New reference tables and user-friendly Internet application for predicted heart weights.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of normal heart weight ranges is important information for pathologists. Comparing the measured heart weight to reference values is one of the key elements used to determine if the heart is pathological, as heart weight increases in many cardiac pathologies. The current reference tables are old and in need of an update. AIMS: The purposes of this study are to establish new reference tables for normal heart weights in the local population and to determine the best predictive factor for normal heart weight. We also aim to provide technical support to calculate the predictive normal heart weight. METHODS: The reference values are based on retrospective analysis of adult Caucasian autopsy cases without any obvious pathology that were collected at the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Lausanne from 2007 to 2011. We selected 288 cases. The mean age was 39.2 years. There were 118 men and 170 women. Regression analyses were performed to assess the relationship of heart weight to body weight, body height, body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA). RESULTS: The heart weight increased along with an increase in all the parameters studied. The mean heart weight was greater in men than in women at a similar body weight. BSA was determined to be the best predictor for normal heart weight. New reference tables for predicted heart weights are presented as a web application that enable the comparison of heart weights observed at autopsy with the reference values. CONCLUSIONS: The reference tables for heart weight and other organs should be systematically updated and adapted for the local population. Web access and smartphone applications for the predicted heart weight represent important investigational tools.

Spatial statistical analysis and selection of genotypes in plant breeding

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of spatial statistical analysis in the selection of genotypes in a plant breeding program and, particularly, to demonstrate the benefits of the approach when experimental observations are not spatially independent. The basic material of this study was a yield trial of soybean lines, with five check varieties (of fixed effect) and 110 test lines (of random effects), in an augmented block design. The spatial analysis used a random field linear model (RFML), with a covariance function estimated from the residuals of the analysis considering independent errors. Results showed a residual autocorrelation of significant magnitude and extension (range), which allowed a better discrimination among genotypes (increase of the power of statistical tests, reduction in the standard errors of estimates and predictors, and a greater amplitude of predictor values) when the spatial analysis was applied. Furthermore, the spatial analysis led to a different ranking of the genetic materials, in comparison with the non-spatial analysis, and a selection less influenced by local variation effects was obtained.

Tachycardia is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in the value trial

Objective: Tachycardia is associated with hypertension and is a predictor of cardiovascular events. The predictive effect of tachycardia might reflect its connection with hypertension. In this analysis of 15,245 VALUE study patients we explore whether tachycardia predicts cardiovascular endpoints in high risk hypertension and whether the in-trial blood pressure lowering modified the tachycardia - related risk. Methods: Heart rate from ECG readings at baseline and annually throughout the trial. Results: In the Cox Regression analysis the primary endpoint hazard ratio for a 10 beats per minute increment of baseline heart rate was 1.16 (1.12-1.2) p < 0.0001, 1.17 (1.13-1.22) p < 0.0001 and 1.22 (1.18-1.27) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, adjusted for baseline blood pressure and for blood pressure plus risk factors, respectively. Primary endpoints strikingly increased in the highest quintile of baseline heart rate (=/>79 beats). Primary endpoints in the highest heart rate quintile were 30 % higher in first, 55 % in second, 55 % in third, 52 % in fourth and 46 % in the fifth year of the study. The in-trial heart rate was also a potent predictor. The primary endpoint hazard ratios of highest heart rate quintile versus pooled lower 4 quintiles was (1.34-1.66) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p <0.0001 adjusted for baseline blood pressure and risk factors and 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p < 0.0001 further adjusted for in trial pressure. The increase of primary events in the upper quintile of in-trial heart rate was 68% in the group with good and 63% in the group with inadequate blood pressure control (both p < 0.0001 by log rank test). Conclusions: 1./ Tachycardia is a short term marker and a long term predictor of adverse event in high risk hypertension. 2./ Tachycardia contributes to the residual cardiovascular risk regardless of the degree of BP control. We hypothesize heart rate lowering with appropriate drugs may further decrease the cardiovascular risk in patients with high risk hypertension and tachycardia.

Trust in medical organizations predicts pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination behavior and perceived efficacy of protection measures in the Swiss public

Following the recent avian influenza and pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks, public trust in medical and political authorities is emerging as a new predictor of compliance with officially recommended protection measures. In a two-wave longitudinal survey of adults in French-speaking Switzerland, trust in medical organizations longitudinally predicted actual vaccination status 6 months later, during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccination campaign. No other variables explained significant amounts of variance. Trust in medical organizations also predicted perceived efficacy of officially recommended protection measures (getting vaccinated, washing hands, wearing a mask, sneezing into the elbow), as did beliefs about health issues (perceived vulnerability to disease, threat perceptions). These findings show that in the case of emerging infectious diseases, actual behavior and perceived efficacy of protection measures may have different antecedents. Moreover, they suggest that public trust is a crucial determinant of vaccination behavior and underscore the practical importance of managing trust in disease prevention campaigns.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Randomized controlled study demonstrating failure of LPV/r monotherapy in HIV: the role of compartment and CD4-nadir.

BACKGROUND: Long-term side-effects and cost of HIV treatment motivate the development of simplified maintenance. Monotherapy with ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r-MT) is the most widely studied strategy. However, efficacy of LPV/r-MT in compartments remains to be shown. METHODS: Randomized controlled open-label trial comparing LPV/r-MT with continued treatment for 48 weeks in treated patients with fully suppressed viral load. The primary endpoint was treatment failure in the central nervous system [cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)] and/or genital tract. Treatment failure in blood was defined as two consecutive HIV RNA levels more than 400 copies/ml. RESULTS: The trial was prematurely stopped when six patients on monotherapy (none in continued treatment-arm) demonstrated a viral failure in blood. At study termination, 60 patients were included, 29 randomized to monotherapy and 13 additional patients switched from continued treatment to monotherapy after 48 weeks. All failures occurred in patients with a nadir CD4 cell count below 200/microl and within the first 24 weeks of monotherapy. Among failing patients, all five patients with a lumbar puncture had an elevated HIV RNA load in CSF and four of six had neurological symptoms. Viral load was fully resuppressed in all failing patients after resumption of the original combination therapy. No drug resistant virus was found. The only predictor of failure was low nadir CD4 cell count (P < 0.02). CONCLUSION: Maintenance of HIV therapy with LPV/r alone should not be recommended as a standard strategy; particularly not in patients with a CD4 cell count nadir less than 200/microl. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the role of the central nervous system compartment in monotherapy-failure.

Early Strengths of Class F, C, and B Portland Cement Concrete, MLR-87-07, 1987

Fast track concrete has proven to be successful in obtaining high early strengths. This benefit does not come without cost. Type III cement and insulation blankets to accelerate the cure add to its expense when compared to conventional paving. This research was intended to determine the increase in time required to obtain opening strength when a fast track mix utilized conventional Type I cement and also used a conventional cure. Standard concrete mixes also were tested to determine the acceleration of strength gain when cured with insulation blankets. The goal was to determine mixes and procedures which would result in a range of opening times. This would allow the most economical design for a particular project and tailor it to that projects time restraint. Three mixes were tested: Class F, Class C, and Class B. Each mix was tested with one section being cured with insulation blankets and another section without. All used Type I cement. Iowa Department of Transportation specifications required 500 psi of flexural strength before a pavement can be opened to traffic. The Class F mix with Type I cement and using insulation blankets reached that strength in approximately 36 hours, the Class C mix using the blankets in approximately 48 hours, and the Class F mix without covers in about 60 hours. (Note: Class F concrete pavement is opened at 400 psi minimum and Class F bonded overlay pavement at 350 psi.) The results showed a significant improvement in early strength gain by the use of insulation blankets. The Type I cement could be used in mixes intended for early opening with sacrifices in time when compared to fast track but are still much sooner than conventional pavement. It appears a range of design alternatives is possible using Type I cement both with and without insulating blankets.

Investigation of Steel-Stringer Bridges: Superstructures and Substructures, Volume I, TR-522, 2007

There are hundreds of structurally deficient or functionally obsolete bridges in the state of Iowa. With the majority of these bridges located on rural county roads where there is limited funding available to replace the bridges, diagnostic load testing can be utilized to determine the actual load carrying capacity of the bridge. One particular family or fleet of bridges that has been determined to be desirable for load testing consists of single-span bridges with non-composite, cast-in-place concrete decks, steel stringers, and timber substructures. Six bridges with poor performing superstructure and substructure from the aforementioned family of bridges were selected to be load tested. The six bridges were located on rural roads in five different counties in Iowa: Boone, Carroll, Humboldt, Mahaska, and Marshall. Volume I of this report focuses on evaluating the superstructure for this family of bridges. This volume discusses the behavior characteristics that influence the load carrying capacity of this fleet of bridges. In particular, the live load distribution, partial composite action, and bearing restraint were investigated as potential factors that could influence the bridge ratings. Implementing fleet management practices, the bridges were analyzed to determine if the load test results could be predicted to better analyze previously untested bridges. For this family of bridges it was found that the ratings increased as a result of the load testing demonstrating a greater capacity than determined analytically. Volume II of this report focuses on evaluating the timber substructure for this family of bridges. In this volume, procedures for detecting pile internal decay using nondestructive ultrasonic stress wave techniques, correlating nondestructive ultrasonic stress wave techniques to axial compression tests to estimate deteriorated pile residual strength, and evaluating load distribution through poor performing timber substructure elements by instrumenting and load testing the abutments of the six selected bridges are discussed. Also, in this volume pile repair methods for restoring axial and bending capacities of pile are developed and evaluated.

