A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

Implications of the National Rental Affordability Scheme on the valuation of residential property

The provision of shelter is a basic need and in Australia there has been a history of home ownership. However recent economic growth and rising construction costs, particularly over the past decade, has placed home ownership out of reach for some. In response to increased affordability pressures, the Australian Federal Government established the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) in 2008. The aim of establishing the NRAS initiative is to stimulate the supply of new affordable rental dwellings, targeting 50,000 new properties by June 2012, through the provision of a National Rental Incentive for each “approved” dwelling. To be approved the dwelling must be newly constructed and subsequently rented to eligible low and moderate income households at rentals no greater than 80 percent of market rates. There is a further requirement that the accommodation be provided as part of the scheme for no less than 10 years. The requirement to provide new residential accommodation at below market rentals for no less than 10 years has an impact on value and as such the valuation methodologies employed. To give guidance to valuers this paper investigates the scheme, the impact on value and expectations for the future.

Marketeers beware

The practices of marketeers in the Queensland property market have been the subject of intense media interest and have caused widespread consumer concern. In response to these concerns the Queensland government has amended the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 (Qld) (“the Act”). Significant changes to the Act were introduced by the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Amendment Act 2001 (Qld) (“the amending Act”). Implicit in the introduction of the amending Act was recognition that marketeers had altered their operating tactics to avoid the requirements of the Act. The amendments enhance regulation and are intended to capture the conduct of all persons involved in unconscionable practices that have lead to dysfunction in certain sectors of the Queensland property market. The amending Act is focussed on a broad regulatory response rather than further regulation of specific occupations in the property sale process as it was recognised that the approach of industry regulation had proven to be inadequate to curtail marketeering practices and to protect the interests of consumers. As well as providing for increased disclosure obligations on real estate agents, property developers and lawyers together with an extension of the 5 business day cooling-off period to all contracts (other than auction contracts) for the sale of residential property in Queensland; in an endeavour to further protect consumer interests the amending Act provides for increased jurisdiction and powers to the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Tribunal (“the Tribunal”) enabling the Tribunal to deal with claims against marketeers. These provisions commenced on the date of assent (21 September 2001). The aim of this article is to examine the circumstances in which marketeers will contravene the legislation and the ramifications.

Assessing the awareness and importance of housing sustainability in Queensland

Sustainability has been a major factor and determinant of commercial property design, construction, retro-fitting and landlord and tenant requirements over the last decade, supported by the introduction of rating tools such as NABERS and GreenStar and the recently mandated Building Energy Efficiency Certificate (BEEC). However, the movement to sustainable and energy efficient housing has not been established for the same period, and although mandatory building regulations have been in place for new residential housing construction since 2004, the requirement to improve the sustainability and energy efficiency of housing constructed prior to 2004 has not been mandatory. Residential dwelling energy efficiency and rating schemes introduced in Australia over the past decade have included rating schemes such as BASIX, NatHERS, First rate, ACTHERS, and Building Code of Australia and these have applied to new dwelling construction. At both National and State level the use of energy efficiency schemes for existing residential dwellings has been voluntary and despite significant cash incentives have not always been successful or achieved widespread take-up. In 2010, the Queensland Government regulated that all homes offered for sale, whether a new or existing dwellings require the seller to provide a ―sustainability declaration‖ that provides details of the sustainability measures associated with the dwelling being sold. The purpose of this declaration being to inform buyers and increase community awareness of home sustainability features. This paper uses an extensive review of real estate marketing material, together with a comprehensive survey of real estate agents to analyse the current market compliance, awareness and acceptance of existing green housing regulations and the importance that residential property owners and purchasers place on energy efficient and sustainable housing. The findings indicate that there is still little community awareness or concern of sustainable housing features when making home purchase decisions.

Towards testing the eclectic paradigm on multinational contracting: an approach to reviewing and analysing secondary data

In response to the need to leverage private finance and the lack of competition in some parts of the Australian public sector major infrastructure market, especially in very large economic infrastructure procured using Pubic Private Partnerships, the Australian Federal government has demonstrated its desire to attract new sources of in-bound foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Australian construction market. This paper aims to report on progress towards an investigation into the determinants of multinational contractors’ willingness to bid for Australian public sector major infrastructure projects and which is designed to give an improved understanding of matters surrounding FDI into the Australian construction sector. This research deploys Dunning’s eclectic theory for the first time in terms of in-bound FDI by multinational contractors and as head contractors bidding for Australian major infrastructure public sector projects. Elsewhere, the authors have developed Dunning’s principal hypothesis associated with his eclectic framework in order to suit the context of this research and to address a weakness arising in Dunning’s principal hypothesis that is based on a nominal approach to the factors in the eclectic framework and which fail to speak to the relative explanatory power of these factors. In this paper, an approach to reviewing and analysing secondary data, as part of the first stage investigation in this research, is developed and some illustrations given, vis-à-vis the selected sector (roads, bridges and tunnels) in Australia (as the host location) and using one of the selected home countries (Spain). In conclusion, some tentative thoughts are offered in anticipation of the completion of the first stage investigation - in terms of the extent to which this first stage based on secondary data only might suggest the relative importance of the factors in the eclectic framework. It is noted that more robust conclusions are expected following the future planned stages of the research and these stages including primary data are briefly outlined. Finally, and beyond theoretical contributions expected from the overall approach taken to developing and testing Dunning’s framework, other expected contributions concerning research method and practical implications are mentioned.

