Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Effects of bisoprolol fumarate on left ventricular size, function, and exercise capacity in patients with heart failure: analysis with magnetic resonance myocardial tagging.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that beta-blockers can be beneficial in subgroups of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). For metoprolol and carvedilol, an increase in ejection fraction has been shown and favorable effects on the myocardial remodeling process have been reported in some studies. We examined the effects of bisoprolol fumarate on exercise capacity and left ventricular volume with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and applied a novel high-resolution MRI tagging technique to determine myocardial rotation and relaxation velocity. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients (mean age, 57 +/- 11 years; mean ejection fraction, 26 +/- 6%) were randomized to bisoprolol fumarate (n = 13) or to placebo therapy (n = 15). The dosage of the drugs was titrated to match that of the the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study protocol. Hemodynamic and gas exchange responses to exercise, MRI measurements of left ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes and ejection fraction, and left ventricular rotation and relaxation velocities were measured before the administration of the drug and 6 and 12 months later. RESULTS: After 1 year, heart rate was reduced in the bisoprolol fumarate group both at rest (81 +/- 12 before therapy versus 61 +/- 11 after therapy; P <.01) and peak exercise (144 +/- 20 before therapy versus 127 +/- 17 after therapy; P <.01), which indicated a reduction in sympathetic drive. No differences were observed in heart rate responses in the placebo group. No differences were observed within or between groups in peak oxygen uptake, although work rate achieved was higher (117.9 +/- 36 watts versus 146.1 +/- 33 watts; P <.05) and exercise time tended to be higher (9.1 +/- 1.7 minutes versus 11.4 +/- 2.8 minutes; P =.06) in the bisoprolol fumarate group. A trend for a reduction in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (-54 mL) and left ventricular end-systolic volume (-62 mL) in the bisoprolol fumarate group occurred after 1 year. Ejection fraction was higher in the bisoprolol fumarate group (25.0 +/- 7 versus 36.2 +/- 9%; P <.05), and the placebo group remained unchanged. Most changes in volume and ejection fraction occurred during the latter 6 months of treatment. With myocardial tagging, insignificant reductions in left ventricular rotation velocity were observed in both groups, whereas relaxation velocity was reduced only after bisoprolol fumarate therapy (by 39%; P <.05). CONCLUSION: One year of bisoprolol fumarate therapy resulted in an improvement in exercise capacity, showed trends for reductions in end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, increased ejection fraction, and significantly reduced relaxation velocity. Although these results generally confirm the beneficial effects of beta-blockade in patients with chronic heart failure, they show differential effects on systolic and diastolic function.

Long-term close follow-up of chorioretinal lesions in presumed ocular tuberculosis.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the long-term outcome (up to 7 years) of presumed ocular tuberculosis (TB) when the therapeutic decision was based on WHO guidelines. METHODS: Twelve out of 654 new uveitic patients (1998-2004) presented with choroiditis and positive tuberculosis skin test (TST) (skin lesion diameter >15 mm). Therapy was administered according to WHO recommendations after ophthalmic and systemic investigation. The area size of ocular lesions at presentation and after therapy, measured on fluorescein and indocyanine green angiographies, was considered the primary outcome. Relapse of choroiditis was considered a secondary outcome. The T-SPOT TB test was performed when it became available. RESULTS: Visual acuity significantly improved after therapy (p=0.0357). The mean total surface of fluorescein lesions at entry was 44.8 ± 20.9 (arbitrary units) and decreased to 32.5 ± 16.9 after therapy (p=0.0165). The mean total surface of indocyanine green lesions at entry was 24.5 ± 13.3 and decreased to 10.8 ± 5.4 after therapy (p=0.0631). The T-SPOT TB revealed 2 false TST-positive results. The mean follow-up was 4.5 ± 1.5 years. Two relapses out of 10 confirmed ocular TB was observed after complete lesion healing, 2.5 years and 4.5 years after therapy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A decrease of ocular lesion mean size and a mean improvement of VA were observed after antituberculous therapy. Our long-term follow-up of chorioretinal lesions demonstrated relapse of ocular tuberculosis in 10% of patients with confirmed ocular TB, despite complete initial retinal scarring.

Am I shrinking? On clothing size and body size.

