Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.

Foreign Direct Investment, Clean Development Mechanism, and Environmental Management: A case of Sub-Saharan Africa

This doctoral dissertation explores the contribution of environmental management practices, the so-called clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in achieving sustainable development in developing countries, particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa. Because the climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most serious global environmental challenges, the main focus is on the causal links between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the dissertation investigates the factors that have affected the distribution of CDM projects in developing countries and the relationships between FDI and other macroeconomic variables of interest. The main contribution of the dissertation is empirical. One of the publications uses crosssectional data and Tobit and Poisson regressions. Three of the studies use time-series data and vector autoregressive and vector error correction models, while two publications use panel data and panel data estimation methods. One of the publications uses thus both timeseries and panel data. The concept of Granger causality is utilized in four of the publications. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the Granger causality relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and FDI in different countries. It appears also that the causality relationships change over time. Furthermore, the results support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis but only for some of the countries. As to CDM activities, past emission levels, institutional quality, and the size of the host country appear to be among the significant determinants of the distribution of CDM projects. FDI and exports are also found to be significant determinants of economic growth.

Design and Material Selection of High-Speed Rotating Electrical Machines

The increasing emphasis on energy efficiency is starting to yield results in the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions; however, the effort is still far from sufficient. Therefore, new technical solutions that will enhance the efficiency of power generation systems are required to maintain the sustainable growth rate, without spoiling the environment. A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is only possible with new low-carbon technologies, which enable high efficiencies. The role of the rotating electrical machine development is significant in the reduction of global emissions. A high proportion of the produced and consumed electrical energy is related to electrical machines. One of the technical solutions that enables high system efficiency on both the energy production and consumption sides is high-speed electrical machines. This type of electrical machines has a high system overall efficiency, a small footprint, and a high power density compared with conventional machines. Therefore, high-speed electrical machines are favoured by the manufacturers producing, for example, microturbines, compressors, gas compression applications, and air blowers. High-speed machine technology is challenging from the design point of view, and a lot of research is in progress both in academia and industry regarding the solution development. The solid technical basis is of importance in order to make an impact in the industry considering the climate change. This work describes the multidisciplinary design principles and material development in high-speed electrical machines. First, high-speed permanent magnet synchronous machines with six slots, two poles, and tooth-coil windings are discussed in this doctoral dissertation. These machines have unique features, which help in solving rotordynamic problems and reducing the manufacturing costs. Second, the materials for the high-speed machines are discussed in this work. The materials are among the key limiting factors in electrical machines, and to overcome this limit, an in-depth analysis of the material properties and behavior is required. Moreover, high-speed machines are sometimes operating in a harsh environment because they need to be as close as possible to the rotating tool and fully exploit their advantages. This sets extra requirements for the materials applied.

Exploring the experiences of male spousal caregivers for their wives with alzheimer disease in their homes : the lived experience and the men's perception of support groups /

This research is qualitative in nature and has explored, by means of interviews, the '^^ experiences of 10 men in their roles in caring for their spouses with Alzheimer Disease (see glossary) in their homes. Additional data were collected by attending 3 formal support group meetings and one informal meeting of a group of men who brought their wives to a support group meeting for their wives with AD. The data retrieved supported the assumption that education about the disease, utilization of formal community support services, and attendance at caregiver support groups or programs can assist healthy male caregivers in caring for their wives with AD in their homes.

