Causality analysis of groundwater dynamics based on a Vector Autoregressive model in the semi-arid basin of Gundal (South India)

Causal relationships existing between observed levels of groundwater in a semi-arid sub-basin of the Kabini River basin (Karnataka state, India) are investigated in this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this purpose. Its structure is built on an upstream/downstream interaction network based on observed hydro-physical properties. Exogenous climatic forcing is used as an input based on cumulated rainfall departure. Optimal models are obtained thanks to a trial approach and are used as a proxy of the dynamics to derive causal networks. It appears to be an interesting tool for analysing the causal relationships existing inside the basin. The causal network reveals 3 main regions: the Northeastern part of the Gundal basin is closely coupled to the outlet dynamics. The Northwestern part is mainly controlled by the climatic forcing and only marginally linked to the outlet dynamic. Finally, the upper part of the basin plays as a forcing rather than a coupling with the lower part of the basin allowing for a separate analysis of this local behaviour. The analysis also reveals differential time scales at work inside the basin when comparing upstream oriented with downstream oriented causalities. In the upper part of the basin, time delays are close to 2 months in the upward direction and lower than 1 month in the downward direction. These time scales are likely to be good indicators of the hydraulic response time of the basin which is a parameter usually difficult to estimate practically. This suggests that, at the sub-basin scale, intra-annual time scales would be more relevant scales for analysing or modelling tropical basin dynamics in hard rock (granitic and gneissic) aquifers ubiquitous in south India. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Effect of pouring temperature on cooling slope casting of semi-solid Al-Si-Mg alloy

Present trend of semi-solid processing is directed towards rheocasting route which allows manufacturing of near-net-shape cast components directly from the prepared semi-solid slurry. Generation of globular equi-axed grains during solidification of rheocast components, compared to the columnar dendritic structure of conventional casting routes, facilitates the manufacturing of components with improved mechanical properties and structural integrity. In the present investigation, a cooling slope has been designed and indigenously fabricated to produce semi solid slurry of Al-Si-Mg (A356) alloy and successively cast in a metallic mould. The scope of the present work discusses about development of a numerical model to simulate the liquid metal flow through cooling slope using Eulerian two-phase flow approach and to investigate the effect of pouring temperature on cooling slope semi-solid slurry generation process. The two phases considered in the present model are liquid metal and air. Solid fraction evolution of the solidifying melt is tracked at different locations of the cooling slope, following Schiel's equation. The continuity equation, momentum equation and energy equation are solved considering thin wall boundary condition approach. During solidification of the liquid metal, a modified temperature recovery scheme has been employed taking care of the latent heat release and change of fraction of liquid. The results obtained from simulations are compared with experimental findings and good agreement has been found.

Stability of Adult Emergence and Activity/Rest Rhythms in Fruit Flies Drosophila melanogaster under Semi-Natural Condition

Here we report the results of a study aimed at examining stability of adult emergence and activity/rest rhythms under seminatural conditions (henceforth SN), in four large outbred fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster populations, selected for emergence in a narrow window of time under laboratory (henceforth LAB) light/dark (LD) cycles. When assessed under LAB, selected flies display enhanced stability in terms of higher amplitude, synchrony and accuracy in emergence and activity rhythms compared to controls. The present study was conducted to assess whether such differences in stability between selected and control populations, persist under SN where several gradually changing time-cues are present in their strongest form. The study revealed that under SN, emergence waveform of selected flies was modified, with even more enhanced peak and narrower gate-width compared to those observed in the LAB and compared to control populations in SN. Furthermore, flies from selected populations continued to exhibit enhanced synchrony and accuracy in their emergence and activity rhythms under SN compared to controls. Further analysis of zeitgeber effects revealed that enhanced stability in the rhythmicity of selected flies under SN was primarily due to increased sensitivity to light because emergence and activity rhythms of selected flies were as stable as controls under temperature cycles. These results thus suggest that stability of circadian rhythms in fruit flies D. melanogaster, which evolved as a consequence of selection for emergence in a narrow window of time under weak zeitgeber condition of LAB, persists robustly in the face of day-to-day variations in cycling environmental factors of nature.

