Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey

We examine monetary policy in the Euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the Euro area and suggest changes that would increase the correlation between words and actions; streamline the understanding that markets have of the policy process; and anchor expectation formation more strongly. We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area and in some potential member countries and try to infer the likely effects occurring when Turkey joins the EU first and the Euro area later. Much of the analysis here warns against having too high expectations of the economic gains that membership to the EU and Euro club will produce.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

Implications of dynamic trading for insurance markets

We study the interaction between insurance and capital markets within singlebut general framework.We show that capital markets greatly enhance the risksharing capacity of insurance markets and the scope of risks that areinsurable because efficiency does not depend on the number of agents atrisk, nor on risks being independent, nor on the preferences and endowmentsof agents at risk being the same. We show that agents share risks by buyingfull coverage for their individual risks and provide insurance capitalthrough stock markets.We show that aggregate risk enters private insuranceas positive loading on insurance prices and despite that agents will buyfull coverage. The loading is determined by the risk premium of investorsin the stock market and hence does not depend on the agent s willingnessto pay. Agents provide insurance capital by trading an equally weightedportfolio of insurance company shares and riskless asset. We are able toconstruct agents optimal trading strategies explicitly and for verygeneral preferences.

Asset pricing implications of benchmarking: A two-factor CAPM

In this paper we consider the equilibrium effects of an institutionalinvestor whose performance is benchmarked to an index. In a partialequilibrium setting, the objective of the institutional investor is modeledas the maximization of expected utility (an increasing and concave function,in order to accommodate risk aversion) of final wealth minus a benchmark.In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to the two-beta CAPM inBrennan (1993): together with the market beta a new risk-factor (that wecall active management risk) is brought into the analysis. This new betais deffined as the normalized (to the benchmark's variance) covariancebetween the asset excess return and the excess return of the market overthe benchmark index. Different to Brennan, the empirical test supports themodel's predictions. The cross-section return on the active management riskis positive and signifficant especially after 1990, when institutionalinvestors have become the representative agent of the market.

Melanoma cell expression of Fas(Apo-1/CD95) ligand: implications for tumor immune escape.

Malignant melanoma accounts for most of the increasing mortality from skin cancer. Melanoma cells were found to express Fas (also called Apo-1 or CD95) ligand (FasL). In metastatic lesions, Fas-expressing T cell infiltrates were proximal to FasL+ tumor cells. In vitro, apoptosis of Fas-sensitive target cells occurred upon incubation with melanoma tumor cells; and in vivo, injection of FasL+ mouse melanoma cells in mice led to rapid tumor formation. In contrast, tumorigenesis was delayed in Fas-deficient lpr mutant mice in which immune effector cells cannot be killed by FasL. Thus, FasL may contribute to the immune privilege of tumors.

Spatial evaluation of larvae of Culicidae (Diptera) from different breeding sites: application of a geospatial method and implications for vector control

Spatial evaluation of Culicidae (Diptera) larvae from different breeding sites: application of a geospatial method and implications for vector control. This study investigates the spatial distribution of urban Culicidae and informs entomological monitoring of species that use artificial containers as larval habitats. Collections of mosquito larvae were conducted in the São Paulo State municipality of Santa Bárbara d' Oeste between 2004 and 2006 during house-to-house visits. A total of 1,891 samples and nine different species were sampled. Species distribution was assessed using the kriging statistical method by extrapolating municipal administrative divisions. The sampling method followed the norms of the municipal health services of the Ministry of Health and can thus be adopted by public health authorities in disease control and delimitation of risk areas. Moreover, this type of survey and analysis can be employed for entomological surveillance of urban vectors that use artificial containers as larval habitat.

Homéostasie, marqueurs somatiques et intentionnalité : le statut de la représentation et ses implications en psychanalyse et en neuroscience