Apprentissage de représentations sur-complètes par entraînement d’auto-encodeurs

Les avancés dans le domaine de l’intelligence artificielle, permettent à des systèmes informatiques de résoudre des tâches de plus en plus complexes liées par exemple à la vision, à la compréhension de signaux sonores ou au traitement de la langue. Parmi les modèles existants, on retrouve les Réseaux de Neurones Artificiels (RNA), dont la popularité a fait un grand bond en avant avec la découverte de Hinton et al. [22], soit l’utilisation de Machines de Boltzmann Restreintes (RBM) pour un pré-entraînement non-supervisé couche après couche, facilitant grandement l’entraînement supervisé du réseau à plusieurs couches cachées (DBN), entraînement qui s’avérait jusqu’alors très difficile à réussir. Depuis cette découverte, des chercheurs ont étudié l’efficacité de nouvelles stratégies de pré-entraînement, telles que l’empilement d’auto-encodeurs traditionnels(SAE) [5, 38], et l’empilement d’auto-encodeur débruiteur (SDAE) [44]. C’est dans ce contexte qu’a débuté la présente étude. Après un bref passage en revue des notions de base du domaine de l’apprentissage machine et des méthodes de pré-entraînement employées jusqu’à présent avec les modules RBM, AE et DAE, nous avons approfondi notre compréhension du pré-entraînement de type SDAE, exploré ses différentes propriétés et étudié des variantes de SDAE comme stratégie d’initialisation d’architecture profonde. Nous avons ainsi pu, entre autres choses, mettre en lumière l’influence du niveau de bruit, du nombre de couches et du nombre d’unités cachées sur l’erreur de généralisation du SDAE. Nous avons constaté une amélioration de la performance sur la tâche supervisée avec l’utilisation des bruits poivre et sel (PS) et gaussien (GS), bruits s’avérant mieux justifiés que celui utilisé jusqu’à présent, soit le masque à zéro (MN). De plus, nous avons démontré que la performance profitait d’une emphase imposée sur la reconstruction des données corrompues durant l’entraînement des différents DAE. Nos travaux ont aussi permis de révéler que le DAE était en mesure d’apprendre, sur des images naturelles, des filtres semblables à ceux retrouvés dans les cellules V1 du cortex visuel, soit des filtres détecteurs de bordures. Nous aurons par ailleurs pu montrer que les représentations apprises du SDAE, composées des caractéristiques ainsi extraites, s’avéraient fort utiles à l’apprentissage d’une machine à vecteurs de support (SVM) linéaire ou à noyau gaussien, améliorant grandement sa performance de généralisation. Aussi, nous aurons observé que similairement au DBN, et contrairement au SAE, le SDAE possédait une bonne capacité en tant que modèle générateur. Nous avons également ouvert la porte à de nouvelles stratégies de pré-entraînement et découvert le potentiel de l’une d’entre elles, soit l’empilement d’auto-encodeurs rebruiteurs (SRAE).

A brain-computer interface for navigation in virtual reality

L'interface cerveau-ordinateur (ICO) décode les signaux électriques du cerveau requise par l’électroencéphalographie et transforme ces signaux en commande pour contrôler un appareil ou un logiciel. Un nombre limité de tâches mentales ont été détectés et classifier par différents groupes de recherche. D’autres types de contrôle, par exemple l’exécution d'un mouvement du pied, réel ou imaginaire, peut modifier les ondes cérébrales du cortex moteur. Nous avons utilisé un ICO pour déterminer si nous pouvions faire une classification entre la navigation de type marche avant et arrière, en temps réel et en temps différé, en utilisant différentes méthodes. Dix personnes en bonne santé ont participé à l’expérience sur les ICO dans un tunnel virtuel. L’expérience fut a était divisé en deux séances (48 min chaque). Chaque séance comprenait 320 essais. On a demandé au sujets d’imaginer un déplacement avant ou arrière dans le tunnel virtuel de façon aléatoire d’après une commande écrite sur l'écran. Les essais ont été menés avec feedback. Trois électrodes ont été montées sur le scalp, vis-à-vis du cortex moteur. Durant la 1re séance, la classification des deux taches (navigation avant et arrière) a été réalisée par les méthodes de puissance de bande, de représentation temporel-fréquence, des modèles autorégressifs et des rapports d’asymétrie du rythme β avec classificateurs d’analyse discriminante linéaire et SVM. Les seuils ont été calculés en temps différé pour former des signaux de contrôle qui ont été utilisés en temps réel durant la 2e séance afin d’initier, par les ondes cérébrales de l'utilisateur, le déplacement du tunnel virtuel dans le sens demandé. Après 96 min d'entrainement, la méthode « online biofeedback » de la puissance de bande a atteint une précision de classification moyenne de 76 %, et la classification en temps différé avec les rapports d’asymétrie et puissance de bande, a atteint une précision de classification d’environ 80 %.

