Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Rho and vascular disease

The Rho family GTPases are regulatory molecules that link surface receptors to organisation of the actin cytoskeleton and play major roles in fundamental cellular processes. In the vasculature Rho signalling pathways are intimately involved in the regulation of endothelial barrier function, inflammation and transendothelial leukocyte migration, platelet activation, thrombosis and oxidative stress, as well as smooth muscle contraction, migration, proliferation and differentiation, and are thus implicated in many of the changes associated with atherogenesis. Indeed, it is believed that many of the beneficial, non-lipid lowering effects of statins occur as a result of their ability to inhibit Rho protein activation. Conversely, the Rho proteins can have beneficial effects on the vasculature, including the promotion of endothelial repair and the maintenance of SMC differentiation. Further identification of the mechanisms by which these proteins and their effectors act in the vasculature should lead to therapies that specifically target only the adverse effects of Rho signalling. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-time reverse transcriptase PCR for the endogenous koala retrovirus reveals an association between plasma viral load and neoplastic disease in koalas

Koala retrovirus (KoRV) is a newly described endogenous retrovirus and is unusual in that inserts comprise a full-length replication competent genome. As koalas are known to suffer from an extremely high incidence of leukaemia/lymphoma, the association between this retrovirus and disease in koalas was examined. Using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase PCR it was demonstrated that KoRV RNA levels in plasma are significantly increased in animals suffering from leukaemia or lymphoma when compared with healthy animals. Increased levels of KoRV were also seen for animals with clinical chlamydiosis. A significant positive association between viral RNA levels and age was also demonstrated. Real-time PCR demonstrated as much as 5 log variation in KoRV proviral DNA levels in genomic DNA extracted from whole blood from different animals. Taken together these data indicate that KoRV is an active endogenous retrovirus and suggests that it may be causally linked to neoplastic disease in koalas.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a kidney and cardiovascular disease treatment program in an Australian aboriginal population

The objective of the study was to assess, from a health service perspective, whether a systematic program to modify kidney and cardiovascular disease reduced the costs of treating end-stage kidney failure. The participants in the study were 1,800 aboriginal adults with hypertension, diabetes with microalbuminuria or overt albuminuria, and overt albuminuria, living on two islands in the Northern Territory of Australia during 1995 to 2000. Perindopril was the primary treatment agent, and other medications were also used to control blood pressure. Control of glucose and lipid levels were attempted, and health education was offered. Evaluation of program resource use and costs for follow-up periods was done at 3 and 4.7 years. On an intention-to-treat basis, the number of dialysis starts and dialysis-years avoided were estimated by comparing the fate of the treatment group with that of historical control subjects, matched for disease severity, who were followed in the before the treatment program began. For the first three years, an estimated 11.6 person-years of dialysis were avoided, and over 4.7 years, 27.7 person-years of dialysis were avoided. The net cost of the program was $1,210 more per person per year than status quo care, and dialyses avoided gave net savings of $1.0 million at 3 years and $3.4 million at 4.6 years. The treatment program provided significant health benefit and impressive cost savings in dialysis avoided. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Reoperative parathyroid surgery: The importance of ectopic location and multigland disease

Background: Despite the availability of expert surgeons and preoperative imaging investigations, some patients require reoperation for persistent or recurrent hyperparathyroidisms. Method: Fifty consecutive patients were reviewed. Results: There were 28 persistent cases (24 primary, 4 secondary) and 22 recurrent cases (15 primary, 7 secondary) and 98% had successful surgical treatment. Multigland disease was present in 24 of 39 (62%) of primary cases, 11 of 24 persistent and 13 of 15 recurrent (P < 0.02). Four patients in the recurrent primary group had multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1, whereas the other 20 primary patients had sporadic multigland disease. Multigland disease was present in all secondary cases and was a very important factor in this entire series of patients (70%). Regrowth of a remnant of a gland biopsied or partially resected at an earlier operation was the cause of recurrence in 12 of 15 primary and 2 of 7 secondary cases (P < 0.05). The site of missed glands in persistent disease was ectopic in 60%. Ectopic glands were found in the following sites: intrathyroidal 10 (8 inferior and 2 superior), intrathymic 9, posterior mediastinum 4, base of skull 2, carotid sheath 1 and supernumerary 5. Investigations to locate missing glands were positive in 28 of 43 sestamibi scans (65%), 14 of 34 ultrasound scans (41%), 10 of 24 computed tomography scans (42%) and 11 of 13 selective venous sampling tests (85%). Conclusion: Some persistent cases are unavoidable because of ectopic locations and some recurrences are inevitable because of multigland disease.