The development of a regional energy assessment model

Shropshire Energy Team initiated this study to examine consumption and associated emissions in the predominantly rural county of Shropshire. Current use of energy is not sustainable in the long term and there are various approaches to dealing with the environmental problems it creates. Energy planning by a local authority for a sustainable future requires detailed energy consumption and environmental information. This information would enable target setting and the implementation of policies designed to encourage energy efficiency improvements and exploitation of renewable energy resources. This could aid regeneration strategies by providing new employment opportunities. Associated reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions would help to meet national and international environmental targets. In the absence of this detailed information, the objective was to develop a methodology to assess energy consumption and emissions on a regional basis from 1990 onwards for all local planning authorities. This would enable a more accurate assessment of the relevant issues, such that plans are more appropriate and longer lasting. A first comprehensive set of data has been gathered from a wide range of sources and a strong correlation was found between population and energy consumption for a variety of regions across the UK. In this case the methodology was applied to the county of Shropshire to give, for the first time, estimates of primary fuel consumption, electricity consumption and associated emissions in Shropshire for 1990 to 2025. The estimates provide a suitable baseline for assessing the potential contribution renewable energy could play in meeting electricity demand in the country and in reducing emissions. The assessment indicated that in 1990 total primary fuel consumption was 63,518,018 GJ/y increasing to 119,956,465 GJ/y by 2025. This is associated with emissions of 1,129,626 t/y of carbon in 1990 rising to 1,303,282 t/y by 2025. In 1990, 22,565,713 GJ/y of the primary fuel consumption was used for generating electricity rising to 23,478,050 GJ/y in 2025. If targets to reduce primary fuel consumption are reached, then emissions of carbon would fall to 1,042,626 by 2025, if renewable energy targets were also reached then emissions of carbon would fall to 988,638 t/y by 2025.

A model to assess the cost effectiveness of statins in achieving the UK National Service Framework target cholesterol levels

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a public health priority in the UK. The National Service Framework (NSF) has set standards for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of CHD, which include the use of cholesterol-lowering agents aimed at achieving targets of blood total cholesterol (TC) < 5.0 mmol/L and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) < 3.0 mmol/L. In order to achieve these targets cost effectively, prescribers need to make an informed choice from the range of statins available. Aim: To estimate the average and relative cost effectiveness of atorvastatin, fluvastatin, pravastatin and simvastatin in achieving the NSF LDL-C and TC targets. Design: Model-based economic evaluation. Methods: An economic model was constructed to estimate the number of patients achieving the NSF targets for LDL-C and TC at each dose of statin, and to calculate the average drug cost and incremental drug cost per patient achieving the target levels. The population baseline LDL-C and TC, and drug efficacy and drug costs were taken from previously published data. Estimates of the distribution of patients receiving each dose of statin were derived from the UK national DIN-LINK database. Results: The estimated annual drug cost per 1000 patients treated with atorvastatin was £289 000, with simvastatin £315 000, with pravastatin £333 000 and with fluvastatin £167 000. The percentages of patients achieving target are 74.4%, 46.4%, 28.4% and 13.2% for atorvastatin, simvastatin, pravastatin and fluvastatin, respectively. Incremental drug cost per extra patient treated to LDL-C and TC targets compared with fluvastafin were £198 and £226 for atorvastatin, £443 and £567 for simvastatin and £1089 and £2298 for pravastatin, using 2002 drug costs. Conclusions: As a result of its superior efficacy, atorvastatin generates a favourable cost-effectiveness profile as measured by drug cost per patient treated to LDL-C and TC targets. For a given drug budget, more patients would achieve NSF LDL-C and TC targets with atorvastatin than with any of the other statins examined.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

Reformed county government structure and service delivery performance: An integrated study of Florida counties

