Stochastic analysis of the VEGF receptor response curve

Recently, an analysis of the response curve of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor and its application to cancer therapy was described in [T. Alarcón, and K. Page, J. R. Soc. Lond. Interface 4, 283–304 (2007)]. The analysis is significantly extended here by demonstrating that an alternative computational strategy, namely the Krylov FSP algorithm for the direct solution of the chemical master equation, is feasible for the study of the receptor model. The new method allows us to further investigate the hypothesis of symmetry in the stochastic fluctuations of the response. Also, by augmenting the original model with a single reversible reaction we formulate a plausible mechanism capable of realizing a bimodal response, which is reported experimentally but which is not exhibited by the original model. The significance of these findings for mechanisms of tumour resistance to antiangiogenic therapy is discussed.

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Development of a high-level gene expression system for the production of bioplastics in sugarcane

Despite various approaches, the production of biodegradable plastics such as polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) in transgenic plants has met with limited success due largely to low expression levels. Even in the few instances where high levels of protein expression have been reported, the transgenic plants have been stunted indicating PHB is phytotoxic (Poirier 2002). This PhD describes the application of a novel virus-based gene expression technology, termed InPAct („In Plant Activation.), for the production of PHB in tobacco and sugarcane. InPAct is based on the rolling circle replication mechanism by which circular ssDNA viruses replicate and provides a system for controlled, high-level gene expression. Based on these features, InPAct was thought to represent an ideal system to enable the controlled, high-level expression of the three phb genes (phbA, phbB and phbC) required for PHB production in sugarcane at a preferred stage of plant growth. A Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TbYDV)-based InPAct-phbA vector, as well as linear vectors constitutively expressing phbB and phbC were constructed and different combinations were used to transform tobacco leaf discs. A total of four, eight, three and three phenotypically normal tobacco lines were generated from discs transformed with InPAct-phbA, InPAct-phbA + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC- 35S T, p1300-35S P-phbA-NOS T + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T and InPAct-GUS, respectively. To determine whether the InPAct cassette could be activated in the presence of the TbYDV Rep, leaf samples from the eight InPActphbA + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T plants were agroinfiltrated with p1300- TbYDV-Rep/RepA. Three days later, successful activation was indicated by the detection of episomes using both PCR and Southern analysis. Leaf discs from the eight InPAct-phbA + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T transgenic plant lines were agroinfiltrated with p1300-TbYDV-Rep/RepA and leaf tissue was collected ten days post-infiltration and examined for the presence of PHB granules. Confocal microscopy and TEM revealed the presence of typical PHB granules in five of the eight lines, thus demonstrating the functionality of InPActbased PHB production in tobacco. However, analysis of leaf extracts by HPLC failed to detect the presence of PHB suggesting only very low level expression levels. Subsequent molecular analysis of three lines revealed low levels of correctly processed mRNA from the catalase intron contained within the InPAct cassette and also the presence of cryptic splice sites within the intron. In an attempt to increase expression levels, new InPAct-phb cassettes were generated in which the castorbean catalase intron was replaced with a synthetic intron (syntron). Further, in an attempt to both increase and better control Rep/RepA-mediated activation of InPAct cassettes, Rep/RepA expression was placed under the control of a stably integrated alc switch. Leaf discs from a transgenic tobacco line (Alc ML) containing 35S P-AlcR-AlcA P-Rep/RepA were supertransformed with InPAct-phbAsyn or InPAct-GUSsyn using Agrobacterium and three plants (lines) were regenerated for each construct. Analysis of the RNA processing of the InPAct-phbAsyn cassette revealed highly efficient and correct splicing of the syntron, thus supporting its inclusion within the InPAct system. To determine the efficiency of the alc switch to activate InPAct, leaf material from the three Alc ML + InPAct-phbAsyn lines was either agroinfiltrated with 35S P-Rep/RepA or treated with ethanol. Unexpectedly, episomes were detected not only in the infiltrated and ethanol treated samples, but also in non-treated samples. Subsequent analysis of transgenic Alc ML + InPAct-GUS lines, confirmed that the alc switch was leaky in tissue culture. Although this was shown to be reversible once plants were removed from the tissue culture environment, it made the regeneration of Alc ML + InPAct-phbsyn plant lines extremely difficult, due to unintentional Rep expression and therefore high levels of phb expression and phytotoxic PHB production. Two Alc ML + InPAct-phbAsyn + p1300-TaBV P-phbB/phbC-35S T transgenic lines were able to be regenerated, and these were acclimatised, alcohol-treated and analysed. Although episome formation was detected as late as 21 days post activation, no PHB was detected in the leaves of any plants using either microscopy or HPLC, suggesting the presence of a corrupt InPAct-phbA cassette in both lines. The final component of this thesis involved the application of both the alc switch and the InPAct systems to sugarcane in an attempt to produce PHB. Initial experiments using transgenic Alc ML + InPAct-GUS lines indicated that the alc system was not functional in sugarcane under the conditions tested. The functionality of the InPAct system, independent of the alc gene switch, was subsequently examined by bombarding the 35S Rep/RepA cassette into leaf and immature leaf whorl cells derived from InPAct-GUS transgenic sugarcane plants. No GUS expression was observed in leaf tissue, whereas weak and irregular GUS expression was observed in immature leaf whorl tissue derived from two InPAct- GUS lines and two InPAct-GUS + 35S P-AlcR-AlcA P-GUS lines. The most plausible reason to explain the inconsistent and low levels of GUS expression in leaf whorls is a combination of low numbers of sugarcane cells in the DNA replication-conducive S-phase and the irregular and random nature of sugarcane cells bombarded with Rep/RepA. This study details the first report to develop a TbYDV-based InPAct system under control of the alc switch to produce PHB in tobacco and sugarcane. Despite the inability to detect quantifiable levels of PHB levels in either tobacco or sugarcane, the findings of this study should nevertheless assist in the further development of both the InPAct system and the alc system, particularly for sugarcane and ultimately lead to an ethanol-inducible InPAct gene expression system for the production of bioplastics and other proteins of commercial value in plants.

