Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Inhibition of adaptive immune responses leads to a fatal clinical outcome in SIV-infected pigtailed macaques but not vervet African green monkeys.

African green monkeys (AGM) and other natural hosts for simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) do not develop an AIDS-like disease following SIV infection. To evaluate differences in the role of SIV-specific adaptive immune responses between natural and nonnatural hosts, we used SIV(agmVer90) to infect vervet AGM and pigtailed macaques (PTM). This infection results in robust viral replication in both vervet AGM and pigtailed macaques (PTM) but only induces AIDS in the latter species. We delayed the development of adaptive immune responses through combined administration of anti-CD8 and anti-CD20 lymphocyte-depleting antibodies during primary infection of PTM (n = 4) and AGM (n = 4), and compared these animals to historical controls infected with the same virus. Lymphocyte depletion resulted in a 1-log increase in primary viremia and a 4-log increase in post-acute viremia in PTM. Three of the four PTM had to be euthanized within 6 weeks of inoculation due to massive CMV reactivation and disease. In contrast, all four lymphocyte-depleted AGM remained healthy. The lymphocyte-depleted AGM showed only a trend toward a prolongation in peak viremia but the groups were indistinguishable during chronic infection. These data show that adaptive immune responses are critical for controlling disease progression in pathogenic SIV infection in PTM. However, the maintenance of a disease-free course of SIV infection in AGM likely depends on a number of mechanisms including non-adaptive immune mechanisms.

The adaptive significance and prevalence of courtship feeding in Hawaiian swordtail crickets

Males of many insect species feed their partner during courtship and mating. Studies of male nutrient donation in various systems have established that nuptial feeding has evolved mostly through sexual selection. Although there is extensive diversity in form, the function of nuptial gifts is typically limited to either facilitating copulation or increasing ejaculate transfer, depending on the time at which the gift is consumed by females. Unlike other insects, the Hawaiian swordtail cricket Laupala (Gryllidae: Trigonidiinae) exhibits serial transfer of nuptial gifts. Males transfer multiple spermless 'micro' spermatophores over several hours before mating at the end of the day (i.e. before the transfer of a single sperm-containing 'macro' spermatophore). By experimental manipulation of male microspermatophore donation, I tested several hypotheses pertaining to the adaptive significance of nuptial gifts in this system. I found that microspermatophore transfer improves insemination, by causing the female reproductive tract to take in more sperm. This result reveals a previously undocumented function for premating nuptial gift donation among insects. Enhanced sperm transfer due to microspermatophore donation may represent male manipulation or an internal mechanism of post-copulatory choice by females. I also performed experimental manipulation of male photoperiod to investigate how time and gender influence nuptial gift production and mating behavior. I found that the timing of mating is limited in males but not females and that the time of pair formation has consequences for the degree of nuptial gift donation, which suggests that both mating timing and microspermatophore number is important for male reproductive success. Finally, I observed the mating behavior of several trigonidiine taxa for a comparative analysis of sexual behavior and found that other genera also utilize spermless microspermatophores, which suggests that microspermatophore donation may be a common nuptial gift strategy among swordtail crickets. The elaborate nuptial feeding behavior of Hawaiian swordtail crickets prior to mating represents a newly discovered strategy to increase male insemination success rather than mating success. Based on this unexpected result, it is worth exploring whether courtship behaviors in other cricket or insect mating systems have also evolved to increase sperm uptake.

Adaptive stereotactic body radiation therapy planning for lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate the dosimetric effects of adaptive planning on lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty of 66 consecutive lung SBRT patients were selected for a retrospective adaptive planning study. CBCT images acquired at each fraction were used for treatment planning. Adaptive plans were created using the same planning parameters as the original CT-based plan, with the goal to achieve comparable comformality index (CI). For each patient, 2 cumulative plans, nonadaptive plan (PNON) and adaptive plan (PADP), were generated and compared for the following organs-at-risks (OARs): cord, esophagus, chest wall, and the lungs. Dosimetric comparison was performed between PNON and PADP for all 40 patients. Correlations were evaluated between changes in dosimetric metrics induced by adaptive planning and potential impacting factors, including tumor-to-OAR distances (dT-OAR), initial internal target volume (ITV1), ITV change (ΔITV), and effective ITV diameter change (ΔdITV). RESULTS: 34 (85%) patients showed ITV decrease and 6 (15%) patients showed ITV increase throughout the course of lung SBRT. Percentage ITV change ranged from -59.6% to 13.0%, with a mean (±SD) of -21.0% (±21.4%). On average of all patients, PADP resulted in significantly (P=0 to .045) lower values for all dosimetric metrics. ΔdITV/dT-OAR was found to correlate with changes in dose to 5 cc (ΔD5cc) of esophagus (r=0.61) and dose to 30 cc (ΔD30cc) of chest wall (r=0.81). Stronger correlations between ΔdITV/dT-OAR and ΔD30cc of chest wall were discovered for peripheral (r=0.81) and central (r=0.84) tumors, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dosimetric effects of adaptive lung SBRT planning depend upon target volume changes and tumor-to-OAR distances. Adaptive lung SBRT can potentially reduce dose to adjacent OARs if patients present large tumor volume shrinkage during the treatment.