Non-Stationary Semi-Markov Decision Processes on a Finite Horizon

We introduce and study a class of non-stationary semi-Markov decision processes on a finite horizon. By constructing an equivalent Markov decision process, we establish the existence of a piecewise open loop relaxed control which is optimal for the finite horizon problem.

Semi-supervised SVMs for classification with unknown class proportions and a small labeled dataset

In the design of practical web page classification systems one often encounters a situation in which the labeled training set is created by choosing some examples from each class; but, the class proportions in this set are not the same as those in the test distribution to which the classifier will be actually applied. The problem is made worse when the amount of training data is also small. In this paper we explore and adapt binary SVM methods that make use of unlabeled data from the test distribution, viz., Transductive SVMs (TSVMs) and expectation regularization/constraint (ER/EC) methods to deal with this situation. We empirically show that when the labeled training data is small, TSVM designed using the class ratio tuned by minimizing the loss on the labeled set yields the best performance; its performance is good even when the deviation between the class ratios of the labeled training set and the test set is quite large. When the labeled training data is sufficiently large, an unsupervised Gaussian mixture model can be used to get a very good estimate of the class ratio in the test set; also, when this estimate is used, both TSVM and EC/ER give their best possible performance, with TSVM coming out superior. The ideas in the paper can be easily extended to multi-class SVMs and MaxEnt models.

Performance of established native seedlings in relation to invasive Lantana camara, rainfall and species' habitat preferences in a seasonally dry tropical forest

Native species' response to the presence of invasive species is context specific. This response cannot be studied in isolation from the prevailing environmental stresses in invaded habitats such as seasonal drought. We investigated the combined effects of an invasive shrub Lantana camara L. (lantana), seasonal rainfall and species' microsite preferences on the growth and survival of 1,105 naturally established seedlings of native trees and shrubs in a seasonally dry tropical forest. Individuals were followed from April 2008 to February 2010, and growth and survival measured in relation to lantana density, seasonality of rainfall and species characteristics in a 50-ha permanent forest plot located in Mudumalai, southern India. We used a mixed effects modelling approach to examine seedling growth and generalized linear models to examine seedling survival. The overall relative height growth rate of established seedlings was found to be very low irrespective of the presence or absence of dense lantana. 22-month growth rate of dry forest species was lower under dense lantana while moist forest species were not affected by the presence of lantana thickets. 4-month growth rates of all species increased with increasing inter-census rainfall. Community results may be influenced by responses of the most abundant species, Catunaregam spinosa, whose growth rates were always lower under dense lantana. Overall seedling survival was high, increased with increasing rainfall and was higher for species with dry forest preference than for species with moist forest preference. The high survival rates of naturally established seedlings combined with their basal sprouting ability in this forest could enable the persistence of woody species in the face of invasive species.

Random forest algorithm with derived geographical layers for improved classification of remote sensing data

Effective conservation and management of natural resources requires up-to-date information of the land cover (LC) types and their dynamics. The LC dynamics are being captured using multi-resolution remote sensing (RS) data with appropriate classification strategies. RS data with important environmental layers (either remotely acquired or derived from ground measurements) would however be more effective in addressing LC dynamics and associated changes. These ancillary layers provide additional information for delineating LC classes' decision boundaries compared to the conventional classification techniques. This communication ascertains the possibility of improved classification accuracy of RS data with ancillary and derived geographical layers such as vegetation index, temperature, digital elevation model (DEM), aspect, slope and texture. This has been implemented in three terrains of varying topography. The study would help in the selection of appropriate ancillary data depending on the terrain for better classified information.

