Lyapunov exponents and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

It has recently been proposed that the broad spectrum of interannual variability in the tropics with a peak around four years results from an interaction between the linear low-frequency oscillatory mode of the coupled system and the nonlinear higher-frequency modes of the system. In this study we determine the Lyapunov exponents of the conceptual model consisting of a nonlinear low-order model coupled to a linear oscillator for various values of the coupling constants.

Regionalization of precipitation in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables - A fuzzy clustering approach

Delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions (regionalization) is necessary for investigating frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological droughts. The conventional methods of regionalization use statistics of precipitation as attributes to establish homogeneous regions. Therefore they cannot be used to form regions in ungauged areas, and they may not be useful to form meaningful regions in areas having sparse rain gauge density. Further, validation of the regions for homogeneity in precipitation is not possible, since the use of the precipitation statistics to form regions and subsequently to test the regional homogeneity is not appropriate. To alleviate this problem, an approach based on fuzzy cluster analysis is presented. It allows delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions in data sparse areas using large scale atmospheric variables (LSAV), which influence precipitation in the study area, as attributes. The LSAV, location parameters (latitude, longitude and altitude) and seasonality of precipitation are suggested as features for regionalization. The approach allows independent validation of the identified regions for homogeneity using statistics computed from the observed precipitation. Further it has the ability to form regions even in ungauged areas, owing to the use of attributes that can be reliably estimated even when no at-site precipitation data are available. The approach was applied to delineate homogeneous annual rainfall regions in India, and its effectiveness is illustrated by comparing the results with those obtained using rainfall statistics, regionalization based on hard cluster analysis, and meteorological sub-divisions in India. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy Clustering Based Ad Recommendation for TV Programs

Advertisements(Ads) are the main revenue earner for Television (TV) broadcasters. As TV reaches a large audience, it acts as the best media for advertisements of products and services. With the emergence of digital TV, it is important for the broadcasters to provide an intelligent service according to the various dimensions like program features, ad features, viewers’ interest and sponsors’ preference. We present an automatic ad recommendation algorithm that selects a set of ads by considering these dimensions and semantically match them with programs. Features of the ad video are captured interms of annotations and they are grouped into number of predefined semantic categories by using a categorization technique. Fuzzy categorical data clustering technique is applied on categorized data for selecting better suited ads for a particular program. Since the same ad can be recommended for more than one program depending upon multiple parameters, fuzzy clustering acts as the best suited method for ad recommendation. The relative fuzzy score called “degree of membership” calculated for each ad indicates the membership of a particular ad to different program clusters. Subjective evaluation of the algorithm is done by 10 different people and rated with a high success score.

Analysis of a linear one-dimensional active noise control system by means of block diagrams and transfer functions

In arriving at the ideal filter transfer function for an active noise control system in a duct, the effect of the auxiliary sources (generally loudspeakers) on the waves generated by the primary source has invariably been neglected in the existing literature, implying a rigid wall or infinite impedance. The present paper presents a fairly general analysis of a linear one-dimensional noise control system by means of block diagrams and transfer functions. It takes into account the passive as well as active role of a terminal primary source, wall-mounted auxiliary source, open duct radiation impedance, and the effects of mean flow and damping. It is proved that the pressure generated by a source against a load impedance can be looked upon as a sum of two pressure waves, one generated by the source against an anechoic termination and the other by reflecting the rearward wave (incident on the source) off the passive source impedance. Application of this concept is illustrated for both the types of sources. A concise closed-form expression for the ideal filter transfer function is thus derived and discussed. Finally, the dynamics of an adaptive noise control system is discussed briefly, relating its standing-wave variables and transfer functions with those of the progressive-wave model presented here.

A Refined Methodology for Durability-Based Service Life Estimation of Reinforced Concrete Structural Elements Considering Fuzzy and Random Uncertainties

A reliable method for service life estimation of the structural element is a prerequisite for service life design. A new methodology for durability-based service life estimation of reinforced concrete flexural elements with respect to chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement is proposed. The methodology takes into consideration the fuzzy and random uncertainties associated with the variables involved in service life estimation by using a hybrid method combining the vertex method of fuzzy set theory with Monte Carlo simulation technique. It is also shown how to determine the bounds for characteristic value of failure probability from the resulting fuzzy set for failure probability with minimal computational effort. Using the methodology, the bounds for the characteristic value of failure probability for a reinforced concrete T-beam bridge girder has been determined. The service life of the structural element is determined by comparing the upper bound of characteristic value of failure probability with the target failure probability. The methodology will be useful for durability-based service life design and also for making decisions regarding in-service inspections.

Application of UPFC for system security improvement under normal and network contingencies

Electric power systems are exposed to various contingencies. Network contingencies often contribute to over-loading of network branches, unsatisfactory voltages and also leading to problems of stability/voltage collapse. To maintain security of the systems, it is desirable to estimate the effect of contingencies and plan suitable measures to improve system security/stability. This paper presents an approach for selection of unified power flow controller (UPFC) suitable locations considering normal and network contingencies after evaluating the degree of severity of the contingencies. The ranking is evaluated using composite criteria based fuzzy logic for eliminating masking effect. The fuzzy approach, in addition to real power loadings and bus voltage violations, voltage stability indices at the load buses also used as the post-contingent quantities to evaluate the network contingency ranking. The selection of UPFC suitable locations uses the criteria on the basis of improved system security/stability. The proposed approach for selection of UPFC suitable locations has been tested under simulated conditions on a few power systems and the results for a 24-node real-life equivalent EHV power network and 39-node New England (modified) test system are presented for illustration purposes.