Estudo do processo de formação do cavaco durante o torneamento e sua relação com a microestrutura utilizando o método dos elementos finitos.

O objetivo desse trabalho foi avaliar o processo de formação do cavaco durante o torneamento utilizando simulação numérica pelo método dos elementos finitos. Para realizar o estudo foram definidos dois tipos de aços inoxidáveis austeníticos, um com matriz metálica sem a presença significativa de inclusões, do tipo ABNT 304, e outro com a presença de inclusões não metálicas, do tipo ABNT 303. O estudo foi focado nos mecanismos de formação e ruptura do cavaco, na determinação das forças de usinagem, no campo de tensões, deformações, e temperaturas durante o processo, que foram relacionados com aspectos e características da microestrutura do material. Os resultados obtidos foram comparados com as forças de usinagem experimentais, com a espessura e morfologia do cavaco. O desenvolvimento do trabalho, de acordo com a metodologia adotada, foi realizado em diferentes etapas. Inicialmente foi elaborado e aplicado um modelo de simulação da usinagem considerando o material homogêneo. Em outra etapa, foi realizada a modelagem de uma microestrutura submetida a um estado de tensão e deformação semelhante ao encontrado na simulação da usinagem realizada com material homogêneo. Os resultados mostraram que as partículas das inclusões maiores, alongadas, e em maior quantidade aumentam a tensão e a deformação na microestrutura. As elevadas temperaturas obtidas na usinagem dos aços inoxidáveis austeníticos aumentam a ductilidade dos sulfetos, esses se deformam em compressão junto com a matriz, e têm um efeito limitado como agente de redução dos esforços de usinagem. Por outro lado, os sulfetos facilitam a etapa de ruptura do cavaco em tensões trativas, e tendem a se romper facilitando o processo de quebra.

Estudo da reação de epoxidação do óleo de soja em condição de remoção de calor máxima.

Óleo de soja epoxidado (OSE) é um produto químico há muito tempo utilizado como co-estabilizante e plastificante secundário do poli (cloreto de vinila) (PVC), ou seja, como um material que tem limitações na quantidade máxima que pode ser usada no composto de PVC. A sua aplicação como plastificante primário, ou seja, como o principal elemento plastificante no composto de PVC, e como base para outros plastificantes de fontes renováveis, tem aumentado nos últimos anos, principalmente devido a melhorias de desempenho e à redução do custo do OSE em comparação com plastificantes tradicionais. A reação de epoxidação do óleo de soja é bem conhecida e ocorre em duas fases líquidas, com reações em ambas as fases, e transferência de massa entre as fases. O processo industrial mais utilizado conta com formação in-situ do ácido perfórmico, através da adição gradativa do principal reagente, o peróxido de hidrogênio a uma mistura agitada de ácido fórmico e óleo de soja refinado. Industrialmente, o processo é realizado em batelada, controlando a adição do reagente peróxido de hidrogênio de forma que a geração de calor não ultrapasse a capacidade de resfriamento do sistema. O processo tem um ciclo que pode variar entre 8 e 12 horas para atingir a conversão desejada, fazendo com que a capacidade de produção seja dependente de investimentos relativamente pesados em reatores agitados mecanicamente, que apresentam diversos riscos de segurança. Estudos anteriores não exploram em profundidade algumas potenciais áreas de otimização e redução das limitações dos processos, como a intensificação da transferência de calor, que permite a redução do tempo total de reação. Este trabalho avalia experimentalmente e propõe uma modelagem para a reação de epoxidação do óleo de soja em condições de remoção de calor máxima, o que permite que os reagentes sejam adicionados em sua totalidade no início da reação, simplificando o processo. Um modelo foi ajustado aos dados experimentais. O coeficiente de troca térmica, cuja estimativa teórica pode incorrer em erros significativos, foi calculado a partir de dados empíricos e incluído na modelagem, acrescentando um fator de variabilidade importante em relação aos modelos anteriores. O estudo propõe uma base teórica para potenciais alternativas aos processos adotados atualmente, buscando entender as condições necessárias e viáveis em escala industrial para redução do ciclo da reação, podendo inclusive apoiar potenciais estudos de implementação de um reator contínuo, mais eficiente e seguro, para esse processo.

Oasis de modernidad: los hoteles de Benidorm (1950-1975). Nuevas tipologías turísticas basadas en directrices del movimiento moderno

Benidorm es un caso singular entre las ciudades costeras del Mediterráneo. Una ciudad que durante un cuarto de siglo se convierte en un laboratorio de pruebas para el urbanismo de la arquitectura que emana del movimiento moderno y del urbanismo de los CIAM a través de unos experimentos cuyos resultados no eran ni esperables ni imaginables. El resultado: una ciudad vertical turística de rascacielos dominada por hoteles y apartamentos. Un valor seguro que afianza el buen funcionamiento de esta gran máquina urbana del turismo de masas mediante sus alojamientos, muy en particular los hoteles. El presente artículo pretende analizar la aparición de estas diferentes tipologías arquitectónicas propias del turismo de pequeña escala en su evolución desde el bloque prismático exento horizontal hasta la torre prismática aislada y en altura a través de la evolución y transformación de la normativa urbanística, como un paso decisivo en la generación de Benidorm como la ciudad vertical de rascacielos y como modelo del urbanismo moderno para el turismo de masas.

