Ensaios sobre o poder judiciário no Brasil

A tese apresenta três ensaios empíricos sobre os padrões decisórios de magistrados no Brasil, elaborados à partir de bases de dados inéditas e de larga escala, que contém detalhes de dezenas de milhares de processos judiciais na primeira e na segunda instância. As bases de dados são coletadas pelo próprio autor através de programas-robô de coleta em massa de informações, aplicados aos "links" de acompanhamento processual de tribunais estaduais no Brasil (Paraná, Minas Gerais e Santa Catarina). O primeiro artigo avalia - com base em modelo estatístico - a importância de fatores extra-legais sobre os resultados de ações judiciais, na Justiça Estadual do Paraná. Isto é, se os juízes favorecem sistematicamente a parte hipossuficiente (beneficiária de Assistência Judiciária Gratuita). No segundo artigo, estuda-se a relação entre a duração de ações cíveis no primeiro grau e a probabilidade de reforma da sentença, utilizando-se dados da Justiça Estadual de Minas Gerais. O objetivo é avaliar se existe um dilema entre a duração e a qualidade das sentenças. Dito de outra forma, se existe um dilema entre a observância do direito ao devido processo legal e a celeridade processual. O último artigo teste a hipótese - no âmbito de apelações criminais e incidentes recursais no Tribunal de Justiça de Santa Catarina - de que as origens profissionais dos desembargadores influenciam seus padrões decisórios. Isto é, testa-se a hipótese de que desembargadores/relatores oriundos da carreira da advocacia são mais "garantistas" ( e desembargadores oriundos da carreira do Ministério Público são menos "garantistas") relativamente aos seus pares oriundos da carreira da magistratura. Testam-se as hipóteses com base em um modelo estatístico que explica a probabilidade de uma decisão recursal favorável ao réu, em função da origem de carreira do relator do recurso, além de um conjunto de características do processo e do órgão julgador.

Formação de agenda e formulação de uma política pública no Brasil: o caso do Fundo Social do Pré-Sal

Entender o processo que engendra o Fundo Social do Pré-Sal demanda compreender a nova regulação do petróleo, aprovada em 2010. Esta tese empreende análise da trajetória da regulação do petróleo no Brasil, partindo da aprovação da Lei do Petróleo (1997), e avalia como ideias e interesses interagem com instituições vigentes, ação política e condições econômicas, para gerar nova configuração setorial. Combinando visão abrangente do institucionalismo histórico aos métodos robustos do institucionalismo da escolha racional para determinação das preferências dos atores, este trabalho aponta para a determinação histórica das escolhas dos agentes. Em termos empíricos, mostra como as condições econômicas foram determinantes na permeabilidade da política econômica brasileira aos interesses representados pelas instituições multilaterais, esclarece a importância do volume de reservas de petróleo na determinação do novo marco regulatório; e aponta razão para a escalada de valor da Petrobras após 1997.

Partial economic reforrns and financial crises: an emerging markets perspective

The recent emerging market experiences have posed a challenge to the conventional wisdom that unsustainable fiscal deficits are the key to understanding financial crises in these countries. The health of the domestic banking system has emerged as the main driving force behind the perverse dynamics of partial reforms. The current paper shares this view and uses a model of contractual inefliciencies in the banking sector to understand the dynamics of these reforms. We find that the threat of a large exchange rate devaluation depends on the stock of international reserves relative to the stock of domestic credit that must be extended by the Central Bank in response to a large capital outflow. Moreover, if a country has a weak banking sector but high net reserve ratios, the capital flow reversal might only increase the vulnerability to a currency crisis without necessarily causing it. The results are in accordance with much of the empiricalliterature on the determinants of financiaI crises in emerging markets. Some aspectsof the recent policy debate on the introduction of capital controls are also analysed.

Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

A pricing model for sovereign bonde

Similar to the modeling used to evaluate ccnporate boncls, where it is a put optioo. 011 corporate assets, we modeled sovereign bonds. Instead of company's assets as underlining assets, we used foreign excbange reserves. The results show a fundamental pricing model for sovereign bond and an optimum relation between the debt size, term, mix between floating and fixed interest payments, and size of reserves. The model is tested with a Brazilian BradyBond.