Comment on: Hughes LA, Schouten LJ, Goldbohm RA, van den Brandt PA, Weijenberg MP. Self-reported clothing size as a proxy measure for body size. Epidemiology. 2009 Sep;20(5):673-6. PMID: 19451821

Antibacterial activity of essential oils on Xanthomonas vesicatoria and control of bacterial spot in tomato

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of plant essential oils (EOs) on the growth of Xanthomonas vesicatoria, on bacterial morphology and ultrastructure, and on the severity of tomato bacterial spot. EOs from citronella, clove, cinnamon, lemongrass, eucalyptus, thyme, and tea tree were evaluated in vitro at concentrations of 0.1, 1.0, 10, and 100% in 1.0% powdered milk. The effect of EOs, at 0.1%, on the severity of tomato bacterial spot was evaluated in tomato seedlings under greenhouse conditions. The effects of citronella, lemongrass, clove, and tea tree EOs, at 0.1%, on X. vesicatoria cells were evaluated by transmission electron microscopy. All EOs showed direct toxic effect on the bacteria at a 10%-concentration in vitro. Under greenhouse conditions, the EOs of clove, citronella, tea tree, and lemongrass reduced disease severity. EOs of clove and tea tree, and streptomycin sulfate promoted loss of electron-dense material and alterations in the cytoplasm, whereas EO of tea tree promoted cytoplasm vacuolation, and those of citronella, lemongrass, clove, and tea tree caused damage to the bacterial cell wall. The EOs at a concentration of 0.1% reduce the severity of the disease.

Séries temporais de NDVI do sensor SPOT Vegetation e algoritmo SAM aplicados ao mapeamento de cana‑de‑açúcar

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o mapeamento de área de cana‑de‑açúcar por meio de série temporal, de seis anos de dados do índice de vegetação por diferença normalizada (NDVI), oriundos do sensor Vegetation, a bordo do satélite "système pour l'observation de la Terre" (SPOT). Três classes de cobertura do solo (cana‑de‑açúcar, pasto e floresta), do Estado de São Paulo, foram selecionadas como assinaturas espectro‑temporais de referência, que serviram como membros extremos ("endmembers") para classificação com o algoritmo "spectral angle mapper" (SAM). A partir desta classificação, o mapeamento da área de cana‑de‑açúcar foi realizado com uso de limiares na imagem-regra do SAM, gerados a partir dos valores dos espectros de referência. Os resultados mostram que o algoritmo SAM pode ser aplicado a séries de dados multitemporais de resolução moderada, o que permite eficiente mapeamento de alvo agrícola em escala mesorregional. Dados oficiais de áreas de cana‑de‑açúcar, para as microrregiões paulistas, apresentam boa correlação (r² = 0,8) com os dados obtidos pelo método avaliado. A aplicação do algoritmo SAM mostrou ser útil em análises temporais. As séries temporais de NDVI do sensor SPOT Vegetation podem ser utilizadas para mapeamento da área de cana‑de‑açúcar em baixa resolução.

Long-term antiretroviral treatment initiated at primary HIV-1 infection affects the size, composition, and decay kinetics of the reservoir of HIV-1-infected CD4 T cells.

Initiation of antiretroviral therapy during the earliest stages of HIV-1 infection may limit the seeding of a long-lasting viral reservoir, but long-term effects of early antiretroviral treatment initiation remain unknown. Here, we analyzed immunological and virological characteristics of nine patients who started antiretroviral therapy at primary HIV-1 infection and remained on suppressive treatment for >10 years; patients with similar treatment duration but initiation of suppressive therapy during chronic HIV-1 infection served as controls. We observed that independently of the timing of treatment initiation, HIV-1 DNA in CD4 T cells decayed primarily during the initial 3 to 4 years of treatment. However, in patients who started antiretroviral therapy in early infection, this decay occurred faster and was more pronounced, leading to substantially lower levels of cell-associated HIV-1 DNA after long-term treatment. Despite this smaller size, the viral CD4 T cell reservoir in persons with early treatment initiation consisted more dominantly of the long-lasting central-memory and T memory stem cells. HIV-1-specific T cell responses remained continuously detectable during antiretroviral therapy, independently of the timing of treatment initiation. Together, these data suggest that early HIV-1 treatment initiation, even when continued for >10 years, is unlikely to lead to viral eradication, but the presence of low viral reservoirs and durable HIV-1 T cell responses may make such patients good candidates for future interventional studies aiming at HIV-1 eradication and cure. IMPORTANCE: Antiretroviral therapy can effectively suppress HIV-1 replication to undetectable levels; however, HIV-1 can persist despite treatment, and viral replication rapidly rebounds when treatment is discontinued. This is mainly due to the presence of latently infected CD4 T cells, which are not susceptible to antiretroviral drugs. Starting treatment in the earliest stages of HIV-1 infection can limit the number of these latently infected cells, raising the possibility that these viral reservoirs are naturally eliminated if suppressive antiretroviral treatment is continued for extremely long periods of time. Here, we analyzed nine patients who started on antiretroviral therapy within the earliest weeks of the disease and continued treatment for more than 10 years. Our data show that early treatment accelerated the decay of infected CD4 T cells and led to very low residual levels of detectable HIV-1 after long-term therapy, levels that were otherwise detectable in patients who are able to maintain a spontaneous, drug-free control of HIV-1 replication. Thus, long-term antiretroviral treatment started during early infection cannot eliminate HIV-1, but the reduced reservoirs of HIV-1 infected cells in such patients may increase their chances to respond to clinical interventions aiming at inducing a drug-free remission of HIV-1 infection.

