A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Slow crack growth and reliability of dental ceramics

Objective. To determine the slow crack growth (SCG) and Weibull parameters of five dental ceramics: a vitreous porcelain (V), a leucite-based porcelain (D), a leucite-based glass-ceramic (E1), a lithium disilicate glass-ceramic (E2) and a glass-infiltrated alumina composite (IC). Methods. Eighty disks (empty set 12mm x 1.1mm thick) of each material were constructed according to manufacturers` recommendations and polished. The stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient (n) was obtained by dynamic fatigue test, and specimens were tested in biaxial flexure at five stress rates immersed in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C. Weibull parameters were calculated for the 30 specimens tested at 1MPa/s in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C. The 80 specimens were distributed as follows: 10 for each stress rate (10(-2), 10(-1), 10(1), 10(2) MPa/s), 10 for inert strength (10(2) MPa/s, silicon oil) and 30 for 10(0) MPa/s. Fractographic analysis was also performed to investigate the fracture origin. Results. E2 showed the lowest slow crack growth susceptibility coefficient (17.2), followed by D (20.4) and V (26.3). E1 and IC presented the highest n values (30.1 and 31.1, respectively). Porcelain V presented the lowest Weibull modulus (5.2). All other materials showed similar Weibull modulus values, ranging from 9.4 to 11.7. Fractographic analysis indicated that for porcelain D, glass-ceramics E1 and E2, and composite IC crack deflection was the main toughening mechanism. Significance. This study provides a detailed microstructural and slow crack growth characterization of widely used dental ceramics. This is important from a clinical standpoint to assist the clinician in choosing the best ceramic material for each situation as well as predicting its clinical longevity. It also can be helpful in developing new materials for dental prostheses. (c) 2010 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of leucite content on slow crack growth of dental porcelains

Objectives. To determine the stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, n, of seven dental porcelains (A: Ceramco I; B: Ceramco-II; C: Ceramco-III; D: d.Sign; E: Cerabien; F: Vitadur-Alpha; and G: Ultropaline) after aging in air or artificial saliva, and correlate results with leucite content (LC). Methods. Bars were fired according to manufacturers` instructions and polished before induction of cracks by a Vickers indenter (19.6 N, 20 s). Four specimens were stored in air/room temperature, and three in saliva/37 degrees C. Five indentations were made per specimen and crack lengths measured at the following times: similar to 0; 1; 3; 10; 30; 100; 300; 1000 and 3000 h. The stress corrosion coefficient n was calculated by linear regression analysis after plotting crack length as a function of time, considering that the slope of the curve was (2/(3n + 2)]. Microstructural analysis was performed to determine LC. Results. LC of the porcelains were 22% (A and B); 6% (C); 15% (D); 0% (E and F); and 13% (G). Except for porcelains A and D, all materials showed a decrease in their n values when stored in artificial saliva. However, the decrease was more pronounced for porcelains B, F, and G. Ranking of materials varied according to storage media (in air, porcelain G showed higher n compared to A, while in saliva both showed similar coefficients). No correlation was found between n values and LC in air or saliva. Significance. Storage media influenced the n value obtained for most of the materials. LC did not affect resistance to slow crack growth regardless of the test environment. (c) 2008 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of pH on slow crack growth of dental porcelains

Objectives. To evaluate the effect of pH of storage medium on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters of dental porcelains. Methods. Two porcelains were selected: with (UD) and without (VM7) leucite particles, in order to assess if the microstructure would affect the response of the material to the pH variation. Disc specimens were produced following manufacturers` instructions. Specimens were stored in artificial saliva in pHs 3.5, 7.0 or 10.0 for 10 days and after that the fatigue parameters (n: SCG susceptibility coefficient and sigma(0): scaling parameter) were obtained by the dynamic fatigue test using the same pH of storage. Microstructural analysis of the materials was also performed. Results. For VM7, the values of n obtained in the different pHs were similar and varied from 29.9 to 31.2. The sigma(0) value obtained in pH 7.0 for VM7 was higher than that obtained in the other pHs, which were similar. For porcelain UD, n values obtained in pHs 7.0 and 10.0 were similar (40.8 and 39.6, respectively), and higher than that obtained in pH 3.5 (26.5). With respect to sigma(0), the value obtained for porcelain UD in pH 10.0 was lower than those obtained in pHs 3.5 and 7.0, which were similar. Significance. The effect of pH on the stress corrosion susceptibility (n) depended on the porcelain studied. While the n value of VM7 was not affected by the pH, UD presented lower n value in acid pH. For both porcelains, storage in acid or basic pH resulted in strength degradation. (C) 2007 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.

Evaluation of proximal caries in images resulting from different modes of radiographic digitalization

