The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Extraction and purification of total RNA from banana tissues (small scale)

Introduction. This protocol aims at preparing total RNA for gene expression analysis by Northern blots, RT-PCR and real-time quantitative PCR; cDNA isolation by RTPCR; and cDNA library construction. The principle, key advantages, starting plant material, time required for obtaining total RNA and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. This part describes the required materials and the 27 steps necessary for preparing RNA from peel and pulp fruit tissue: preparation of plant tissue powder, preparation of the complete RNA extraction buffer and isolation of RNA from ground banana fruit tissue. Results. Extraction of total RNA by the method described makes it possible to achieve electrophoresis under denatured conditions and in vitro reverse transcription. An example for Northern blot analysis is illustrated.

TRAVELLING THROUGH PITCH SPACE SPEEDS UP MUSICAL TIME

SEVERAL MODELS OF TIME ESTIMATION HAVE BEEN developed in psychology; a few have been applied to music. In the present study, we assess the influence of the distances travelled through pitch space on retrospective time estimation. Participants listened to an isochronous chord sequence of 20-s duration. They were unexpectedly asked to reproduce the time interval of the sequence. The harmonic structure of the stimulus was manipulated so that the sequence either remained in the same key (CC) or travelled through a closely related key (CFC) or distant key (CGbC). Estimated times were shortened when the sequence modulated to a very distant key. This finding is discussed in light of Lerdahl's Tonal Pitch Space Theory (2001), Firmino and Bueno's Expected Development Fraction Model (in press), and models of time estimation.

ESPECTRA: Searching the Bipolar Spectrum in Eating Disorder patients

Background: Bipolar Disorder (BD) is a chronic, recurrent and highly prevalent illness. Despite the need for correct diagnosis to allow proper treatment, studies have shown that reaching a diagnosis can take up to ten years due to the lack of recognition of the broader presentations of BD. Frequent comorbidities with other psychiatric disorders are a major cause of misdiagnosis and warrant thorough evaluation. Methods/Design: ESPECTRA (Occurrence of Bipolar Spectrum Disorders in Eating Disorder Patients) is a single-site cross-sectional study involving a comparison group, designed to evaluate the prevalence of bipolar spectrum in an eating disorder sample. Women aged 18-45 years will be evaluated using the SCID-P and Zurich criteria for diagnosis and the HAM-D, YOUNG, SCI-MOODS, HCL-32, BIS-11, BSQ, WHOQoL and EAS instruments for rating symptoms and measuring clinical correlates. Discussion: The classificatory systems in psychiatry are based on categorical models that have been criticized for simplifying the diagnosis and leading to an increase in comorbidities. Some dimensional approaches have been proposed aimed at improving the validity and reliability of psychiatric disorder assessments, especially in conditions with high rates of comorbidity such as BD and Eating Disorder (ED). The Bipolar Spectrum (BS) remains under-recognized in clinical practice and its definition is not well established in current diagnostic guidelines. Broader evaluation of psychiatric disorders combining categorical and dimensional views could contribute to a more realistic understanding of comorbidities and help toward establishing a prognosis.

The Borg Scale as an Important Tool of Self-Monitoring and Self-Regulation of Exercise Prescription in Heart Failure Patients During Hydrotherapy - A Randomized Blinded Controlled Trial

Background: The Borg Scale may be a useful tool for heart failure patients to self-monitor and self-regulate exercise on land or in water (hydrotherapy) by maintaining the heart rate (HR) between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point. Methods and Results: Patients performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test to determine their anaerobic threshold/respiratory compensation points. The percentage of the mean HR during the exercise session in relation to the anaerobic threshold HR (%EHR-AT), in relation to the respiratory compensation point (%EHR-RCP), in relation to the peak HR by the exercise test (%EHR-Peak) and in relation to the maximum predicted HR (%EHR-Predicted) was calculated. Next, patients were randomized into the land or water exercise group. One blinded investigator instructed the patients in each group to exercise at a level between ""relatively easy and slightly tiring"". The mean HR throughout the 30-min exercise session was recorded. The %EHR-AT and %EHR-Predicted did not differ between the land and water exercisegroups, but they differed in the %EHR-RCP (95 +/- 7 to 86 +/- 7. P<0.001) and in the %EHR-Peak (85 +/- 8 to 78 +/- 9, P=0.007). Conclusions: Exercise guided by the Borg scale maintains the patient's HR between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point (ie, in the exercise training zone). (Circ J 2009; 73: 1871-1876)