Reservas internacionais e dívida soberana: uma análise de simulação sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida

Este trabalho analisa, sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida, os efeitos de se manter um elevado nível de reservas internacionais juntamente com um elevado estoque de dívida pública. Busca-se o nível ótimo de reservas para o Brasil através de uma ferramenta de gestão de risco, por simulações de Monte Carlo. Considerando as variáveis estocásticas que afetam a equação de acumulação da dívida, e entendendo a relação entre elas, pode-se estudar as propriedades estocásticas da dinâmica da dívida. Da mesma forma, podemos analisar o impacto fiscal de um determinado nível de reservas ao longo do tempo e verificar quais caminhos se mostram sustentáveis. Sob a ótica da sustentabilidade da dívida, a escolha que gera a melhor relação dívida líquida / PIB para o Brasil é aquela que utiliza o máximo das reservas internacionais para reduzir o endividamento local. No entanto, como há aspectos não capturados nesta análise, tais como os benefícios das reservas em prevenir crises e em funcionar como garantia para investimentos externos, sugere-se que as reservas não excedam os níveis reconhecidos pela literatura internacional que atendam a estes fins. A indicação final deste estudo é que as reservas internacionais funcionam como um instrumento de proteção ao país quando o endividamento e o custo dele não são tão expressivos, como são atualmente no Brasil.

Share bidding auctions, sliding scale royalty rates and the new brazilian regulatory framework for the pre-salt areas

O governo brasileiro recentemente aprovou uma legislação instituindo um novo marco regulatório para as reservas petrolíferas do pré-sal. Segundo as novas regras, estas áreas deverão ser licitadas mediante um leilão de partilha de lucro. Motivado por esta mudança, apresentamos um modelo de leilão de partilha sob afiliação, demonstrando a existência de um equilíbrio monótono em estratégias puras e caracterizando a solução. Alem disso, provamos que este mecanismo gera receita esperada maior ou igual a um leilão de primeiro preço usual. Em seguida, introduzimos no modelo uma função representando taxas de royalties que dependem do valor do objeto. Este instrumento permite uma elevação na receita esperada de ambos os modelos, fazendo com que a diferença entre eles encolha. Finalmente, analisando o novo marco regulatório sob o ponto de vista dos resultados obtidos, concluímos que o antigo modelo de concessão utilizado pelo governo brasileiro é mais adequado e lucrativo.

O impacto da melhoria de um processo operacional na lucratividade e competitividade: um estudo de caso na subsidiária brasileira de uma empresa do ramo de petróleo

Após uma sequência histórica de ciclos econômicos no Brasil, desde o final da década de 90, o país presencia a abertura do setor do Petróleo ligado à descoberta do pré-sal e o volume imensurável das reservas naturais. Esse marco pôde determinar o início de um dos mais relevantes e diversificados ciclos de industrialização na história econômica do Brasil. Mesmo nesse ramo de negócio, um mercado de gigantes, de multinacionais, de grandes players com estratégias inovadoras e múltiplos know-how's insubstituíveis, é fato conhecido, principalmente para os profissionais dessa seara, que muitas empresas de petróleo possuem inúmeros fatores críticos com urgente necessidade de melhoria. O objetivo principal desta dissertação é fazer inicialmente uma breve análise estratégica e mercadológica da subsidiária brasileira de um grupo multinacional do ramo de Petróleo e Gás especializado em tecnologia de fluidos de perfuração de poços de petróleo, com presença em mais de vinte países. Após imersão no contexto, realizar a análise detalhada de um processo em especial, a primeira vista sem importância, que ao ser estudado, monitorado e mapeado, pôde ser ajustado, redesenhado e implementado, apresentando ganhos substanciais para a corporação relacionados à competitividade e lucratividade.

Impactos econômicos da nova realidade da exploração do pré-sal. Existe uma ameaça ao etanol?

A partir de meados dos anos 2000, a produção brasileira de etanol voltou a prosperar. Enquanto isso, em 2007 foi anunciada a descoberta de grandes reservas de petróleo na camada pré-sal no litoral brasileiro. Com isso, a perspectiva promissora para a indústria brasileira de etanol começou a dar lugar ao desenvolvimento de petróleo do pré-sal com um ambicioso programa de investimentos. Além disso, entre 2011 e 2014 o Governo adotou uma nova política de preços domésticos da gasolina e diesel, com o objetivo de reduzir as pressões inflacionárias, mas reduzindo gradualmente a competitividade do etanol, além de comprometer a situação financeira da Petrobras, dificultando investimentos no pré-sal. Considerando tais desafios e a importância dos setores de petróleo e etanol para a economia brasileira, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar os impactos econômicos de longo prazo da exploração do pré-sal, com especial atenção para as consequências sobre o setor de etanol. É realizada uma avaliação dos impactos da política de controle do preço da gasolina do período 2011-2014 sobre o setor de etanol. Um modelo adaptado de equilíbrio geral dinâmico recursivo é empregado no qual o setor do petróleo do pré-sal é adicionado como uma tecnologia backstop. Os resultados sugerem que o estímulo precoce da produção do pré-sal para alcançar a produção de petróleo esperada pelo Governo traz mais custos do que benefícios para a economia brasileira. Constatou-se que sem interferência do governo, a produção de petróleo do pré-sal torna-se competitiva somente após 2025-2035. Com relação ao impacto sobre a indústria do etanol, verificou-se que o desenvolvimento do pré-sal não enfraquece a produção brasileira de etanol. No entanto, a política de controle de preço da gasolina teve um impacto negativo sobre o setor de etanol.