Scoliosis curve type classification from 3D trunk image

Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a deformity of the spine manifested by asymmetry and deformities of the external surface of the trunk. Classification of scoliosis deformities according to curve type is used to plan management of scoliosis patients. Currently, scoliosis curve type is determined based on X-ray exam. However, cumulative exposure to X-rays radiation significantly increases the risk for certain cancer. In this paper, we propose a robust system that can classify the scoliosis curve type from non invasive acquisition of 3D trunk surface of the patients. The 3D image of the trunk is divided into patches and local geometric descriptors characterizing the surface of the back are computed from each patch and forming the features. We perform the reduction of the dimensionality by using Principal Component Analysis and 53 components were retained. In this work a multi-class classifier is built with Least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) which is a kernel classifier. For this study, a new kernel was designed in order to achieve a robust classifier in comparison with polynomial and Gaussian kernel. The proposed system was validated using data of 103 patients with different scoliosis curve types diagnosed and classified by an orthopedic surgeon from the X-ray images. The average rate of successful classification was 93.3% with a better rate of prediction for the major thoracic and lumbar/thoracolumbar types.

Prediction of Learning Disabilities in School Age Children using SVM and Decision Tree

This paper highlights the prediction of Learning Disabilities (LD) in school-age children using two classification methods, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT), with an emphasis on applications of data mining. About 10% of children enrolled in school have a learning disability. Learning disability prediction in school age children is a very complicated task because it tends to be identified in elementary school where there is no one sign to be identified. By using any of the two classification methods, SVM and DT, we can easily and accurately predict LD in any child. Also, we can determine the merits and demerits of these two classifiers and the best one can be selected for the use in the relevant field. In this study, Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) algorithm is used in performing SVM and J48 algorithm is used in constructing decision trees.

A Trainable Object Detection System: Car Detection in Static Images

This paper describes a general, trainable architecture for object detection that has previously been applied to face and peoplesdetection with a new application to car detection in static images. Our technique is a learning based approach that uses a set of labeled training data from which an implicit model of an object class -- here, cars -- is learned. Instead of pixel representations that may be noisy and therefore not provide a compact representation for learning, our training images are transformed from pixel space to that of Haar wavelets that respond to local, oriented, multiscale intensity differences. These feature vectors are then used to train a support vector machine classifier. The detection of cars in images is an important step in applications such as traffic monitoring, driver assistance systems, and surveillance, among others. We show several examples of car detection on out-of-sample images and show an ROC curve that highlights the performance of our system.

Sparse Correlation Kernel Analysis and Reconstruction

This paper presents a new paradigm for signal reconstruction and superresolution, Correlation Kernel Analysis (CKA), that is based on the selection of a sparse set of bases from a large dictionary of class- specific basis functions. The basis functions that we use are the correlation functions of the class of signals we are analyzing. To choose the appropriate features from this large dictionary, we use Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression and compare this to traditional Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for the tasks of signal reconstruction, superresolution, and compression. The testbed we use in this paper is a set of images of pedestrians. This paper also presents results of experiments in which we use a dictionary of multiscale basis functions and then use Basis Pursuit De-Noising to obtain a sparse, multiscale approximation of a signal. The results are analyzed and we conclude that 1) when used with a sparse representation technique, the correlation function is an effective kernel for image reconstruction and superresolution, 2) for image compression, PCA and SVM have different tradeoffs, depending on the particular metric that is used to evaluate the results, 3) in sparse representation techniques, L_1 is not a good proxy for the true measure of sparsity, L_0, and 4) the L_epsilon norm may be a better error metric for image reconstruction and compression than the L_2 norm, though the exact psychophysical metric should take into account high order structure in images.