Résumé : Si la psychanalyse est régulièrement remise en cause pour son manque de fondement scientifique, de nombreux travaux issus des neurosciences en appellent paradoxalement à un retour aux thèses freudiennes. Cette étude se propose, dans ce contexte, de revisiter les bases neurobiologiques de la métapsychologie et de montrer comment celle-ci repose sur une conception homéostatique du vivant. On en tire plusieurs conséquences. Premièrement, contre Brentano, selon qui l'intentionnalité est la marque du psychologique, on propose que celle-ci s'avère être, plus originellement, la marque des régulations biologiques. Deuxièmement, on montre comment Freud et Damasio développent des conceptions similaires sur le fonctionnement homéostatique de la cognition. Sur le plan épistémologique, on plaide en faveur de la complémentarité de ces deux approches. Si Damasio met au jour les variables somatiques permettant de mesurer les effets de la vie psychique, la théorie pulsionnelle permet de dépasser les problèmes liés à l'ambiguïté de la notion de «représentation cérébrale ». C'est à partir de cette thèse que l'on peut, selon nous, appréhender la psychanalyse comme un double projet visant à articuler une naturalisation de l'appareil psychique à une herméneutique de ses productions. On considère cette double visée comme une réponse à la difficulté centrale que rencontrent les sciences de l'esprit quant aux conditions de possibilité d'une naturalisation de l'intentionnalité. A partir de cette problématique, il devient pertinent d'évaluer la solution freudienne à la lumière de la posture intentionnelle dennettienne et de la théorie gazzaniguienne de l'interpreter. II ne s'agit pas, selon ces dernières approches, de naturaliser directement l'intentionnalité, au risque de commettre une erreur de catégorie. Il est question, au contraire, d'utiliser les principes du fonctionnement homéostatique comme autant de «règles »interprétatives permettant, sur le plan psychologique, de construire du sens. On trouve enfin dans le modèle de l'espace global de travail un moyen de remettre au goût du jour la conception freudienne, dynamique et conflictuelle, du fonctionnement psychique. On avance enfin, à partir de ce modèle, des hypothèses sur les mécanismes cérébraux susceptibles de sous-tendre l'efficacité thérapeutique de la cure analytique. Abstract : While Psychoanalysis' scientific basis is open to question, some neuroscience works are paradoxically calling for a return to Freud. Therefore, the first aim of our study consists in revisiting metapychology's neurobiological roots and to show how it is grounded on a homeostatic theory of life. Several consequences can be drawn from this statement. Firstly, in opposition to Brentanian definition of intentionality, as the specific mark of psychology, we argue that it is more specifically the mark of biological balance. Secondly, this statement allows to show how Freud's and Damasio's theories share common views on the homeostatic functioning of cognition. From an epistemological point of view, they complete one another. If Damasio has highlighted the measurable somatic variables from which we can infer psychic life, the theory of drives allows conceptual difficulties linked to the use of the ambiguous notion of "cerebral representation" to be overcome. According to us, this thesis leads psychoanalysis to be approached as a twin project aiming to articulate psyche naturalization, to a hermeneutic of its productions. It maybe seen as a way to respond to the central issue of mind sciences, that is, to account for the naturalization of intentionality. Given this theoretical framework, it seems relevant to reconsider freudism in the light of the dennettian intentional stance and the gazzanigan theory of interpreter. Then, freudism can be seen as a way to avoid a category mistake. Its solution rejects direct intentionality naturalization in favor of a construction of sense. In this framework, interpretation is regulated by the rules abstracted from the homeostatic functioning of life. Furthermore, we show how the dynamic and conflictual Freudian psyche can be evaluated using the Global workspace model, which allows us to put forth hypotheses on the cerebral mechanisms that may underlie the efficiency of analytical cure.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Record of postmortem injuries caused by the Neotropical social wasp Agelaia fulvofasciata (Degeer) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae) on pig carcasses in the Eastern Amazon region: implications in forensic taphonomy

ABSTRACTPostmortem injuries are a source of misinterpretations in forensic analysis and therefore are subject matter of taphonomic interest. Many types of injuries can cause different artifacts, which deserve attention of the forensic pathologists when evaluating corpses, either at the crime scene or during an autopsy. Insects can be important biotaphonomic agents and their activity may result in artifacts that resemble antemortem injuries. Here, we describe postmortem injuries caused by the Neotropical wasp Agelaia fulvofasciata (Degeer, 1773) on domestic pig carcasses weighting 15 kg. The specimens showed extensive injuries to the lower lip, similar to lacerations, and some minor lesions on the snout and anus. In addition, we observed the same wasp species preying on larvae of Sarcophagidae (Peckia sp.). Besides causing postmortem injuries, the ability of this species to detect carcasses in the early and fresh decomposition stages should be noted. Thus, future applications aiming criminal, any biotaphonomic events caused by carrion insects need to be disclosed.

