coût a dépassé celui des dommages dus à l'incendie, activité traditionnelle des établissements cantonaux d'assurance (ECA). Ce fait, aux implications stratégiques nombreuses dans le domaine public de la gestion des risques, résulte en particulier d'une politique de prévention des incendies menée efficacement depuis plusieurs années, notamment par le biais de la diminution de la vulnérabilité des bâtiments. La thèse, par la mise en valeur de données actuarielles ainsi que par le développement d'outils d'analyse, cherche à illustrer la pertinence d'une telle approche appliquée aux dommages induits par les phénomènes naturels. Elle s'interroge sur la place de l'assurance et son implication dans une prévention ciblée des catastrophes naturelles. La gestion intégrale des risques passe par une juste maîtrise de ses paramètres et de leur compréhension. La première partie de la thèse est ainsi consacrée au développement théorique des concepts clés ayant une influence sur la gestion des risques, comme l'aléa, la vulnérabilité, l'exposition ou le dommage. La littérature à ce sujet, très prolifique ces dernières années, a été repnse et mise en perspective dans le contexte de l'étude, à savoir l'assurance immobilière. Parmi les paramètres du risque, il est démontré dans la thèse que la vulnérabilité est un facteur sur lequel il est possible d'influer de manière efficace dans le but de limiter les coûts des dommages aux bâtiments. Ce raisonnement est confirmé dans un premier temps dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une méthode d'analyse ayant débouché sur le développement d'un outil d'estimation des dommages aux bâtiments dus aux inondations. L'outil, destiné aux assurances immobilières, et le cas échéant aux propriétaires, offre plusieurs étapes, à savoir : - l'analyse de la vulnérabilité et le potentiel de dommages ; - des propositions de mesures de remédiation et de réduction du risque issues d'une analyse des coûts engendrés par une inondation potentielle; - l'adaptation d'une stratégie globale dans les zones à risque en fonction des éléments à risque. La dernière partie de la thèse est consacrée à l'étude d'un événement de grêle dans le but de fournir une meilleure compréhension des dommages aux bâtiments et de leur structure. Pour cela, deux échantillons ont été sélectionnés et analysés parmi les données de sinistres à disposition de l'étude. Les résultats obtenus, tant au niveau du portefeuille assuré que de l'analyse individuelle, permettent de dégager des tendances nouvelles. Un deuxième objectif de l'étude a consisté à élaborer une modélisation d'événements de grêle basée sur les données à disposition. Le modèle permet de simuler une distribution aléatoire des intensités et, couplé à un modèle d'estimation des risques, offre une simulation des coûts de dommages envisagés pour une zone d'étude déterminée. Les perspectives de ce travail permettent une meilleure focalisation du rôle de l'assurance et de ses besoins en matière de prévention.

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Overdiagnosis is the diagnosis of an abnormality that is not associated with a substantial health hazard and that patients have no benefit to be aware of. It is neither a misdiagnosis (diagnostic error), nor a false positive result (positive test in the absence of a real abnormality). It mainly results from screening, use of increasingly sensitive diagnostic tests, incidental findings on routine examinations, and widening diagnostic criteria to define a condition requiring an intervention. The blurring boundaries between risk and disease, physicians' fear of missing a diagnosis and patients' need for reassurance are further causes of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis often implies procedures to confirm or exclude the presence of the condition and is by definition associated with useless treatments and interventions, generating harm and costs without any benefit. Overdiagnosis also diverts healthcare professionals from caring about other health issues. Preventing overdiagnosis requires increasing awareness of healthcare professionals and patients about its occurrence, the avoidance of unnecessary and untargeted diagnostic tests, and the avoidance of screening without demonstrated benefits. Furthermore, accounting systematically for the harms and benefits of screening and diagnostic tests and determining risk factor thresholds based on the expected absolute risk reduction would also help prevent overdiagnosis.

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The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with the pattern of risky health behavior (PRHB) among adolescent students in Cartagena, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate PRHB in a random cluster sample of students from middle and high schools. The associations were adjusted by logistic regression. A total of 2,625 students participated in this research, with ages from 10 to 20 years, mean=13.8 years (SD=2.0), and 54.3% were women. A total of 332 students reported PRHB (12.7%, 95%CI 11.4–14.0). Age over 15 years (OR=2.19, 95%CI 1.72–2.79), not being heterosexual (OR=1.98, 95%CI 1.36-2.87), poor/mediocre academic performance (OR=1.87, 95%CI 1.47–2.38), family dysfunction (OR=1.78, 95%CI 1.40–2.28) and male gender (OR=1.58, 95%CI 1.24–2.01) were associated with PRHB. One in every eight students presented a PRHB. It is important to pay greater attention to students who are over 15 years of age, male, not heterosexual, with a poor/mediocre academic performance and a dysfunctional family.

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Background: Gout patients initiating urate lowering therapy have an increased risk of flares. Inflammation in gouty arthritis is induced by interleukin (IL)-1b. Canakinumab inhibits IL-1b effectively in clinical studies. This study compared different doses of canakinumab vs colchicine in preventing flares in gout patients initiating allopurinol therapy.Methods: In this 24 wk double blind study, gout patients (20-79 years) initiating allopurinol were randomized (1:1:1:1:1:1:2) to canakinumab s.c. single doses of 25, 50, 100, 200, 300 mg, or 150mg divided in doses every 4 wks (50þ50þ25þ25mg [q4wk]) or colchicine 0.5mg p.o. daily for 16 wks. Primary outcome was to determine the canakinumab dose giving comparable efficacy to colchicine with respect to number of flares occurring during first 16 wks. Secondary outcomes included number of patients with flares and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels during the first 16 wks.Results: 432 patients were randomized and 391 (91%) completed the study. All canakinumab doses were better than colchicine in preventing flares and therefore, a canakinumab dose comparable to colchicine couldn't be determined. Based on a negative binomialmodel, all canakinumab groups, except 25 mg, reduced the flare rate ratio per patient significantly compared to colchicine group (rate ratio estimates 25mg 0.60, 50mg 0.34, 100mg 0.28, 200mg 0.37, 300mg 0.29, q4wk 0.38; p_0.05). Percentage of patients with flares was lower for all canakinumab groups (25mg 27.3%, 50mg 16.7%, 100mg 14.8%, 200mg 18.5%, 300mg 15.1%, q4wk 16.7%) compared to colchicine group (44.4%). All patients taking canakinumab were significantly less likely to experience at least one gout flare than patients taking colchicine (odds ratio range [0.22 - 0.47]; p_0.05 for all). Median baseline CRP levels were 2.86 mg/L for 25 mg, 3.42 mg/L for 50 mg, 1.76 mg/L for 100 mg, 3.66 mg/L for 200 mg, 3.21 mg/L for 300 mg, 3.23 mg/L for q4wk canakinumab groups and 2.69 mg/L for colchicine group. In all canakinumab groups with median CRP levels above the normal range at baseline, median levels declined within 15 days of treatment and were maintained at normal levels (ULN¼3 mg/L) throughout the 16 wk period. Adverse events (AEs) occurred in 52.7% (25 mg), 55.6% (50 mg), 51.9% (100 mg), 51.9% (200 mg), 54.7% (300 mg), 58.5% (q4wk) of patients on canakinumab vs 53.7% of patients on colchicine. Serious AEs (SAE) were reported in 2 (3.6%; 25 mg), 2 (3.7%, 50 mg), 3 (5.6%, 100 mg), 3 (5.6%, 200 mg), 3 (5.7%, 300 mg), 1 (1.9%, q4wk) patients on canakinumab and in 5 (4.6%) patients on colchicine. 1 fatal SAE (myocardial infarction, not related to study drug) occurred in colchicine group.Conclusions: In this randomized, double-blind active controlled study of flare prevention in gout patients initiating allopurinol therapy, treatment with canakinumab led to a statistically significant reduction in flares compared with colchicine and was well tolerated.Disclosure statement: U.A., A.B., G.K., D.R. and P.S. are employees of and have stock options or bold holdings with Novartis Pharma AG. E.M. is a principal investigator for Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. E.N. has received consulting fees from Roche. N.S. has received research grants from Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. A.S. has received consultancy fees from Novartis Pharma AG, Abbott, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Essex, Pfizer, MSD, Roche, UCB and Wyeth. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

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Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of brief motivational intervention (BMI) in reducing alcohol use and related problems among binge drinkers randomly selected from a census of 20 year-old French speaking Swiss men and to test the hypothesis that BMI contributes to maintain low-risk drinking among non-bingers. Methods: Randomized controlled trial comparing the impact of BMI on weekly alcohol use, frequency of binge drinking and occurrence of alcohol-related problems. Setting: Army recruitment center. Participants: A random sample of 622 men were asked to participate, 178 either refused, or missed appointment, or had to follow military assessment procedures instead, resulting in 418 men randomized into BMI or control conditions, 88.7% completing the 6-month follow-up assessment. Intervention: A single face-to-face BMI session exploring alcohol use and related problems in order to stimulate behaviour change perspective in a non-judgmental, empathic manner based on the principles of motivational interviewing (MI). Main outcome measures: Weekly alcohol use, binge drinking frequency and the occurrence of 12 alcohol-related consequences. Results: Among binge drinkers, we observed a 20% change in drinking induced by BMI, with a reduction in weekly drinking of 1.5 drink in the BMI group, compared to an increase of 0.8 drink per week in the control group (incidence rate ratio 0.8, 95% confidence interval 0,66 to 0,98, p = 0.03). BMI did not influence the frequency of binge drinking and the occurrence of 12 possible alcohol-related consequences. However, BMI induced a reduction in the alcohol use of participants who, after drinking over the past 12 months, experienced alcohol-related consequences, i.e., hangover (-20%), missed a class (-53%), got behind at school (-54%), argued with friends (-38%), engaged in unplanned sex (-45%) or did not use protection when having sex (-64%). BMI did not reduce weekly drinking in those who experienced the six other problems screened. Among non-bingers, BMI did not contribute to maintain low-risk drinking. Conclusions: At army conscription, BMI reduced alcohol use in binge drinkers, particularly in those who recently experienced alcohol-related adverse consequences. No preventive effect of BMI was observed among non-bingers. BMI is an interesting preventive option in young binge drinkers, particularly in countries with mandatory army recruitment.

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Short description of the proposed presentation * lees than 100 words This paper describes the interdisciplinary work done in Uspantán, Guatemala, a city vulnerable to natural hazards. We investigated local responses to landslides that happened in 2007 and 2010 and had a strong impact on the local community. We show a complete example of a systemic approach that incorporates physical, social and environmental aspects in order to understand risks. The objective of this work is to present the combination of social and geological data (mapping), and describe the methodology used for identification and assessment of risk. The article discusses both the limitations and methodological challenges encountered when conducting interdisciplinary research. Describe why it is important to present this topic at the Global Platform in less than 50 words This work shows the benefits of addressing risk in an interdisciplinary perspective, in particular how integrating social sciences can help identify new phenomena and natural hazards and assess risk. It gives a practical example of how one can integrate data from different fields. What is innovative about this presentation? * The use of mapping to combine qualitative and quantitative data. By coupling approaches, we could associate a hazard map with qualitative data gathered by interviews with the population. This map is an important document for the authorities. Indeed, it allows them to be aware of the most dangerous zones, the affected families and the places where it is most urgent to intervene.

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Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.