Five-year follow-up of angiographic disease progression after medicine, angioplasty, or surgery

Background: Progression of atherosclerosis in coronary artery disease is observed through consecutive angiograms. Prognosis of this progression in patients randomized to different treatments has not been established. This study compared progression of coronary artery disease in native coronary arteries in patients undergoing surgery, angioplasty, or medical treatment. Methods: Patients (611) with stable multivessel coronary artery disease and preserved ventricular function were randomly assigned to CABG, PCI, or medical treatment alone (MT). After 5-year follow-up, 392 patients (64%) underwent new angiography. Progression was considered a new stenosis of >= 50% in an arterial segment previously considered normal or an increased grade of previous stenosis > 20% in nontreated vessels. Results: Of the 392 patients, 136 underwent CABG, 146 PCI, and 110 MT. Baseline characteristics were similar among treatment groups, except for more smokers and statin users in the MT group, more hypertensives and lower LDL-cholesterol levels in the CABG group, and more angina in the PCI group at study entry. Analysis showed greater progression in at least one native vessel in PCI patients (84%) compared with CABG (57%) and MT (74%) patients (p < 0.001). LAD coronary territory had higher progression compared with LCX and RCA (P < 0.001). PCI treatment, hypertension, male sex, and previous MI were independent risk factors for progression. No statistical difference existed between coronary events and the development of progression. Conclusion: The angioplasty treatment conferred greater progression in native coronary arteries, especially in the left anterior descending territories and treated vessels. The progression was independently associated with hypertension, male sex, and previous myocardial infarction.

Opportunity for catch-up HPV vaccination in young women after first delivery

Background Early age at first delivery has been identified as a risk factor for high-risk HPV-type infection and cervical cancer development. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. During June 2006 to February 2007, 301 women aged 15-24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Detection of HPV DNA in cervical specimens was performed using a standardised PCR protocol with PGMY09/11 primers. The association of selected factors with HPV infection was assessed by using a Generalised Linear Model. Results HPV DNA was detected in 58.5% (95% CI 52.7% to 64.0%) of the enrolled young women. The most common types of HPV found were: HPV16, HPV51, HPV52, HPV58 and HPV71. The overall prevalence of HPV types targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines was: HPV 16-12.0%, HPV 18-2.3% and HPV 6 and 11 4.3%. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, p for trend=0.02) and smoking habits were independently associated with HPV infection. Conclusions The findings show that these young primiparous women had high cervical HPV prevalence, suggesting that this is a high-risk group for cervical cancer development. Nevertheless, 17.3% were positive for any of the four HPV types included in HPV vaccines (HPV6, 11, 16 or 18), with 13.3% positive for HPV 16 or 18 and only 1.0% having both vaccine related-oncogenic HPV types. Thus, young primiparous women could benefit from catch-up HPV vaccination programmes.

Maternal immunization with ovalbumin prevents neonatal allergy development and up-regulates inhibitory receptor Fc gamma RIIB expression on B cells

Background: Preconception allergen immunization prevents neonatal allergen sensitization in mice by a complex interaction between regulatory cells/factors and antibodies. The present study assessed the influence of maternal immunization with ovalbumin (OVA) on the immune response of 3 day-old and 3 week-old offspring immunized or non-immunized with OVA and evaluated the effect of IgG treatment during fetal development or neonatal period. Results: Maternal immunization with OVA showed increased levels of Fc gamma RIIb expression in splenic B cells of neonates, which were maintained for up to 3 weeks and not affected by additional postnatal OVA immunization. Maternal immunization also exerted a down-modulatory effect on both IL-4 and IFN-gamma-secreting T cells and IL-4 and IL-12-secreting B cells. Furthermore, immunized neonates from immunized mothers showed a marked inhibition of antigen-specifc IgE Ab production and lowered Th2/Th1 cytokine levels, whereas displaying enhanced Fc gamma RIIb expression on B cells. These offspring also showed reduced antigen-specific proliferative response and lowered B cell responsiveness. Moreover, in vitro evaluation revealed an impairment of B cell activation upon engagement of B cell antigen receptor by IgG from OVA-immunized mice. Finally, in vivo IgG transference during pregnancy or breastfeeding revealed that maternal Ab transference was able to increase regulatory cytokines, such as IL-10, in the prenatal stage; yet only the postnatal treatment prevented neonatal sensitization. None of the IgG treatments induced immunological changes in the offspring, as it was observed for those from OVA-immunized mothers. Conclusion: Maternal immunization upregulates the inhibitory Fc gamma RIIb expression on offspring B cells, avoiding skewed Th2 response and development of allergy. These findings contribute to the advancement of prophylactic strategies to prevent allergic diseases in early life.

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases in Brazilian children: follow-up at school age of two Brazilian birth cohorts of the 1990's

Background: Few cohort studies have been conducted in low and middle-income countries to investigate non-communicable diseases among school-aged children. This article aims to describe the methodology of two birth cohorts, started in 1994 in Ribeirao Preto (RP), a more developed city, and in 1997/98 in Sao Luis (SL), a less developed town. Methods: Prevalences of some non-communicable diseases during the first follow-up of these cohorts were estimated and compared. Data on singleton live births were obtained at birth (2858 in RP and 2443 in SL). The follow-up at school age was conducted in RP in 2004/05, when the children were 9-11 years old and in SL in 2005/06, when the children were 7-9 years old. Follow-up rates were 68.7% in RP (790 included) and 72.7% in SL (673 participants). The groups of low (<2500 g) and high (>= 4250 g) birthweight were oversampled and estimates were corrected by weighting. Results: In the more developed city there was a higher percentage of non-nutritive sucking habits (69.1% vs 47.9%), lifetime bottle use (89.6% vs 68.3%), higher prevalence of primary headache in the last 15 days (27.9% vs 13.0%), higher positive skin tests for allergens (44.3% vs 25.3%) and higher prevalence of overweight (18.2% vs 3.6%), obesity (9.5% vs 1.8%) and hypertension (10.9% vs 4.6%). In the less developed city there was a larger percentage of children with below average cognitive function (28.9% vs 12.2%), mental health problems (47.4% vs 38.4%), depression (21.6% vs 6.0%) and underweight (5.8% vs 3.6%). There was no difference in the prevalence of bruxism, recurrent abdominal pain, asthma and bronchial hyperresponsiveness between cities. Conclusions: Some non-communicable diseases were highly prevalent, especially in the more developed city. Some high rates suggest that the burden of non-communicable diseases will be high in the future, especially mental health problems.

Low-Level Laser Therapy in Burning Mouth Syndrome Patients: A Pilot Study

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of low-level laser therapy (LLLT) on the treatment of burning mouth syndrome (BMS). In addition, the laser effect was compared on the different affected oral sites. Materials and Methods: Eleven subjects with a total of 25 sites (tongue, lower lip, upper lip, and palate) affected by a burning sensation were selected. The affected areas were irradiated once a week for three consecutive weeks with an infrared laser (lambda = 790 nm). The probe was kept in contact with the tissue, and the mucosal surface was scanned during the irradiation. The exposure time was calculated based on the fluence of 6 J/cm(2), the output power of 120 mW, and the area to be treated. Burning intensity was recorded through a visual analog scale before and after the treatment and at the 6-week follow-up. The percentage of the improvement in symptoms was also obtained. Results: Burning intensity at the end of the laser therapy was statistically lower than at the beginning (p < 0.01). Patients reported an 80.4% reduction in the intensity of symptoms after laser treatment. There was no statistical difference between the end of the treatment and the 6-week follow-up, except for the tongue site. Conclusion: Under the investigated parameters, infrared LLLT proved to be a valuable alternative for BMS treatment, providing a significant and lasting reduction in symptoms.

Acupuncture and Temporomandibular Disorders: A 3-Month Follow-up EMG Study

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the levels of electromyographic (EMG) activation and maximal molar bite force before and after a 3-month acupuncture therapy in individuals with temporomandibular disorder (Helkimo Index) from a pool of subjects attending the Special Care Course of the Ribeirao Preto Dental School, Sao Paulo University, Brazil. Design: All 17 patients, aged between 37 and 50 years (44.2 +/- 4.84 years), with an average weight of 71 +/- 9.45 kg and height of 1.64 +/- 0.07 m, were clinically examined with regard to pain and dysfunctions of the masticatory system. The temporomandibular acupuncture points of needling were IG4, E6, E7, B2, VB14, VB20, ID18, ID19, F3, E36, VB34, E44, R3, and HN3. EMG measures were acquired before and after the treatment using a MyoSystem-BR1 electromyographer. The data collected at rest, protrusion, left and right laterality, and clenching were normalized by maximum voluntary contraction. Maximal bite force in right and left molar regions were registered using a dynamometer with a capacity of up to 1000 N, adapted for oral conditions. The highest value out of three recordings was considered to be the individual's maximal bite force. The results were statistically analyzed using the paired t test (SPSS version 15.0) during the comparison before and after treatment. Results: We found decreased EMG activity at rest, protrusion, left and right laterality, and clenching; as well as increased values of maximal bite force after acupuncture treatment. Conclusions: Acupuncture promoted alterations in the EMG activity of masticatory muscles, increased maximal molar bite force, and led to remission of the subjects' painful symptomatology.

