Toward seamless prediction: calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

The CWRF is developed as a climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by incorporating numerous improvements in the representation of physical processes and integration of external (top, surface, lateral) forcings that are crucial to climate scales, including interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean; convection and microphysics; and cloud, aerosol, and radiation; and system consistency throughout all process modules. This extension inherits all WRF functionalities for numerical weather prediction while enhancing the capability for climate modeling. As such, CWRF can be applied seamlessly to weather forecast and climate prediction. The CWRF is built with a comprehensive ensemble of alternative parameterization schemes for each of the key physical processes, including surface (land, ocean), planetary boundary layer, cumulus (deep, shallow), microphysics, cloud, aerosol, and radiation, and their interactions. This facilitates the use of an optimized physics ensemble approach to improve weather or climate prediction along with a reliable uncertainty estimate. The CWRF also emphasizes the societal service capability to provide impactrelevant information by coupling with detailed models of terrestrial hydrology, coastal ocean, crop growth, air quality, and a recently expanded interactive water quality and ecosystem model. This study provides a general CWRF description and basic skill evaluation based on a continuous integration for the period 1979– 2009 as compared with that of WRF, using a 30-km grid spacing over a domain that includes the contiguous United States plus southern Canada and northern Mexico. In addition to advantages of greater application capability, CWRF improves performance in radiation and terrestrial hydrology over WRF and other regional models. Precipitation simulation, however, remains a challenge for all of the tested models.

SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of water vapor climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

Within the SPARC Data Initiative, the first comprehensive assessment of the quality of 13 water vapor products from 11 limb-viewing satellite instruments (LIMS, SAGE II, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM III, SMR, SAGE III, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, and Aura-MLS) obtained within the time period 1978-2010 has been performed. Each instrument's water vapor profile measurements were compiled into monthly zonal mean time series on a common latitude-pressure grid. These time series serve as basis for the "climatological" validation approach used within the project. The evaluations include comparisons of monthly or annual zonal mean cross sections and seasonal cycles in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere averaged over one or more years, comparisons of interannual variability, and a study of the time evolution of physical features in water vapor such as the tropical tape recorder and polar vortex dehydration. Our knowledge of the atmospheric mean state in water vapor is best in the lower and middle stratosphere of the tropics and midlatitudes, with a relative uncertainty of. 2-6% (as quantified by the standard deviation of the instruments' multiannual means). The uncertainty increases toward the polar regions (+/- 10-15%), the mesosphere (+/- 15%), and the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere below 100 hPa (+/- 30-50%), where sampling issues add uncertainty due to large gradients and high natural variability in water vapor. The minimum found in multiannual (1998-2008) mean water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere is 3.5 ppmv (+/- 14%), with slightly larger uncertainties for monthly mean values. The frequently used HALOE water vapor data set shows consistently lower values than most other data sets throughout the atmosphere, with increasing deviations from the multi-instrument mean below 100 hPa in both the tropics and extratropics. The knowledge gained from these comparisons and regarding the quality of the individual data sets in different regions of the atmosphere will help to improve model-measurement comparisons (e.g., for diagnostics such as the tropical tape recorder or seasonal cycles), data merging activities, and studies of climate variability.

A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the earth's energy and water budget and substantially impacts local and remote atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions a few months to a few years in advance could be of interest for stakeholders. This article presents a review of the potential sources of Arctic sea ice predictability on these timescales. Predictability mainly originates from persistence or advection of sea ice anomalies, interactions with the ocean and atmosphere and changes in radiative forcing. After estimating the inherent potential predictability limit with state-of-the-art models, current sea ice forecast systems are described, together with their performance. Finally, some challenges and issues in sea ice forecasting are presented, along with suggestions for future research priorities.

Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season

The Indian monsoon is an important component of Earth's climate system, accurate forecasting of its mean rainfall being essential for regional food and water security. Accurate measurement of the rainfall is essential for various water-related applications, the evaluation of numerical models and detection and attribution of trends, but a variety of different gridded rainfall datasets are available for these purposes. In this study, six gridded rainfall datasets are compared against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall dataset, chosen as the most representative of the observed system due to its high gauge density. The datasets comprise those based solely on rain gauge observations and those merging rain gauge data with satellite-derived products. Various skill scores and subjective comparisons are carried out for the Indian region during the south-west monsoon season (June to September). Relative biases and skill metrics are documented at all-India and sub-regional scales. In the gauge-based (land-only) category, Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) datasets perform better relative to the others in terms of a variety of skill metrics. In the merged category, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset is shown to perform better than the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) for the Indian monsoon in terms of various metrics, when compared with the IMD gridded data. Most of the datasets have difficulty in representing rainfall over orographic regions including the Western Ghats mountains, in north-east India and the Himalayan foothills. The wide range of skill scores seen among the datasets and even the change of sign of bias found in some years are causes of concern. This uncertainty between datasets is largest in north-east India. These results will help those studying the Indian monsoon region to select an appropriate dataset depending on their application and focus of research.