Adaptive temporal compressive sensing for video

This paper introduces the concept of adaptive temporal compressive sensing (CS) for video. We propose a CS algorithm to adapt the compression ratio based on the scene's temporal complexity, computed from the compressed data, without compromising the quality of the reconstructed video. The temporal adaptivity is manifested by manipulating the integration time of the camera, opening the possibility to realtime implementation. The proposed algorithm is a generalized temporal CS approach that can be incorporated with a diverse set of existing hardware systems. © 2013 IEEE.

Task-driven adaptive statistical compressive sensing of gaussian mixture models

A framework for adaptive and non-adaptive statistical compressive sensing is developed, where a statistical model replaces the standard sparsity model of classical compressive sensing. We propose within this framework optimal task-specific sensing protocols specifically and jointly designed for classification and reconstruction. A two-step adaptive sensing paradigm is developed, where online sensing is applied to detect the signal class in the first step, followed by a reconstruction step adapted to the detected class and the observed samples. The approach is based on information theory, here tailored for Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), where an information-theoretic objective relationship between the sensed signals and a representation of the specific task of interest is maximized. Experimental results using synthetic signals, Landsat satellite attributes, and natural images of different sizes and with different noise levels show the improvements achieved using the proposed framework when compared to more standard sensing protocols. The underlying formulation can be applied beyond GMMs, at the price of higher mathematical and computational complexity. © 1991-2012 IEEE.

Adaptive intervention design in mobile health: Intervention design and development in the Cell Phone Intervention for You trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The obesity epidemic has spread to young adults, and obesity is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The prominence and increasing functionality of mobile phones may provide an opportunity to deliver longitudinal and scalable weight management interventions in young adults. The aim of this article is to describe the design and development of the intervention tested in the Cell Phone Intervention for You study and to highlight the importance of adaptive intervention design that made it possible. The Cell Phone Intervention for You study was a National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-sponsored, controlled, 24-month randomized clinical trial comparing two active interventions to a usual-care control group. Participants were 365 overweight or obese (body mass index≥25 kg/m2) young adults. METHODS: Both active interventions were designed based on social cognitive theory and incorporated techniques for behavioral self-management and motivational enhancement. Initial intervention development occurred during a 1-year formative phase utilizing focus groups and iterative, participatory design. During the intervention testing, adaptive intervention design, where an intervention is updated or extended throughout a trial while assuring the delivery of exactly the same intervention to each cohort, was employed. The adaptive intervention design strategy distributed technical work and allowed introduction of novel components in phases intended to help promote and sustain participant engagement. Adaptive intervention design was made possible by exploiting the mobile phone's remote data capabilities so that adoption of particular application components could be continuously monitored and components subsequently added or updated remotely. RESULTS: The cell phone intervention was delivered almost entirely via cell phone and was always-present, proactive, and interactive-providing passive and active reminders, frequent opportunities for knowledge dissemination, and multiple tools for self-tracking and receiving tailored feedback. The intervention changed over 2 years to promote and sustain engagement. The personal coaching intervention, alternatively, was primarily personal coaching with trained coaches based on a proven intervention, enhanced with a mobile application, but where all interactions with the technology were participant-initiated. CONCLUSION: The complexity and length of the technology-based randomized clinical trial created challenges in engagement and technology adaptation, which were generally discovered using novel remote monitoring technology and addressed using the adaptive intervention design. Investigators should plan to develop tools and procedures that explicitly support continuous remote monitoring of interventions to support adaptive intervention design in long-term, technology-based studies, as well as developing the interventions themselves.

Gene loss, adaptive evolution and the co-evolution of plumage coloration genes with opsins in birds.

BACKGROUND: The wide range of complex photic systems observed in birds exemplifies one of their key evolutionary adaptions, a well-developed visual system. However, genomic approaches have yet to be used to disentangle the evolutionary mechanisms that govern evolution of avian visual systems. RESULTS: We performed comparative genomic analyses across 48 avian genomes that span extant bird phylogenetic diversity to assess evolutionary changes in the 17 representatives of the opsin gene family and five plumage coloration genes. Our analyses suggest modern birds have maintained a repertoire of up to 15 opsins. Synteny analyses indicate that PARA and PARIE pineal opsins were lost, probably in conjunction with the degeneration of the parietal organ. Eleven of the 15 avian opsins evolved in a non-neutral pattern, confirming the adaptive importance of vision in birds. Visual conopsins sw1, sw2 and lw evolved under negative selection, while the dim-light RH1 photopigment diversified. The evolutionary patterns of sw1 and of violet/ultraviolet sensitivity in birds suggest that avian ancestors had violet-sensitive vision. Additionally, we demonstrate an adaptive association between the RH2 opsin and the MC1R plumage color gene, suggesting that plumage coloration has been photic mediated. At the intra-avian level we observed some unique adaptive patterns. For example, barn owl showed early signs of pseudogenization in RH2, perhaps in response to nocturnal behavior, and penguins had amino acid deletions in RH2 sites responsible for the red shift and retinal binding. These patterns in the barn owl and penguins were convergent with adaptive strategies in nocturnal and aquatic mammals, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that birds have evolved diverse opsin adaptations through gene loss, adaptive selection and coevolution with plumage coloration, and that differentiated selective patterns at the species level suggest novel photic pressures to influence evolutionary patterns of more-recent lineages.

Adaptive decision-making in buildingEXODUS

Given the importance of occupant behaviour on evacuation efficiency, a new behavioural feature has been implemented into buildingEXODUS. This feature concerns the response of occupants to exit selection and re-direction. This behaviour is not simply pre-determined by the user as part of the initialisation process, but involves the occupant taking decisions based on their previous experiences and the information available to them. This information concerns the occupants prior knowledge of the enclosure and line-of-sight information concerning queues at neighbouring exits. This new feature is demonstrated and reviewed through several examples.

Adaptive decision-making in response to crowd formations in building EXODUS

Given the importance of occupant behavior on evacuation efficiency, a new behavioral feature has been developed and implemented into buildingEXODUS. This feature concerns the response of occupants to exit selection and re-direction. This behavior is not simply pre-determined by the user as part of the initialization process, but involves the occupant taking decisions based on their previous experiences and the information available to them. This information concerns the occupants prior knowledge of the enclosure and line-of-sight information concerning queues at neighboring exits. This new feature is demonstrated and reviewed through several examples.

Adaptive decision-making in buildingEXODUS in response to exit congestion

Given the importance of occupant behavior on evacuation efficiency, a new behavioral feature has been implemented into building EXODUS. This feature concerns the response of occupants to exit selection and re-direction, given that the occupant is queuing at an external exit. This behavior is not simply pre-determined by the user as part of the initialization process, but involves the occupant taking decisions based on their previous experiences with the enclosure and the information available to them. This information concerns the occupant's prior knowledge of the enclosure and line-of-sight information concerning queues at neighboring exits. This new feature is demonstrated and reviewed through several examples.

Shape-optimized mesh partitioning and load balancing for parallel adaptive FEM

We present a dynamic distributed load balancing algorithm for parallel, adaptive Finite Element simulations in which we use preconditioned Conjugate Gradient solvers based on domain-decomposition. The load balancing is designed to maintain good partition aspect ratio and we show that cut size is not always the appropriate measure in load balancing. Furthermore, we attempt to answer the question why the aspect ratio of partitions plays an important role for certain solvers. We define and rate different kinds of aspect ratio and present a new center-based partitioning method of calculating the initial distribution which implicitly optimizes this measure. During the adaptive simulation, the load balancer calculates a balancing flow using different versions of the diffusion algorithm and a variant of breadth first search. Elements to be migrated are chosen according to a cost function aiming at the optimization of subdomain shapes. Experimental results for Bramble's preconditioner and comparisons to state-of-the-art load balancers show the benefits of the construction.

Natural inspiration for self-adaptive systems

The emergent behaviour of autonomic systems, together with the scale of their deployment, impedes prediction of the full range of configuration and failure scenarios; thus it is not possible to devise management and recovery strategies to cover all possible outcomes. One solution to this problem is to embed self-managing and self-healing abilities into such applications. Traditional design approaches favour determinism, even when unnecessary. This can lead to conflicts between the non-functional requirements. Natural systems such as ant colonies have evolved cooperative, finely tuned emergent behaviours which allow the colonies to function at very large scale and to be very robust, although non-deterministic. Simple pheromone-exchange communication systems are highly efficient and are a major contribution to their success. This paper proposes that we look to natural systems for inspiration when designing architecture and communications strategies, and presents an election algorithm which encapsulates non-deterministic behaviour to achieve high scalability, robustness and stability.

On the persistence of computer dreams: an application framework for robust adaptive deployment

The anticipated rewards of adaptive approaches will only be fully realised when autonomic algorithms can take configuration and deployment decisions that match and exceed those of human engineers. Such decisions are typically characterised as being based on a foundation of experience and knowledge. In humans, these underpinnings are themselves founded on the ashes of failure, the exuberance of courage and (sometimes) the outrageousness of fortune. In this paper we describe an application framework that will allow the incorporation of similarly risky, error prone and downright dangerous software artefacts into live systems – without undermining the certainty of correctness at application level. We achieve this by introducing the notion of application dreaming.

Generic support for policy-based self-adaptive systems

This paper presents a policy definition language which forms part of a generic policy toolkit for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be modified dynamically and automatically. Targeted enhancements to the current state of practice include: policy self-adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically modified to match environmental conditions; improved support for non autonomics-expert developers; and facilitating easy deployment of adaptive policies into legacy code. The policy definition language permits powerful expression of self-managing behaviours and facilitates a diverse policy behaviour space. Features include support for multiple versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta policies to dynamically select between policy instances. An example deployment scenario illustrates advanced functionality in the context of a multi policy stock trading system which is sensitive to environmental volatility.