Intravitreal ranibizumab monotherapy to treat retinopathy of prematurity zone II, stage 3 with plus disease.

BACKGROUND Treatment of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) stage 3 plus with bevacizumab is still very controversial. We report the outcome of 6 eyes of 4 premature infants with ROP stage 3 plus disease treated with ranibizumab monotherapy. METHODS Six eyes of 4 premature infants with threshold ROP 3 plus disease in zone II, were treated with one intravitreal injection of 0.03 ml ranibizumab. No prior laser or other intravitreal therapy was done. Fundus examination was performed prior to the intervention and at each follow-up visit. Changes in various mean vital parameters one week post intervention compared to one week pre-intervention were assessed. RESULTS The gestational age (GA) of patient 1, 2, 3, and 4 at birth was 24 5/7, 24 5/7, 24 4/7, and 26 1/7 weeks, respectively. The birth weight was 500 grams, 450 grams, 665 grams, and 745 grams, respectively. The GA at the date of treatment ranged from 34 3/7 to 38 6/7 weeks. In one infant, upper air way infection was observed 2 days post injection of the second eye. Three eyes required paracentesis to reduce the intraocular pressure after injection and to restore central artery perfusion. After six months, all eyes showed complete retinal vascularisation without any signs of disease recurrence. CONCLUSIONS Treatment of ROP 3 plus disease with intravitreal ranibizumab was effective in all cases and should be considered for treatment. One infant developed an upper air way infection suspicious for nasopharyngitis, which might be a possible side effect of ranibizumab. Another frequent complication was intraocular pressure rise after injection. More patients with longer follow-up duration are mandatory to confirm the safety and efficacy of this treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT02164604 ; Date of registration: 13.06.2014.

Finite element analysis predicts experimental failure patterns in vertebral bodies loaded via intervertebral discs up to large deformation

Vertebral compression fracture is a common medical problem in osteoporotic individuals. The quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-based finite element (FE) method may be used to predict vertebral strength in vivo, but needs to be validated with experimental tests. The aim of this study was to validate a nonlinear anatomy specific QCT-based FE model by using a novel testing setup. Thirty-seven human thoracolumbar vertebral bone slices were prepared by removing cortical endplates and posterior elements. The slices were scanned with QCT and the volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) was computed with the standard clinical approach. A novel experimental setup was designed to induce a realistic failure in the vertebral slices in vitro. Rotation of the loading plate was allowed by means of a ball joint. To minimize device compliance, the specimen deformation was measured directly on the loading plate with three sensors. A nonlinear FE model was generated from the calibrated QCT images and computed vertebral stiffness and strength were compared to those measured during the experiments. In agreement with clinical observations, most of the vertebrae underwent an anterior wedge-shape fracture. As expected, the FE method predicted both stiffness and strength better than vBMD (R2 improved from 0.27 to 0.49 and from 0.34 to 0.79, respectively). Despite the lack of fitting parameters, the linear regression of the FE prediction for strength was close to the 1:1 relation (slope and intercept close to one (0.86 kN) and to zero (0.72 kN), respectively). In conclusion, a nonlinear FE model was successfully validated through a novel experimental technique for generating wedge-shape fractures in human thoracolumbar vertebrae.

Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

European multicentre experience with the sutureless Perceval valve: clinical and haemodynamic outcomes up to 5 years in over 700 patients†.

OBJECTIVES This report summarizes the 5-year clinical and haemodynamic data from three prospective, European multicentre trials with the Perceval sutureless aortic valve. METHODS From April 2007 to August 2012, 731 consecutive patients (mean age: 78.5 years; 68.1% females; mean logistic EuroSCORE 10.9%) underwent AVR with the Perceval valve in 25 European centres. Isolated AVR was performed in 498 (68.1%) patients. A minimally invasive approach was performed in 189 (25.9%) cases. The cumulative follow-up was 729 patients-years. RESULTS In isolated AVR, mean cross-clamp and cardiopulmonary bypass times were 30.8 and 50.8 min in full sternotomy, and 37.6 and 64.4 min in the minimally invasive approach, respectively. Early cardiac-related deaths occurred in 1.9%. Overall survival rates at 1 and 5 years were 92.1 and 74.7%, respectively. Major paravalvular leak occurred in 1.4% and 1% at early and late follow-up, respectively. Significant improvement in clinical status was observed postoperatively in the majority of patients. Mean and peak gradients decreased from 42.9 and 74.0 mmHg preoperatively, to 7.8 and 16 mmHg at the 3-year follow-up. LV mass decreased from 254.5 to 177.4 g at 3 years. CONCLUSIONS This European multicentre experience, with the largest cohort of patients with sutureless valves to date, shows excellent clinical and haemodynamic results that remain stable even up to the 5-year follow-up. Even in this elderly patient cohort with 40% octogenarians, both early and late mortality rates were very low. There were no valve migrations, structural valve degeneration or valve thrombosis in the follow-up. The sutureless technique is a promising alternative to biological aortic valve replacement.

