Making the case for improved structural design : tornado outbreaks of 2011

A total of 1,625 tornadoes occurred in the United States in 2011, resulting in economic losses that exceeded $25 billion. Two tornado outbreaks stand out because they caused more than half of those losses. The tornadoes that cut through Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on April 27 and Joplin, Missouri, on May 22 were responsible for a combined 223 fatalities and more than 13,000 damaged buildings in the two cities. Although the economic losses associated with tornado damage are well documented, the writers argue that the overall impact should encompass longer term, broader considerations such as the social disruption and psychological effects that impact communities. This paper examines observations by tornado damage assessment teams led by the first author in these two medium-sized cities and suggests that the evolution of building codes and past approaches to construction have led to conditions that made this extent of damage possible. The authors outline a multidisciplinary path forward that incorporates engineering research and social and economic studies into a new design paradigm leading to building code changes and social practices that will improve resistance and mitigate future losses at a community level from tornadoes.

Challenges for integrated design and delivery solutions

A new approach of integrated design and delivery solutions (IDDS) aims to radically improve the performance of the construction industries. IDDS builds upon recent trends in the construction industries that have seen the widespread adoption of technologies such as building information modelling (BIM) and innovative processes such as integrated project delivery. However, these innovations are seen to develop in isolation, with little consideration of the overarching interactions between people, process and technology. The IDDS approach is holistic in that it recognizes that it is only through a combination of initiatives such as skill development, process re-engineering, responsive information technology, enhanced interoperability and integrating knowledge management, among others, that radical change can be achieved. To implement IDDS requires step changes in many project aspects, and this gap between current performance and that required for IDDS is highlighted. The research required to bridge the gaps is identified in four major aspects of collaborative processes, workforce skills, integrated information and knowledge management.

Invasive and metastatic properties of MCF-7 cells and ras(H)-transfected MCF-7 cell lines

In vitro invasion and in vivo metastasis assays were performed with a panel of MCF-7 cells transfected with isogenic constructs of mutated ras(H) genes. Both increased levels of ras(H) expression and ras(H) oncogene activation increased activity of derivative cell lines in in vitro invasion assays. In vivo formation of spontaneous metastases was assessed after intradermal inoculation of MCF-7 cells in the vicinity of the mammary fat pads of ovariectomized nude mice. No metastases were seen in the absence of estradiol treatment of the mice. With estradiol supplementation of the mice both the ras(H)-transfected and control transfected cell lines gave a higher incidence of metastases than parental MCF-7 cells. Prolonged treatment of mice with exogenous estradiol (60 days vs. 21 days) resulted in more frequent metastases to liver and lung at the end of the 90-day observation period. In contrast to activated ras(H)-gene enhancement of metastatic capacity of rodent fibroblast and epithelial cell lines, there was no correlation of ras(H) expression with in vivo metastatic capacity of a human mammary carcinoma cell line.

A ramp metering strategy for rapid congestion recovery

Recurrent congestion caused by high commuter traffic is an irritation to motorway users. Ramp metering (RM) is the most effective motorway control means (M Papageorgiou & Kotsialos, 2002) for significantly reducing motorway congestion. However, given field constraints (e.g. limited ramp space and maximum ramp waiting time), RM cannot eliminate recurrent congestion during the increased long peak hours. This paper, therefore, focuses on rapid congestion recovery to further improve RM systems: that is, to quickly clear congestion in recovery periods. The feasibility of using RM for recovery is analyzed, and a zone recovery strategy (ZRS) for RM is proposed. Note that this study assumes no incident and demand management involved, i.e. no re-routing behavior and strategy considered. This strategy is modeled, calibrated and tested in the northbound model of the Pacific Motorway, Brisbane, Australia in a micro-simulation environment for recurrent congestion scenario, and evaluation results have justified its effectiveness.