Improving productivity and water use efficiency: a case study of farms in England

The idea of Sustainable Intensification comes as a response to the challenge of avoiding resources such as land, water and energy being overexploited while increasing food production for an increasing demand from a growing global population. Sustainable Intensification means that farmers need to simultaneously increase yields and sustainably use limited natural resources, such as water. Within the agricultural sector water has a number of uses including irrigation, spraying, drinking for livestock and washing (vegetables, livestock buildings). In order to achieve Sustainable Intensification measures are needed that enable policy makers and managers to inform them about the relative performance of farms as well as of possible ways to improve such performance. We provide a benchmarking tool to assess water use (relative) efficiency at a farm level, suggest pathways to improve farm level productivity by identifying best practices for reducing excessive use of water for irrigation. Data Envelopment Analysis techniques including analysis of returns to scale were used to evaluate any excess in agricultural water use of 66 Horticulture Farms based on different River Basin Catchments across England. We found that farms in the sample can reduce on average water requirements by 35% to achieve the same output (Gross Margin) when compared to their peers on the frontier. In addition, 47% of the farms operate under increasing returns to scale, indicating that farms will need to develop economies of scale to achieve input cost savings. Regarding the adoption of specific water use efficiency management practices, we found that the use of a decision support tool, recycling water and the installation of trickle/drip/spray lines irrigation system has a positive impact on water use efficiency at a farm level whereas the use of other irrigation systems such as the overhead irrigation system was found to have a negative effect on water use efficiency.

Ant larval demand reduces aphid colony growth rates in an ant-aphid interaction

Ants often form mutualistic interactions with aphids, soliciting honeydew in return for protective services. Under certain circumstances, however, ants will prey upon aphids. In addition, in the presence of ants aphids may increase the quantity or quality of honeydew produced, which is costly. Through these mechanisms, ant attendance can reduce aphid colony growth rates. However, it is unknown whether demand from within the ant colony can affect the ant-aphid interaction. In a factorial experiment, we tested whether the presence of larvae in Lasius niger ant colonies affected the growth rate of Aphis fabae colonies. Other explanatory variables tested were the origin of ant colonies (two separate colonies were used) and previous diet (sugar only or sugar and protein). We found that the presence of larvae in the ant colony significantly reduced the growth rate of aphid colonies. Previous diet and colony origin did not affect aphid colony growth rates. Our results suggest that ant colonies balance the flow of two separate resources from aphid colonies- renewable sugars or a protein-rich meal, depending on demand from ant larvae within the nest. Aphid payoffs from the ant-aphid interaction may change on a seasonal basis, as the demand from larvae within the ant colony waxes and wanes.

Global climatology of surface water temperatures of large lakes by remote sensing

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) of 246 globally distributed large lakes were derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSR) for the period 1991–2011. The climatological cycles of mean LSWT derived from these data quantify on a global scale the responses of large lakes' surface temperatures to the annual cycle of forcing by solar radiation and the ambient meteorological conditions. LSWT cycles reflect the twice annual peak in net solar radiation for lakes between 1°S to 12°N. For lakes without a lake-mean seasonal ice cover, LSWT extremes exceed air temperatures by 0.5–1.7 °C for maximum and 0.7–1.9 °C for minimum temperature. The summer maximum LSWTs of lakes from 25°S to 35°N show a linear decrease with increasing altitude; −3.76 ± 0.17 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95), marginally lower than the corresponding air temperature decrease with altitude −4.15 ± 0.24 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95). Lake altitude of tropical lakes account for 0.78–0.83 (inline image) of the variation in the March to June LSWT–air temperature differences, with differences decreasing by 1.9 °C as the altitude increases from 500 to 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) We define an ‘open water phase’ as the length of time the lake-mean LSWT remains above 4 °C. There is a strong global correlation between the start and end of the lake-mean open water phase and the spring and fall 0 °C air temperature transition days, (inline image = 0.74 and 0.80, respectively), allowing for a good estimation of timing and length of the open water phase of lakes without LSWT observations. Lake depth, lake altitude and distance from coast further explain some of the inter-lake variation in the start and end of the open water phase.

Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land

A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.

Season changes in water quality and Sargassum biomass in Southwest Australia

Sargassum C. Agardh is one of the most diverse genera of marine macro-algae and commonly inhabits shallow tropical and sub-tropical waters. This study aimed to investigate the effect of seasonality and the associated water quality changes on the distribution, canopy cover, mean thallus length and the biomass of Sargassum beds around Point Peron, Shoalwater Islands Marine Park, Southwest Australia. Samples of Sargassum and seawater were collected every three months from summer 2012 to summer 2014 from four different reef zones. A combination of in situ observations and WorldView-2 satellite remote-sensing images were used to map the spatial distribution of Sargassum beds and other associated benthic habitats. The results demonstrated a strong seasonal variation in the environmental parameters, canopy cover, mean thallus length, and biomass of Sargassum, which were significantly (P < 0.05) influenced by the nutrient concentration (PO43-, NO3-, NH4+) and rainfall. However, no variation in any studied parameter was observed among the four reef zones. The highest Sargassum biomass peaks occurred between late spring and early summer (from September to January). The results provide essential information to guide effective conservation and management, as well as sustainable utilisation of this coastal marine renewable resource.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS): development and evaluation at two UK sites

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is evaluated at two locations in the UK: a dense urban site in the centre of London and a residential suburban site in Swindon. Eddy covariance observations of the turbulent fluxes are used to assess model performance over a twoyear period (2011-2013). The distinct characteristics of the sites mean their surface energy exchanges differ considerably. The model suggests the largest differences can be attributed to surface cover (notably the proportion of vegetated versus impervious area) and the additional energy supplied by human activities. SUEWS performs better in summer than winter, and better at the suburban site than the dense urban site. One reason for this is the bias towards suburban summer field campaigns in observational data used to parameterise this (and other) model(s). The suitability of model parameters (such as albedo, energy use and water use) for the UK sites is considered and, where appropriate, alternative values are suggested. An alternative parameterisation for the surface conductance is implemented, which permits greater soil moisture deficits before evaporation is restricted at non-irrigated sites. Accounting for seasonal variation in the estimation of storage heat flux is necessary to obtain realistic wintertime fluxes.

Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: Reconciling models and observations

The Amazon Basin is crucial to global circulatory and carbon patterns due to the large areal extent and large flux magnitude. Biogeophysical models have had difficulty reproducing the annual cycle of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon in some regions of the Amazon, generally simulating uptake during the wet season and efflux during seasonal drought. In reality, the opposite occurs. Observational and modeling studies have identified several mechanisms that explain the observed annual cycle, including: (1) deep soil columns that can store large water amount, (2) the ability of deep roots to access moisture at depth when near-surface soil dries during annual drought, (3) movement of water in the soil via hydraulic redistribution, allowing for more efficient uptake of water during the wet season, and moistening of near-surface soil during the annual drought, and (4) photosynthetic response to elevated light levels as cloudiness decreases during the dry season. We incorporate these mechanisms into the third version of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) both singly and collectively, and confront the results with observations. For the forest to maintain function through seasonal drought, there must be sufficient water storage in the soil to sustain transpiration through the dry season in addition to the ability of the roots to access the stored water. We find that individually, none of these mechanisms by themselves produces a simulation of the annual cycle of NEE that matches the observed. When these mechanisms are combined into the model, NEE follows the general trend of the observations, showing efflux during the wet season and uptake during seasonal drought.

