The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Reply to comment on `Integrable Kondo impurity in one-dimensional q-deformed t - J models

This is a reply to the comment by P Schlottmann and A A Zvyagin.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Synthesis of fluorinated 2-phenyl-4-quinolones from pyrrole-2,3-diones

A series of substituted 2-phenyl-4-quinolones 8-11 have been synthesized in good yields via ash vacuum thermolysis (FVT) of 1-aryl-4-cyano-5-phenylpyrrole-2,3-diones 7a-e and 1-aryl-4-methoxycarbonyl-5-phenylpyrrole-2,3-diones 7f-j. The pyrrolediones 7 were prepared from amines 3 and benzoylacetonitriles 5a-e or methyl 3-arylamino-3-phenylprop-2-enoates 5f-j.

Total synthesis and absolute stereochemistry of plakortone D

The first total synthesis of plakortone D is described and thereby establishes the structure and absolute stereochemistry of the most biologically active member of the marine-derived plakortone family. The sterically congested bicyclic lactone core results from a Pd(II)-induced hydroxycyclization−carbonylation−lactonization sequence on an enediol whose chirality was installed by AD-technology. Attachment of the side chain, also constructed using AD-methodology, was achieved by using a modified Julia coupling. The described approach enables acquisition of other plakortones and analogues, in the correct (natural) stereochemical series.

Synthesis and structural properties of patellamide a derivatives and their copper(II) compounds

The synthesis, characterization and copper(II) coordination chemistry of three new cyclic peptide ligands, PatJ(1) (cyclo-(Ile -Thr- (Gly)Thz-lle-Thr(Gly)Thz)), PatJ(2) (cyclo-(Ile-Thr(Gly)Thz-(D)-Ile-Thr-(Gly)Thz)), and PatL (cyclo-(Ile-Ser-(Gly)Thz-Ile-Ser(Gly)Thz)) are reported. All of these cyclic peptides and PatN (cyclo-(Ile-Ser(Gly)Thz-Ile-Thr-(Gly)Thz)) are derivatives of patellamide A and have a [24]azacrown-8 macrocyclic structure. All four synthetic cyclic peptides have two thiazole rings but, in contrast to patellamide A, no oxazoline rings. The molecular structure of PatJ1, determined by X-ray crystallography, has a saddle conformation with two close-to-co-parallel thiazole rings, very similar to the geometry of patellamide D. The two coordination sites of PatJ1 with thiazole-N and amide-N donors are each well preorganized for transition metal ion binding. The coordination of copper(II) was monitored by UV/Vis spectroscopy, and this reveals various (meta)stable mono- and dinuclear copper(II) complexes whose stoichiometry was confirmed by mass spectra. Two types of dinuclear copper(II) complexes, [Cu-2(H4L)(OH2)(n)](2+) (n = 6, 8) and [Cu-2(H4L)(OH2)(n)] (n=4, 6; L=PatN, PatL, PatJ1, PatJ2) have been identified and analyzed structurally by EPR spectroscopy and a combination of spectra simulations and molecular mechanics calculations (MM-EPR). The four structures are similar to each other and have a saddle conformation, that is, derived from the crystal structure of PatJ(1) by a twist of the two thiozole rings. The small but significant structural differences are characterized by the EPR simulations.

Medium ring ethers by ring expansion-ring contraction: Synthesis of lauthisan

[GRAPHICS] A new general method for the construction of medium ring ethers has been developed. This involves the ring expansion of halo-O,S-acetals followed by a Ramburg-Backlund ring contraction reaction with concomitant extrusion of the sulfur atom. This methodology has been utilized for the synthesis of cis- and trans-lauthisan.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Hydrolytic kinetic resolution of terminal mono- and bis-epoxides in the synthesis of insect pheromones: routes to (-)-(R)- and (+)-(S)-10-methyldodecyl acetate, (-)-(R)-10-methyl-2-tridecanone, (-)-(R)-(Z)-undec-6-en-2-ol (Nostrenol), (-)-(1R,7R)-1,7-dime

Hydrolytic kinetic resolution (HKR) of functionalised epoxides using (salen)Co(OAc) complexes provides enantiomerically enriched epoxides and diols, which have been transformed into important insect sex pheromones. In this general approach, (-)-(R)- and (+)-(S)-10-methyldodecyl acetates from the smaller tea tortrix moth were obtained, as was (-)-(R)-10-methyltridecan-2-one from the southern corn rootworm. The (S)-epoxide obtained from undec-1-en-6-yne was transformed to (-)-(R)-(Z)-undec-6-en-2-ol (Nostrenol) from ant-lions. HKR of appropriate bisepoxides was also investigated, and transformations of the resulting bisepoxides and epoxydiols provided (-)-(1R,7R)-1,7-dimethylnonylpropanoate from corn rootworms, (-)-(6R,12R)-6,12-dimethylpentadecan-2-one from the female banded cucumber beetle, and (-)-(2S,11S)-2,11-diacetoxytridecane and (+)-(2S,12S)-2,12-diacetoxytridecane from female pea-midges. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).