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the performances of observers in diagnosing proximal caries in digital images obtained from digital bitewing radiographs using two scanners and four digital cameras in Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) and tagged image file format (TIFF) files, and comparing them with the original conventional radiographs. Method: In total, 56 extracted teeth were radiographed with Kodak Insight film (Eastman Kodak, Rochester, NY) in a Kaycor Yoshida X-ray device (Kaycor X-707;Yoshida Dental Manufacturing Co., Tokyo, Japan) operating at 70 kV and 7 mA with an exposure time of 0.40 s. The radiographs were obtained and scanned by CanonScan D646U (Canon USA Inc., Newport News, VA) and Genius ColorPage HR7X (KYE Systems Corp. America, Doral, FL) scanners, and by Canon Powershot G2 (Canon USA Inc.), Canon RebelXT (Canon USA Inc.), Nikon Coolpix 8700 (Nikon Inc., Melville, NY), and Nikon D70s (Nikon Inc.) digital cameras in JPEG and TIFF formats. Three observers evaluated the images. The teeth were then observed under the microscope in polarized light for the verification of the presence and depth of the carious lesions. Results: The probability of no diagnosis ranged from 1.34% (Insight film) to 52.83% (CanonScan/JPEG). The sensitivity ranged from 0.24 (Canon RebelXT/JPEG) to 0.53 (Insight film), the specificity ranged from 0.93 (Nikon Coolpix/JPEG, Canon Powershot/TIFF, Canon RebelXT/JPEG and TIFF) to 0.97 (CanonScan/TIFF and JPEG) and the accuracy ranged from 0.82 (Canon RebelXT/JPEG) to 0.91 (CanonScan/JPEG). Conclusion: The carious lesion diagnosis did not change in either of the file formats (JPEG and TIFF) in which the images were saved for any of the equipment used. Only the CanonScan scanner did not have adequate performance in radiography digitalization for caries diagnosis and it is not recommended for this purpose. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2011) 40, 338-343. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/67185962

Reliability and Failure Modes of Implant-Supported Y-TZP and MCR Three-Unit Bridges

Purpose: Chipping within veneering porcelain has resulted in high clinical failure rates for implant-supported zirconia (yttria-tetragonal zirconia polycrystals [Y-TZP]) bridges. This study evaluated the reliability and failure modes of mouth-motion step-stress fatigued implant-supported Y-TZP versus palladium-silver alloy (PdAg) three-unit bridges. Materials and Methods: Implant-abutment replicas were embedded in polymethylmethacrylate resin. Y-TZP and PdAg frameworks, of similar design (n = 21 each), were fabricated, veneered, cemented (n = 3 each), and Hertzian contact-tested to obtain ultimate failure load. In each framework group, 18 specimens were distributed across three step-stress profiles and mouth-motion cyclically loaded according to the profile on the lingual slope of the buccal cusp of the pontic. Results: PdAg failures included competing flexural cracking at abutment and/or connector area and chipping, whereas Y-TZP presented predominantly cohesive failure within veneering porcelain. Including all failure modes, the reliability (two-sided at 90% confidence intervals) for a ""mission"" of 50,000 and 100,000 cycles at 300 N load was determined (Alta Pro, Reliasoft, Tucson, AZ, USA). No difference in reliability was observed between groups for a mission of 50,000. Reliability remained unchanged for a mission of 100,000 for PdAg, but significantly decreased for Y-TZP. Conclusions: Higher reliability was found for PdAg for a mission of 100,000 cycles at 300 N. Failure modes differed between materials.

Fatigue life and failure modes of crowns systems with a modified framework design

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of framework design on the fatigue life and failure modes of metal ceramic (MC, Ni-Cr alloy core, VMK 95 porcelain veneer), glass-infiltrated alumina (ICA, In-Ceram Alumina/VM7), and veneered yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystals (Y-TZP, IPSe.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max,) crowns. Methods: Sixty composite resin tooth replicas of a prepared maxillary first molar were produced to receive crowns systems of a standard (MCs, ICAs, and Y-TZPs, n = 10 each) or a modified framework design (MCm, ICAm, and Y-TZPm, n = 10 each). Fatigue loading was delivered with a spherical steel indenter (3.18 mm radius) on the center of the occlusal surface using r-ratio fatigue (30-300 N) until completion of 10(6) cycles or failure. Fatigue was interrupted every 125,000 cycles for damage evaluation. Weibull distribution fits and contour plots were used for examining differences between groups. Failure mode was evaluated by light polarized and SEM microscopy. Results: Weibull analysis showed the highest fatigue life for MC crowns regardless of framework design. No significant difference (confidence bound overlaps) was observed between ICA and Y-TZP with or without framework design modification. Y-TZPm crowns presented fatigue life in the range of MC crowns. No porcelain veneer fracture was observed in the MC groups, whereas ICAs presented bulk fracture and ICAm failed mainly through the veneer. Y-TZP crowns failed through chipping within the veneer, without core fractures. Conclusions: Framework design modification did not improve the fatigue life of the crown systems investigated. Y-TZPm crowns showed comparable fatigue life to MC groups. Failure mode varied according to crown system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure modes of Y-TZP crowns at different cusp inclines

Objectives To compare the reliability of the disto-facial (DF) and mesio-lingual (ML) cusps of an anatomically correct zirconia (Y-TZP) crown system The research hypotheses tested were (1) fatigue reliability and failure mode are similar for the ML and DF cusps, (2) failure mode of one cusp does not affect the failure of the other Methods The average dimensions of a mandibular first molar crown were imported into CAD software, a tooth preparation was modelled by 1 5 mm marginal high reduction of proximal walls and occlusal surface by 2 0 mm The CAD-based tooth preparation was milled and used as a die to fabricate crowns (n = 14) with porcelain veneer on a 0 5 mm Y-TZP core. Crowns were cemented on composite reproductions of the tooth preparation The crowns were step-stress mouth motion fatigued with sliding (0 7 mm) a tungsten-carbide indenter of 6 25 mm diameter down on the inclines of either the DF or ML cusps Use level probability Weibull curve with use stress of 200 N and the reliability for completion of a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load were calculated Results Reliability for a 200 N at 50,000 cycles mission was not different between tested cusps SEM imaging showed large cohesive failures within the veneer for the ML and smaller for the DF Fractures originated from the contact area regardless of the cusp loaded Conclusion No significant difference on fatigue reliability was observed between the DF compared to the ML cusp Fracture of one cusp did not affect the other (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved