Creation of Computer Simulation Model for Ecological Consequences Prognosis of Toxic Chemicals Discharge from Sunken on Baltic Sea Bottom Weapons"

This study summarises all the accessible data on old German chemical weapons dumped in the Baltic Sea. Mr. Goncharov formulated a concept of ecological impact evaluation of chemical warfare agents (CWA) on the marine environment and structured a simulation model adapted to the specific character of the hydrological condition and hydrobiological subjects of the Bornholm Deep. The mathematical model he has created describes the spreading of contaminants by currents and turbulence in the near bottom boundary layer. Parameters of CWA discharge through corrosion of canisters were given for various kinds of bottom sediments with allowance for current velocity. He created a method for integral estimations and a computer simulation model and completed a forecast for CWA "Mustard", which showed that in normal hydrometeorological conditions there are local toxic plumes drifting along the bottom for a distance of up to several kilometres. With storm winds the toxic plumes from separate canisters interflow and lengthen and can reach fishery areas near Bornholm Island. When salt water from the North Sea flows in, the length of toxic zones can increase up to and over 100 kilometres and toxic water masses can spread into the northern Baltic. On this basis, Mr. Goncharov drew up recommendations to reduce dangers for human ecology and proposed the creation of a special system for the forecasting and remote sensing of the environmental conditions of CWA burial places.

From the chiral magnetic wave to the charge dependence of elliptic flow

The quark-gluon plasma formed in heavy ion collisions contains charged chiral fermions evolving in an external magnetic field. At finite density of electric charge or baryon number (resulting either from nuclear stopping or from fluctuations), the triangle anomaly induces in the plasma the Chiral Magnetic Wave (CMW). The CMW first induces a separation of the right and left chiral charges along the magnetic field; the resulting dipolar axial charge density in turn induces the oppositely directed vector charge currents leading to an electric quadrupole moment of the quark-gluon plasma. Boosted by the strong collective flow, the electric quadrupole moment translates into the charge dependence of the elliptic flow coefficients, so that $v_2(\pi^+) < v_2(\pi^-)$ (at positive net charge). Using the latest quantitative simulations of the produced magnetic field and solving the CMW equation, we make further quantitative estimates of the produced $v_2$ splitting and its centrality dependence. We compare the results with the available experimental data.

Selective immunisation strategy to protect newborns at risk for transmission of hepatitis B: retrospective audit of vaccine uptake

BACKGROUND: 90% of newborns infected perinatally will develop chronic hepatitis B infection with the risk of liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. In Switzerland, screening of all pregnant women for hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been recommended since 1983. Neonates at risk for perinatally acquired HBV are passively and actively immunised immediately after birth as well as at 1 and 6 months of age. The objective of this study was to evaluate the proportion of newborns immunised in accordance with the proposed vaccination schedule. METHODS: Patient records of 3997 mothers who gave birth to a liveborn infant during a two-year period at Zürich University Hospital were screened by computer. 128 women were identified as HBsAg positive or anti-HBc alone positive. Of 133 infants born to these mothers, complete data were available for 94 (71%). RESULTS: Immunisation was started in 88 infants (94%), but only in 78 (83%) within the first 24 hours of life. 85 (90%) received the 2nd immunisation but only 72 (77%) within the given time limit. 80 (85%) of the infants received the 3rd immunisation but only 69 (73%) within the correct time limit. In summary, only 51 (54%) of the infants at risk for HBV infection were immunised correctly (immunoglobulin within 24 hours and active prophylaxis at 0, 1 and 6 months). CONCLUSIONS: The success of the immunisation strategy following maternal screening and selective immunisation of newborns at risk for HBV infection is limited for various reasons (lack of screening results at birth, problems with correct documentation and communication). To overcome these drawbacks, selective vaccination strategy should be improved and general vaccination strategy, including infants, should be reconsidered.