Stable isotope compositions of mammoth teeth from Niederweningen, Switzerland: Implications for the Late Pleistocene climate, environment, and diet

Oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of well-preserved mammoth teeth from the Middle Wurmian (40-70 ka) peat layer of Niederweningen, the most important mammoth site in Switzerland, were analysed to reconstruct Late Pleistocene palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Drinking water (delta(18)O values of approximately -12.3 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand were calculated front oxygen isotope compositions of mammoth tooth enamel apatite using a species-specific calibration for modern elephants. These delta(18)O(H2O) values reflect the mean oxygen isotope composition of the palaeo-precipitation and are similar to those directly measured for fate Pleistocene groundwater from aquifers in northern Switzerland and southern Germany. Using a present-day delta(18)O(H2)o-precipitation-air temperature relation for Switzerland, a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of around 4.3 +/- 2.1 degrees C can be calculated for the Middle Wurmian at this site. This MAT is in good agreement with palaeotemperature estimates on the basis of Middle Wurmian groundwater recharge temperatures and beetle assemblages. Hence, the climatic conditions in this region were around 4 degrees C cooler during the Middle Wurmian interstadial phase, around 45-50ka BP, than they are today. During this period the mammoths from Niederweningen lived in an open tundra-like, C(3) plant-dominated environment as indicated by enamel (delta(13)C values of -11.5 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand and pollen and macroplant fossils found in the embedding peat. The low variability of enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O values from different mammoth teeth reflects similar environmental conditions and supports a relatively small time frame for the fossil assemblage. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Interactions between respiration and systemic hemodynamics. Part II: practical implications in critical care.

In Part I of this review, we have covered basic concepts regarding cardiorespiratory interactions. Here, we put this theoretical framework to practical use. We describe mechanisms underlying Kussmaul's sign and pulsus paradoxus. We review the literature on the use of respiratory variations of blood pressure to evaluate volume status. We show the possibilities of attaining the latter aim by investigating with ultrasonography how the geometry of great veins fluctuates with respiration. We provide a Guytonian analysis of the effects of PEEP on cardiac output. We terminate with some remarks on the potential of positive pressure breathing to induce acute cor pulmonale, and on the cardiovascular mechanisms that at times may underly the failure to wean a patient from the ventilator.

Paleobiology and skeletochronology of Jurassic dinosaurs: implications from the histology and oxygen isotope compositions of bones

Fossil biogenic phosphate of fast-growing primary bone tissue of dinosaurs can preserve a histologic and isotopic time-series of annual seasonality in temperature variations, similar to tooth enamel and other accretionary skeletal phases such as corals or wood. On two bone fragments from sympatric dinosaurs with different histologic patterns of bone growth, high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles were analyzed along the radial direction of bone growth. The investigated specimens are from the Jurassic Shishugou Formation in the Junggar Basin, NW China and have distinct patterns of compositional variation. A fibrolamellar dinosaur bone with multiple lines of arrested growth (LAGs) and periodic growth cycles of decreasing bone laminae thickness displays a cyclic intra-bone variation in delta(18)O values of about 2parts per thousand corresponding with the LAGs. These growth cycles in fast-growing fibrolamellar bone provide evidence for seasonal growth of dinosaurs in lower latitudes ( similar to 45degreesN), possibly influenced by a monsoon-type paleoclimate. Seasonal changes in temperature and water supply are consistent with the oxygen isotope composition measured in dinosaur bone phosphate as well as with growth rings in contemporaneous fossil conifer wood from the same locality. In contrast, a plexiform sympatric sauropod bone displays continuous growth, free of LAGs and has a lower intra-bone variation of less than or equal to 0.8parts per thousand. Differences in bone histology are also reflected in the oxygen isotopic composition and its intra-bone variability, indicating different physiological responses to external climatic stress between sympatric dinosaur species. Seasonal intra-bone oxygen isotope variations combined with bone histology may thus yield new insights into species-specific response to climatic stress and its influence on dinosaur growth, formation of growth marks, growth rates, as welt as dinosaur thermophysiology. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Selectively expanding subsets of T cells in mice by injection of interleukin-2/antibody complexes: implications for transplantation tolerance.

The biological activity of interleukin (IL)-2 and other cytokines in vivo can be augmented by binding to certain anti-cytokine monoclonal antibodies (mAb). Here, we review evidence on how IL-2/anti-IL-2 mAb complexes can be used to cause selective stimulation and expansion of certain T-cell subsets. With some anti-IL-2 mAbs, injection of IL-2/mAb complexes leads to expansion of CD8 T effector cells but not CD4 T regulatory cells (Tregs); these complexes exert less adverse side effects than soluble IL-2 and display powerful antitumor activity. Other IL-2/mAb complexes have minimal effects on CD8 T cells but cause marked expansion of Tregs. Preconditioning mice with these complexes leads to permanent acceptance of MHC-disparate pancreatic islets in the absence of immunosuppression.