N-Aryl stilbazolium dyes as sensitizers for solar cells

Eight new N-arylstilbazolium chromophores with electron donating –NR2 (R = Me or Ph) substituents have been synthesized via Knoevenagel condensations and isolated as their PF6− salts. These compounds have been characterized by using various techniques including 1H NMR and IR spectroscopies and electrospray mass spectrometry. UV–vis absorption spectra recorded in acetonitrile are dominated by intense, low energy π → π* intramolecular charge-transfer (ICT) bands, and replacing Me with Ph increases the ICT energies. Cyclic voltammetric studies show irreversible reduction processes, together with oxidation waves that are irreversible for R = Me, but reversible for R = Ph. Single crystal X-ray structures have been determined for three of the methyl ester-substituted stilbazolium salts and for the Cl− salts of their picolinium precursors. Time-dependent density functional theory calculations afford reasonable predictions of ICT energies, but greater rigour is necessary for –NPh2 derivatives. The four new acid-functionalized dyes give moderate sensitization efficiencies (ca. 0.2%) when using TiO2-based photoanodes, with relatively higher values for R = Ph vs Me, while larger efficiencies (up to 0.8%) are achieved with ZnO substrates.

Outsourcing strategies for radical innovations: does industry clockspeed make a difference?

Purpose – To determine whether or not clockspeed is an important variable in outsourcing strategies throughout the development of radical innovations. Design/methodology/approach – An internet-based survey of manufacturing firms from all over the world. Findings – An industry's clockspeed does not play a significant role in the success or failure of a particular outsourcing strategy for a radical innovation. Research limitations/implications – Conclusions from earlier research in this area are not necessarily industry-specific. Practical implications – Lessons learned via previous investigations about the computer industry need not be confined to that sector. Vertical integration may be a more robust outsourcing strategy when developing a radical innovation in industries of all clockspeeds. Originality/value – Previous research efforts in this field focused on a single technology jump, but this approach may have overlooked a potentially important variable: industry clockspeed. Thus, this investigation explores whether clockspeed is an important factor.

Bayesian models for the determination of resonant frequencies in a DI diesel engine

A time series method for the determination of combustion chamber resonant frequencies is outlined. This technique employs the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to infer parameters in a chosen model of the data. The development of the model is included and the resonant frequency is characterised as a function of time. Potential applications for cycle-by-cycle analysis are discussed and the bulk temperature of the gas and the trapped mass in the combustion chamber are evaluated as a function of time from resonant frequency information.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Evaluation of novel Streptococcus pyogenes vaccine candidates incorporating multiple conserved sequences from the C-repeat region of the M-protein

A major challenge for Streptococcus pyogenes vaccine development is the identification of epitopes that confer protection from infection by multiple S. pyogenes M-types. Here we have identified and characterised the distribution of common variant sequences from individual repeat units of the C-repeat region (CRR) of M-proteins representing 77 different M-types. Three polyvalent fusion vaccine candidates (SV1, SV2 and SV3) incorporating the most common variants were subsequently expressed and purified, and demonstrated to be alpha-helical by Circular Dichroism (CD), a secondary conformational characteristic of the CRR in the M-protein. Antibodies raised against each of these constructs recognise M-proteins that vary in their CRR, and bind to the surface of multiple S. pyogenes isolates. Antibodies raised against SV1, containing five variant sequences, also kill heterologous S. pyogenes isolates in in vitro bactericidal assays. Further structural characterisation of this construct demonstrated the conformation of SV1 was stable at different pHs, and thermal unfolding of SV1 a reversible process. Our findings demonstrate that linkage of multiple variant sequences into a single recombinant construct overcomes the need to embed the variant sequences in foreign helix promoting flanking sequences for conformational stability, and demonstrates the viability of the polyvalent candidates as global S. pyogenes vaccine candidates.