Sexual transmission of HIV according to viral load and antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES: To synthesize the evidence on the risk of HIV transmission through unprotected sexual intercourse according to viral load and treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and conference abstracts from 1996-2009. We included longitudinal studies of serodiscordant couples reporting on HIV transmission according to plasma viral load or use of ART and used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary transmission rates [with 95% confidence intervals, (CI)]. If there were no transmission events we estimated an upper 97.5% confidence limit. RESULTS: We identified 11 cohorts reporting on 5021 heterosexual couples and 461 HIV-transmission events. The rate of transmission overall from ART-treated patients was 0.46 (95% CI 0.19-1.09) per 100 person-years, based on five events. The transmission rate from a seropositive partner with viral load below 400 copies/ml on ART, based on two studies, was zero with an upper 97.5% confidence limit of 1.27 per 100 person-years, and 0.16 (95% CI 0.02-1.13) per 100 person-years if not on ART, based on five studies and one event. There were insufficient data to calculate rates according to the presence or absence of sexually transmitted infections, condom use, or vaginal or anal intercourse. CONCLUSION: Studies of heterosexual discordant couples observed no transmission in patients treated with ART and with viral load below 400 copies/ml, but data were compatible with one transmission per 79 person-years. Further studies are needed to better define the risk of HIV transmission from patients on ART.

Overview of data assimilation methods

We present the data assimilation approach, which provides a framework for combining observations and model simulations of the climate system, and has led to a new field of applications for paleoclimatology. The three subsequent articles explore specific applications in more detail.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR >2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.

Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Role of diuretics, blockers, and statins in increasing the risk of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: reanalysis of data from the NAVIGATOR study

OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.

THE EXPRESSION PROFILE OF A GWAS DETECTED GENE (NINJ2) IN THE BRAIN OF A MOUSE MODEL OF ISCHEMIC STROKE

Stroke is the third leading cause of death and a major debilitating disease in the United States. Multiple factors, including genetic factors, contribute to the development of the disease. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have contributed to the identification of genetic loci influencing risk for complex diseases, such as stroke. In 2010, a GWAS of incident stroke was performed in four large prospective cohorts from the USA and Europe and identified an association of two Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 12p13 with a greater risk of ischemic stroke in individuals of European and African-American ancestry. These SNPs are located 11 Kb upstream of the nerve injury-induced gene 2, Ninjurin2 (NINJ2), suggesting that this gene may be involved in stroke pathogenesis. NINJ2 is a cell adhesion molecule induced in the distal glial cells from a sciatic-nerve injury at 7-days after injury. In an effort to ascribe a possible role of NINJ2 in stroke, we have assessed changes in the level of gene and protein expression of NINJ2 following a time-course from a transiently induced middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke in mice brains. We report an increase in the gene expression of NINJ2 in the ischemic and peri-infarct (ipsilateral) cortical tissues at 7 and 14-days after stroke. We also report an increase in the protein expression of NINJ2 in the cortex of both the ipsilateral and contralateral cortical tissues at the same time-points. We conclude that the expression of NINJ2 is regulated by an ischemic stroke in the cortex and is consistent with NINJ2 being involved in the recovery time-points of stroke.

Impairment of rat postnatal lung alveolar development by glucocorticoids: involvement of the p21CIP1 and p27KIP1 cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors

It has been shown that glucocorticoids accelerate lung development by limiting alveolar formation resulting from a premature maturation of the alveolar septa. Based on these data, the aim of the present work was to analyze the influence of dexamethasone on cell cycle control mechanisms during postnatal lung development. Cell proliferation is regulated by a network of signaling pathways that converge to the key regulator of cell cycle machinery: the cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) system. The activity of the various cyclin/CDK complexes can be modulated by the levels of the cyclins and their CDKs, and by expression of specific CDK inhibitors (CKIs). In the present study, newborn rats were given a 4-d treatment with dexamethasone (0.1-0.01 microg/g body weight dexamethasone sodium phosphate daily on d 1-4), or saline. Morphologically, the treatment caused a significant thinning of the septa and an acceleration of lung maturation on d 4. Study of cyclin/CDK system at d 1-36 documented a transient down-regulation of cyclin/CDK complex activities at d 4 in the dexamethasone-treated animals. Analysis of the mechanisms involved suggested a role for the CKIs p21CIP1 and p27KIP1. Indeed, we observed an increase in p21CIP1 and p27KIP1 protein levels on d 4 in the dexamethasone-treated animals. By contrast, no variations in either cyclin and CDK expression, or cyclin/CDK complex formation could be documented. We conclude that glucocorticoids may accelerate lung maturation by influencing cell cycle control mechanisms, mainly through impairment of G1 cyclin/CDK complex activation.