Chronological Order of Appearance of Extraintestinal Manifestations Relative to the Time of IBD Diagnosis in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort.

BACKGROUND Data evaluating the chronological order of appearance of extraintestinal manifestations (EIMs) relative to the time of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) diagnosis is currently lacking. We aimed to assess the type, frequency, and chronological order of appearance of EIMs in patients with IBD. METHODS Data from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analyzed. RESULTS The data on 1249 patients were analyzed (49.8% female, median age: 40 [interquartile range, 30-51 yr], 735 [58.8%] with Crohn's disease, 483 [38.7%] with ulcerative colitis, and 31 [2.5%] with indeterminate colitis). A total of 366 patients presented with EIMs (29.3%). Of those, 63.4% presented with 1, 26.5% with 2, 4.9% with 3, 2.5% with 4, and 2.7% with 5 EIMs during their lifetime. Patients presented with the following diseases as first EIMs: peripheral arthritis 70.0%, aphthous stomatitis 21.6%, axial arthropathy/ankylosing spondylitis 16.4%, uveitis 13.7%, erythema nodosum 12.6%, primary sclerosing cholangitis 6.6%, pyoderma gangrenosum 4.9%, and psoriasis 2.7%. In 25.8% of cases, patients presented with their first EIM before IBD was diagnosed (median time 5 mo before IBD diagnosis: range, 0-25 mo), and in 74.2% of cases, the first EIM manifested itself after IBD diagnosis (median: 92 mo; range, 29-183 mo). CONCLUSIONS In one quarter of patients with IBD, EIMs appeared before the time of IBD diagnosis. Occurrence of EIMs should prompt physicians to look for potential underlying IBD.

The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country intelligence database to estimate the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy from 2005 to 2014. We fitted the number of adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to observed estimates, and predicted first-line and second-line needs between 2015 and 2030. We present results for sub-Saharan Africa, and eight selected countries. We present 18 scenarios, combining the availability of viral load monitoring, speed of antiretroviral scale-up, and rates of retention and switching to second-line. HIV transmission was not included. FINDINGS Depending on the scenario, 8·7-25·6 million people are expected to receive antiretroviral therapy in 2020, of whom 0·5-3·0 million will be receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy. The proportion of patients on treatment receiving second-line therapy was highest (15·6%) in the scenario with perfect retention and immediate switching, no further scale-up, and universal routine viral load monitoring. In 2030, the estimated range of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy will remain constant, but the number of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy will increase to 0·8-4·6 million (6·6-19·6%). The need for second-line antiretroviral therapy was two to three times higher if routine viral load monitoring was implemented throughout the region, compared with a scenario of no further viral load monitoring scale-up. For each monitoring strategy, the future proportion of patients receiving second-line antiretroviral therapy differed only minimally between countries. INTERPRETATION Donors and countries in sub-Saharan Africa should prepare for a substantial increase in the need for second-line drugs during the next few years as access to viral load monitoring improves. An urgent need exists to decrease the costs of second-line drugs. FUNDING World Health Organization, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health.

The independent role of prenatal and postnatal exposure to active and passive smoking on the development of early wheeze in children.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases childhood asthma risk, but health effects in children of nonsmoking mothers passively exposed to tobacco smoke during pregnancy are unclear. We examined the association of maternal passive smoking during pregnancy and wheeze in children aged ≤2 years.Individual data of 27 993 mother-child pairs from 15 European birth cohorts were combined in pooled analyses taking into consideration potential confounders.Children with maternal exposure to passive smoking during pregnancy and no other smoking exposure were more likely to develop wheeze up to the age of 2 years (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20) compared with unexposed children. Risk of wheeze was further increased by children's postnatal passive smoke exposure in addition to their mothers' passive exposure during pregnancy (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.19-1.40) and highest in children with both sources of passive exposure and mothers who smoked actively during pregnancy (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.59-1.88). Risk of wheeze associated with tobacco smoke exposure was higher in children with an allergic versus nonallergic family history.Maternal passive smoking exposure during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for wheeze in children up to the age of 2 years. Pregnant females should avoid active and passive exposure to tobacco smoke for the benefit of their children's health.