Some empirical results for neo-Piagetian reasoning in novice programmers and the relationship to code explanation questions

Recent research on novice programmers has suggested that they pass through neo-Piagetian stages: sensorimotor, preoperational, and concrete operational stages, before eventually reaching programming competence at the formal operational stage. This paper presents empirical results in support of this neo-Piagetian perspective. The major novel contributions of this paper are empirical results for some exam questions aimed at testing novices for the concrete operational abilities to reason with quantities that are conserved, processes that are reversible, and properties that hold under transitive inference. While the questions we used had been proposed earlier by Lister, he did not present any data for how students performed on these questions. Our empirical results demonstrate that many students struggle to answer these problems, despite the apparent simplicity of these problems. We then compare student performance on these questions with their performance on six explain in plain English questions.

Dimensions of the third sector : comparative perspectives on structure and change

Cross-nationally, the introduction of New Public Management coincides with a significant growth phase of the nonprofit or third sector. This growth has disproportionately been an expansion of the economic dimensions (employment, turnover) and basically involved the greater use of third sector organisations as service providers. Such provision uses complex contract regimes, and typically takes place in some form of public-private partnership with either public or private funding agencies. Other parts of the third sector such as membership, volunteering and giving have generally grown less. The paper suggests that the sector is becoming qualitatively different, although the nature and strength of this change depends on the nonprofit regime type in a given country. Generally, however, third sector growth has led to differentiation processes that involve new organisational forms, and changes in activities and overall composition. The paper explores the measurement aspects of the quantitative-qualitative jump in third sector development by trying to "map" changes in core facts or dimensions over time. In closing, the paper suggests to examine recombination and refunctionality processes in the third sector.

Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Factors affecting motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Singapore crash statistics show that motorcycles are involved in about 54% of crashes at intersections. Moreover, about 46% of fatal and 67% of injury motorcycle crashes occur at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and three-legged signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Analysis of the results shows the number of lanes at the intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median at four-legged intersections and an exclusive right-turn lane and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at three-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. Moreover, motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because of the vulnerability of the motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly on the intersection roadways for both four-legged and three-legged intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

A general method to determine sampling windows for nonlinear mixed effects models with an application to population pharmacokinetic studies

Optimal design methods have been proposed to determine the best sampling times when sparse blood sampling is required in clinical pharmacokinetic studies. However, the optimal blood sampling time points may not be feasible in clinical practice. Sampling windows, a time interval for blood sample collection, have been proposed to provide flexibility in blood sampling times while preserving efficient parameter estimation. Because of the complexity of the population pharmacokinetic models, which are generally nonlinear mixed effects models, there is no analytical solution available to determine sampling windows. We propose a method for determination of sampling windows based on MCMC sampling techniques. The proposed method attains a stationary distribution rapidly and provides time-sensitive windows around the optimal design points. The proposed method is applicable to determine sampling windows for any nonlinear mixed effects model although our work focuses on an application to population pharmacokinetic models.

What to do if your child is being bullied

Many of us have experienced being a victim of a bully at some time in our lives. We know how humiliated and hurt we were. If you find out your child is being bullied we want to jump in and sort it out straight away. However, it is better to remain clam and have a conversation with your child, not an interrogation and make a plan. About a quarter of children say they have been bullied at some time and yet many will not tell us for fear of retaliation from the bully or because of what we might do.

The grow-shrink-and-turncoat

This reversible garment, the grow-shrink-and-turncoat, is constructed in modules which allow it to be extended or tightened depending on the wearer. Later, it can be disassembled and then reassembled to form a new garment. The laser-cut holes allow for layers of cloth to be added or removed. The design was developed in part from a brainstorming activity with first and second year QUT students – their ideas included a garment which can be taken apart, a garment to fit many people, and most intriguingly, a garment that can open and ‘grow’ like a flower, swelling up in cold weather to warm the body. Taking these ideas, I developed a garment which can be disassembled, with layers added or subtracted by the wearer according to aesthetics and / or comfort. The shell is constructed from six squares of laser cut cloth, draped together with six smaller laser-cut rectangles, held in place with removable stitching. Additional squares and rectangles of cloth can be added / subtracted with ties knotted through the laser-cut holes. The laser cutting becomes a patterning device as well as integral to the construction of the garment. Conceptually, the garment is grounded in the notion of fabric as a precious resource – the pieces are designed to be disassembled at end-of-life, and then reconfigured into a fresh design.