Remoulded shear strength at plastic and semi-solid states

The undrained shear strength of remoulded soils is of great concern in geotechnical engineering applications. This study aims to develop a reliable approach for determining the undrained shear strength of remoulded fine-grained soils, through the use of index test results, at both the plastic and semi-solid states of consistency. Experimental investigation and subsequent analysis involving a number of fine-grained soils of widely varying plasticity and geological origin have led to a two-parameter linear model of the relationship between logarithm of remoulded undrained shear strength and liquidity index. The numerical values of the parameters are found to be dependent to a lesser extent on the soil group and to a greater extent on the soil state. Based on the values of regression coefficient, ranking index and ranking distance, it seems that the relationship represents the experimental results well. It may be pointed out that the possibility of such a relationship in the semi-solid state of a soil has not been explored in the past. It is also shown that the shear strength at the plastic limit is about 32-34 times that at the liquid limit.

Discussion: Remoulded shear strength at plastic and semi-solid states

The undrained shear strength of remoulded soils is of great concern in geotechnical engineering applications. This study aims to develop a reliable approach for determining the undrained shear strength of remoulded fine-grained soils, through the use of index test results, at both the plastic and semi-solid states of consistency. Experimental investigation and subsequent analysis involving a number of fine-grained soils of widely varying plasticity and geological origin have led to a two-parameter linear model of the relationship between logarithm of remoulded undrained shear strength and liquidity index. The numerical values of the parameters are found to be dependent to a lesser extent on the soil group and to a greater extent on the soil state. Based on the values of regression coefficient, ranking index and ranking distance, it seems that the relationship represents the experimental results well. It may be pointed out that the possibility of such a relationship in the semi-solid state of a soil has not been explored in the past. It is also shown that the shear strength at the plastic limit is about 32–34 times that at the liquid limit.

Long-Term Environmental Correlates of Invasion by Lantana camara (Verbenaceae) in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

Invasive species, local plant communities and invaded ecosystems change over space and time. Quantifying this change may lead to a better understanding of the ecology and the effective management of invasive species. We used data on density of the highly invasive shrub Lantana camara (lantana) for the period 1990-2008 from a 50 ha permanent plot in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mudumalai in southern India. We used a cumulative link mixed-effects regression approach to model the transition of lantana from one qualitative density state to another as a function of biotic factors such as indicators of competition from local species (lantana itself, perennial grasses, invasive Chromolaena odorata, the native shrub Helicteres isora and basal area of native trees) and abiotic factors such as fire frequency, inter-annual variability of rainfall and relative soil moisture. The density of lantana increased substantially during the study period. Lantana density was negatively associated with the density of H. isora, positively associated with basal area of native trees, but not affected by the presence of grasses or other invasive species. In the absence of fire, lantana density increased with increasing rainfall. When fires occurred, transitions to higher densities occurred at low rainfall values. In drier regions, lantana changed from low to high density as rainfall increased while in wetter regions of the plot, lantana persisted in the dense category irrespective of rainfall. Lantana seems to effectively utilize resources distributed in space and time to its advantage, thus outcompeting local species and maintaining a population that is not yet self-limiting. High-risk areas and years could potentially be identified based on inferences from this study for facilitating management of lantana in tropical dry forests.

A rain forest dusk chorus: cacophony or sounds of silence?

A rain forest dusk chorus consists of a large number of individuals of acoustically communicating species signaling at the same time. How different species achieve effective intra-specific communication in this complex and noisy acoustic environment is not well understood. In this study we examined acoustic masking interference in an assemblage of rain forest crickets and katydids. We used signal structures and spacing of signalers to estimate temporal, spectral and active space overlap between species. We then examined these overlaps for evidence of strategies of masking avoidance in the assemblage: we asked whether species whose signals have high temporal or spectral overlap avoid calling together. Whereas we found evidence that species with high temporal overlap may avoid calling together, there was no relation between spectral overlap and calling activity. There was also no correlation between the spectral and temporal overlaps of the signals of different species. In addition, we found little evidence that species calling in the understorey actively use spacing to minimize acoustic overlap. Increasing call intensity and tuning receivers however emerged as powerful strategies to minimize acoustic overlap. Effective acoustic overlaps were on average close to zero for most individuals in natural, multispecies choruses, even in the absence of behavioral avoidance mechanisms such as inhibition of calling or active spacing. Thus, call temporal structure, intensity and frequency together provide sufficient parameter space for several species to call together yet communicate effectively with little interference in the apparent cacophony of a rain forest dusk chorus.