Energy Efficiency through Thermal Energy Storage : Possibilities for the Swedish Building Stock

The need for heating and cooling in buildings constitutes a considerable part of the total energy use in a country and reducing this need is of outmost importance in order to reach national and international goals for reducing energy use and emissions. One important way of reaching these goals is to increase the proportion of renewable energy used for heating and cooling of buildings. Perhaps the largest obstacle with this is the often occurring mismatch between the availability of renewable energy and the need for heating or cooling, hindering this energy to be used directly. This is one of the problems that can be solved by using thermal energy storage (TES) in order to save the heat or cold from when it is available to when it is needed. This thesis is focusing on the combination of TES techniques and buildings to achieve increased energy efficiency for heating and cooling. Various techniques used for TES as well as the combination of TES in buildings have been investigated and summarized through an extensive literature review. A survey of the Swedish building stock was also performed in order to define building types common in Sweden. Within the scope of this thesis, the survey resulted in the selection of three building types, two single family houses and one office building, out of which the two residential buildings were used in a simulation case study of passive TES with increased thermal mass (both sensible and latent). The second case study presented in the thesis is an evaluation of an existing seasonal borehole storage of solar heat for a residential community. In this case, real measurement data was used in the evaluation and in comparisons with earlier evaluations. The literature reviews showed that using TES opens up potential for reduced energy demand and reduced peak heating and cooling loads as well as possibilities for an increased share of renewable energy to cover the energy demand. By using passive storage through increased thermal mass of a building it is also possible to reduce variations in the indoor temperature and especially reduce excess temperatures during warm periods, which could result in avoiding active cooling in a building that would otherwise need it. The analysis of the combination of TES and building types confirmed that TES has a significant potential for increased energy efficiency in buildings but also highlighted the fact that there is still much research required before some of the technologies can become commercially available. In the simulation case study it was concluded that only a small reduction in heating demand is possible with increased thermal mass, but that the time with indoor temperatures above 24 °C can be reduced by up to 20%. The case study of the borehole storage system showed that although the storage system worked as planned, heat losses in the rest of the system as well as some problems with the system operation resulted in a lower solar fraction than projected. The work presented within this thesis has shown that TES is already used successfully for many building applications (e.g. domestic hot water stores and water tanks for storing solar heat) but that there still is much potential in further use of TES. There are, however, barriers such as a need for more research for some storage technologies as well as storage materials, especially phase change material storage and thermochemical storage.

Evaluation of a high temperature solar thermal seasonal borehole storage

A solar thermal system with seasonal borehole storage for heating of a residential area in Anneberg, Sweden, approximately 10 km north of Stockholm, has been in operation since late 2002. Originally, the project was part of the EU THERMIE project “Large-scale Solar Heating Systems for Housing Developments” (REB/0061/97) and was the first solar heating plant in Europe with borehole storage in rock not utilizing a heat pump. Earlier evaluations of the system show lower performance than the preliminary simulation study, with residents complaining of a high use of electricity for domestic hot water (DHW) preparation and auxiliary heating. One explanation mentioned in the earlier evaluations is that the borehole storage had not yet reached “steady state” temperatures at the time of evaluation. Many years have passed since then and this paper presents results from a new evaluation. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the current performance of the system based on several key figures, as well as on system function based on available measurement data. The analysis show that though the borehole storage now has reached a quasi-steady state and operates as intended, the auxiliary electricity consumption is much higher than the original design values largely due to high losses in the distribution network, higher heat loads as well as lower solar gains.

On Real-Time Monitoring And Control For Efficient Management Of Drinking Water Networks: Barcelona Case Study

Drinking water utilities in urban areas are focused on finding smart solutions facing new challenges in their real-time operation because of limited water resources, intensive energy requirements, a growing population, a costly and ageing infrastructure, increasingly stringent regulations, and increased attention towards the environmental impact of water use. Such challenges force water managers to monitor and control not only water supply and distribution, but also consumer demand. This paper presents and discusses novel methodologies and procedures towards an integrated water resource management system based on advanced ICT technologies of automation and telecommunications for largely improving the efficiency of drinking water networks (DWN) in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. In particular, the paper addresses the first results of the European project EFFINET (FP7-ICT2011-8-318556) devoted to the monitoring and control of the DWN in Barcelona (Spain). Results are split in two levels according to different management objectives: (i) the monitoring level is concerned with all the aspects involved in the observation of the current state of a system and the detection/diagnosis of abnormal situations. It is achieved through sensors and communications technology, together with mathematical models; (ii) the control level is concerned with computing the best suitable and admissible control strategies for network actuators as to optimize a given set of operational goals related to the performance of the overall system. This level covers the network control (optimal management of water and energy) and the demand management (smart metering, efficient supply). The consideration of the Barcelona DWN as the case study will allow to prove the general applicability of the proposed integrated ICT solutions and their effectiveness in the management of DWN, with considerable savings of electricity costs and reduced water loss while ensuring the high European standards of water quality to citizens.