879 resultados para Seasonal Incidence


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A study was conducted to determine the incidence of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis and other Salmonella serovars on eggshell, egg contents and on egg-storing trays. A total of 492 eggs and 82 egg-storing trays were examined over a period of 1 year from different retail outlets of a residential area of Coimbatore city, South India. Salmonella contamination was recorded in 38 of 492 (7.7%) eggs out of which 29 was in eggshell (5.9%) and 9 in egg contents (1.8%). Around 7.5% of the egg-storing trays were also found to be contaminated with Salmonella. Serotyping of the Salmonella strains showed that 89.7% of the strains from eggshell, 100% of the strains from egg contents and 71.4% of the strains from egg-storing trays were Salmonella Enteritidis. Other serovarvars encountered were S. Cerro, S. Molade and S. Mbandaka from eggshell and S. Cerro from egg-storing trays. Seasonal variations in the prevalence pattern were identified with, a higher prevalence during monsoon months followed by post-monsoon and premonsoon. Further examination of the Salmonella strains was carried out by testing their antimicrobial sensitivity against 10 commonly used antimicrobials. Results revealed high prevalence of multiple antimicrobial resistance among these strains suggesting possible prior selection by use of antimicrobials in egg production

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The incidence of salmonella and escherichia coli in chicken retail outlets in a residential area of coimbatore, Tamilnadu India was studied with the view that accessories may be a source of cross contamination.Accessories like cages,knives ,chopping boards weighing balance trays and the hands of butcher were examined.A toatal of 14 salmonella as well as 31 E.coli were isolated from different sources. The incidence of E.coli was higher than that of Salmonella.The highest incidence of Salmonella was found in chopping boards and the maximum level of E.Coli was detected in cages.

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Five hundred and thirty six samples offishes and 278 prawn samples from the major fish market ofCoimbatore, South India, were analysed for the prevalence of Aeromonas hydrophila over a period of2 years (June 1997–May 1999). The prevalence level of A. hydrophila varied from 17.62% in prawns to 33.58% in fishes. More than 30% of the popular table fishes such as Sardinella longiceps, Rastrelliger kanagurta, Mugil cephalus and Caranx sexfasciatus were tested positive for this organism. Among the different species of the prawns analysed, Penaeus semisulcatus showed higher incidence (23.52%). Seasonal variation in the prevalence levels of A. hydrophila in fish and prawns revealed a higher prevalence during the monsoon season during 1997–98 and 1998–99. Of the different body parts of the fishes analysed for A. hydrophila, the intestinal samples showed higher prevalence (38.43%), followed by body surface (32.46%) and gill (29.10%). Considering the psychrotrophic nature and role of A. hydrophila as a pathogen ofemerging importance, the considerably high levels ofthis organism in a popular food item such as fish and prawn raises serious concern

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The mangroves of Kerala are fast disappearing due to developmental activities.There are very few studies conducted in the chemical aspects of these ecosystems.The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial and seasonal variation of hydrographical as well as nutrients in mangrove ecosystems along Kerala coast. Five sampling sites least intervened by industries were selected for the study. Sampling was done for a period of six months in monthly intervals. A monsoonal hike of dissolved nutrients was observed in all ecosystems except in the constructed mangrove wetland. The constructed wetland exhibited a different hydrography and nutrient level in all seasons. The mangrove forest in this area consists of the species Bruguiera gymnorrhiza which has been planted since forty years.

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The microalgal community as primary producers has to play a significant role in the biotic and abitoic interactions of any aquatic ecosystem. Whenever a community is exposed to a pollutant, responses can occur because individuals acclimate to pollutant caused changes and selection can occur favouring resistant genotypes within a population and selection among species can result in changes in community structure. The microalgal community of industrial effluent treatment systems are continuously exposed to pollutants and there is little data available on the structure and seasonal variation of microalgal community of industrial effluent holding ponds, especially of a complex effluent like that of refinery. The aim of the present study was to investigate the annual variation in the ecology, biomass, productivity and community structure of the algal community of a refinery effluent holding pond. The results of the study showed the pond to be a eutrophic system with a resistant microalgal community with distinct seasonal variation in species composition

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The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

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En este estudio presentamos una experiencia llevada a cabo con estudiantes de la asignatura “Psicología de la Educación” de diferentes centros universitarios. Tomando como marco de referencia las teorías constructivistas del aprendizaje, el objetivo de nuestro trabajo se centra en comprobar la incidencia de la utilización de diferentes estrategias de enseñanza por parte del profesor y de determinadas estrategias de aprendizaje en el proceso de registrar la información por parte de los estudiantes, en la significatividad del aprendizaje. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que en los grupos donde los profesores han utilizado estrategias de enseñanza diferentes a la clase magistral, se ha producido un cambio positivo en las respuestas de los estudiantes o se ha mantenido el mismo nivel, mientras que el grupo donde se ha utilizado una metodología magistral, el nivel de respuesta es inferior. Así mismo, hemos podido observar como los grupos de estudiantes que utilizan las estrategias de aprendizaje seleccionadas para tomar apuntes mejoran su nivel de respuestas, lo cual no se produce en el grupo control

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La incidencia de la tosferina ha mostrado un incremento en los últimos años; afectando predominantemente a los niños menores de 1 año, adolescentes y adultos. En el 2005 el Comité Asesor de Prácticas en Inmunización (ACIP) recomendó administrar una dosis de refuerzo de la vacuna acelular antipertussis a los adolescentes. Esta estrategia ha sido adoptada por distintos países. Sin embargo hasta el momento no existe una revisión sistemática que evalúe la efectividad de esta medida de prevención primaria. Métodos: Revisión sistemática de la literatura de artículos acerca de la efectividad de la vacuna acelular antipertussis como dosis de refuerzo en adolescentes. Resultados: La búsqueda inicial arrojó un total de 121 resultados, de los cuales solo 4 cumplieron los criterios de selección. Se evaluó en éstos, la inmunogenicidad generada contra tétanos y difteria por la vacuna Tdap vs Td con resultados significativos y similares. Además se documentó la respuesta inmunológica protectora generada por la Tdap contra tosferina. En cuanto a la reactogenicidad, en general fue baja. Discusión: La vacuna Tdap genera inmunogenicidad similar a la Td contra tétanos y difteria. Además proporciona adecuada protección contra la tosferina como dosis de refuerzo en los adolescentes. Conclusión: La evidencia disponible sugiere que se puede recomendar la vacuna Tdap como dosis de refuerzo en adolescentes entre los 10 y los 18 años de edad por su baja reactogenicidad y adecuada inmunogenicidad contra tétanos, difteria y B. Pertussis.

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This paper seeks the determine the ways in which anomalous decisions derived from the particularization and constitutionalization of environmental law can arise given the general theory of administrative action. This is seen through the lens of a study and characterization of administrative decisions issued by the Regional Autonomous Corporation of Cundinamarca –CAR- within the superficial water concessions procedure. It also discusses the conceptual contents of these licenses.

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El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

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Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools