Nocturnal ranging behaviour of urban hedgehogs, Erinaceus europaeus, in relation to risk and reward

Urban areas have both positive and negative influences on wildlife. For terrestrial mammals, one of the principle problems is the risk associated with moving through the environment whilst foraging. In this study, we examined nocturnal patterns of movement of urban-dwelling hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in relation to (i) the risks posed by predators and motor vehicles and (ii) nightly weather patterns. Hedgehogs preferentially utilised the gardens of semi-detached and terraced houses. However, females, but not males, avoided the larger back gardens of detached houses, which contain more of the habitat features selected by badgers. This difference in the avoidance of predation risk is probably associated with sex differences in breeding behaviour. Differences in nightly movement patterns were consistent with strategies associated with mating behaviour and the accumulation of fat reserves for hibernation. Hedgehogs also exhibited differences in behaviour associated with the risks posed by humans; they avoided actively foraging near roads and road verges, but did not avoid crossing roads per se. They were, however, significantly more active after midnight when there was a marked reduction in vehicle and foot traffic. In particular, responses to increased temperature, which is associated with increased abundance of invertebrate prey, were only observed after midnight. This variation in the timing of bouts of activity would reduce the risks associated with human activities. There were also profound differences in both area ranged and activity with chronological year which warrant further investigation.

3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.

Progressive erosion of genetic and epigenetic variation in callus-derived cocoa (Theobroma cacao) plants

Relatively little is known about the timing of genetic and epigenetic forms of somaclonal variation arising from callus growth. We surveyed for both types of change in cocoa (Theobroma cacao) plants regenerated from calli of various ages, and also between tissues from the source trees. For genetic change, we used 15 single sequence repeat (SSR) markers from four source trees and from 233 regenerated plants. For epigenetic change, we used 386 methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) markers on leaf and explant (staminode) DNA from two source trees and on leaf DNA from 114 regenerants. Genetic variation within source trees was limited to one slippage mutation in one leaf. Regenerants were far more variable, with 35% exhibiting at least one mutation. Genetic variation initially accumulated with culture age but subsequently declined. MSAP (epigenetic) profiles diverged between leaf and staminode samples from source trees. Multivariate analysis revealed that leaves from regenerants occupied intermediate eigenspace between leaves and staminodes of source plants but became progressively more similar to source tree leaves with culture age. Statistical analysis confirmed this rather counterintuitive finding that leaves of ‘late regenerants’ exhibited significantly less genetic and epigenetic divergence from source leaves than those exposed to short periods of callus growth.

Sensitivity analysis of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model under two different flow regimes

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.

Markers of intestinally-derived lipoproteins: application to studies of altered diet and meal fatty acid compositions

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The atherogenic potential of dietary derived lipids, chylomicrons (CM) and their remnants (CMr) is now becoming more widely recognised. To investigate factors effecting levels of CM and CMr and their importance in coronary heart disease risk it is essential to use a specific method of quantification. Two studies were carried out to investigate: (i) effects of increased daily intake of long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (LC n-3 PUFA), and (ii) effects of increasing meal monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) content on the postprandial response of intestinally-derived lipoproteins. The contribution of the intestinally-derived lipoproteins to total lipaemia was assessed by triacylglycerol-rich lipoprotein (TRL) apolipoprotein B-48 (apo B-48) and retinyl ester (RE) concentrations. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a randomised controlled crossover trial (placebo vs LC n-3 PUFA) a mean daily intake of 1.4 g/day of LC n-3 PUFA failed to reduce fasting and postprandial triacylglycerol (TAG) response in 9 healthy male volunteers. Although the pattern and nature of the apo B-48 response was consistent with the TAG response following the two diets, the postprandial RE response differed on the LC n-3 PUFA diet with a lower early RE response and a delayed and more marked increase in RE in the late postprandial period compared with the control diet, but the differences did not reach levels of statistical significance. In the meal study there was no effect of MUFA/SFA content on the total lipaemic response to the meals nor on the contribution of intestinally derived lipoproteins evaluated as TAG, apo B-48 and RE responses in the TRL fraction. In both studies, the RE and apo B-48 measurements provided broadly similar information with respect to lack of effects of dietary or meal fatty acid composition and the presence of single or multiple peak responses. However the apo B-48 and RE measurements differed with respect to the timing of their peak response times, with a delayed RE peak, relalive to apo B-48, of approximately 2-3 hours for the LC n-3 PUFA diet (p = 0.002) study and 1-1.5 hours for the meal MUFA/SFA study. CONCLUSIONS: It was concluded that there are limitations of using RE as a specific CM marker, apo B-48 quantitation was found to be a more appropriate method for CM and CMr quantitation. However it was still considered of value to measure RE as it provided additional information regarding the incorporation of other constituents into the CM particle.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and development conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangu (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs typically simulate water resources impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM, and the CHMs include river routing. Simulations of average annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global mean temperature from the HadCM3 climate model and (2)a prescribed increase in global-mean temperature of 2oC for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model and structural uncertainty. We find that differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low flow. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are presented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs.This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find, however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evaporation estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

An examination of the complementary volume–volatility information theories

The volume–volatility relationship during the dissemination stages of information flow is examined by analyzing various theories relating volume and volatility as complementary rather than competing models. The mixture of distributions hypothesis, sequential arrival of information hypothesis, the dispersion of beliefs hypothesis, and the noise trader hypothesis all add to the understanding of how volume and volatility interact for different types of futures traders. An integrated picture of the volume–volatility relationship is provided by investigating the dynamic linear and nonlinear associations between volatility and the volume of informed (institutional) and uninformed (the general public) traders. In particular, the trading behavior explanation for the persistence of futures volatility, the effect of the timing of private information arrival, and the response of institutional traders to excess noise trading risk is examined