The "Profiles" document: a modern revision of the objectives of undergraduate medical studies in Switzerland

The Joint Commission of the Swiss Medical Schools (SMIFK/CIMS) decided in 2000 to establish a Swiss Catalogue of Learning Objectives (SCLO) for undergraduate medical training, which was adapted from a similar Dutch blueprint. A second version of the SCLO was developed and launched in 2008. The catalogue is a prerequisite for the accreditation of the curricula of the six Swiss medical faculties and defines the contents of the Federal Licensing Examination (FLE). Given the evolution of the field of medicine and of medical education, the SMIFK/CIMS has decided to embark on a total revision of the SCLO. This article presents the proposed structure and content of Profiles, a new document which, in the future, will direct the format of undergraduate studies and of the FLE. Profiles stands for the Principal Relevant Objectives for Integrative Learning and Education in Switzerland. It is currently being developed by a group of experts from the six Swiss faculties as well as representatives of other institutions involved in these developments. The foundations of Profiles are grounded in the evolution of medical practice and of public health and are based on up-to-date teaching concepts, such as EPAs (entrustable professional activities). An introduction will cover the concepts and a tutorial will be displayed. Three main chapters will provide a description of the seven 2015 CanMEDS roles, a list of core EPAs and a series of ≈250 situations embracing the most frequent and current conditions affecting health. As Profiles is still a work in progress, it is hoped that this paper will attract the interest of all individuals involved in the training of medical students.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

Racial Disparities in Access to and Outcomes of Kidney Transplantation in Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults: Results From the ESPN/ERA-EDTA (European Society of Pediatric Nephrology/European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association) Registry.

BACKGROUND Racial disparities in kidney transplantation in children have been found in the United States, but have not been studied before in Europe. STUDY DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS Data were derived from the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry, an international pediatric renal registry collecting data from 36 European countries. This analysis included 1,134 young patients (aged ≤19 years) from 8 medium- to high-income countries who initiated renal replacement therapy (RRT) in 2006 to 2012. FACTOR Racial background. OUTCOMES & MEASUREMENTS Differences between racial groups in access to kidney transplantation, transplant survival, and overall survival on RRT were examined using Cox regression analysis while adjusting for age at RRT initiation, sex, and country of residence. RESULTS 868 (76.5%) patients were white; 59 (5.2%), black; 116 (10.2%), Asian; and 91 (8.0%), from other racial groups. After a median follow-up of 2.8 (range, 0.1-3.0) years, we found that black (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.34-0.72) and Asian (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.41-0.71) patients were less likely to receive a kidney transplant than white patients. These disparities persisted after adjustment for primary renal disease. Transplant survival rates were similar across racial groups. Asian patients had higher overall mortality risk on RRT compared with white patients (HR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.14-5.49). Adjustment for primary kidney disease reduced the effect of Asian background, suggesting that part of the association may be explained by differences in the underlying kidney disease between racial groups. LIMITATIONS No data for socioeconomic status, blood group, and HLA profile. CONCLUSIONS We believe this is the first study examining racial differences in access to and outcomes of kidney transplantation in a large European population. We found important differences with less favorable outcomes for black and Asian patients. Further research is required to address the barriers to optimal treatment among racial minority groups.

In Utero Exposure to Antiretroviral Drugs: Effect on Birth Weight and Growth Among HIV-exposed Uninfected Children in Brazil.

BACKGROUND There are concerns about the effects of in utero exposure to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) on the development of HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether in utero exposure to ARVs is associated with lower birth weight/height and reduced growth during the first 2 years of life. METHODS This cohort study was conducted among HEU infants born between 1996 and 2010 in Tertiary children's hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Weight was measured by mechanical scale, and height was measured by measuring board. Z-scores for weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-length were calculated. We modeled trajectories by mixed-effects models and adjusted for mother's age, CD4 cell count, viral load, year of birth and family income. RESULTS A total of 588 HEU infants were included of whom 155 (26%) were not exposed to ARVs, 114 (19%) were exposed early (first trimester) and 319 (54%) later. WAZ were lower among infants exposed early compared with infants exposed later: adjusted differences were -0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.99 to -0.04, P = 0.02) at birth and -0.22 (95% CI: -0.47 to 0.04, P = 0.10) during follow-up. LAZ were lower during follow-up: -0.35 (95% CI: -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). There were no differences in weight-for-length scores. Z-scores of infants exposed late during pregnancy were similar to unexposed infants. CONCLUSIONS In HEU children, early exposure to ARVs was associated with lower WAZ at birth and lower LAZ up to 2 years of life. Growth of HEU children needs to be monitored closely.

Modes of Supply for US Exports of Services

We examine the choice of modes of delivery in services based on US data, including both cross-border exports and sales through foreign affiliates. We focus on characteristics of destination markets and how this impacts on mode choice. We find that market size, distance and policy all play a role in where firms establish, and in how many markets firms enter. The importance of sales through affiliates relative to total foreign sales also depends on factors like market size, geographic and economic distance and the policy regime in place. Precisely, how important these factors are depends on the sector in question.