The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect.

Turning on the alarm: the neural mechanisms of the transition from innocuous to painful sensation

The experience of pain occurs when the level of a stimulus is sufficient to elicit a marked affective response, putatively to warn the organism of potential danger and motivate appropriate behavioral responses. Understanding the biological mechanisms of the transition from innocuous to painful levels of sensation is essential to understanding pain perception as well as clinical conditions characterized by abnormal relationships between stimulation and pain response. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to characterize the neural response associated with this transition and the correspondence between that response and subjective reports of pain. Towards this goal, this study examined BOLD response profiles across a range of temperatures spanning the pain threshold. 14 healthy adults underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while a range of thermal stimuli (44-49oC) were applied. BOLD responses showed a sigmoidal profile along the range of temperatures in a network of brain regions including insula and mid- cingulate, as well as a number of regions associated with motor responses including ventral lateral nuclei of the thalamus, globus pallidus and premotor cortex. A sigmoid function fit to the BOLD responses in these regions explained up to 85% of the variance in individual pain ratings, and yielded an estimate of the temperature of steepest transition from non-painful to painful heat that was nearly identical to that generated by subjective ratings. These results demonstrate a precise characterization of the relationship between objective levels of stimulation, resulting neural activation, and subjective experience of pain and provide direct evidence for a neural mechanism supporting the nonlinear transition from innocuous to painful levels along the sensory continuum.

House in the Shape of a Stretcher

In an essay from 1910 the architect and critic Adolf Loos distinguishes between buildings that are for everyday practical use and buildings made for contemplation. The latter type he asserts may be considered as both architecture and works of art. He refers to only two types of contemplative architecture namely the tomb and the monument. There are certain paintings made in the early part of the twentieth century that do not observe this separation such as certain works by Hopper and de Chirico. Here the commonplace is simultaneously experienced in the way a tomb might be. This mortifying gaze condemns building by inducing a sense that space has become inhospitable and alienating. It could be argued that these and other paintings made around this time such as Carlo Carra The Abandoned House 1916 are like premonitions of what will occur when building observes the prescription laid down by Loos and omit an aesthetic dimension. However it might also suggest that buildings need their tombs or at least some space that is not completely assimilable by the daily, practical and functional needs of an inhabitant.

An overview of domestic energy models and a new approach with agent based modelling

Government targets for CO2 reductions are being progressively tightened, the Climate Change Act set the UK target as an 80% reduction by 2050 on 1990 figures. The residential sector accounts for about 30% of emissions. This paper discusses current modelling techniques in the residential sector: principally top-down and bottom-up. Top-down models work on a macro-economic basis and can be used to consider large scale economic changes; bottom-up models are detail rich to model technological changes. Bottom-up models demonstrate what is technically possible. However, there are differences between the technical potential and what is likely given the limited economic rationality of the typical householder. This paper recommends research to better understand individuals’ behaviour. Such research needs to include actual choices, stated preferences and opinion research to allow a detailed understanding of the individual end user. This increased understanding can then be used in an agent based model (ABM). In an ABM, agents are used to model real world actors and can be given a rule set intended to emulate the actions and behaviours of real people. This can help in understanding how new technologies diffuse. In this way a degree of micro-economic realism can be added to domestic carbon modelling. Such a model should then be of use for both forward projections of CO2 and to analyse the cost effectiveness of various policy measures.

The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns

This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.

Extracellular release of a heterologous phytase from roots of transgenic plants: does manipulation of rhizosphere biochemistry impact microbial community structure?

To maintain the sustainability of agriculture, it is imperative that the reliance of crops on inorganic phosphorus (P) fertilizers is reduced. One approach is to improve the ability of crop plants to acquire P from organic sources. Transgenic plants that produce microbial phytases have been suggested as a possible means to achieve this goal. However, neither the impact of heterologous expression of phytase on the ecology of microorganisms in the rhizosphere nor the impact of rhizosphere microorganisms on the efficacy of phytases in the rhizosphere of transgenic plants has been tested. In this paper, we demonstrate that the presence of rhizosphere microorganisms reduced the dependence of plants oil extracellular secretion of phytase from roots when grown in a P-deficient soil. Despite this, the expression of phytase in transgenic plants had little or no impact on the microbial community structure as compared with control plant lines, whereas soil treatments, such as the addition of inorganic P, had large effects. The results demonstrate that soil microorganisms are explicitly involved in the availability of P to plants and that the microbial community in the rhizosphere appears to be resistant to the impacts of single-gene changes in plants designed to alter rhizosphere biochemistry and nutrient cycling.

Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation.