Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of disturbances determines the main features of the transmission. In the medium run production interdependencies account for the transmission of technology shocks and consumption interdependencies account for the transmission of government shocks. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The model also accounts for the low cross country consumption correlations observed in the data.

2008 Iowa Real Property Appraisal Manual, May 2008

********NOTE: There are nine sections to this manual, all in separate files.************* **********NOTE: Large files may take longer to open******** The basis of real property assessment in Iowa is market value as defined in Iowa Code §441.21. Iowa Code §§ 421.17(17) and 441.21(h) provide that assessment jurisdictions follow the guidelines and rules in this manual to help achieve uniformity in assessments. Assessors are encouraged to use the International Association of Assessing Officers’ Standard on Mass Appraisal of Real Property in their mass appraisal practices. Estimating market value in mass appraisal involves accurately listing properties, developing a sales file that includes the primary influences on market value, and developing models for subsets of properties that share common market influences using recognized mass appraisal techniques. The assessment of an individual property should not be based solely on the sale price. The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) standard 6 says “In developing a mass appraisal, an appraiser must be aware of, understand, and correctly employ those recognized methods and techniques necessary to produce and communicate credible mass appraisals.” Accurate listing of property is the basis of a good mass appraisal program. On-site inspection and listing of property is essential in developing a good data base for revaluation. A physical review, including an on-site verification of property characteristics, should be conducted at least every four to six years. Land values should be reviewed every two years. Factors influencing the market of each property type should be identified and collected so that these factors can be considered in the mass appraisal model. It is equally important to maintain the data once it is collected. Accessing local government permit systems should be a part of a good data maintenance program along with an inspection program. Current cadastral maps and geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that are integral in checking accuracy of listings and maintaining a comprehensive data base.

Corporate finance and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanisms of monetarypolicy in a general equilibrium model of securities marketsand banking with asymmetric information. Banks' optimal asset/liability policy is such that in equilibrium capital adequacy constraints are always binding. Asymmetric information about banks' net worth adds a cost to outside equity capital, which limits the extent to which banks can relax their capital constraint. In this context monetarypolicy does not affect bank lending through changes in bank liquidity. Rather, it has the effect of changing theaggregate composition of financing by firms. The model also produces multiple equilibria, one of which displays all the features of a "credit crunch". Thus, monetary policy can also have large effects when it induces a shift from one equilibrium to the other.

Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis

This paper provides updated empirical evidence about the real and nominal effects of monetary policy in Italy, by using structural VAR analysis. We discuss different empirical approaches that have been used in order to identify monetary policy exogenous shocks. We argue that the data support the view that the Bank of Italy, at least in the recent past, has been targeting the rate on overnight interbank loans. Therefore, we interpret shocks to the overnight rate as purely exogenous monetary policy shocks and study how different macroeconomic variables react to such shocks.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

Optimal information transmission in organizations: Search and congestion

We propose a stylized model of a problem-solving organization whoseinternal communication structure is given by a fixed network. Problemsarrive randomly anywhere in this network and must find their way to theirrespective specialized solvers by relying on local information alone.The organization handles multiple problems simultaneously. For this reason,the process may be subject to congestion. We provide a characterization ofthe threshold of collapse of the network and of the stock of foatingproblems (or average delay) that prevails below that threshold. We buildupon this characterization to address a design problem: the determinationof what kind of network architecture optimizes performance for any givenproblem arrival rate. We conclude that, for low arrival rates, the optimalnetwork is very polarized (i.e. star-like or centralized ), whereas it islargely homogenous (or decentralized ) for high arrival rates. We also showthat, if an auxiliary assumption holds, the transition between these twoopposite structures is sharp and they are the only ones to ever qualify asoptimal.

Synaptic transmission with the glia.

For decades, scientists thought that all of the missing secrets of brain function resided in neurons. However, a wave of new findings indicates that glial cells, formerly considered mere supporters and subordinate to neurons, participate actively in synaptic integration and processing of information in the brain.

Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market

We combine existing balance sheet and stock market data with two new datasets to studywhether, how much, and why bank lending to firms matters for the transmission of monetarypolicy. The first new dataset enables us to quantify the bank dependence of firms precisely,as the ratio of bank debt to total assets. We show that a two standard deviation increase inthe bank dependence of a firm makes its stock price about 25% more responsive to monetarypolicy shocks. We explore the channels through which this effect occurs, and find that thestock prices of bank-dependent firms that borrow from financially weaker banks display astronger sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with the banklending channel, a theory according to which the strength of bank balance sheets mattersfor monetary policy transmission. We construct a new database of hedging activities andshow that the stock prices of bank-dependent firms that hedge against interest rate riskdisplay a lower sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with aninterest rate pass-through channel that operates via the direct transmission of policy ratesto lending rates associated with the widespread use of floating-rates in bank loans and creditline agreements.

The role of migration and domestic transmission in the spread of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.

Transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance in Switzerland: a 10-year molecular epidemiology survey.

OBJECTIVES: Representative prevalence data of transmitted drug-resistant HIV-1 are essential to establish accurate guidelines addressing resistance testing and first-line treatments. METHODS: Systematic resistance testing was carried out in individuals in Switzerland with documented HIV-1 seroconversion during 1996-2005 and available samples with RNA > 1000 copies/ml obtained within 1 year of estimated seroconversion. Resistance interpretation used the Stanford list of mutations for surveillance of transmitted drug resistance and the French National Agency for AIDS Research algorithm. RESULTS: Viral sequences from 822 individuals were available. Risk groups were men having sex with men (42%), heterosexual contacts (32%) and intravenous drug users (20%); 30% were infected with non-B subtype viruses. Overall, prevalence of transmitted resistance was 7.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.9-9.5] for any drug, 5.5% (95% CI, 3.9-7.1) for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 1.9% (95% CI, 1.0-2.8) for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and 2.7% (95% CI, 1.6-3.8) for protease inhibitors. Dual- or triple-class resistance was observed in 2% (95% CI, 0.8-2.5). No significant trend in prevalence of transmitted resistance was observed over years. There were no differences according to ethnicity, risk groups or gender, but prevalence of transmitted resistance was highest among individuals infected with subtype B virus. CONCLUSIONS: The transmission rate of drug-resistant HIV-1 has been stable since 1996, with very rare transmission of dual- or triple-class resistance. These data suggest that transmission of drug resistance in the setting of easy access to antiretroviral treatment can remain stable and be kept at a low level.

Discovery of the faithfulness gene: a model of transmission and transformation of scientific information.

The purpose of this paper is to study the diffusion and transformation of scientific information in everyday discussions. Based on rumour models and social representations theory, the impact of interpersonal communication and pre-existing beliefs on transmission of the content of a scientific discovery was analysed. In three experiments, a communication chain was simulated to investigate how laypeople make sense of a genetic discovery first published in a scientific outlet, then reported in a mainstream newspaper and finally discussed in groups. Study 1 (N=40) demonstrated a transformation of information when the scientific discovery moved along the communication chain. During successive narratives, scientific expert terminology disappeared while scientific information associated with lay terminology persisted. Moreover, the idea of a discovery of a faithfulness gene emerged. Study 2 (N=70) revealed that transmission of the scientific message varied as a function of attitudes towards genetic explanations of behaviour (pro-genetics vs. anti-genetics). Pro-genetics employed more scientific terminology than anti-genetics. Study 3 (N=75) showed that endorsement of genetic explanations was related to descriptive accounts of the scientific information, whereas rejection of genetic explanations was related to evaluative accounts of the information.

Final Report: Legislative Property Tax Study Committee, January 2009

The Committee was authorized to meet three days during the 2007 Legislative Interim and two days during the 2008 Legislative Interim. The Committee met on September 12, 2007; November 7, 2007; December 5, 2007; November 14, 2008; and January 7, 2009, at the State Capitol, Des Moines, Iowa. In 2008, the Committee retained consultants from the Institute for Public Policy at George Washington University to study property taxation and other forms of revenue generation used by local governments in Iowa and other states.