An assessment of development funding for new housing post GFC in Queensland, Australia

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify changes in bank lending criteria due to the GFC and to explore the associated impacts on new housing supply in Queensland, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: This research involves a survey of each of Australia’s big four banks, as well as two prominent arrangers of development finance. Data on key lending criteria was collected: Pre GFC, during the GFC, and GFC recovery stage. Findings: The GFC has resulted in a retraction of funds available for residential development. The few institutions lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive loan covenants including: low loan to value ratios, high cash equity requirements, regional “no go” zones, and demonstrated borrower track record. The ability of developers to proceed with new housing developments is being constrained by their inability to obtain sufficient finance. Research limitations/implications: This research uses survey data, together with an understanding of the project finance process to extrapolate impacts on the residential development industry across Queensland. No regional or sub-market analysis is included. Future research will include subsequent surveys to track any loosening of credit policies over time and sub-market sector analysis. Practical implications: The inability to obtain project finance is identified as a key constraint to new housing supply. This research will inform policy makers and provide important quantitative evidence of the importance of availability of development finance in the housing supply chain. Social implications: Queensland is facing a supply shortfall, which if not corrected, may lead to upward pressure on house prices and falling housing affordability. Originality/value: There is very little academic research on development funding. This research is unique in linking bank lending criteria to new housing supply and demonstrating the impact on the development industry.

Property investment, construction and economic growth : the case of Malaysia

It is generally accepted that there is a close relationship between property investment and construction activity. The construction sector plays a crucial role in economic development, especially for a developing nation such as Malaysia. However, the volume of new properties added to the property market is only a fraction of the total volume of the property market. Is the conventional assumption of the relationship between property investment and construction supported by empirical data? This paper revisits the tripartite relationships between economic growths, property investment and construction activities with official Malaysian 2000Q1-2010Q4 quarterly time series data. The Granger causality tests are used to establish the causality runs from the GDP to the value of property transactions, and the growth of construction activities to GDP growth. The result is expected to be useful for policymakers and industrial practitioners in formulating industrial policies and corporate strategies.

The impact of tenure type on the desire for retirement village living

In 2005 17.3% of Australians were aged 60 years and older (Australian Bureau of Statistics). A consequence of this aging population is the increased use of self-contained independent living units (SCILU) in Retirement Villages by older Australians. The retirement village sector has thus become a significant sector within the residential property market. In seeking to determine the impact of tenure type on the desirability of RV living this paper first profiles a typical SCILU in Australia, before explaining and examining the various tenure types offered by the market. This paper concludes that the multiplicity of offerings of the SCILU product with respect to tenure type, when combined with deferred management fees and participation in capital gains/losses, may be contributing to a lack of clarity in what the SCILU product entails and the security of investment it offers. This perception is supported by litigated disputes and may be damaging the reputation, ongoing viability and desirability of SCILUs.

Reviewing the impact of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on international property markets and property professions

The global financial crisis that impacted on all world economies throughout 2008 and 2009. This impact has not been confined to the finance industries but has had a direct and indirect impact on the property industry worldwide from both an ownership and investment perspective. Property markets have experienced various levels of impact from this event, but universally the greatest impact has been on the traditional commercial and industrial property sectors from the investor perspective, with investment and superannuation funds reporting significant declines in the reported value of these investments. Despite the very direct impact of these declining property markets, the GFC has also had a very significant indirect impact on the various property professions and how these professions are now operating in this declining property market. Of particular interest is the comparison of the property market forecasts in late 2007 to the actual results in 2008/2009.

Will Queensland tort reform change valuation practice and valuers liability

It has been common practice over past property boom and bust cycles in Australia for financial institutions and property owners who have suffered a loss in the property downturn to sue valuers for negligence. Damages claimed are based on the price differential between the valuation at or nearing the peak of the market and the subsequent sale in the market downturn. However, the context of valuers liability has become increasingly complex as a result of statutory reforms introduced in response to the Review of the Law of Negligence Final Report 2002), in particular the introduction of Civil Liability Acts introducing proportionate liability provisions. Legislative reforms have had some positive outcomes for Valuers, however valuers need to continue to maintain high ethical standards, independence and professionalism in valuation practice.

Institutional and individual labor market discrimination based on hukou status : an artefactual field experiment

We study discrimination based on the hukou system that segregates citizens in groups of migrants and locals in urban China. We use an artefactual field experiment with a labor market framing. We recruit workers on their real labor market as experimental participants and investigate if official discrimination motivates individual discrimination based on hukou status. In our experimental results we observe discrimination based on the hukou characteristic: however, statistical discrimination does not seem to be the source of this, as status is exogeneous for our participants and migrants and locals behave similarly. Furthermore, discrimination increases between two experimental frameworks when motives for statistical discrimination are removed.

Whole life cycle costing for Malaysia high-rise residential building : a needs?

The continuous growth of high-rise residential properties indicates that there is a need for an effective property management system to provide a sustainable high-rise residential property development. As intensive as these studies are, they do not attempt to investigate the correlation between property management systems with the trends of Malaysia high-rise residential property development. By examining the trends and scenario of Malaysia high-rise residential property development, this paper aims to gain an understanding of impacts from the effectiveness of property management in this scope area. Findings from this scoping paper will assist in providing a greater understanding and possible solutions for the current Malaysian property management systems for the expanding high-rise residential unit market.

Assessment of the application of contingent valuation theory to bio-sequestered carbon

The issue of carbon sequestration rights has become topical following the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (United Nations 1992 at page 1414) and the subsequent Kyoto Protocol (United Nations Climate Change Secretariat 1998) which identified emissions trading as one of the mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Australian states have responded by creating a legal framework for the recognition of rights to bio-sequestered carbon. There is a lack of uniformity in the approach of each state to the recognition of these rights, which vary from the creation of new and novel interests in land to the adoption of more traditional rights such as a profit a prendre. Rights to bio-sequestered carbon are likely to have an impact on the utility, marketability, value and financing of rural land holdings. Despite the creation of the legal framework for recognition of rights to sequestrated carbon, there has been a delay in the introduction of a formalised carbon trading scheme in Australia. In the absence of an established carbon market, this paper addresses the applicability of contingent valuation theory to assess the value of bio-sequestered carbon rights to a rural land holder. Limitations and potential controversies associated with this application of contingent valuation theory are also addressed in this paper.

Defining sustainability requirements for design-build (DB) contractor selection in public sector projects

The design-build (DB) delivery system is an effective means of delivering a green construction project and selecting an appropriate contractor is critical to project success. Moreover, the delivery of green buildings requires specific design, construction and operation and maintenance considerations not generally encountered in the procurement of conventional buildings. Specifying clear sustainability requirements to potential contractors is particularly important in achieving sustainable project goals. However, many client/owners either do not explicitly specify sustainability requirements or do so in a prescriptive manner during the project procurement process. This paper investigates the current state-of-the-art procurement process used in specifying the sustainability requirements of the public sector in the USA construction market by means of a robust content analysis of 40 design-build requests for proposals (RFPs). The results of the content analysis indicate that the sustainability requirement is one of the most important dimensions in the best-value evaluation of DB contractors. Client/owners predominantly specify the LEED certification levels (e.g. LEED Certified, Silver, Gold, and Platinum) for a particular facility, and include the sustainability requirements as selection criteria (with specific importance weightings) for contractor evolution. Additionally, larger size projects tend to allocate higher importance weightings to sustainability requirements.This study provides public DB client/owners with a number of practical implications for selecting appropriate design-builders for sustainable DB projects.

The Law of Real Property Mortgages [2nd. Ed.]

This book examines the principles and practice of real estate mortgages in an easily accessible text referenced to all the Australian States. It specifically deals with the major theoretical and practical aspects of the land mortgage, including vitiating factors in formation, mortgagees’ powers and duties and mortgagors’ rights – both statutory and other – as well as assignment, insurance and discharge. It focuses exclusively on real estate mortgages and provides a thorough account of the law through analysis of the plethora of court decisions and statutory provisions in this area. Duncan and Dixon analyse the substance of the mortgage transaction from creation through to rights of enforcement. In its detailed consideration of the rights and obligations of mortgagors and mortgagees, it covers topics such as priorities and tacking, insurance, variation and assignment, rights of discharge, entry into possession, foreclosure and power of sale. In addition, the book contains a separate chapter on factors that may affect the validity and enforcement of a mortgage, together with separate consideration of a mortgagee’s right to enforce a guarantee provided on behalf of a mortgagor, and the rights and liabilities associated with a receivership regime initiated by