New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s) Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey

We present a re-analysis of the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, which benefits from the infrared flux method to improve the accuracy of the derived stellar effective temperatures and uses the latter to build a consistent and improved metallicity scale. Metallicities are calibrated on high-resolution spectroscopy and checked against four open clusters and a moving group, showing excellent consistency. The new temperature and metallicity scales provide a better match to theoretical isochrones, which are used for a Bayesian analysis of stellar ages. With respect to previous analyses, our stars are on average 100 K hotter and 0.1 dex more metal rich, which shift the peak of the metallicity distribution function around the solar value. From Stromgren photometry we are able to derive for the first time a proxy for [alpha/Fe] abundances, which enables us to perform a tentative dissection of the chemical thin and thick disc. We find evidence for the latter being composed of an old, mildly but systematically alpha-enhanced population that extends to super solar metallicities, in agreement with spectroscopic studies. Our revision offers the largest existing kinematically unbiased sample of the solar neighbourhood that contains full information on kinematics, metallicities, and ages and thus provides better constraints on the physical processes relevant in the build-up of the Milky Way disc, enabling a better understanding of the Sun in a Galactic context.

The viscosity parameter's dependence on the profile of the disk scale height

It is shown that, for accretion disks, the height scale is a constant whenever hydrostatic equilibrium and the subsonic turbulence regime hold in the disk. In order to have a variable height scale, processes are needed that contribute an extra term to the continuity equation. This contribution makes the viscosity parameter much greater in the outer region and much smaller in the inner region. Under these circumstances, turbulence is the presumable source of viscosity in the disk.

PRECESSING JETS AND X-RAY BUBBLES FROM NGC 1275 (3C 84) IN THE PERSEUS GALAXY CLUSTER: A VIEW FROM THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

The Perseus galaxy cluster is known to present multiple and misaligned pairs of cavities seen in X-rays, as well as twisted kiloparsec-scale jets at radio wavelengths; both morphologies suggest that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) jet is subject to precession. In this work, we performed three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between a precessing AGN jet and the warm intracluster medium plasma, whose dynamics are coupled to a Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter gravitational potential. The AGN jet inflates cavities that become buoyantly unstable and rise up out of the cluster core. We found that under certain circumstances precession can originate multiple pairs of bubbles. For the physical conditions in the Perseus cluster, multiple pairs of bubbles are obtained for a jet precession opening angle >40 degrees acting for at least three precession periods, reproducing both radio and X-ray maps well. Based on such conditions, assuming that the Bardeen-Peterson effect is dominant, we studied the evolution of the precession opening angle of this system. We were able to constrain the ratio between the accretion disk and the black hole angular momenta as 0.7-1.4. We were also able to constrain the present precession angle to 30 degrees-40 degrees, as well as the approximate age of the inflated bubbles to 100-150 Myr.

A FIRST CONSTRAINT ON THE THICK DISK SCALE LENGTH: DIFFERENTIAL RADIAL ABUNDANCES IN K GIANTS AT GALACTOCENTRIC RADII 4, 8, AND 12 kpc

Based on high-resolution spectra obtained with the MIKE spectrograph on the Magellan telescopes, we present detailed elemental abundances for 20 red giant stars in the outer Galactic disk, located at Galactocentric distances between 9 and 13 kpc. The outer disk sample is complemented with samples of red giants from the inner Galactic disk and the solar neighborhood, analyzed using identical methods. For Galactocentric distances beyond 10 kpc, we only find chemical patterns associated with the local thin disk, even for stars far above the Galactic plane. Our results show that the relative densities of the thick and thin disks are dramatically different from the solar neighborhood, and we therefore suggest that the radial scale length of the thick disk is much shorter than that of the thin disk. We make a first estimate of the thick disk scale length of L(thick) = 2.0 kpc, assuming L(thin) = 3.8 kpc for the thin disk. We suggest that radial migration may explain the lack of radial age, metallicity, and abundance gradients in the thick disk, possibly also explaining the link between the thick disk and the metal-poor bulge.