On the V(subscript gamma) Dimension for Regression in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

This paper presents a computation of the $V_gamma$ dimension for regression in bounded subspaces of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) for the Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression $epsilon$-insensitive loss function, and general $L_p$ loss functions. Finiteness of the RV_gamma$ dimension is shown, which also proves uniform convergence in probability for regression machines in RKHS subspaces that use the $L_epsilon$ or general $L_p$ loss functions. This paper presenta a novel proof of this result also for the case that a bias is added to the functions in the RKHS.

University Logo in Vector and Raster

This is a selection of University of Southampton Logos in both vector (svg) and raster (png) formats. These are suitable for use on the web or in small documents and posters. You can open the SVG files using inkscape (http://inkscape.org/download/?lang=en) and edit them directly. The University logo should not be modified and attention should be paid to the branding guidelines found here: http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/10481 You must always leave a space the width of an capital O in Southampton on all 4 edges of the logo. The negative space makes it appear more prominently on the page.

University Logo in Vector and Raster (Smoother Version)

These are a range of logos created in the same way as Mr Patrick McSweeny http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/11157. The logo has been extracted from PDF documents and is smoother and accurate to the original logo design. Many thanks to to McSweeny for publishing the logo, in SVG originally, I struggled to find it anywhere else. Files are in Inkscape SVG, PDF and PNG. From Mr Patrick McSweeney: This is a selection of University of Southampton Logos in both vector (svg) and raster (png) formats. These are suitable for use on the web or in small documents and posters. You can open the SVG files using inkscape (http://inkscape.org/download/?lang=en) and edit them directly. The University logo should not be modified and attention should be paid to the branding guidelines found here: http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/10481 You must always leave a space the width of an capital O in Southampton on all 4 edges of the logo. The negative space makes it appear more prominently on the page.

Strategies, effectiveness and rationale of vector-borne disease control in the pastoralist system of south-western Uganda

In Uganda, control of vector-borne diseases is mainly in form of vector control, and chemotherapy. There have been reports that acaricides are being misused in the pastoralist systems in Uganda. This is because of the belief by scientists that intensive application of acaricide is uneconomical and unsustainable particularly in the indigenous cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the strategies, rationale and effectiveness of vector-borne disease control by pastoralists. To systematically carry out these investigations, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was used, in both the collection and the analysis of data. Cattle keepers were found to control tick-borne diseases (TBDs) mainly through spraying, in contrast with the control of trypanosomosis for which the main method of control was by chemotherapy. The majority of herders applied acaricides weekly and used an acaricide of lower strength than recommended by the manufacturers. They used very little acaricide wash, and spraying was preferred to dipping. Furthermore, pastoralists either treated sick animals themselves or did nothing at all, rather than using veterinary personnel. Oxytetracycline (OTC) was the drug commonly used in the treatment of TBDs. Nevertheless, although pastoralists may not have been following recommended practices in their control of ticks and tick-borne diseases, they were neither wasteful nor uneconomical and their methods appeared to be effective. Trypanosomosis was not a problem either in Sembabule or Mbarara district. Those who used trypanocides were found to use more drugs than were necessary.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting the functional consequences of amino-acid polymorphisms

Genetic polymorphisms in deoxyribonucleic acid coding regions may have a phenotypic effect on the carrier, e.g. by influencing susceptibility to disease. Detection of deleterious mutations via association studies is hampered by the large number of candidate sites; therefore methods are needed to narrow down the search to the most promising sites. For this, a possible approach is to use structural and sequence-based information of the encoded protein to predict whether a mutation at a particular site is likely to disrupt the functionality of the protein itself. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) model for supervised learning in this context and assess its predictive performance by using data from mutagenesis experiments on lac repressor and lysozyme proteins. In these experiments, about 12 amino-acid substitutions were performed at each native amino-acid position and the effect on protein functionality was assessed. The training data thus consist of repeated observations at each position, which the hierarchical framework is needed to account for. The model is trained on the lac repressor data and tested on the lysozyme mutations and vice versa. In particular, we show that the hierarchical BMARS model, by allowing for the clustered nature of the data, yields lower out-of-sample misclassification rates compared with both a BMARS and a frequen-tist MARS model, a support vector machine classifier and an optimally pruned classification tree.