Impact of genetic polymorphisms in cytomegalovirus glycoprotein B on outcomes in solid-organ transplant recipients with cytomegalovirus disease.

BACKGROUND:It is unknown whether specific viral polymorphisms affect in vivo therapeutic response in patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease. Polymorphisms in the CMV glycoprotein B (gB) gene allow discrimination of 4 distinct genotypes (gB1-gB4). We assessed the influence of gB genotypes on the clinical and virologic outcome of CMV disease. METHODS:Solid-organ transplant recipients enrolled in a multicenter trial of CMV disease treatment (VICTOR study) were included in this study. CMV gB genotyping was performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction at day 0 (start of antiviral therapy). RESULTS:Among 239 patients with CMV disease, the prevalence of gB strain types was 26% for gB1, 10% for gB2, 10% for gB3, and 5% for gB4, whereas mixed infections were present in 49%. Donor-seropositive/recipient-seropositive patients were more likely to have mixed gB infection than donor-seropositive/recipient-seronegative patients (40% vs. 12%; P = .001). Median baseline viral loads were higher and time to viral eradication was longer ( P = .006 and P = .026 , respectively) for mixed infection versus infection with a single genotype. In a multivariate model, mixed gB infection was a significant predictor of failure to eradicate virus by day 21 (mixed vs single genotype; odds ratio, 2.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-5.38; P = .007 ) after controlling for baseline viral load, CMV serostatus at baseline, ganciclovir resistance, and antiviral treatment. No effect of gB genotype was seen on virologic or clinical CMV recurrence. CONCLUSIONS:No specific gB genotype appears to confer a specific CMV virulence advantage. However, mixed gB genotype infections are associated with higher viral loads and delayed viral clearance.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Design and evaluation of a solid sampler for the monitoring of airborne 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) and its prepolymers in 2-component spray painting

An active, solvent-free solid sampler was developed for the collection of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol and prepolymers. The sampler was made of a filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine contained in a filter holder. Interferences with HDI were observed when a set of cellulose acetate filters and a polystyrene filter holder were used; a glass fiber filter and polypropylene filter cassette gave better results. The applicability of the sampling and analytical procedure was validated with a test chamber, constructed for the dynamic generation of HDI aerosol and prepolymers in commercial two-component spray paints (Desmodur(R) N75) used in car refinishing. The particle size distribution, temporal stability, and spatial uniformity of the simulated aerosol were established in order to test the sample. The monitoring of aerosol concentrations was conducted with the solid sampler paired to the reference impinger technique (impinger flasks contained 10 mL of 0.5 mg/mL 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in toluene) under a controlled atmosphere in the test chamber. Analyses of derivatized HDI and prepolymers were carried out by using high-performance liquid chromatography and ultraviolet detection. The correlation between the solvent-free and the impinger techniques appeared fairly good (Y = 0.979X - 0.161; R = 0.978), when the tests were conducted in the range of 0.1 to 10 times the threshold limit value (TLV) for HDI monomer and up to 60-mu-g/m3 (3 U.K. TLVs) for total -N = C = O groups.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.

Cell-based computational modeling of vascular morphogenesis using Tissue Simulation Toolkit.

Computational modeling has become a widely used tool for unraveling the mechanisms of higher level cooperative cell behavior during vascular morphogenesis. However, experimenting with published simulation models or adding new assumptions to those models can be daunting for novice and even for experienced computational scientists. Here, we present a step-by-step, practical tutorial for building cell-based simulations of vascular morphogenesis using the Tissue Simulation Toolkit (TST). The TST is a freely available, open-source C++ library for developing simulations with the two-dimensional cellular Potts model, a stochastic, agent-based framework to simulate collective cell behavior. We will show the basic use of the TST to simulate and experiment with published simulations of vascular network formation. Then, we will present step-by-step instructions and explanations for building a recent simulation model of tumor angiogenesis. Demonstrated mechanisms include cell-cell adhesion, chemotaxis, cell elongation, haptotaxis, and haptokinesis.

Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

The use of ferromagnetic dacron as solid-phase in enzyme immunoassays

Ferromagnetic dacron is proposed as an alternative solid-phase for magnetic enzyme immunoassays. Human serum albumin (HSA) was covalentlyimmobilized onto ferromagnetic dacron and as enzyme immunoassay was developed using anti-HSA rabbit sera. Peroxidase, o-phenylenediamine (OPD) and hydrogen peroxide were used anti-HSA rabbit sera. Peroxidase, o-phenylenediamine (OPD) and hydrogen peroxide were used as the enzymatic label and substrates, respectively. Best results were observed when particles of 63-100 µm (diameter) and 10 µg of immobilized antigen were used. Positive reactions were detected until dilutions of1:51200 of immune sera. Its reproducibility was similar to standard ELISA. Disruption of the immunocomplexes formed and recuperation of the immobilized antigen in other immunoassays also proved to be reliable.

Evaluation of oral versus intravenous dose of vinorelbine to achieve equivalent blood exposures in patients with solid tumours.

Patient's preference is for oral chemotherapy when both oral and i.v. are available, provided that efficacy is equivalent. Reliable switch from oral to i.v. is possible if correspondence between respective doses has been established. Vinorelbine oral was developed as a line extension of VRL i.v. on the basis that similar AUCs result in similar activities. From a first crossover study on 24 patients receiving VRL 25 mg/m2 i.v. and 80 mg/m2 oral data extrapolation concluded on AUCs bioequivalence between Vinorelbine 30 mg/m2 i.v. and 80 mg/m2 oral. A new trial was performed to support this calculation. In a crossover design study on patients (PS 0-1) with advanced solid tumours (44% breast carcinoma), VRL was administered (30 mg/m2 i.v., 80 mg/m2 oral) with a standard meal and 5-HT3 antagonists, at 2 weeks interval. Pharmacokinetics was performed over 168 h and VRL was measured by LC-MS/MS. Statistics included bioequivalence tests. Forty-eight patients were evaluable for PK: median age 58 years (25-71), PS0/PS1: 20/28, M/F: 11/37. Mean AUCs were 1,230 +/- 290 and 1,216 +/- 521 ng/ml for i.v. and oral, respectively. The confidence interval of the AUC ratio (0.83-1.03) was within the required regulatory range (0.8-1.25) and proved the bioequivalence between the two doses. The absolute bioavailability was 37.8 +/- 16.0%, and close to the value from the first study (40%). Patient tolerability was globally comparable between both forms with no significant difference on either haematological or non-haematological toxicities (grade 3-4). This new study, conducted on a larger population, confirmed the reliable dose correspondence previously established between vinorelbine 80 mg/m2 oral and 30 mg/m2 i.v.