Investigating the relationship between pollination strategies and the size-advantage model in zoophilous plants using the reproductive biology of Arum cylindraceum and other European Arum species as case studies

The size-advantage model (SAM) explains the temporal variation of energetic investment on reproductive structures (i.e. male and female gametes and reproductive organs) in long-lived hermaphroditic plants and animals. It proposes that an increase in the resources available to an organism induces a higher relative investment on the most energetically costly sexual structures. In plants, pollination interactions are known to play an important role in the evolution of floral features. Because the SAM directly concerns flower characters, pollinators are expected to have a strong influence on the application of the model. This hypothesis, however, has never been tested. Here, we investigate whether the identity and diversity of pollinators can be used as a proxy to predict the application of the SAM in exclusive zoophilous plants. We present a new approach to unravel the dynamics of the model and test it on several widespread Arum (Araceae) species. By identifying the species composition, abundance and spatial variation of arthropods trapped in inflorescences, we show that some species (i.e. A. cylindraceum and A. italicum) display a generalist reproductive strategy, relying on the exploitation of a low number of dipterans, in contrast to the pattern seen in the specialist A. maculatum (pollinated specifically by two fly species only). Based on the model presented here, the application of the SAM is predicted for the first two and not expected in the latter species, those predictions being further confirmed by allometric measures. We here demonstrate that while an increase in the female zone occurs in larger inflorescences of generalist species, this does not happen in species demonstrating specific pollinators. This is the first time that this theory is both proposed and empirically tested in zoophilous plants. Its overall biological importance is discussed through its application in other non-Arum systems.

Plant growth and leaf-spot severity on eucalypt at different CO2concentrations in the air

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of increased air-CO2 concentration on plant growth and on leaf-spot caused by Cylindrocladium candelabrumin Eucalyptus urophylla. Seedlings were cultivated for 30 days at 451, 645, 904, and 1,147 µmol mol-1 CO2 ; then, they were inoculated with the pathogen and kept under the same conditions for seven days. Increased CO2concentration increased plant height and shoot dry matter mass, and decreased disease incidence and severity. Stem diameter was not affected by the treatments. Increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 favorably affect eucalypt growth and reduce leaf-spot severity.

Effect of neighborhood and plot size on experiments with multiple-harvest oleraceous crops

The objective of this work was to determine the efficiency of the Papadakis method on the quality evaluation of experiments with multiple-harvest oleraceous crops, and on the estimate of the covariate and the ideal plot size. Data from nine uniformity trials (five with bean pod, two with zucchini, and two with sweet pepper) and from one experiment with treatments (with sweet pepper) were used. Through the uniformity trials, the best way to calculate the covariate was defined and the optimal plot size was calculated. In the experiment with treatments, analyses of variance and covariance were performed, in which the covariate was calculated by the Papadakis method, and experimental precision was evaluated based on four statistics. The use of analysis of covariance with the covariate obtained by the Papadakis method increases the quality of experiments with multiple-harvest oleraceous crops and allows the use of smaller plot sizes. The best covariate is the one that considers a neighboring plot of each side of the reference plot.

Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size

The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes - a marker of the effective population size - in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels.

Testis size, sperm characteristics and testosterone concentrations in four species of shrews (Mammalia, Soricidae).

The aim of this study was to establish and compare the sperm characteristics in four shrew species in the context of the sperm competition hypothesis. As expected, the large relative testis size in promiscuous species was associated with a high number of cauda epididymal spermatozoa and a high concentration of circulating testosterone. In addition, in Sorex and Neomys, species with high intensity of sperm competition, the spermatozoa stored in cauda epididymis were characterized by high percentage of progressive motility whereas in Crocidura and Suncus, the cauda epididymal spermatozoa were motile but with very low percentage of progressive motility. This capability is achieved only following the passage through the vas gland, a specialized region for sperm storage located along the vas deferens in these shrew species. The hypothesis that sperm competition is positively correlated with spermatozoa length could not be confirmed. In Crocidura and Suncus, the total sperm length is increased by the large sperm head due to a big acrosome. This trait, specific to the subfamily Crocidurinae, may results from a selective pressure independent of the context of sperm competition, related to a specific, but as yet unclear role, for the acrosome during the fertilization.

