Active Data Collection Techniques to Understand Online Scammers and Cybercriminals

Nigerian scam, also known as advance fee fraud or 419 scam, is a prevalent form of online fraudulent activity that causes financial loss to individuals and businesses. Nigerian scam has evolved from simple non-targeted email messages to more sophisticated scams targeted at users of classifieds, dating and other websites. Even though such scams are observed and reported by users frequently, the community’s understanding of Nigerian scams is limited since the scammers operate “underground”. To better understand the underground Nigerian scam ecosystem and seek effective methods to deter Nigerian scam and cybercrime in general, we conduct a series of active and passive measurement studies. Relying upon the analysis and insight gained from the measurement studies, we make four contributions: (1) we analyze the taxonomy of Nigerian scam and derive long-term trends in scams; (2) we provide an insight on Nigerian scam and cybercrime ecosystems and their underground operation; (3) we propose a payment intervention as a potential deterrent to cybercrime operation in general and evaluate its effectiveness; and (4) we offer active and passive measurement tools and techniques that enable in-depth analysis of cybercrime ecosystems and deterrence on them. We first created and analyze a repository of more than two hundred thousand user-reported scam emails, stretching from 2006 to 2014, from four major scam reporting websites. We select ten most commonly observed scam categories and tag 2,000 scam emails randomly selected from our repository. Based upon the manually tagged dataset, we train a machine learning classifier and cluster all scam emails in the repository. From the clustering result, we find a strong and sustained upward trend for targeted scams and downward trend for non-targeted scams. We then focus on two types of targeted scams: sales scams and rental scams targeted users on Craigslist. We built an automated scam data collection system and gathered large-scale sales scam emails. Using the system we posted honeypot ads on Craigslist and conversed automatically with the scammers. Through the email conversation, the system obtained additional confirmation of likely scam activities and collected additional information such as IP addresses and shipping addresses. Our analysis revealed that around 10 groups were responsible for nearly half of the over 13,000 total scam attempts we received. These groups used IP addresses and shipping addresses in both Nigeria and the U.S. We also crawled rental ads on Craigslist, identified rental scam ads amongst the large number of benign ads and conversed with the potential scammers. Through in-depth analysis of the rental scams, we found seven major scam campaigns employing various operations and monetization methods. We also found that unlike sales scammers, most rental scammers were in the U.S. The large-scale scam data and in-depth analysis provide useful insights on how to design effective deterrence techniques against cybercrime in general. We study underground DDoS-for-hire services, also known as booters, and measure the effectiveness of undermining a payment system of DDoS Services. Our analysis shows that the payment intervention can have the desired effect of limiting cybercriminals’ ability and increasing the risk of accepting payments.

Métodos no paramétricos para el análisis de series de tiempo

Métodos no paramétricos para el análisis de series de tiempo, es una continuación del trabajo que se realizó en la lección introducción a las Series de Tiempo: Métodos Paramétricos; la finalidad ahora, es proporcionarle al estudiante las herramientas que le permitan tomar decisiones, a través de la construcción de los modelos no paramétricos por eso el sentido, de esta nueva publicación, es guiar al estudia te en los aspectos del manejo básico de la construcción de dichos modelos para la realización de futuras aplicaciones en derivados financieros, teoría de portafolios y mercados de capitales, entre otros. La escritura de textos, incluida esta colección es un programa del Provecto Institucional Permanencia con Calidad - PIPC-, cuyo objetivo principal es intervenir los niveles de deserción perdida académica de los estudiantes de la Institución. Todas las carátulas de la colección vienen ilustradas, a manera de identificación, con diseños de la geometría fractal, cuya fuente u origen se encuentra referenciado en las páginas interiores de los textos.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

The effect of mobile technology as an active student response system on the acquisition of U.S. history content of secondary students with specific learning disabilities

Students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) typically learn less history content than their peers without disabilities and show fewer learning gains. Even when they are provided with the same instructional strategies, many students with SLD struggle to grasp complex historical concepts and content area vocabulary. Many strategies involving technology have been used in the past to enhance learning for students with SLD in history classrooms. However, very few studies have explored the effectiveness of emerging mobile technology in K-12 history classrooms. ^ This study investigated the effects of mobile devices (iPads) as an active student response (ASR) system on the acquisition of U.S. history content of middle school students with SLD. An alternating treatments single subject design was used to compare the effects of two interventions. There were two conditions and a series of pretest probesin this study. The conditions were: (a) direct instruction and studying from handwritten notes using the interactive notebook strategy and (b) direct instruction and studying using the Quizlet App on the iPad. There were three dependent variables in this study: (a) percent correct on tests, (b) rate of correct responses per minute, and (c) rate of errors per minute. ^ A comparative analysis suggested that both interventions (studying from interactive notes and studying using Quizlet on the iPad) had varying degrees of effectiveness in increasing the learning gains of students with SLD. In most cases, both interventions were equally effective. During both interventions, all of the participants increased their percentage correct and increased their rate of correct responses. Most of the participants decreased their rate of errors. ^ The results of this study suggest that teachers of students with SLD should consider a post lesson review in the form of mobile devices as an ASR system or studying from handwritten notes paired with existing evidence-based practices to facilitate students’ knowledge in U.S. history. Future research should focus on the use of other interactive applications on various mobile operating platforms, on other social studies subjects, and should explore various testing formats such as oral question-answer and multiple choice. ^

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.