A C-ITS based lane-changing advisory for weaving sections

Weaving sections, a common design of motorways, require extensive lane-change manoeuvres. Numerous studies have found that drivers tend to make their lane changes as soon as they enter the weaving section, as the traffic volume increases. Congestion builds up as a result of this high lane-changing concentration. Importantly, such congestion also limits the use of existing infrastructure, the weaving section downstream. This behaviour thus affects both safety and operational aspects. The potential tool for managing motorways effectively and efficiently is cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS). This research investigates a lane-change distribution advisory application based on C-ITS for weaving vehicles in weaving sections. The objective of this research is to alleviate the lane-changing concentration problem by coordinating weaving vehicles to ensure that such lane-changing activities are evenly distributed over the existing weaving length. This is achieved by sending individual messages to drivers based on their location to advise them when to start their lane change. The research applied a microscopic simulation in AIMSUN to evaluate the proposed strategy’s effectiveness in a one-sided ramp weave. The proposed strategy was evaluated using different weaving advisory proportions, traffic demands and penetration rates. The evaluation revealed that the proposed lane-changing advisory has the potential to significantly improve delay.

Fine-mapping the HOXB region detects common variants tagging a rare coding allele : evidence for synthetic association in prostate cancer

The HOXB13 gene has been implicated in prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility. We performed a high resolution fine-mapping analysis to comprehensively evaluate the association between common genetic variation across the HOXB genetic locus at 17q21 and PrCa risk. This involved genotyping 700 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array (iCOGS) followed by imputation of 3195 SNPs in 20,440 PrCa cases and 21,469 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. We identified a cluster of highly correlated common variants situated within or closely upstream of HOXB13 that were significantly associated with PrCa risk, described by rs117576373 (OR 1.30, P = 2.62×10(-14)). Additional genotyping, conditional regression and haplotype analyses indicated that the newly identified common variants tag a rare, partially correlated coding variant in the HOXB13 gene (G84E, rs138213197), which has been identified recently as a moderate penetrance PrCa susceptibility allele. The potential for GWAS associations detected through common SNPs to be driven by rare causal variants with higher relative risks has long been proposed; however, to our knowledge this is the first experimental evidence for this phenomenon of synthetic association contributing to cancer susceptibility.

Power and paradigms : the Dutch response to pressures for shareholder value

In recent years, research aimed at identifying and relating the antecedents and consequences of diffusing organizational practices/ideas has turned its attention to debating the international adoption and implementation of the Anglo-American model of corporate governance, i.e., a shareholder-value-orientation (SVO). While financial economists characterize the adoption of an SVO as necessary and performance-enhancing, behavioral scientists have disputed such claims, invoking institutional contingencies in the appropriateness of an SVO. Our study seeks to provide some resolution to the debate by developing an overarching socio-political perspective that links the antecedents and consequences of the adoption of the contested practice of SVO. We test our framework using extensive longitudinal data from 1992-2006 from the largest listed corporations in the Netherlands, and we find a negative relationship between SVO adoption and subsequent firm performance, although this effect is attenuated when accompanied by greater SVO-alignment among major owners and a firm’s visible commitment to an SVO. This study extends prior research on the diffusion of contested organizational practices that has taken a socio-political perspective by offering an original contingency perspective that addresses how and why the misaligned preferences of corporate owners will affect (i) a company’s inclination to espouse an SVO, and (ii) the performance consequences of such misalignment.This study suggests when board members are considering the adoption of new ideas/practices (e.g., SVO), they should consider the contextual fitness of the idea/practice with the firm’s owners and their interests.

Measuring Competence in Supervisees and Supervisors : Satisfaction and Related Reactions in Supervision

Supervision is a highly valued component of practitioner training. This chapter discusses the following: factors influencing perceived satisfaction and alliance; and how satisfaction, alliance, and supervision relationships are currently measured; and reviews issues with the concept and its assessment. Given the importance of the supervisory relationship and of the supervisory alliance for the effectiveness of supervision and for the welfare of supervisees, the routine, repeated measurement of both these concepts, together with supervisee satisfaction, also assumes considerable utility. The chapter describes a selection of some commonly used measures: Supervisee Satisfaction Questionnaire (SSQ), Supervisory Relationship Questionnaire (SRQ), Supervisory Relationship Measure (SRM), Supervision Attitude Scale (SAS), Supervisory Working Alliance Inventory (SWAI), Supervisory Styles Inventory (SSI), Role Conflict and Ambiguity Inventory (RCAIC), and Evaluation Process within Supervision Inventory (EPSI).

John Andrews : Architecture a Performing Art

The distinguished Australian architect surveys his career and examines how his architectural theories are expressed in his designs.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Motorway crash duration and its determinants: Do durations vary across motorways?

Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard-based models to develop in-depth insights into how the crash-specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, have been compared to random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared to the durations on motorway. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that, looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.