The most fundamental and challenging function of government is the effective and efficient delivery of services to local taxpayers and businesses. Counties, once known as the “dark continent” of American government, have recently become a major player in the provision of services. Population growth and suburbanization have increased service demands while the counties' role as service provider to incorporated residents has also expanded due to additional federal and state mandates. County governments are under unprecedented pressure and scrutiny to meet citizens' and elected officials' demands for high quality, and equitable delivery of services at the lowest possible cost while contending with anti-tax sentiments, greatly decreased state and federal support, and exceptionally costly and complex health and public safety problems. ^ This study tested the reform government theory proposition that reformed structures of county government positively correlate with efficient service delivery. A county government reformed index was developed for this dissertation comprised of form of government, home-rule status, method of election, number of government jurisdictions, and number of elected officials. The county government reform index and a measure of relative structural fragmentation were used to assess their impact on two measures of service output: mean county road pavement condition and county road maintenance expenditures. The study's multi-level design triangulated results from different data sources and methods of analysis. Data were collected from semi-structured interviews of county officials, secondary archival sources, and a survey of 544 elected and appointed officials from Florida's 67 counties. The results of the three sources of data converged in finding that reformed Florida counties are more likely than unreformed counties to provide better road service and to spend less on road expenditures. The same results were found for unfragmented Florida counties. Because both the county government reform index and the fragmentation variables were specified acknowledging the reform theory as well as elements from the public-choice model, the results help explain contradicting findings in the urban service research. ^ Therefore, as suggested by the corroborated findings of this dissertation, reformed as well as unfragmented counties are better providers of road maintenance service and do so in a less costly manner. These findings hold although the variables were specified to capture theoretical arguments from the consolidated as well as the public-choice theories suggesting a way to advance the debate from the consolidated-fragmented dichotomy of urban governance. ^

Evaluating Effects of Everglades Restoration on American Crocodile Populations in South Florida Using a Spatially-Explicit, Stage-Based Population Model

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Examining current provision, practice and experience of initial teacher training providers in Ireland preparing pre service teachers for the inclusion of students with special education needs in physical education classes.

Research from an international perspective in relation to the preparation of pre service teachers in physical education and special educational needs indicates that initial teacher training providers are inconsistent in the amount of time spent addressing the issue and the nature of curricular content (Vickerman, 2007). In Ireland, research of Meegan and MacPhail (2005) and Crawford (2011) indicates that physical education teachers do not feel adequately prepared to accommodate students with Special Educational Needs (SEN) in physical education classes. This study examined initial teacher training provision in Ireland in the training of pre service physical education teachers in SEN. The methodology used was qualitative and included questionnaires and interviews (n=4). Findings indicated that time allocation (semester long modules), working with children with disabilities in mainstream settings (school or leisure centre based), lack of collaboration with other PETE providers (n=4) and a need for continued professional development were themes in need of address. Using a combined approach where the recently designed European Inclusive Physical Education Training (Kudlácěk, Jesina, & Flanagan, 2010) model is infused through the undergraduate degree programme is proposed. Further, the accommodation of hands on experience for undergraduates in mainstream settings and the establishment of inter institutional communities of practice, with a national disability research initiative, is essential to ensure quality adapted physical activity training can be accommodated throughout Ireland.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.

El rol de las redes de apoyo transnacional en la evolución del régimen de trata de personas en la región del mekong, 2004-2015

Con el fin de la unipolaridad no sólo se fortalecieron mecanismos de gobernanza global como los Regímenes Internacionales, sino también se fortalecieron actores no estatales. A pesar de la importancia que tomaron estos dos elementos aún no existe una teoría que explique exhaustivamente la relación que existe entre ellos. Es por lo anterior que, la investigación busca responder de qué manera el rol de las Redes de Apoyo Transnacional ha incidido en la evolución del régimen de tráfico de personas en la Región del Mekong. Asimismo tiene como objetivo comprender las relación entre el Régimen y las Redes de Apoyo Transnacional a través de la formulación de un caso de estudio basado en metodologías cualitativas, específicamente, en el análisis teórico-constructivista y el análisis de contenido de documentos producidos por actores estatales y no estatales.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 2: Model sensitivity to the biomass burning

We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.

Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Population balance model of in vivo neutrophil formation following bone marrow rescue therapy

In this paper, we develop a simple four parameter population balance model of in vivo neutrophil formation following bone marrow rescue therapy. The model is used to predict the number and type of neutrophil progenitors required to abrogate the period of severe neutropenia that normally follows a bone marrow transplant. The estimated total number of 5 billion neutrophil progenitors is consistent with the value extrapolated from a human trial. The model provides a basis for designing ex vivo expansion protocols.