Spatial and temporal effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) on leaf growth, cell expansion and cell production in a closed canopy of poplar

Leaf expansion in the fast-growing tree,Populus × euramericana was stimulated by elevated [CO2] in a closed-canopy forest plantation, exposed using a free air CO2 enrichment technique enabling long-term experimentation in field conditions. The effects of elevated [CO2] over time were characterized and related to the leaf plastochron index (LPI), and showed that leaf expansion was stimulated at very early (LPI, 0–3) and late (LPI, 6–8) stages in development. Early and late effects of elevated [CO2] were largely the result of increased cell expansion and increased cell production, respectively. Spatial effects of elevated [CO2] were also marked and increased final leaf size resulted from an effect on leaf area, but not leaf length, demonstrating changed leaf shape in response to [CO2]. Leaves exhibited a basipetal gradient of leaf development, investigated by defining seven interveinal areas, with growth ceasing first at the leaf tip. Interestingly, and in contrast to other reports, no spatial differences in epidermal cell size were apparent across the lamina, whereas a clear basipetal gradient in cell production rate was found. These data suggest that the rate and timing of cell production was more important in determining leaf shape, given the constant cell size across the leaf lamina. The effect of elevated [CO2] imposed on this developmental gradient suggested that leaf cell production continued longer in elevated [CO2] and that basal increases in cell production rate were also more important than altered cell expansion for increased final leaf size and altered leaf shape in elevated [CO2].

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

Solar signal propagation: the role of gravity waves and stratospheric sudden warmings

We use a troposphere‐stratosphere model of intermediate complexity to study the atmospheric response to an idealized solar forcing in the subtropical upper stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) early winter. We investigate two conditions that could influence poleward and downward propagation of the response: (1) the representation of gravity wave effects and (2) the presence/absence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). We also investigate how the perturbation influences the timing and frequency of SSWs. Differences in the poleward and downward propagation of the response within the stratosphere are found depending on whether Rayleigh friction (RF) or a gravity wave scheme (GWS) is used to represent gravity wave effects. These differences are likely related to differences in planetary wave activity in the GWS and RF versions, as planetary wave redistribution plays an important role in the downward and poleward propagation of stratospheric signals. There is also remarkable sensitivity in the tropospheric response to the representation of the gravity wave effects. It is most realistic for GWS. Further, tropospheric responses are systematically different dependent on the absence/presence of SSWs. When only years with SSWs are examined, the tropospheric signal appears to have descended from the stratosphere, while the signal in the troposphere appears disconnected from the stratosphere when years with SSWs are excluded. Different troposphere‐stratosphere coupling mechanisms therefore appear to be dominant for years with and without SSWs. The forcing does not affect the timing of SSWs, but does result in a higher occurrence frequency throughout NH winter. Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation effects were not included.

A cognitive and psycholinguistic investigation of neologisms

Background: Jargon aphasia with neologisms (i.e., novel nonword utterances) is a challenging language disorder that lacks a definitive theoretical description as well as clear treatment recommendations (Marshall, 2006). Aim: The aims of this two part investigation were to determine the source of neologisms in an individual with jargon aphasia (FF), to identify potential facilitatory semantic and/or phonological cuing effects in picture naming, and to determine whether the timing of the cues relative to the target picture mediated the cuing advantage. Methods and Procedures: FF’s underlying linguistic deficits were determined using several cognitive and linguistic tests. A series of computerized naming experiments using a modified version of the 175 item-Philadelphia Naming Test (Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) manipulated the cue type (semantic versus phonological) and relatedness (related versus unrelated). In a follow-up experiment, the relative timing of phonological cues was manipulated to test the effect of timing on the cuing advantage. The accuracy of naming responses and error patterns were analyzed. Outcome and Results: FF’s performance on the linguistic and cognitive test battery revealed a severe naming impairment with relatively spared word and nonword repetition, auditory comprehension of words and monitoring, and fairly well preserved semantic abilities. This performance profile was used to evaluate various explanations for neologisms including a loss of phonological codes, monitoring failure, and impairments in semantic system. The primary locus of his deficit appears to involve the connection between semantics to phonology, specifically, when word production involves accessing the phonological forms following semantic access. FF showed a significant cuing advantage only for phonological cues in picture naming, particularly when the cue preceded or coincided with the onset of the target picture. Conclusions: When integrated with previous findings, the results from this study suggest that the core deficit of this and at least some other jargon aphasics is in the connection from semantics to phonology. The facilitative advantage of phonological cues could potentially be exploited in future clinical and research studies to test the effectiveness of these cues for enhancing naming performance in individuals like FF.

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.

Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 3035 similar to t similar to ha-1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 19602006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 similar to N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long-term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 similar to years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 similar to cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 similar to K similar to decade-1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 similar to days similar to decade-1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 decade-1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 similar to t similar to ha-1 for chitted potato (range 7.119.3 similar to t similar to ha-1) and 11.5 similar to t similar to ha-1 for unchitted potato (range 7.115.5 similar to t similar to ha-1) equivalent to 3439% of the increased potential yield over the period or 2326% of the increase in actual measured yields.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration2; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions3, 4, 5; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO2 is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries3, 6, 7, 8. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0–2.1 °C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate–carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO2 emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate–carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate–carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO2-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.