Combater as secas e defender as florestas a natureza nos desafios da ciência e da técnica para modernizar o Brasil (1889 a 1934)

In the first decades of 20th century the just instituted Brazilian Republic faced the challenge to modernize the country. Considering that the progress was associated with the exhaustion of the forest reserves and with climatic changes, two big issues were seen as fundamental: To Fight the Droughts and To Defend the Forests; headed by professionals who were dedicated to these ideals. This research starts from the premise that these were the main challenges enforced by nature to the Brazilian development; the general objective was delimited in the search to understand the meaning and the conception of the natural world by this group of professionals who faced the shock between modernizing the country and conserving its natural resources. Aiming to contribute with the construction of the Brazilian environmental history and to bring historical elements to the debate about the environment in the country, the author concentrates his attention to the analyses, the discussions and the actions that preceded the regulation on the use of natural resources and the implementation of the environmental legislation in Brazil, occurred in 1934. The investigation uses as methodological basis the theoretical directions of environmental history, using sources of data still little explored and valued. In such way, it is taken as starting point some published papers about this subject during the period between 1889 and 1934 in two technical magazines the Revista Brazil Ferro-Carril and the Revista do Club de Engenharia. National engineering played a basic role in this process while arguing, projecting and constructing the development. The formulated proposals, after being divulged, had fomented the interchange with other professionals and had favored the advance of ambient questions in Brazil, in the sense to preserve natural resources, to construct more harmonic relations between the society and the nature and to equate the development with the environment preservation

Regulação da mobilização de lipídios e proteinas por hormônios, fontes de carbono e nitrogênio durante o crescimento pos-germinativo em girassol

The mobilization of food reserves in storage tissues and allocation of their hydrolysis products in the growing axis are critical processes for the establishment of seedlings after germination. Therefore, it is crucial for mobilization of reserves to be synchronized with the growing axis, so that photosynthetic activity can be started before depletion of reserves. For this, integrative approaches involving different reserves, different hydrolysis products and interaction between storage and growing axis tissues, either through hormones or metabolites with signaling role, can contribute greatly to the elucidation of the regulation mechanisms for reserve mobilization. In this study, was hypothesized that hormones and metabolites have different actions on reserve mobilization, and there must be a crossed effect of sugars on the mobilization of proteins and amino acids on lipids and starch mobilization in sunflower seedlings. This study was conducted with seeds of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) hybrid Helio 253 using in vitro culture system. Seeds were germinated on Germitest® paper and grown on agar-water 4 g/L without addition of nutrients during 9 days after imbibition (DAI) for growth curve. To verify the effect of metabolites and hormones, seedlings were transferred in the 2nd DAI to agar-water 4 g/L supplemented with increasing concentrations of sucrose or L-glutamine, abscisic acid, gibberellic acid or indolebutyric acid. The results of this study confirm that the mobilization of lipids and storage proteins occurs in a coordinated manner during post-germination growth in sunflower, corroborating the hypothesis that the application of external carbon (sucrose) and nitrogen (L-glutamine) sources can delay the mobilization of these reserves in a crossed way. Moreover, considering the changes in the patterns of reserve mobilization and partition of their products in seedlings treated with different growth regulators, it is evident that the effects of metabolites and hormones must involve, at least in part, distinct mechanisms of action

Influência da suplementação de retinol palmitato sobre os níveis de vitamina A no leite de puérperas saudáveis