Size and fat content of gynes in relation to the mode of colony founding in ants (Hymenoptera; Formicidae)

In ants, there are two main processes of colony founding, the independent and the dependent modes. In the first case young queens start colony founding without the help of workers, whereas in the second case they are accompanied by workers. To determine the relation between the mode of colony founding and the physiology of queens, we collected mature gynes of 24 ant species. Mature gynes of species utilizing independent colony founding had a far higher relative fat content than gynes of species employing dependent colony founding. These fat reserves are stored during the period of maturation, i.e. between the time of emergence and mating, and serve as fuel during the time of colony founding to nurture the queen and the brood. Gynes of species founding independently but non claustrally were found to have a relative fat content intermediate between the values found for gynes founding independently and those founding dependently. This suggests that such gynes rely partially on their fat reserves and partially on the energy provided by prey they collect to nurture themselves and the first brood during the time of colony founding. Study of the fat content of mature gynes of all species has shown that it gives a good indication of the mode of colony founding.

Grouping sunflower genotypes for yield, oil content, and reaction to Alternaria leaf spot using GGE biplot

Abstract:The objective of this work was to evaluate the suitability of the multivariate method of principal component analysis (PCA) using the GGE biplot software for grouping sunflower genotypes for their reaction to Alternaria leaf spot disease (Alternariaster helianthi), and for their yield and oil content. Sixty-nine genotypes were evaluated for disease severity in the field, at the R3 growth stage, in seven growing seasons, in Londrina, in the state of Paraná, Brazil, using a diagrammatic scale developed for this disease. Yield and oil content were also evaluated. Data were standardized using the software Statistica, and GGE biplot was used for PCA and graphical display of data. The first two principal components explained 77.9% of the total variation. According to the polygonal biplot using the first two principal components and three response variables, the genotypes were divided into seven sectors. Genotypes located on sectors 1 and 2 showed high yield and high oil content, respectively, and those located on sector 7 showed tolerance to the disease and high yield, despite the high disease severity. The principal component analysis using GGE biplot is an efficient method for grouping sunflower genotypes based on the studied variables.

Multivariable regression analysis and hot-spot stress approach into fatigue life estimations of welded joints

Kolmen eri hitsausliitoksen väsymisikä arvio on analysoitu monimuuttuja regressio analyysin avulla. Regression perustana on laaja S-N tietokanta joka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Tarkastellut liitokset ovat tasalevy liitos, krusiformi liitos ja pitkittäisripa levyssä. Muuttujina ovat jännitysvaihtelu, kuormitetun levyn paksuus ja kuormitus tapa. Paksuus effekti on käsitelty uudelleen kaikkia kolmea liitosta ajatellen. Uudelleen käsittelyn avulla on varmistettu paksuus effektin olemassa olo ennen monimuuttuja regressioon siirtymistä. Lineaariset väsymisikä yhtalöt on ajettu kolmelle hitsausliitokselle ottaen huomioon kuormitetun levyn paksuus sekä kuormitus tapa. Väsymisikä yhtalöitä on verrattu ja keskusteltu testitulosten valossa, jotka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Neljä tutkimustaon tehty kerättyjen väsymistestien joukosta ja erilaisia väsymisikä arvio metodeja on käytetty väsymisiän arviointiin. Tuloksia on tarkasteltu ja niistä keskusteltu oikeiden testien valossa. Tutkimuksissa on katsottu 2mm ja 6mm symmetristäpitkittäisripaa levyssä, 12.7mm epäsymmetristä pitkittäisripaa, 38mm symmetristä pitkittäisripaa vääntökuormituksessa ja 25mm/38mm kuorman kantavaa krusiformi liitosta vääntökuormituksessa. Mallinnus on tehty niin lähelle testi liitosta kuin mahdollista. Väsymisikä arviointi metodit sisältävät hot-spot metodin jossa hot-spot jännitys on laskettu kahta lineaarista ja epälineaarista ekstrapolointiakäyttäen sekä paksuuden läpi integrointia käyttäen. Lovijännitys ja murtumismekaniikka metodeja on käytetty krusiformi liitosta laskiessa.