Cancer Cell-Associated MT1-MMP Promotes Blood Vessel Invasion and Distant Metastasis in Triple-Negative Mammary Tumors.

Functional roles for the cancer cell-associated membrane type I matrix metalloproteinase (MT1-MMP) during early steps of the metastatic cascade in primary tumors remain unresolved. In an effort to determine its significance, we determined the in vivo effects of RNAi-mediated downregulation in mammary cancer cells on the migration, blood and lymphatic vessel invasion (LVI), and lymph node and lung metastasis. We also correlated the expression of cancer cell MT1-MMP with blood vessel invasion (BVI) in 102 breast cancer biopsies. MT1-MMP downregulation in cancer cells decreased lung metastasis without affecting primary tumor growth. The inhibition of lung metastasis correlated with reduced cancer cell migration and BVI. Furthermore, cancer cell-expressed MT1-MMP upregulated the expression of MT1-MMP in vascular endothelial cells, but did not affect MT1-MMP expression in lymphatic endothelial cells, LVI, or lymph node metastasis. Of clinical importance, we observed that elevated MT1-MMP expression correlated with BVI in biopsies from triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC), which have a poor prognosis and high incidence of distant metastasis, relative to other breast cancer subtypes. Together, our findings established that MT1-MMP activity in breast tumors is essential for BVI, but not LVI, and that MT1-MMP should be further explored as a predictor and therapeutic target of hematogenous metastasis in TNBC patients. Cancer Res; 71(13); 4527-38. ©2011 AACR.

Fetal testosterone (2D:4D) as predictor of cognitive reflection

The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) is a test introduced by S. Frederick (2005) Cognitive reflection and decision making, J Econ Perspect 19(4): 25-42. The task is designed to measure the tendency to override an intuitive response that is incorrect and to engage in further reflection that leads to the correct response. The consistent sex differences in CRT performance may suggest a role for gonadal hormones, particularly testosterone. A now widely studied putative marker for fetal testosterone is the second-to-fourth digit ratio (2D:4D). This paper tests to what extent 2D:4D, as a proxy for prenatal exposure to testosterone, can predict CRT scores in a sample of 623 students. After controlling for sex, we observe that a lower 2D:4D (reflecting a higher exposure to testosterone) is significantly associated with a higher number of correct answers. The result holds for both hands? 2D:4Ds. In addition, the effect appears to be sharper for females than for males. We also control for patience and math proficiency, which are significantly related to performance in the CRT. But the effect of 2D:4D on performance in CRT is not reduced with these controls, implying that these variables are not mediating the relationship between digit ratio and CRT.

Emotional intelligence and social interest : are they related constructs?

In the last 15 years, a new psychological construct has emerged in the field of psychology: Emotional Intelligence. Some models of Emotional Intelligence bear ressemblence with aspects of one of the core constructs of Adlerian Psychology: Social Interest. The authors investigated, if both constructs are also empirically related and which is their capacity to predict psychiatric symptoms and antisocial behavior. Results indicate that Social Interest and Emotional Intelligence are empirically different constructs; Social Interest was negatively correlated to aspects of antisocial attitudes (but not to antisocial behavior). Social Interest also failed to predict symptoms of psychological distress. Emotional Intelligence, in change, was a better predictor for mental problems than Social Interest. The results are discussed in view of the validity of Social Interest measurement.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

IFN Stimulated Gene Expression in the Liver is a Better Predictor of Treatment Response in Chronic Hepatitis C than the IL28B (IFN lambda 3) Genotype

BACKGROUND: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNα/ribavirin achieves a sustained virologic response (SVR) in ∼55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated with non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. METHODS: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. CONCLUSIONS: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.