The tendency towards reduction of serum retinol levels, an existing placental barrier and the increase of retinol demand, are factors that place puerperal and lactating women at risk for Vitamin A deficiency. This micronutrient is an essential component of vital processes such as differentiation, cellular proliferation, and apoptosis. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of palmitate retinol supplementation (100.000UI) upon the milk retinollevels in puerperal women at the Januário Cicco University Maternity Hospital. This intervention has been adopted by the Ministry of Health since 2002. The longitudinal experiment was conducted with 106 puerperal women (68 comprised the supplemented group and 38 the control group). The High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) method was used to dose the retinol of the milk and serum samples, and the creamtocrit method to determine the milk fat levels. The retinol means for the colostrums were 99.0 ± 64.4 ug/dL and 160.1 ± 94,4 ug/dl 6 hours afier supplementation; 68.9 ± 33.5 ug/dL for the transitional milk, and 30.6 ± 15.2 ug/dL for the mature milk of the supplemented group. Ali the difterences between means were statistically significant. The difterence between retinol means in the control group were also significant, with these being greater in the colostrum, 88.6 ± 62.1 ug/dL with 61.9 ± 30.1 ug/dl in the transition milk and 32.9 ±32.9 ± 17.6 ug/dL in the mature milk. No significant difference was observed in the retinol means of the three types ot milk in the supplemented group when compared to their respective means in the control group. The prevalence in serum (35.1 % and 81.1 % for the cutting point 20 ug/dL, respectively) and in milk (51.4%) revealed vitamin A deficiency as a public health problem. COlostrum, transition, and mature milk tats varied similarly in the supplemented group (1,92 ± 0,96; 3,25 ± 1,27 and 3,31 ± 1,36 grams) and in the control group (1,87 ± 1,14; 3,25 ± 1,31 and 3,36 ± 1,67 grams), with an observed difference between the colostrum/transition milk and the colostrum/mature milk fats. No difference was observed between the groups. The study showed that the 200.000UI supplementation was not sufficient to increase the milk retinol to the desired levels nor to meet the demands of the mothers with deprived hepatic reserves. It is suggested that another similar dose be offered within 30 days or less, and within 2 months post-partum, while continual/y monitoring for possible pregnancy

Estudo e desenvolvimento de um capacitor eletrolítico de nióbio

It seeks to find an alternative to the current tantalum electrolytic capacitors in the market due to its high cost. Niobium is a potential substitute, since both belong to the same group of the periodic table and because of this have many similar physical and chemical properties. Niobium has several technologically important applications, and Brazil has the largest reserves, around 96%. There are including niobium in reserves of tantalite and columbite in Rio Grande do Norte. These electrolytic capacitors have high capacitance specifies, ie they can store high energy in small volumes compared to other types of capacitors. This is the main attraction of this type of capacitor because is growing demand in the production of capacitors with capacitance specifies increasingly high, this because of the miniaturization of various devices such as GPS devices, televisions, computers, phones and many others. The production route of the capacitor was made by powder metallurgy. The initial niobium powder supplied by EEL-USP was first characterized by XRD, SEM, XRF and laser particle size, to then be sieved into three particle size, 200, 400 e 635mesh. The powders were then compacted and sintered at 1350, 1450 and 1550°C using two sintering time 30 and 60min. Sintering is one of the most important parts of the process as it affects properties as porosity and surface cleaning of the samples, which greatly affected the quality of the capacitor. The sintered samples then underwent a process of anodic oxidation, which created a thin film of niobium pentóxido over the whole porous surface of the sample, this film is the dielectric capacitor. The oxidation process variables influence the performance of the film and therefore the capacitor. The samples were characterized by electrical measurements of capacitance, loss factor, ESR, relative density, porosity and surface area. After the characterizations was made an annealing in air ate 260ºC for 60min. After this treatment were made again the electrical measurements. The particle size of powders and sintering affected the porosity and in turn the specific area of the samples. The larger de area of the capacitor, greater is the capacitance. The powder showed the highest capacitance was with the smallest particle size. Higher temperatures and times of sintering caused samples with smaller surface area, but on the other hand the cleaning surface impurities was higher for this cases. So a balance must be made between the gain that is achieved with the cleaning of impurities and the loss with the decreased in specific area. The best results were obtained for the temperature of 1450ºC/60min. The influence of annealing on the loss factor and ESR did not follow a well-defined pattern, because their values increased in some cases and decreased in others. The most interesting results due to heat treatment were with respect to capacitance, which showed an increase for all samples after treatment

Síntese e caracterização de peneiras moleculares mesoporosas do tipo MCM-41 e AlMCM-41 a partir de fontes alternativas de sílica e de alumínio

The mesoporous molecular sieves of MCM-41 and AlMCM-41 type are considered as promising support for metal in the refining processes of petroleum-based materials as catalysts and adsorbents for environmental protection. In this work the molecular sieves MCM-41 and AlMCM-41 were synthesized by replacing the source of silica conventionally used, for quartz, an alternative and abundant, and the use of waste from the production of diatomaceous earth, an aluminum-silicate, as a source aluminum, due to abundant reserves of diatomaceous earth in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the city of Ceará-Mirim, with the objective of producing high-value materials that have similar characteristics to traditional commercial catalysts in the market. These materials were synthesized by the method of hydrothermal synthesis at 100 º C for 7 days and subjected to calcination at 500 º C for 2 hours under flow of nitrogen and air. The molecular sieves were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), differential thermal analysis (DTA) and thermogravimetric analysis (TG), adsorption of N2 (BET and BJH methods), spectroscopy in the infra red (FTIR), microscopy scanning electron (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The analysis indicated that the synthesized materials showed characteristic hexagonal structure of mesopores materials with high specific surface area and sort and narrow distribution of size of pores