Rat lungs show a biphasic formation of new alveoli during postnatal development

Roughly 90% of the gas-exchange surface is formed by alveolarization of the lungs. To the best of our knowledge, the formation of new alveoli has been followed in rats only by means of morphological description or interpretation of semiquantitative data until now. Therefore, we estimated the number of alveoli in rat lungs between postnatal days 4 and 60 by unambiguously counting the alveolar openings. We observed a bulk formation of new alveoli between days 4 and 21 (17.4 times increase from 0.8 to 14.3 millions) and a second phase of continued alveolarization between days 21 and 60 (1.3 times increase to 19.3 million). The (number weighted) mean volume of the alveoli decreases during the phase of bulk alveolarization from ∼593,000 μm(3) at day 4 to ∼141,000 μm(3) at day 21, but increases again to ∼298,000 μm(3) at day 60. We conclude that the "bulk alveolarization" correlates with the mechanism of classical alveolarization (alveolarization before the microvascular maturation is completed) and that the "continued alveolarization" follows three proposed mechanisms of late alveolarization (alveolarization after microvascular maturation). The biphasic pattern is more evident for the increase in alveolar number than for the formation of new alveolar septa (estimated as the length of the free septal edge). Furthermore, a striking negative correlation between the estimated alveolar size and published data on retention of nanoparticles was detected.

Modeling of ore-forming and geoenvironmental systems: Roles of fluid flow and chemical reaction processes

Ore-forming and geoenviromental systems commonly involve coupled fluid flowand chemical reaction processes. The advanced numerical methods and computational modeling have become indispensable tools for simulating such processes in recent years. This enables many hitherto unsolvable geoscience problems to be addressed using numerical methods and computational modeling approaches. For example, computational modeling has been successfully used to solve ore-forming and mine site contamination/remediation problems, in which fluid flow and geochemical processes play important roles in the controlling dynamic mechanisms. The main purpose of this paper is to present a generalized overview of: (1) the various classes and models associated with fluid flow/chemically reacting systems in order to highlight possible opportunities and developments for the future; (2) some more general issues that need attention in the development of computational models and codes for simulating ore-forming and geoenviromental systems; (3) the related progresses achieved on the geochemical modeling over the past 50 years or so; (4) the general methodology for modeling of oreforming and geoenvironmental systems; and (5) the future development directions associated with modeling of ore-forming and geoenviromental systems.

The Transmission of Manuscripts and the Genetics of Texts. A new critical edition of Wolfram von Eschenbach’s Parzival

The discussion on the New Philology triggered by French and North American scholars in the last decade of the 20th century emphasized the material character of textual transmission inside and outside the written evidences of medieval manuscripts by downgrading the active role of the historical author. However, the reception of the ideas propagated by the New Philology adherents was rather divided. Some researchers questioned its innovative status (K. Stackmann: “Neue Philologie?”), others saw a new era of the “powers of philology” evoked (H.-U. Gumbrecht). Besides the debates on the New Philology another concept of textual materiality strengthened in the last decade, maintaining that textual alterations somewhat relate to biogenetic mutations. In a matter of fact, phenomena such as genetic and textual variation, gene recombination and ‘contamination’ (the mixing of different exemplars in one manuscript text) share common features. The paper discusses to what extent the biogenetic concepts can be used for evaluating manifestations of textual production (as the approach of ‘critique génétique’ does) and of textual transmission (as the phylogenetic analysis of manuscript variation does). In this context yet the genealogical concept of stemmatology – the treelike representation of textual development abhorred by the New Philology adepts – might prove to be useful for describing the history of texts. The textual material to be analyzed will be drawn from the Parzival Project, which is currently preparing a new electronic edition of Wolfram von Eschenbach’s Parzival novel written shortly after 1200 and transmitted in numerous manuscripts up to the age of printing (www.parzival.unibe.ch). Researches of the project have actually resulted in suggesting that the advanced knowledge of the manuscript transmission yields a more precise idea on the author’s own writing process.

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.