The Fall of the East German Birth Rate After Unification: Crisis or Means of Adaptation? CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.6, 26 June 1995

Since the fall of the Wall, Eastern Germans have drastically changed their demographic behavior. Marriages and births have dropped to an unprecedented low level. Our paper tracks birth rates of the East German population, past, present, and future. We propose a simulation model of future cohort fertility. The hypotheses we develop build on the historical record of reproductive behavior in the German Democratic Republic (GDR) since 1960 and on an analysis of the pattern of change between 1990 and 1994. The particular emphasis lies in the assumption that East German couples will rapidly westernize their family size by trying to reach completed fertility levels of the corresponding West German cohort. This implies that the resulting adaptation process includes the postunification crisis as a logical first step.

Modeling of Self-similar Traffic

Modeling of self-similar traffic is performed for the queuing system of G/M/1/K type using Weibull distribution. To study the self-similar traffic the simulation model is developed by using SIMULINK software package in MATLAB environment. Approximation of self-similar traffic on the basis of spline functions. Modeling self-similar traffic is carried outfor QS of W/M/1/K type using the Weibull distribution. Initial data are: the value of Hurst parameter H=0,65, the shape parameter of the distribution curve α≈0,7 and distribution parameter β≈0,0099. Considering that the self-similar traffic is characterized by the presence of "splashes" and long-termdependence between the moments of requests arrival in this study under given initial data it is reasonable to use linear interpolation splines.

Caractérisation tridimensionnelle de l’amplitude articulaire de l’épaule

L’épaule est l’articulation la plus mobile et la plus instable du corps humain dû à la faible quantité de contraintes osseuses et au rôle des tissus mous qui lui confèrent au moins une dizaine de degrés de liberté. La mobilité de l’épaule est un facteur de performance dans plusieurs sports. Mais son instabilité engendre des troubles musculo-squelettiques, dont les déchirures de la coiffe des rotateurs sont fréquentes et les plus handicapantes. L’évaluation de l’amplitude articulaire est un indice commun de la fonction de l’épaule, toutefois elle est souvent limitée à quelques mesures planaires pour lesquelles les degrés de liberté varient indépendamment les uns des autres. Ces valeurs utilisées dans les modèles de simulation musculo-squelettiques peuvent amener à des solutions non physiologiques. L’objectif de cette thèse était de développer des outils pour la caractérisation de la mobilité articulaire tri-dimensionnelle de l’épaule, en passant par i) fournir une méthode et son approche expérimentale pour évaluer l’amplitude articulaire tridimensionnelle de l’épaule incluant des interactions entre les degrés de liberté ; ii) proposer une représentation permettant d’interpréter les données tri-dimensionnelles obtenues; iii) présenter des amplitudes articulaires normalisées, iv) implémenter une amplitude articulaire tridimensionnelle au sein d’un modèle de simulation numérique afin de générer des mouvements sportifs optimaux plus réalistes; v) prédire des amplitudes articulaires sécuritaires et vi) des exercices de rééducation sécuritaires pour des patients ayant subi une réparation de la coiffe des rotateurs. i) Seize sujets ont été réalisé séries de mouvements d’amplitudes maximales actifs avec des combinaisons entre les différents degrés de liberté de l’épaule. Un système d’analyse du mouvement couplé à un modèle cinématique du membre supérieur a été utilisé pour estimer les cinématiques articulaires tridimensionnelles. ii) L’ensemble des orientations définies par une séquence de trois angles a été inclus dans un polyèdre non convexe représentant l’espace de mobilité articulaire prenant en compte les interactions entre les degrés de liberté. La combinaison des séries d’élévation et de rotation est recommandée pour évaluer l’amplitude articulaire complète de l’épaule. iii) Un espace de mobilité normalisé a également été défini en englobant les positions atteintes par au moins 50% des sujets et de volume moyen. iv) Cet espace moyen, définissant la mobilité physiologiques, a été utilisé au sein d’un modèle de simulation cinématique utilisé pour optimiser la technique d’un élément acrobatique de lâcher de barres réalisée par des gymnastes. Avec l’utilisation régulière de limites articulaires planaires pour contraindre la mobilité de l’épaule, seulement 17% des solutions optimales sont physiologiques. En plus, d’assurer le réalisme des solutions, notre contrainte articulaire tridimensionnelle n’a pas affecté le coût de calculs de l’optimisation. v) et vi) Les seize participants ont également réalisé des séries d’amplitudes articulaires passives et des exercices de rééducation passifs. La contrainte dans l’ensemble des muscles de la coiffe des rotateurs au cours de ces mouvements a été estimée à l’aide d’un modèle musculo-squelettique reproduisant différents types et tailles de déchirures. Des seuils de contrainte sécuritaires ont été utilisés pour distinguer les amplitudes de mouvements risquées ou non pour l’intégrité de la réparation chirurgicale. Une taille de déchirure plus grande ainsi que les déchirures affectant plusieurs muscles ont contribué à réduire l’espace de mobilité articulaire sécuritaire. Principalement les élévations gléno-humérales inférieures à 38° et supérieures à 65°, ou réalisées avec le bras maintenu en rotation interne engendrent des contraintes excessives pour la plupart des types et des tailles de blessure lors de mouvements d’abduction, de scaption ou de flexion. Cette thèse a développé une représentation innovante de la mobilité de l’épaule, qui tient compte des interactions entre les degrés de liberté. Grâce à cette représentation, l’évaluation clinique pourra être plus exhaustive et donc élargir les possibilités de diagnostiquer les troubles de l’épaule. La simulation de mouvement peut maintenant être plus réaliste. Finalement, nous avons montré l’importance de personnaliser la rééducation des patients en termes d’amplitude articulaire, puisque des exercices passifs de rééducation précoces peuvent contribuer à une re-déchirure à cause d’une contrainte trop importante qu’ils imposent aux tendons.

International energy outlook /

Latest issue consulted: 1993.

Alternative harvest strategies to alleviate predation bottlenecks: a bioeconomic modeling approach to inform adaptive management

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Modeling the development of acquired clinical immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Individuals living in regions where malaria is endemic develop an acquired immunity to malaria which enables them to remain asymptomatic while still carrying parasites. Field studies indicate that cumulative exposure to a variety of diverse Plasmodium parasites is required for the transition from symptomatic to asymptomatic malaria. This study used a simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. falciparum to investigate the development of acquired clinical immunity under different transmission conditions and levels of parasite diversity. Antibodies developed to P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), a clonally variant molecule, were assumed to be a key human immunological response to P. falciparum infection, along with responses to clonally conserved but polymorphic antigens. The time to the development of clinical immunity was found to be proportional to parasite diversity and inversely proportional to transmission intensity. The effect of early termination of symptomatic infections by chemotherapy was investigated and found not to inhibit the host's ability to develop acquired immunity. However, the time required to achieve this state was approximately double that compared to when no treatment was administered. This study demonstrates that an immune response primarily targeted against PfEMP1 has the ability to reduce clinical symptoms of infections irrespective of whether treatment is administered, supporting its role in the development of acquired clinical immunity. The results also illustrate a novel use for simulation models of P. falciparum infections, investigation of the influence of intervention strategies on the development of naturally acquired clinical immunity.

Rice morphogenesis and plant architecture: Measurement, specification and the reconstruction of structural development by 3D architectural modelling

Background and Aims The morphogenesis and architecture of a rice plant, Oryza sativa, are critical factors in the yield equation, but they are not well studied because of the lack of appropriate tools for 3D measurement. The architecture of rice plants is characterized by a large number of tillers and leaves. The aims of this study were to specify rice plant architecture and to find appropriate functions to represent the 3D growth across all growth stages. Methods A japonica type rice, 'Namaga', was grown in pots under outdoor conditions. A 3D digitizer was used to measure the rice plant structure at intervals from the young seedling stage to maturity. The L-system formalism was applied to create '3D virtual rice' plants, incorporating models of phenological development and leaf emergence period as a function of temperature and photoperiod, which were used to determine the timing of tiller emergence. Key Results The relationships between the nodal positions and leaf lengths, leaf angles and tiller angles were analysed and used to determine growth functions for the models. The '3D virtual rice' reproduces the structural development of isolated plants and provides a good estimation of the fillering process, and of the accumulation of leaves. Conclusions The results indicated that the '3D virtual rice' has a possibility to demonstrate the differences in the structure and development between cultivars and under different environmental conditions. Future work, necessary to reflect both cultivar and environmental effects on the model performance, and to link with physiological models, is proposed in the discussion.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Investigation of the Effect of Array Geometry on the Performance of Free-Space Optical Interconnects

The effect of transmitter and receiver array configurations on the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk in free-space optical interconnects was investigated. The optical system simulation software (Code V) is used to simulate both the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk. Experimentally measured, spectrally-resolved, near-field images of VCSEL higher order modes were used as extended sources in our simulation model. In addition, we have included the electrical and optical noise in our analysis to give more accurate overall performance of the FSOI system. Our results show that by changing the square lattice geometry to a hexagonal configuration, we obtain an overall signal-to-noise ratio improvement of 3 dB. Furthermore, system density is increased by up to 4 channels/mm2.

Novel array geometries for free-space optical interconnects with improved signal-to-noise ratio

We investigate the effect of transmitter and receiver array configurations on the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk in free-space optical interconnects. The optical system simulation software (Code V) is used to simulate both the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk. Experimentally measured, spectrally-resolved, near-field images of VCSEL higher order modes were used as extended sources in our simulation model. Our results show that by changing the square lattice geometry to a hexagonal configuration, we obtain the reduction in the stray-light crosstalk of up to 9 dB and an overall signal-to-noise ratio improvement of 3 dB.